|Kicking Team Position||42|
|Kicking Team Probability||25%|
|Kicking Team Expected Pts From Own 42||2.71|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts||.68|
|Receiving Team Position (Onside)||58|
|Receiving Team Probability (Onside)||75%|
|Receiving Team Expected Pts From Opp 42||3.47|
|Receiving Team Net Expected Pts||2.60|
|Kicking Team Expected Pts (Normal)||0|
|Receiving Team Position (Normal)||25|
|Receiving Team Probability (Normal)||100%|
|Receiving Team Expected Pts From Own 25||1.90|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts (Onside) = .68-2.60||-1.93|
|Kicking Team Net Expected Pts (Normal)||-1.90|
|Advantage of Normal||.03|
(please allow for rounding adjustments)
So, yeah. That works a lot better in Excel, but hopefully you get the point.
A few other scenarios from Excel:
- If the kicking team has a 26% chance of recovery, as Brian cites in his post, there is no advantage to a deep kick (-1.90 expected points onside, -1.90 expected points normal).
- If the kicking team has a 25% chance of recovery, but the normal kick results in a drive starting at the receiving team's own 32 (maybe more likely with our kickers), there is a predicted .30 point advantage (-1.93 vs. -2.23) for an onside kick.
One more thing: as per the borrowed data, this assumes an average offense and defense (I've employed a DENARD Constant in my spreadsheet, but it is difficult to represent here).
In conclusion, this is as much an appeal to The Mathlete (and others) as it is an effort at meaningful contribution. I have no background in math or statistics, so if there are massive logical flaws in the above, please feel free to rip me in the comments.