Discovering Places Recruiting Matters (by MGoUser ericcarbs)

Submitted by ericcarbs on January 29th, 2014 at 1:41 PM

DISCOVERING PLACES RECRUITING MATTERS

MOD NOTE: This is posted on behalf of MGoUser ericcarbs, so please direct your questions to him in the comments below – LSA

METHOD:

I grabbed 247 Composite Ranking from 2002-2014 and #1 class was 50, #2 is 49, etc etc until #50 class is 1 point (if class is unranked, 0 points). Then for every year, I went back 4 previous recruiting classes (EX, for 2013 point total in paranthesis) and had RS seniors and seniors have a 4X multiplier (2010 and 2009), Junior or RS sophmores get a 3X(2011) , RS freshmen or sophmore a 2X (2012) and true freshmen a 1X (2013). (Reasoning: more experienced players should contribute more and usually do.)

Then I grabbed the results of the NC game, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 (formerly the Pac-10) ACC and SEC (Teams that competed for NC games from 2006-2012). Using the accumulated points, I showed how many points they had and where they ranked that year in the nation using this new point system.

Notes: I chose to stop at 2006 for winners of conferences because 247 composite stops in 2002 and than data can be skrewed if I didn't include 5 recruiting classes. This analysis doesn't include players leaving early, JC players (KSU winning Big 12 and Cam Newton mostly) being ranked lower, players not getting RS and for Michigan especially, players transferring or not qualifying academically (Demar Dorsey).

National Championship

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2012

Bama

ND

676

558

1

10

2011

Bama

LSU

637

630

4

5

2010

Auburn

Oregon

479

262

15

28

2009

Bama

Texas

498

621

13

2

2008

Florida

Oklahoma

599

564

7

10

2007

LSU

OSU

628

579

4

9

2006

Florida

OSU

610

607

6

8

             

BIG TEN

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2013

MSU

OSU

317

588

29

8

2012

Wisconsin

Nebraska

128

319

42

27

2011

Wisconsin

MSU

213

317

36

40

2010

Wisconsin

 

307

 

25

 

2010

MSU

 

133

 

46

 

2009

OSU

 

576

 

10

 

2008

OSU

 

567

 

9

 

2008

Penn State

 

545

 

11

 

2007

OSU

 

579

 

9

 

2006

OSU

 

607

 

8

 

             

SEC

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2013

Auburn

Mizzou

543

230

10

34

2012

Bama

Georgia

676

632

1

4

2011

LSU

Georgia

630

558

5

8

2010

Auburn

South Carolina

479

369

15

22

2009

Bama

Florida

498

597

13

4

2008

Florida

Bama

599

407

7

15

2007

LSU

Tenn

628

529

4

11

2006

Florida

Arkansas

610

315

6

23

             

ACC

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2013

FSU

Duke

608

0

6

N/A

2012

FSU

Georgia Tech

576

82

9

53

2011

Clemson

VT

453

351

18

22

2010

VT

FSU

339

555

23

11

2009

Georgia Tech

Clemson

149

464

42

14

2008

VT

Boston College

305

203

27

37

2007

VT

Boston College

245

271

33

31

2006

Wake Forest

Georgia Tech

11

205

60

34

             

Big 12

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2013

Baylor

 

135

 

41

 

2012

Kansas State

 

0

 

N/A

 

2012

Oklahoma

 

596

 

8

 

2011

Oklahoma State

 

274

 

27

 

2010

Oklahoma

Nebraska

488

206

13

33

2009

Texas

Nebraska

621

305

2

27

2008

Oklahoma

Mizzou

564

196

10

38

2007

Oklahoma

Mizzou

588

157

8

44

2006

Oklahoma

Nebraska

619

291

5

26

             

Pac-12 (10)

 

 

 

Points

Recruiting Rank

Year

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

Winner

Loser

2013

Stanford

Arizona State

423

#N/A

18

N/A

2012

Stanford

UCLA

405

469

21

13

2011

Oregon

UCLA

392

483

21

15

2010

Oregon

 

262

 

28

 

2009

Oregon

 

237

 

32

 

2008

USC

 

686

 

1

 

2007

Arizona State

 

#N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

USC

 

687

 

1

 

2006

USC

 

662

 

1

 

2006

Cal

 

196

 

37

 

RESULTS

Teams that compete in NC games have constantly great recruiting (Top 15 for everyone except Oregon). SEC and Big 12 teams usually have great rankings for those who compete in Title Game.

Since 2010, low ranked Big Ten teams began winning the Big Ten which is around the same time the Big Ten began performing poorly in Bowl Games. Might have some correlation but just an observation.

Lastly, I showed Michigan points and ranking in the nation. Results - Michigan is always ranked highly and were in their peak during Rich Rod/ Hoke beginning. However, many of Carr's players transferred when Rich Rod was hired and many of his recruits didn't pan out (poor recruiting and scouting, who knows) and might explain why Hoke won Sugar Bowl right off the bat cause alot of seniors stayed and now we are experiencing the "rebuilding" stage.

POINT COMPARISIONS:

Here are the yearly comparisons of point totals using two programs which typically recruit comparably to Michigan. You’ll note for Michigan that the peak was in 2007 and the totals have been decreasing since, partly due to transfers. Rich Rod didn't have a "bare cupboard" until they all transferred. Although the numbers under Hoke have decreased further, retention has been much better, so soon this trend should reverse. As mentioned, now is when the rebuilding is occurring.

 photo MichOSUComposite_zps23d84324.png  photo MichNDComposite_zpsd228c3ba.png  photo MichOthersComposite_zpsaeba598e.png

Comments

Wolfman

January 31st, 2014 at 3:49 AM ^

"Rich Rod didn't have a bare cupboard until they all transferred."  WTF kind of bullshit is that? The fifth year seniors chose not to play, our best "purported lber"was a kid from GR named Over Easy, he had one returning starter on offense and a walk-on qb who, when throwing the ball did not make it easy to decide if he threw or punted the ball. NO!!!!! you are correct. He was fucking loaded. What a waste of space.  Next time you write, dig deep and attempt a modicum of objectivity. This was bullshit at the ma'v. Hell, the only decent season Brandon't lackey has had was with RR's players.

MichiganTeacher

January 31st, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^

Thanks for the data and graphs.

Since Wolfman's is the only other comment here, I'll add mine. I think you've got a useful and informative system here. Ironic that Wolfman calls for objectivity when all that you have done is objective. Good stuff.