Charting MBB Remaining Games

Submitted by mistersuits on January 18th, 2013 at 9:36 AM

 

CHART - Remaining basketball games schedule:

 

Rank Opponent Difficulty KenPom RPI Result
- MICHIGAN 5 7 3 -
1 @Minnesota 7 8 8 83-75 
2 @Indiana 7 4 13  
3 Indiana 9 4 13  
4 @Ohio 16 10 26 53-56 
5 @MSU 17 18 20  
6 Ohio 18 10 26  
7 MSU 19 18 20  
8 N.C. State 19 27 11 79-72 
9 @Wisconsin 24 11 45  
10 #Pittsburgh 33 9 62 67-62
11 @Illinois 34 63 16  
12 #Kansas St. 38 39 40 71-57
13 Illinois 40 63 16  
14 Iowa 56 34 78 95-67
15 Arkansas 70 66 73 80-67
16 #WVU 80 94 79 81-66
17 @NW 85 90 105 94-66
18 @Purdue 85 79 116  
19 NW 98 90 105  
20 Purdue 98 79 116  
21 Nebraska 120 162 77 62-47
22 WMU 132 159 104 73-41
23 @Bradley 136 138 175  74-66
24 @Penn St. 160 201 166  
25 CMU 179 205 152 88-73
26 Cleveland St. 180 242 117 77-47
27 Penn St. 184 201 166  
28 EMU 257 288 226 93-54
29 IUPUI 293 312 274 91-54
30 Binghampton 344 343 344 67-39
31 Slippery Rock NR NR NR 100-62

 

Notes:

  • Wisconsin and NC State climb up.
  • Illinois tumbles.
  • Jury is still out on MSU but will know significantly more in next two weeks.
  • Michigan has now played 4 of their hardest 10 games.
  • Penn St be bad.
  • Adidas jerseys are worse.

Path to B1G Conference Title:

  • Michigan will not play another team with as much raw athleticism as Minnesota in the regular season (Indiana is probably more talented but not bouncier).
  • Finish 6-3 or better on the road. To do that, Michigan must win @Illinois, @Purdue, and @Penn St. Then they have to take one of three from @Indiana, @MSU, @Wisconsin. That seems doable.
  • Run the table at home or maybe just one loss.
  • I think it's still easier for Wisconsin to get four losses than Indiana at this point, so the Badger's road win there will definitely have been a major deciding factor at the end of the year.
  • My prediction is any team finishing 15-3 wins outright, 14-4 gives a shot at a split. I don't think Indiana will lose 4 more games in the conference so I disagree with the idea that 13-5 multi-way title will happen again.

Comments

Needs

January 18th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^

Really hard to recruit to PSU. No tradition. Dead, empty arena. Seemingly no institutional commitment and minimal fan support. Isolated location. Areas they exploit for football (eastern PA, NJ, Maryland, upcountry Virginia) are filled with better basketball options.

Indonacious

January 18th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^

Just to add to the already great post,

The sagarin rankings of the big10 teams are...

michigan 4
minny 6
indiana 7
osu 12
wisconsin 12
msu 20
iowa 43
illinois 59
nw 85
purdue 95
neb 121
psu 195

A take-away from this seems to be that the sagarin/kenpom like indiana, osu, and wisconsin a lot more than rpi does.

Another interesting note is that sagarin now has us favored in every game except at Indiana where we are roughly 1 point underdogs.

Other notable teams,

pitt 16
nc state 19
ksu 40
 

SeattleWolverine

January 18th, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^

Illinois is too high in the RPI. They have some good wins but their current play is terrible. Not sure that RPI has it right on Ohio as low as 26, Wisconsin at 45 etc.

The game @Wisconsin is now looking to be very important with them already one loss ahead of the field and having already played @Indiana and not having to play @Michigan. They aren't the best B1G team but they are positioned to compete for the title. 

We should be 7-1 heading into the brutal 4 game stretch that will probaby determine if we win the conference.

DeepBlue83

January 19th, 2013 at 8:52 AM ^

I think the games @ Wisconsin, @ MSU and home vs IU will be the tipping point games that will determine how we finish (with the game @ IU considered a very likely loss). If we can win two of those three (with one of the two almost having to be Indiana), we have a very good chance of finishing first. At this point, @ Ill is looking like a game we probably can't afford to lose. They have some athletes and could be dangerous, but overall they just aren't that talented.

Ler

January 20th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

I agree with everything that you said, especially that 15-3 will get us an outright championship and 14-4 will get us a split. In my opinion, the games @Illinois and @Purdue are the most crucial games remaining. We absolutely must win both of these games. I personally think that we will hold serve at home and that we will win at least one of the games @Wisky, @MSU or @Indiana. If we can beat Purdue and Illinois on the road, I think we go 15-3 and win the championship outright.