The Bye Week Corollary

Submitted by hart20 on October 13th, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Soulfire21, went over Debunking the Bye Week Myth earlier this week, showing that in general, teams coming off of a bye week usually lose. From 2000 to 2010, teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .480, a shade less than .500. However, Big Ten teams are noticeably worse when coming off of a bye week; Big Ten teams have a winning percentage of .350 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams are below the national average by .150. By default, nationally, teams playing teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .520 and teams playing Big Ten teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .650.

Although the average team performs worse when coming off of a bye week, I wondered if there was an exception. Some coaches have their teams perform better than average after bye weeks and some coaches have their teams perform worse than average, right? This also means that some coaches have to be better than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week and some coaches have to be worse than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week.

Before I started writing this diary, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have a below average record playing after a bye week and that Brady Hoke would have an above average record playing against teams who were coming off of bye weeks. I had no rational reason for these predictions. I just don’t like Dantonio and I like Brady Hoke.

My method for checking my predictions was quite simple, just look at the W/L record of Mark Dantonio (as a Head Coach) coming off of a Bye Week and then look at the record of Brady Hoke (as a head coach) playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week.

 

Mark Dantonio Coming Off of Bye Weeks

 

Year

Team

Opponent

W/L

Score

Dantonio Final Record

Opp. Final Record

2004

Cincinnati

Memphis

W

49-10

7-5

8-4

2004

Cincinnati

South Florida

W

45-23

7-5

4-7

2005*

Cincinnati

Miami (OH)

L

44-16

4-7

7-4

2005*

Cincinnati

South Florida

L

31-16

4-7

6-6

2006

Cincinnati

West Virginia

L

42-24

8-5

11-2

2007

MSU

N/A

N/A

N/A

7-6

N/A

2008

MSU

Penn St.

L

49-18

9-4

11-2

2009

MSU

N/A

N/A

N/A

6-7

N/A

2010

MSU

Purdue

W

35-31

11-2

4-8

 

*10 day bye week instead of a full 14 day bye week

 

Interesting Notes

-Mark Dantonio, as a head coach, is 3-4 when coming off of a bye week. That is good for a winning percentage of 0.428. That puts Dantonio below the national average by .052 but above the Big Ten average by .078.

-As MSU’s head coach, Dantonio is 1-1 coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .500, .020 above the national average and .150 above the Big Ten average.

-Biggest loss: 31 points in 2008. MSU vs. PSU

-Smallest loss: 15 points in 2005. Cincinnati vs. USF

-Average loss margin: 23 points

-Biggest win: 39 points in 2004. Cincinnati vs. Memphis

-Smallest win: 4 points in 2010. MSU vs. Purdue

-Average win margin:  21.7 points

-Dantonio is 2-0 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .520 above the national average and .650 above the Big Ten average.

-Dantonio is 1-4 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of .200, .280 below the national average and .150 below the Big Ten average.

 

 

 

Brady Hoke Playing Against Teams Who Are Coming Off of a Bye Week

 

Year

Team

Opponent

W/L

Score

Brady Hoke’s Final Record

Opp. Final Record

2003

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

4-8

N/A

2004

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

2-9

N/A

2005

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

4-7

N/A

2006

Ball St.

Buffalo

W

55-25

5-7

2-10

2007

Ball St.

West. Kentucky

W

35-12

7-6

7-5

2007*

Ball St.

Toledo

W

41-20

7-6

5-7

2008

Ball St.

Indiana

W

42-20

12-1

3-9

2008*

Ball St.

North. Illinois

W

45-14

12-1

6-6

2008*

Ball St.

West. Michigan

W

45-22

12-1

9-3

2009*

San Diego St.

Southern Utah

W

35-19

4-8

5-6

2009

San Diego St.

UNLV

L

28-24

4-8

5-7

2010

San Diego St.

New Mexico

W

30-20

9-4

1-11

2010*

San Diego St.

UNLV

W

48-14

9-4

2-11

*10 day bye-week

 

Interesting Notes

-Brady Hoke is 9-1 (!) when playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .900 (!). He’s outperforming the national average by .380 and the Big Ten average by .250.

- Biggest/Smallest/Average/Only loss:  4 points in 2009. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Biggest win: 34 points in 2010. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Smallest win: 10 points in 2010. SDSU vs. New Mexico

-Average win margin:  23.3 points

-Brady Hoke is 6-1 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of .857, .337 above the national average and .207 above the Big Ten average.

-Brady Hoke is 3-0 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .480 above the national average and .350 above the Big Ten average.

 

 

Upon taking a closer look, Dantonio outperforming the Big Ten is not very impressive for 3 reasons. Reason #1: Saying you’re doing better than the worst is inherently not impressive. You’re still doing worse than the best. Reason #2:  2 of his wins came in 2004 at Cincinnati, his first year as a head coach. After 2004, Dantonio lost every single game coming off of a bye week after until last year against Purdue. Even in that game, MSU barely managed to pull out the victory against a bad, 4-8 Purdue team. He clearly struggles in the games after bye weeks. Reason #3: Dantonio is very, very bad after bye weeks when he playing against teams with a winning record (1-4).

For the good guys, Brady Hoke is great when playing against teams coming off of a bye week. His only loss against a team coming off of a bye week was by 4 points. Although most of his wins came against teams who ended their seasons with losing records, he is undefeated against teams with winning records (3-0).  He easily outperforms both the national and Big Ten averages.

Bye weeks are of no advantage to MSU, and actually might hurt MSU’s chance of victory. MSU coming off of a bye week is more of an advantage to Michigan than to anyone else.  Mark Dantonio’s ineptness playing after a bye week coupled with Brady Hoke’s adeptness playing against teams coming off of a bye week point only to good things for Michigan.

 

 

P.S. This is my first Diary, so let me know if there is anything I should change, not change, do, or not do in the future. I’ll probably write something similar to this for the Purdue game, looking at how Brady Hoke fares when playing after bye weeks. 

Comments

go16blue

October 13th, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^

When I scrolled down to Hoke's record: "lolwut"

But I still think this favors MSU. Every year is seems they unveil a new gimmick on offense to beat Michigan, and the success of this gimmick often plays a big role in deciding the game. The fact that they have an extra week to iron out this new formation/set of plays/etc helps them more than most bye weeks would. On the other hand, you might be on to something with how Hoke's teams do against bye week teams. It could be coincidence, but who knows. Here's hoping you're right.

BlueMars24

October 13th, 2011 at 5:01 PM ^

first diary. I really liked it. Keep it up.

Suprised Hoke is that good when the other team has a bye. Looking forward to seeing if he has the same juice when his team has a bye.

ross03

October 13th, 2011 at 5:30 PM ^

Very interesting.  It would be really interesting to also see their records agains the spread to see if they were acutally over/under performing expectations or if they just happened to get hard/easy draws after their byes.  Not sure how easy that would be to add but some food for thought if you have a desire to continue to expand on your thoughts.

Nice job.

hart20

October 13th, 2011 at 5:45 PM ^

thought about looking at the spread, but I thought of it too late. I was already putting the final touches on and getting ready to post it. If the spread is still available, I'll incorporate it into the next diary.

Soulfire21

October 13th, 2011 at 5:58 PM ^

Thanks for the shoutout.

This is a great first diary.  If anything it gives me something to feel all warm and fuzzy about, hah.  Hoke's 9-1 record is shockingly good.

MaizeNBlueTexan

October 13th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^

Here's something you should feel warm and fuzzy about.  This is how I imagine Michigan States bye week went.

YAY! We added 1 new wrinkle to our ineffective offense.

Holy shit...Michigan just went 28-0 beast mode against NW on the road.

Holy shit...that OSU-Nebraska game...uhh...how did we only put up 10 on them?

/burn couch

gbdub

October 13th, 2011 at 7:40 PM ^

One other item that might be interesting to look at: what sort of teams do you usually play after a bye week? It seems like, when possible, teams try to schedule their bye before a big game, on the assumption that the extra week helps. You'd think that this would lower their winning percentage just due to the quality of opponent.

Is this intuition true? Or is the distribution of byes more random than I'm giving it credit for?

hart20

October 13th, 2011 at 8:09 PM ^

be interesting to look at across the board. I'd want to see how the quality of a bye week opponent breaks down conference by conference, and if there is any noticable pattern of quality, even though the assignment is supposed to be random. That seems like something for either next week, waiting for the bowl game, or for the off-season though.