BtN - Big 10 Team Ranks - Week 7

Submitted by The Mathlete on October 21st, 2009 at 1:35 PM
All numbers are points per game better than average. For more detailed questions on how the numbers come about, click here.

Expected Points - Offense
Expected Points - Offense
Off G Expected Points Actual Points Diff Drives
Michigan 6 24.64 30.50 5.86 12.33
Penn State 6 20.07 25.50 5.43 9.83
Purdue 7 24.53 27.43 2.90 12.43
Michigan State 6 23.72 26.17 2.45 11.83
Wisconsin 6 23.84 25.67 1.83 11.50
Ohio State 7 22.50 23.14 0.64 10.71
Northwestern 6 22.31 22.67 0.36 11.67
Iowa 6 25.89 23.67 -2.23 11.50
Minnesota 7 22.40 20.00 -2.40 10.86
Indiana 6 23.82 20.67 -3.15 11.33
Illinois 5 18.95 9.60 -9.35 10.40

Michigan and Penn State both dominate the points vs expected metric.  What is interesting is the huge gap in drives per game.  Michigan's pace is worth 2.5 more drives per game than Penn State's.

Expected Points - Defense
Expected Points - Defense
Def G Expected Points Actual Points Diff Drives
Penn State 6 19.83 7.17 -12.67 10.00
Ohio State 7 22.12 13.43 -8.70 11.57
Iowa 6 19.58 11.00 -8.58 10.83
Michigan 6 26.36 23.50 -2.86 12.67
Purdue 7 26.82 25.43 -1.39 12.57
Northwestern 6 23.80 24.67 0.86 11.83
Wisconsin 6 20.78 22.00 1.22 11.17
Michigan State 6 22.79 25.00 2.21 11.50
Minnesota 7 20.39 23.29 2.90 10.71
Indiana 6 21.45 24.83 3.38 10.83
Illinois 5 21.65 29.20 7.55 10.40

Penn State, aided by their weak schedule, dominates expected points defense, and ranks second only to Alabama nationally at nearly -13 points per game.  The drives/game theme holds here as Michigan's defense is facing over 2.5 more drives per game than Penn State's defense is facing.

Offense - Season+
Offense - Season+
Off G Value Rush Pass Yards
Penn State 6 6.21 2.38 3.83 409.83
Michigan 6 4.00 4.02 -0.02 373.50
Michigan State 6 2.25 -1.34 3.59 402.33
Purdue 7 1.84 -0.29 2.12 399.14
Wisconsin 6 1.37 1.45 -0.08 386.50
Minnesota 7 0.50 0.23 0.27 289.14
Ohio State 7 -1.15 -0.31 -0.84 336.14
Indiana 6 -2.70 -1.93 -0.77 359.33
Iowa 6 -3.11 -1.42 -1.69 356.83
Northwestern 6 -4.59 -4.49 -0.10 369.33
Illinois 5 -5.36 -0.14 -5.23 319.00

The Big 10's rep as a poor offensive conference continues to hold for this year.   I will get into it more below with the conference rankings, but Penn State's +6 barely cracks the top 20 nationally.  Michigan comes in at a solid #2, driven completely from the conference's #1 rated rush offense.

Defense - Season+
Defense - Season+
Def G Value Plays Rush Pass Yards
Iowa 6 11.60 61.17 3.00 8.60 278.17
Ohio State 7 9.65 68.14 1.59 8.06 278.57
Penn State 6 8.18 57.33 3.83 4.35 244.83
Wisconsin 6 2.55 59.83 3.10 -0.55 336.50
Purdue 7 2.46 72.57 -0.42 2.88 367.71
Michigan 6 1.85 71.00 -2.27 4.12 389.17
Michigan State 6 0.88 70.17 2.31 -1.43 362.50
Minnesota 7 -1.98 73.14 0.71 -2.69 394.29
Indiana 6 -4.41 70.17 -1.43 -2.97 382.17
Northwestern 6 -6.17 65.17 -0.26 -5.91 366.00
Illinois 5 -6.75 66.80 -3.93 -2.82 422.00

Here is where you see Penn State's expected points rank knocked down, but still strong.  When adjusting for competition, Iowa's defense is 2 points better than anyone else in the conference and Michigan sicks back in the middle of the conference.  The pass defense is in a virtual tie with PSU for third at +4 per game but the real struggle is in the rush defense, over -2 points per game and 10th in the conference with only Illinois being worse.

ST - All - Per Game
ST - All - Per Game
Team G Total Kick KO KR Punt PR
Ohio State 7 0.93 0.74 0.11 0.55 0.41 -0.89
Minnesota 7 0.87 0.37 -0.62 0.26 0.68 0.18
Iowa 6 0.45 0.50 -0.45 -0.23 0.56 0.07
Michigan State 6 0.36 0.49 -0.53 0.14 0.02 0.26
Michigan 6 0.29 0.79 -0.89 0.38 0.80 -0.79
Wisconsin 6 -0.87 0.19 -1.10 -0.43 0.63 -0.15
Penn State 6 -1.53 -0.56 -0.37 -0.22 -0.24 -0.14
Illinois 5 -1.61 -0.56 -0.32 -0.31 0.66 -1.07
Purdue 7 -2.05 1.16 -0.77 -1.11 -0.60 -0.73
Indiana 6 -2.07 -1.32 -0.93 0.90 -0.70 -0.02
Northwestern 6 -2.75 0.54 -0.71 -1.30 -0.53 -0.76

A couple of the ST categories I am still working on getting them index correctly, but the delta's and ranks are good.  Michigan is very good in Kick (1st), KR (3rd) and Punt (1st), and bad in KO (9th), PR (9th).

Team - Turnovers
Team - Turnovers
Team Fum Lost Int Thrown Fum Forced Passes Int Total
Ohio State -8.05 -20.59 14.05 44.67 30.08
Iowa -3.29 -36.61 22.10 41.56 23.76
Minnesota -15.69 -22.92 34.76 24.65 20.80
Indiana -13.48 -16.38 26.52 15.98 12.64
Northwestern -29.25 -12.25 23.90 25.45 7.85
Michigan State -19.06 -18.02 16.78 15.87 -4.43
Michigan -19.37 -18.37 7.12 22.63 -7.99
Wisconsin -14.47 -33.83 16.63 22.72 -8.95
Penn State -11.31 -19.97 3.56 14.50 -13.22
Illinois -17.04 -22.47 11.54 2.64 -25.33
Purdue -37.05 -38.92 32.39 15.73 -27.85

Here is a new chart for this week.  Shows which teams have seen the most value gain or loss from turnover plays.  Even after the Buckeye's meltdown at Purdue last weekend, the Buckeye's are still +30 on the season (and Purdue is -28).  Michigan is a down a little over a TD (-8) due to turnovers on the season but Penn State is even worse, coming in at -13, both due largely to a gap on fumbles lost vs fumbles recovered.

Conference Rankings
Conference Rankings
Conf Total Offense Defense ST Pen Yards D Yards
SEC 6.24 2.52 4.56 -0.72 -0.26 375.62 324.89
Big XII 4.97 2.14 3.10 -0.12 -0.29 403.34 355.41
PAC 10 3.97 1.41 2.96 -0.25 -0.31 368.70 355.50
ACC 2.08 1.72 1.64 -1.45 0.33 354.08 352.10
Big East 1.00 0.60 1.57 -1.18 0.04 366.68 354.71
Big Ten 0.72 -0.29 1.85 -0.74 -0.21 366.38 349.40
Mtn West -1.12 -1.41 0.68 -0.54 0.31 356.69 357.13
WAC -4.21 -0.17 -3.09 -1.00 0.11 390.12 390.67
Ind -5.03 0.56 -5.21 -1.16 1.57 351.94 384.86
C USA -7.63 -1.96 -3.95 -1.55 -0.33 357.29 406.98
MAC -8.06 -2.49 -3.01 -2.64 0.17 343.96 386.84
Sun Belt -10.00 -3.05 -5.44 -1.70 0.39 360.50 414.59

Big 10 drops down to 6th in the overall conference rankings.  They are the only BCS conference that grades out below zero in either offense or defense with a -.3 per game per team on offense.



























Comments

colin

October 21st, 2009 at 4:21 PM ^

there's more variance between defenses than between offenses in the conference rankings, which meshes with what I've seen elsewhere. I assume that means that talent, especially collective talent, matters more on defense than on offense. And it may well be true that defense wins championships in college football.

The Mathlete

October 21st, 2009 at 4:42 PM ^

This is actually a Big 10 phenomenon. Across the FBS the variance is pretty similar, but as the conference rankings show, the Big 10 is much better on defense than on offense. The difference comes in because the Big 10 has several elite defenses but no elite offenses, the middle and end of the rankings are relatively similar.

bluebyyou

October 21st, 2009 at 5:26 PM ^

It would be very interesting to view the data in a couple of weeks and only use in-conference games. This would eliminate PSU's easy non-conference schedule and the likes of DSU, which while good for stats, skew the data all over the place.