Bracket News: Sunday Edition

Submitted by jamiemac on March 22nd, 2009 at 12:16 PM

I'd like to thank the Texas Longhorns and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers for saving my ass. Chalk ruled yesterday. Not good news for somebody who invested in seven underdogs. But, with the Horns and Hilltoppers nearly upseting higher seeds, the final two dogs cashed, winning me a little money back.

A lot of the dogs I liked weren't even competitive, making for about as uncomfortable day of wagering as you can find. Somehow, I managed a 4-4 record. I breathed a sigh of relief just to get that record.

I misread the action yesterday. I ignored what we had learned for most of the season, that being there's about a handful of power teams in the country, that have played at a level a couple rungs up the ladder than everyone else. This is only a wide open tournament if you limit your group to, say, six teams. Anyway, the teams that have been part of that group all season eviserated their foes yesterday with four double digit win and covers. Duke was to the only club of the crew not to cover their spread, but in Texas that had the m ost established and talented foe. Of the rest, Michigan and LSU were competitive and could have, but were done ultimately, but strong closing kicks. Texas A/M and Maryland were annihilated from the opening tap. Whatever Greivas Vasquez had in mind mouthy off to Memphis clearly backfired.

I have tons of Michigan thoughts, but need some more time to put something together thats not a choatic mess. There's all sorts of post mortem every in the M blogosphere, so give it a tour for your Sunday reading. I know folks have been following my picks, so I want to use this space to quickly throw them out there.

*** Syracuse -2 over Arizona State. A game that students of zone defense will love. Both teams specialize in it and will face huge challenges today. Can ASU slow the explosive Big East attack? Can Syracuse stymie James Hardin, who is expected to be a top-5 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Syracuse has scored at least 80 points 21 times this season, going 18-3 in those games. The Devils allow just 60 points per game. You'll be able to figure out who is winning the pace game by tracking thos numbers. The Orange are 9-6 in their lower scoring games, so they can win at that pace. I dont think the Devils can win at the Orange's pace though. ASU's zone will have its success, but the Orange are balanced and diverse on offense. They'll find enough answers. I'm not sure the Devils can beyond Hardin. Plus, this Orange team came togther in the Big East Tournament. It actually goes back to the Seton Hall game, a chippy game with a couple of fights. This club has been steeled togehter like no Orange team we've seen in recent seasons. Finally, this loaded roster is playing with a sense of team purpose. They win today and will be a dangerous out for Oklahoma next weekend.

*** Oklahoma State +8.5 over Pitt. What was that I said about misreading the board because I ignored how much better the cream was than everyone else? Sometimes you just dont learn. Look, I was surprised by just how poorly ETSU played and still had a chance to beat mighty Pitt. That Panthers have never been great tournament favorites and for whatever reason their style lends itself to trouble this time of year. No Sugarcoat. The Cowboys have been trending upwards for an entire month and have a ton of offense. I think they can showcase enough of it and push the tempo to take minimize the interior advantage of Pitt to stay in this one.

*** Dayton +8 over Kansas. The Hawks needed everything in their bag to stay a few steps ahead of North Dakota State the other day. The offensive going will much tougher to sled today against the D-minded Flyers. Dayton loves to bring the game down to an ugly level. They would fit right in with the Big 10. I was impressed by them on Friday. West Virginia was a KenPom darling, but Dayton was able to exert its style and will and make a team that at times took my breath away this year, into a typical-offense lacking Bob Huggins team. Until last season, KU would eventually give us a typical March clunker. I think Dayton shows us the way to that today.

*** Wisco +4 Xavier. It was good to see an ACC team get a dose we Big 10 teams get at least a couple times a year: Old school street fights with Wisconsin. Wasn't that a vintage Wisconsin game the other night with their win over Florida State. They use that style to compete every year. National pundits hammer the league because they just dont give the Badgers respect. Just epinion. I think they give Xavier a dose of that today and this one goes down to the wire similar to the FSU game from Friday.

*** CSU +3 over Arizona. Better late than never with the Vikings. Man, do I regret not pulling that trigger Friday night. Same situation happened to me last year with Siena. All week, I loved them over Vandy, but had this bizarre last second doubt and didn't bet it. Siena rolled. I grabbed them in the second round, and they could come through. I hope this late-to-the-bandwagon syndrome nets a different result today. It's 50/50 CSU is relentless. I dont think the Wildcats are tough to enough to scrape 40 full minutes with the Vikings. Also: Did you know the CSU Viking mascot is named Magnus.?

I have zero idea who I like in the other three games. But, five bets should keep me occupied until then.



March 22nd, 2009 at 12:48 PM ^

So I took a hit yesterday, going 2 of 5 (thank you, Texas), but I'm up on the tourney as a whole, so I'm back for a little more action today. There are a couple of games where I've honestly got no idea who to like, but here's my take:

***Syracuse -3 vs. Arizona State***
I learned my lesson yesterday on overestimating the ability of the Pac-10 to keep it close. I like 'Cuse to win, and I'm not willing to pay to protect myself against a 1 or 2 point game. Pretty much everything jamiemac says up there applies.

***Wisconsin to win +140 v. Xavier***
I think Wisconsin can pull this one out, as Xavier is a weak team. I'd have to pay -115 to get 3.5 points, in case of a close loss, which makes no sense mathematically. Either you like Xavier to cover here, which I don't, or you take the big payday on a Badger victory.

***Oklahoma St. +9.5 vs. Pitt***
I had to pay -115 to get this, but at least it's at 9.5. I honestly think that Oklahoma State can win this game (and have it happening in my bracket), but I'm trying to play conservative today (that +375 looked very tempting, let me tell you). Should be a close one, and fun as hell to watch.

***Over 149 Marquette v. Missouri***
I bet against Marquette last round and paid for it. Now that Dominic James is back, I'm not sure how to feel about this team. On the other hand, I don't trust any Big XII team this round (note the lack of a bet on Kansas), so the only bet I like is for this one to go high. The Tigers are definitely capable of running, and I think that the energy James brings to the court will keep this one up-tempo.

I may end up taking something else at 5:00, depending on how the morning shapes up. I like how Syracuse is finishing the first half. And I want to thank jamiemac again for his great diary and analysis. It makes me feel like less of a deviant.


March 22nd, 2009 at 2:22 PM ^

I just realized that you took the dog in 4 of your 5 today, jamiemac. Gutsy, especially after yesterday. I wish you the best, buddy.