Poinsetta Bowl, San Diego, 8pm
Boise St vs TCU. Lines, TCU -3, O/U 45
Ok, so Saturday's Bowl Chronicles was a wet blanket. Talk about lousy predictions. But, there is plenty of Bowl Season left and time in order to get some of those losses back.
Tonight, we have a game that really deserves a New Year's Day spotlight. It certainly has more juice to it than the VT-Cincy Orange Bowl.
A lot pundits seem to feel that TCU is the play tonight. After all, they held powerful offenses like BYU and Utah down and held Oklahoma to a season low in points. Conventional wisdom says the kids from Boise has yet to see a defense the likes of the Horned Frogs.
However, Boise's defense is every bit as good. In fact, I feel this is one the school's better teams because it is more stout on defense than ever before.
Both defenses are team strengths. And, there is not an advantage either way. TCU is better up front, but Boise has a better secondary, paricularily at the corners.
The advantage in this game comes offensively, and I feel Boise's O is much better. The game could develop into a good old fashioned taffy pull. If that the case, I'll take the team with better playmakers. To me, that edge rests with Boise and Ian Johnson, John Avery and Kellen Moore.
Bowl teams ranging from Oklahoma, Utah and Colorado State were able to run the ball on TCU. I expect Boise and their multiple headed rushing attack to move the chains and allow Moore enough room to get the passing game going. I like TCU's QB Dalton, but Moore is more explosive. Another edge to Boise in what ought to be a close to fest slugfest.
TCU's meal ticket on D is their ability to sack the QB, but Boise's OL has kept Moore clean most of the year. I think they can handle this challenge.
I see Boise having an edge in team speed and offensive playmakers. And, while everyone seems to be touting TCU's defense, they are forgetting that the Broncos can D it up as well. Boise will make enough plays on O to squeeze by and get a great win for the program.
The Pick: Boise +3.....2 Units.....i think we have a false favorite in this one. The Broncos should be favored, but the public is on TCU because of their performances in the MWC showdowns. One thing to look for as the game gets going: Boise always has tricks up their sleeves. They might not run the Statue of Liberty again, but you know they will hurt TCU with a gimmick or two. In an expected close game, that might end up being the difference.