Big Ten Recruiting Rankings with projected star values

Submitted by go16blue on April 17th, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Ed-S: Bumped to diary. Much of the content is from Ace's but there's good work done here.

Some people have been asking for this change for a while, so I decided to make it as a seperate post. I know it's not a very big deal, but it's a very quick process so I figured why not.

I took Ace's Big Ten Recruiting Rankings and applied a simple method to project NR recruits in an effort to make the rankings more accurate. The vast majority of NR recruits will have rankings by the end of the recruiting cycle, so with this in mind I gave them the star values I deemed appropriate. If a NR recruit was given a 4-star ranking by one site, the NR is substituted for with a 3-star ranking. If a NR recruit is a 3-star to one site, he is given a 2-star ranking. The lone recruit who was an NR across the board was given 1.5 stars. This incorporates the fact that a site doesn't like the NR recruit as much, but remains relatively realistic, as there are hardly any recruits with a 2 star difference across sites. The NR is replaced by the projected ranking number, in parenthesis. 

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings

Rank

School

#

Rivals Avg

Scout Avg

24/7 Avg

ESPN Avg

Avg Avg^

1

Michigan

17

3.76

4.06

3.76

3.88

3.87

2

Ohio State

9

4.00

3.89

3.78

3.78

3.86

3

Notre Dame

10

3.30

3.50

3.70

3.80

3.58

4

Penn State

8

3.44

3.19

3.31

3.44

3.35

5

Michigan State

7

3.29

3.14

3.14

3.14

3.18

6

Nebraska

4

3.75

3.50

3.25

3.50

3.50

7

Iowa

3

3.33

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.08

8

Wisconsin

3

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

9

Illinois

4

2.75

2.75

2.50

2.25

2.56

10

Northwestern

1

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

11

Minnesota

1

3.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.75

12

Indiana

0

-

-

-

-

-

13

Purdue

0

-

-

-

-

-

^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous three columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly (go16blue: to save time I just used the rounded numbers for the averages).

#1 Michigan - 17 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Patrick Kugler

OL

PA

4

5

4

4

Shane Morris

QB

MI

4

5

4

4

Dymonte Thomas

S

OH

4

5

4

4

Kyle Bosch

OL

IL

4

4

4

4

Jake Butt

TE

OH

4

4

4

4

Chris Fox

OL

CO

4

4

4

4

Ben Gedeon

LB

OH

4

4

4

4

Mike McCray

LB

OH

4

4

4

4

Logan Tuley-Tillman

OL

IL

4

4

4

4

Wyatt Shallman

ATH

MI

4

4

4

3

Taco Charlton

DE

OH

4

3

4

4

David Dawson

OL

MI

4

4

4

4

Jourdan Lewis

CB

MI

4

4

4

4

Gareon Conley

CB

OH

3

4

3

4

DeVeon Smith

RB

OH

3

4

3

4

Jaron Dukes

WR

OH

3

4

3

4

Khalid Hill

TE

MI

3

3

3

3

All but two Michigan commits—Wyatt Shallman and Khalid Hill—get four stars from ESPN, with 11 earning a spot in the ESPN 150. Hill is now the only commit who doesn't receive a four-star rating from at least one recruiting service, while 11 are consensus four-stars-or-better.

UPDATE: Thanks to Twitter follower chris_connon for pointing out that David Dawson, Jourdan Lewis, and Jaron Dukes all got upgraded to four stars on Scout. Michigan now has a Scout average over 4 and the highest combined average of any B1G school.

#2 Ohio State - 9 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Cameron Burrows

CB

OH

5

4

4

4

Jalin Marshall

ATH

OH

4

5

5

4

Marcus Baugh

TE

CA

4

4

4

4

Evan Lisle

OL

OH

4

4

4

4

Billy Price

DT

OH

4

4

4

4

Eli Woodard

CB

NJ

4

4

4

4

Ezekiel Elliott

RB

MO

4

4

3

4

Jayme Thompson

S

OH

4

3

3

4

Tracy Sprinkle

DE

OH

3

3

3

(2)

The Buckeyes got a commitment from in-state DE Tracy Sprinkle today, giving them their first non-four-star commit.

#3 Notre Dame - 10 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Hunter Bivin

OL

KY

4

4

4

4

Steven Elmer

OL

MI

4

4

4

4

Malik Zaire

QB

OH

4

4

4

4

Mike McGlinchey

OL

PA

3

4

4

4

Colin McGovern

OL

IL

3

4

4

4

Jacob Matuska

DE

OH

3

3

4

3

Devin Butler

CB

DC

3

3

3

4

James Onwualu

WR

MN

3

3

3

4

Corey Robinson

WR

TX

3

3

3

3

Rashad Kinlaw

ATH

NJ

3

(3)

4

4

The Irish are also putting together a very solid class, with only Corey Robinson not getting four stars from at least one service.

#4 Penn State - 8 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Adam Breneman

TE

PA

4

5

4

4

Christian Hackenberg

QB

VA

4

4

4

4

Greg Webb

DT

NJ

4

4

4

4

Garrett Sickels

DE

NJ

4

3

4

4

Ross Douglas

CB

OH

4

3

3

4

Brendan Mahon

OL

NJ

4

3

3

4

Curtis Cothran

DE

NJ

(2)

(2)

3

(2)

Andrew Nelson

OL

PA

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

The Nittany Lions add in-state lineman Andrew Nelson.

#5 Michigan State - 7 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Jon Reschke

LB

MI

4

4

4

(3)

Shane Jones

LB

OH

4

3

3

(3)

Caleb Benenoch

OL

TX

3

3

3

4

Gerald Holmes

RB

MI

3

3

3

3

Jalyn Powell

S

OH

3

3

3

(2)

R.J. Shelton

RB

WI

3

3

3

3

Damion Terry

QB

PA

(3)

(3)

3

4

The Spartans add Shane Jones—who held a Michigan offer, but not a committable one post-McCray—and Damion Terry. Strangely, neither Jones nor Jon Reschke are ranked by ESPN.

#6 Nebraska - 4 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Marcus McWilson

S

OH

4

4

3

(3)

Josh Banderas

LB

NE

4

3

4

4

Tre'vell Dixon

ATH

LA

4

3

3

4

A.J. Natter

DE

WI

3

4

3

3

The Huskers add A.J. Natter. Tre'vell Dixon gets three stars from Scout.

#7 Iowa - 3 Commit

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

David Kenney

DE

IN

4

3

3

4

Delano Hill

S

MI

3

3

3

3

Derrick Willies

WR

IL

3

3

3

(2)

Derrick Willies gets three stars from Scout.

#8 Wisconsin - 3 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Garret Dooley

LB

IL

3

3

3

4

Austin Ramesh

ATH

WI

3

3

4

3

T.J. Watt

ATH

WI

3

3

(2)

(2)

Austin Ramesh and T.J. Watt pick up three-star ratings from Scout.

#9 Illinois - 4 Commits

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Christian DiLauro

TE

OH

3

3

3

(2)

Dillan Cazley

CB

IL

3

3

2

3

Kendrick Foster

RB

IL

3

(2)

2

(2)

Jesse Chadwell

OL

MI

(2)

3

3

(2)

Christian DiLauro, Dillan Cazley, and Jesse Chadwell all get three stars from Scout.

#10 Northwestern - 1 Commit

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Matt Alviti

QB

IL

4

4

4

4

Northwestern's lone commit, dual-threat Matt Alviti, is a four-star across the board.

#11 Minnesota - 1 Commit

Name

Position

State

Rivals

Scout

24/7

ESPN

Keelon Brookins

CB

MN

3

3

3

(2)

Keelon Brookins gets three stars from Scout.

Indiana and Purdue still do not have a commit for the 2013 class.

Comments

Space Coyote

April 17th, 2012 at 6:24 PM ^

However, once you start getting down to the 2-star, low 3-star recruits, it's really just hand-waving by most of the recruiting sites.  It's nearly impossible to declare someone worthy of 2-stars compared to someone that just barely deserves 3 stars.  But that's a recruiting site problem that seems allow other schools to puff out their chests about their coaches staffs when they "turn 2-stars into studs".  In all honesty, there just isn't a good way to differentiate them, and I don't think it really indicates much of a difference between incoming talent.

Go Blue from OH

April 17th, 2012 at 6:59 PM ^

This seems like a more logical method of rating the NR recruits. At the very least, it keeps the averages from being skewed. A prime example is Penn State, who certainly has the 4th best class in the B1G at the moment. 

blueinthebay

April 18th, 2012 at 1:34 AM ^

and i know that im a homer but i'll go ahead and say that i have always thought that scout was the most accurate site and that espn's (even though not as agreeable with the other sites) atleast has a sense of logic to it. Yes, they love the SEC country, but for a good reason because they have kind of been dominating. Either way there's always rankings that we will disagree upon. I think that one ranking site should use a type of player efficiency rating in comparison with the amount of the player's usage. For instance, the amount of plays a DL plays divided by amount of defensive plays for the usage percentage and then a point system for efficiency rating. If the player is part of a tackle, one point, half point for a qb hurry/hit, a sack is two points, beating their man but not directly affecting the play would be a half point/quarter point, causing a turnover is two-four points depending on field position/down, and if they manage a touchdown let's say four points. divide the points by the number of plays played to create a per. it would take a lot of film watching but thats what these guys do right? So a player who flashes promise/talent/crazy athleticism would have a smaller PER than a player who plays with consistency and makes plays constantly but lacks elite athleticism, or his arms just aren't long enough he would potentially have a higher ranking. elite atheleticism is something that should be taken into account but it is also easily measured  but this would be a way to potentially quantify a players football iq, instinct, and playmaking ability.

Also, you forgot to project a few players gaining that 5th star on certain recruiting sites :)