Big Ten OOC Games

Submitted by jamiemac on July 30th, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Well, five weeks from today, the college football season begins. We're all chomping at the bit to see and discuss some actual action. Speaking of action, lets get some discussion rolling on these Big 10 out of conference games that are already on the Big Board in Vegas and other odds sites.

Got any best bets among this group? Let's hear them. Here are the games:

Missouri +6 over Illinois (neutral site), Week One.

Iowa -10 at Iowa State, Week Two.

USC -3 at Ohio State, Week Two.

Notre Dame -3 at Michigan, Week Two.

Michigan State +7 at Notre Dame, Week Three.

Illinois -3 at Cincinnati, Week 12.

Wiso -11 at Hawaii, Week 14.

I know, not a lot to choose from.

A couple of points:

1.) We have seen some big movements in the Mizz/Illini and USC/OSU lines. At the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, the Illini opened at -2.5. It did not stay that way for too long. Very quickly it got bet up to six and when online books finally released lines, that is the number it opened at. The same thing happened with the USC/OSU line, but in the oppositie direction. That line opened at 6 at the Nugget. But all sorts of early money came in on the Bucks and the price fell to -3.

2.) The Michigan/Notre Dame line opened at 3.5, fell to 2.5 and is now holding steady a 3.The ND line is weighed at -120, while Michigan is at even money. That tells us that more recent money is coming in on ND and in order to stem that, the oddsmakers not only boosted the lines, but made the bet more expensive to make as well. Is it worth pointing out the underdog in thise series is 20-5 ATS with a 12-12-1 straight up record? I love seeing the Wolverines catching points in this rivalry. The public can keep pouring money in on the Irish for all I care. I'll fade them and go with the Book everytime.

3.) By matter of principle, I always take the Dog in the UM/ND series. In addition to that, I love, I mean flat out adore the Spartans catching a full TD against the Irish. MSU has won 10 of the 13 games on the scoreboard and really own ND Stadium having won six a row there. Among this small menu of games, it is my BEST BET. Book It!

Any thoughts on these games? Hell, I dont care, lets talk about other games. Whatever. Let's get this season rolling!

Comments

UNCWolverine

July 30th, 2009 at 1:12 PM ^

FINALLY, a post of yours that I can get excited about!

Just kidding, a little.

Do you really bet on Michigan games? I think the last time I did that was against Central a few years ago when we were 35 point favorites. I just couldn't see Lloyd pouring it on one of his best friends DeBord like that. Of course he did and I lost the bet. I can't remember a worse feeling that actually rooting against Michigan just because I had $50 on the line.

I vowed never to bet for or against Michigan ever again.

go blue.

jamiemac

July 30th, 2009 at 1:37 PM ^

Hey, I was just trying to have some fun with ya in that other thread, while having a legit discussion. I responded earlier today to your response from last night.

As for betting Michigan, well, they have been solid as an underdog over the years, going 30-17 ATS when catching points. Take out the OSU games (a series where the home team has more of an edge instead of dog/favorite) and Michigan is 27-10 as an underdog. So, I will generally take them as an underdog.

I will also usually bet against them in their first road game. Michigan is historically a disaster in that spot, especially if they are favored. I'm at work, so I dont have those numbers handy, but this "failure" goes all the way back to 1979 when as -9 they "only" won 14-10 at Cal. We should schedule those guys again, dont you think? Anyway, this year, they are already +4 at MSU in their first road game, so that chnages the dynamics a bit. We'll wait and see on that one.

I always have a hard time dealing with those very large spreads that you saw in that CMU game. Be it Michigan or anyone else.

But, I do bet Michigan games because it is the team that I know the most about. So when I have a strong feeling about one of their games, I pull the trigger. Same goes for the NFL and the Steelers (my favorite pro team).

bigmc6000

July 30th, 2009 at 5:52 PM ^

I'm totally pulling a Pete Rose here - if I'm going to bet on my team it's going to be for the win. If I'm afraid they might lose or I don't like the line I just won't bet. Maybe I've lost a few dollars along the way but karma's a bitch! :)

jamiemac

July 30th, 2009 at 6:10 PM ^

Sometimes you do, what you have to do.

I mean when your team is 3-18 ATS since 1978 if they're favored in their first road game, then what else or you supposed to do. Gotta take advantage of your team's failures.

By the way, they are 7-2 as dogs in that role, so I should probably ammend my previous statement in the O.P. about the first road game being a disaster for UM. In this role--which they will be in on October 3--it has been quite the opposite.

I will also admit that I would rather lose 50 or 100 bucks and see Michigan prove me wrong than the other way around. I can be a total Eddie Mush at times during my hobby and love it when I jinx a bandwagon and Michigan profits.

Durham Blue

July 30th, 2009 at 11:26 PM ^

when the favorite under Lloyd was always a bad bet, IMO. As the underdog, an absolutely good bet, with the latest evidence being the Florida bowl game. Now, under RR, I am not sure yet as last season was a bad set of data. But, I will go out on a fairly strong limb and say that betting Michigan as a favorite under RR will probably be a good bet going forward.

wile_e8

July 30th, 2009 at 1:18 PM ^

The one line that stands out to me is Iowa/Iowa St. Don't the Hawkeyes frequently have issues gacking up wins to inferior Cyclone teams when the game is held in Ames?

Ziff72

July 30th, 2009 at 1:26 PM ^

I've lost a lot of money on Iowa in this series over the years they blow home and away. Don't know much about ISU. They got a new coach and Iowa is supposed to be good so hence the line, but I don't know, eventually Iowa has to play a good game against these guys.

Ziff72

July 30th, 2009 at 1:23 PM ^

Not anything that looks real appetizing, but I have a little different read on the MSU game. This will be the 1st rd game for their new QB and with DLine a weakness for MSU if Jimmah has all day he will pick apart the Sparty secondary. Floyd should be a monster this year and Tate is pretty good as well. Not saying ND is a lock, but I could see a long afternoon for MSU if the new QB gets a little rattled early. I'm still not sold on Sparty this year. I understand the reason for optimism, but they have some pretty big holes to fill on both sides of the ball, this game will go a long way for me in determining wether or not the Sparties are truly on the way up. I'll take a pass.

Give me the under in the OSU-USC game :-)

UNCWolverine

July 30th, 2009 at 2:13 PM ^

would LOVE to see Cal, probabaly #1 on my list if I could pick an OOC road game. Cal and Michigan couldn't be more similar in many ways, plus it would only be a short plane ride up the coast. There are also A TON of UM alums in the bay area so it would be a fucking great time!

DGlenn26

July 30th, 2009 at 2:52 PM ^

Seeing Cal would be great, it was my number one choice when I heard we were playing a BCS team but I read somewhere it's not a Pac-10 team. So now I'm hoping for Ok State, others are still pulling for Georgia but they have to change their schedule a lot and I feel like that's too much of a big name school for us to play.

DoubleB

July 30th, 2009 at 3:17 PM ^

both Michigan and Michigan State against ND. I can't ever recall a team getting more hype for blowing out a very average team in a 4th tier bowl game. Was that game supposed to erase ALL that has happened over the last two years?

Maybe ND is for real and is going to win 10 games. But it's going to take a lot more than a win over Hawaii to convince me that's the case as opposed to their 9-15 record over the past two regular seasons.

jamiemac

July 30th, 2009 at 3:22 PM ^

IMO, Hawaii was the worst bowl team from last year.

They qualified due to a 3-game winning streak in November against arguably the three worst teams in D-1: New Mexico St, Idaho St and Wassau. They needed all of those just to get eligible.

So, like you, I put zero stock in that bowl game.

Fact is, the Irish are still soft in both trenches. Cant run the football. And, cant stop the run.

Token_sparty

July 31st, 2009 at 4:01 PM ^

Where did those point spreads originate, NBC studios? Lou Holtz's wet dreams? Child please. Both Michigan and State are going to win those games outright, and Charlie will have some 'splainin' to do to Touchdown Jesus and the ND fatful- I mean, faithful.

Sorry about the ad hominem, I just couldn't help myself.

rick55

July 30th, 2009 at 9:02 PM ^

One game you might look at is the Ohio U. versus Tennessee game. It's the week after the Florida game for the Volunteers, so they could be pretty banged up. Depending on the line, you could make some money off of that one, because being an OU student, I happen to know the team will be pretty good this year, and should win some games, one of which might be an ass whooping over Tennessee.

UofM Snowboarder

July 31st, 2009 at 12:16 PM ^

I know that it's at OSU, but only a 3 point spread for USC?

On second thought I guess they don't have a QB, huh? Anyone pay any attention to their spring game? Who's going to be starting for them? Is he any good?

Slinginsam

July 31st, 2009 at 6:22 PM ^

Longtime Michigan fan, but in college football, the best bets are often the FIRST game of the season. This one lines up perfectly.

You have Illinois with an experienced QB(Juice Williams)playing Mizzou, playing a QB in his first start(Gabbert). In addition, the Illini have all of their receivers back, plus the transfer kid from Florida. Mizzou lost Macklin, plus their other two starting wide-outs to graduation.

Illini are P.O.ed after losing this matchup last year; they should have won it. They've got the proverbial chip on their shoulder...TAKE THE ILLINI, GIVE SIX. This may prove to be one of the easier bets this season.

BTW, I wouldn't bet either Michigan or Sparty until you see how they play(NEVER bet iffy QB situations,this is why I'm betting against Mizzou). Lastly, ND gets too much "sucker" money from the ND Nation, who think they should be 12-0 every year. Squeezes the line too tight. Leave the Irish alone as well.

As you can tell, I sorta pay attention to this stuff....please don't tell the wife, she is kinda down on it.