Mid-Week metrics will be coming…well, mid-week.
Since we are within four weeks of the end of the regular, running some end of simulations start to make sense. Below are my projections based on my PAN ratings through last weekends games, run through 20,000 simulations and pushed through the Big Ten’s mildly confusing tiebreaking rules.
Odds of an outright win or two-team tie with straight ahead tiebreakers:
Michigan St: 58.3%
Three Way Tie: 6.0%
4 Way Tie: 0.1%
3 or 4 way ties mostly split between Nebraska and Michigan with a couple going Iowa’s way. Any 3+ team ties go against Sparty. The only judgment call I made was assuming in the event of a Michigan/Nebraska/Michigan St tie that went to the BCS computers I assumed that Michigan St would be out due to the ND loss and Michigan would lead Nebraska thanks to the head to head. Doesn’t change much, would swing a couple scenarios away from Michigan if they weren’t ahead.
In the end, Michigan’s odds are about 9.5% to reach the Championship game.
Update: MGoUser But I aint a Crip though had a good comment about Michigan's odds if they win out or go 3-1. Winning out gives Michigan a 37.5% chance of winning the division and going to the championship game. A loss within the division is a killer, odds reduce to 0.3% with a loss against Nebraska and 4.0% if they lose versus Iowa. An Illinois loss drops but winning the rest puts the odds at 21% and winning the next three but dropping to Ohio still means a 17% chance at the inaugural championship game.
Penn St: 42.9%
Three Way Tie: 6.3%
Four Way Tie: 2.1%
Five Way Tie: 0.2%
Despite a two game lead over Wisconsin, Penn St and Wisconsin are about even odds to win the division. Thanks to both of their losses coming out of division, Ohio wins almost any tiebreaker scenario they are in. There are a couple ties that the Buckeyes missed out on and Wisconsin and Purdue! split those.
If Michigan Makes It
Odds on who they would face:
Penn St: 41.2%
Odds Used for Each Game
Minnesota @ Michigan St: 99% MSU
NW @ Nebraska: 99% Nebraska
Indiana @ Ohio: 99% Ohio
Purdue @ Wisconsin: 99% Wisconsin
Michigan @ Iowa: 67% Michigan
What a crappy set of games this weekend
Wisconsin @ Minnesota: 99% Wisconsin
Nebraska @ Penn St: 52% Nebraska
Michigan @ Illinois: 55% Michigan
Michigan St @ Iowa: 71% Michigan St
Ohio @ Purdue: 61% Ohio
Minnesota @ Northwestern: 77% Northwestern
Indiana @ Michigan St: 99% Michigan St
Nebraska @ Michigan: 56% Michigan
Penn St @ Ohio: 57% Ohio
Wisconsin @ Illinois: 72% Wisconsin
Iowa @ Purdue: 54% Purdue
Iowa @ Nebraska: 87% Nebraska
Michigan St @ Northwestern: 89% Michigan St
Purdue @ Indiana: 81% Purdue
Ohio @ Michigan: 70% Michigan
Illinois @ Minnesota: 89% Illinois
Penn St @ Wisconsin: 85% Wisconsin