After the ClusterPunt debacle with MSU on Saturday, I continue to be in a state of suspended disbelief regarding UM's ranking at #2 as per the S&P+ composite numbers.  What's also interesting to note, beside the smattering of teams with 2 and 3 losses in the top 25, is that the upper echelon which U-M shares with Clemson, is separated by about 2.5 points from the next level shared by Alabama & Baylor.  The total separation across the top 10 is about one TD, and 2 TD's across the top 25.

Along those lines, Bill Connelly has once again updated the Adv. Stats Profile for Michigan, which of course features a win probability for each of the remaining games.  So given that, here's an updated look at the Total Wins Probability distribution:

click to embiggen --^

Mr. Obvious: "WTF! Where's the bell-shaped curve?"

Mr. Smarty-pants: "Dude, it's a Poisson Binomial random process.  Take a stats class."

Bill Connelly's model continues to be stoked on that high-octane MaizenBrew Cool-Aid.  I'd suspected that UM's statistical profile is some sort of outlier and some regression toward the mean might be anticipated after future games - especially after a loss that saw the defense gouged by Connor Cook, but trying to noodle thing through, the defense allowed only 21 points to MSU's top 40 offense, which is still much better than average, and that gets effectively averaged with the other 6 games.  That said, it would seem that U-M's defense is well-established at the so-called "elite" level, and it will take significant and protracted poor performance to revert from that.  Same principal would also apply to the offense, I think.  Pretty well established at the top 50-ish range.

Oh, and here are the individual game numbers that went into it:

                   Win
Opponent         Probability
---------------+------------
at Minnesota        87%
Rutgers             98%
at Indiana          88%
at Penn State       76%
Ohio State          71%

The likelihood of beating OSU has declined from 82% last week to 71% now.  Sound familiar? OSU once again is taking half a season to remember how to play football while practicing with tomato cans, but will probably have things in order by the time Sparty comes to town, which is good for U-M, because U-M needs OSU to be undefeated when they roll into Ann Arbor.

Mr. Obvious: "That means I'll have to pull for OSU. Maybe I'll just take the Missus out for brunch at the Museum that day."

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
                   - Sanskrit proverb, ~400 B.C.

So just to get a complete picture of how all of these probabilities impact conference standings and prospects for U-M to win a B1G Championship, here you go:

Given that U-M is expected to win each of its remaining games, including OSU, and MSU is also expected to lose to OSU and at Nebraska, that would make U-M the B1G East champion.  U-M would also be favored to beat Iowa in that neutral site matchup.