UPDATE 2: Added Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Miami (YTM), and Virginia Tech. h/t leftrare for the assist. If you're looking for any more comparisons, just leave a request in the comments.
UPDATE: Added Penn State, Oregon, Florida State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. h/t MGoAlexander for the assist.
To take nothing away from Chase Winovich as a player, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that a large part of our collective excitement at landing his commitment was the ecstasy of winning a[nother] head-to-head recruiting battle over Ohio State. Several tweets mentioned that Winovich is the seventh Michigan commit in the 2014 class who had an OSU offer.
This got me wondering how many OSU commits had Michigan offers, and whether we're stacking up as well against our other rivals and various national powers. So I did a little bit of checking around on 247 today. Chart? Chart. (Actually more of a table.)
|Team X||Michigan Commits with Team X Offer||Aggregate Stars of M Commits with X Offer||Team X Commits with Michigan Offer||Aggregate Stars of X Commits with M Offer||Player Differential||Aggregate Star Differential|
|TEXAS||0||0||2||7||TEX +2||TEX +7|
|LSU||1||5||2||9||LSU +1||LSU +4|
|MIAMI(YTM)||2||7||1||5||M +1||M +2|
|VA TECH||2||8||1||4||M +1||M +4|
|PSU||2||9||1||4||M +1||M +5|
|OREGON||2||8||0||0||M +2||M +8|
|STANFORD||4||17||2||8||M +2||M +9|
|ALABAMA||4||17||1||5||M +3||M +12|
|FSU||3||12||0||0||M +3||M +12|
|NEBRASKA||3||12||0||0||M +3||M +12|
|OSU||7||28||4||16||M +3||M +12|
|WISCONSIN||4||16||1||4||M +3||M +12|
|USC||3||13||0||0||M +3||M +13|
|MSU||5||19||0||0||M +5||M +19|
|FLORIDA||5||21||0||0||M +5||M +21|
(Stars are computed based on the 247 composite star rating. I may have missed recruits, so please feel free to let me know. Big Ten programs in italics.)
Of the programs I checked, only LSU and Texas are beating us in head-to-head recruiting for this cycle, but our overlapping targets are so few that I'm not sure we can really draw any generalized conclusions from that. With Da'shawn Hand and Malik McDowell still to drop, we have a good chance of winning the overall head-to-head against Les Miles at the end of the day. We'll probably "lose" the head-to-head against Texas, but as leftrare points out in the comments, that's largely the product of their Texas-centric recruiting.
As a general matter, the SEC is holding its own against us - obligatory caveat about small sample size for LSU and Georgia, but Tennessee and Alabama have had a lot of success poaching Midwestern recruits in recent cycles (see, e.g., Brian's front page post about this), and that trend appears to be alive and well in this class.
Notre Dame is also basically at parity with us, while we're pretty convincingly prevailing over Ohio State at this juncture. As always, lol sparty.
Winning head-to-head recruiting battles is important, obviously, because offers are often better indicators of future performance than star ratings. But they're also important as a means of deflecting the constant refrains of "recruiting doesn't matter, stars don't show up on the field," etc. The one aspect of recruiting that no reasonable fan can deny is that you want your program to land its first-choice talent and not have to settle for Plan B, C, or D. So far, Hoke & Co. have done an exceptional job of standing toe-to-toe with our rivals and nationally elite programs, and they've won significantly more battles than they've lost.