2009 MSU and What it Means for Michigan

Submitted by joeyb on August 14th, 2009 at 11:06 AM
I have read in several places that Michigan State is a viable candidate for 3rd place in the Big Ten. All I knew was that they have some big shoes to fill now that Ringer is gone. Their starting quarterback left, but most are saying that his replacement will probably be a step up. I am still of the mindset that Sparty will eventually crash and I was thinking this would be the season. I began looking at their schedule and now I am convinced otherwise.

Their schedule looks like this:
OOC
@ND
WMU and CMU
FCS Team - Montana State (7-5)

BT Away
Wisconsin (6)
Illinois (8)
Minnesota (7)
Purdue (9)

BT Home
Michigan (10)
Northwestern (4)
Iowa (5)
PSU (2)

Missing
Indiana (11)
Ohio State (1)

Their OOC schedule is nearly identical to ours. Change CMU to EMU and sub in a slightly worse FCS team and you have our OOC schedule. Their Big Ten schedule is ridiculously in favor of them this year. They don't play OSU and they have PSU, Iowa, and Northwestern at home. Those 4 and MSU were the top 5 teams in the Big Ten last year.

Their roster:
QB: 2 sophs competing for starts
RB: 2 sophs and a senior competing for starts
FB: 2 seniors competing
WR: 3 returning, including Mark Dell and Blair White
OL: Return the Left side and center, A junior and sophomore take over on the right
TE: Return their junior starter

DE: 1 returning starter, 1 junior
DT: soph takes over
NT: returning starter
LB: returning Sam and Mike, 2 seniors competing for Will
CB: 2 returning starters
FS: returning starter
SS: junior taking over

Basically, look at it this way. Their offense is like ours in 2004. Young QB with a ton of good WR to throw to. New running back to fill a workhorse's shoes (ours was Chris Perry).

Their defense is returning 7 starters and filling the other spots with a sophomore, 2 juniors, and a senior. Mark Dantonio was the DC for OSU when they won their NC (only after McGahee blew out his knee). He is going to ride his defense this year for his record.

So, how does this affect Michigan? I think what will happen is Michigan will beat ND. MSU travels to ND the next week and I think they lose a close game. After that, MSU goes to Wisconsin, demolishes them, and then we travel to East Lansing.

The Matchup
(4-0) Michigan @ (3-1) MSU

Michigan on Offense
Our offense should be clicking at this point. However, this will be Tate's first away game and he will probably struggle against a staunch defense especially with 3 of 4 returning DBs. We will need to utilize a lot of quick slants and bubble screens in order to keep Tate from making mistakes. Brandon Minor is going to have to carry this team through this game.With half the DL being replaced, he should be able to get a pretty good YPC going, but I wouldn't expect too many long runs with the extremely experienced LBs.

MSU on Offense
By this point we will know if their offense will go the way of Michigan 2004 or Sparty <Insert Year here>. I think they will be competent enough to put 20 points up each game, but not really blow anyone out of the water. The other unknown here is obviously our defense. Our line is almost completely rebuilt, we still don't know if our LBs will improve from last year, we have two safeties with no starting experience, and we have our third defensive coordinator and scheme in three years. Luckily, we start two 5 star recruits starting as our CBs and a former SS playing as our Sam. That should help us match up against their receivers and force them to take their chances running.

Game Prediction
MSU 20 - Michigan 14
Originally, I thought we would win here. I think we still have a chance here (obviously, but i mean a decent one), but I think their defense will overpower us. Tate will have his worst game of the season going 1 TD - 2 INT, and Brandon Minor will have 100 yards with a TD.

MSU Season Prediction
Well, I have already stated I think they lose to ND and then go on a rampage, taking down most of the Big Ten. After us, they travel to Illinois, where I think they come down from their high from beating 2 years in a row for the first time in over 40 years, and Illinois destroys them. MSU the rest of their games except PSU. PSU wins a close game in East Lansing. If MSU doesn't win 3 games in every one of those categories above, I will be shocked at first, but then remember it is Sparty we are talking about.

Summary of Predictions for MSU
9-3 Overall
6-2 Big Ten
Losses @ND, @Illinois, vs. PSU
MSU 20 - Michigan 14

Comments

OSUckSteverMSUcks

August 14th, 2009 at 12:38 PM ^

Just admit it. You are either fucking retarded or you do not care about grammar on a message board.

Either one is an acceptable answer.

I make grammatical errors all the time. However, I don't come back to try to justify the mistake by making another comment with more grammatical errors. I admit that I type like a retard from time to time and take the negbanging in stride.

joeyb

August 14th, 2009 at 12:49 PM ^

Actually I was saying "Do a search on [the word] their" not "Do a search on [the post]".

I make grammatical errors all the time as well. And I see them all over this board, but I don't correct them because I realize that people make the mistakes. I just get pissed off when someone insinuates that I am somehow less intelligent than they are because I made a mistake in 2 spots but got it right in 10-15 others.

jrt336

August 14th, 2009 at 11:46 AM ^

Let's worry about ND before MSU. And even Western for that matter. We could be 2-2 going to play in EL. I think Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota could be better (depends on their schedules-I haven't looked at them). MSU could lose at Wisconsin. They could go anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2.

The King of Belch

August 14th, 2009 at 3:22 PM ^

I +1'd ya for this. MSU should be taken seriously.

I live in (midwestern state known for Corn) that for years only treated (state known for a panhandle. A real panhandle) as its only rival, while others began to circle (Corn state) in red.

Well, before long, the little guys who decided to go after (Corn) began beating them with, if not an alrming frequency, then at least more frequency than normal. In fact, teams that weren't beating (corn) in like 30 years all the sudden were beating them like every other year.

MSU is on the improve, and whether we want to sit back and chortle and say "they need to beat us 38 times in a row to tie and they need to go and lose 12 of 16 Rose Bowls before I take them seriously"--we live in a different, instant results world now--and if MSU beats UM this year, with all the bullshit of the last year--well, I just don't think you can overemphsize THIS game THIS year.

The ND and MSU games are, IMO, very winnable of the Big Four this season, even with MSU on the road. UM needs to take those two down this year.

West Texas Blue

August 14th, 2009 at 12:00 PM ^

Please people, no more stuff on MSU. We only talk about Michigan. I don't care anything about MSU's football team. We'll scout them the week we play them. Until then, please I'm asking for no more on MSU.

MGOARMY

August 14th, 2009 at 1:50 PM ^

They can definitally lose that game, Being a CMU student since Dan L. was a freshman I have seen what this offense can do and they are probably BCS buster good on that side of the ball. However the D is epicly bad. They allowed a woefull Eastern team to throw somewhere around 80 times and let up 50 some odd points. Sparty better not be sleeping on CMU though, central has won the last 2 times they played in EL.

TTUwolverine

August 14th, 2009 at 2:22 PM ^

Could someone who has more time and knowledge than me please write something about the OSU game (or anyone else besides MSU)? Seriously, I think we've all given state much more attention than they deserve.

VictorsValiant09

August 14th, 2009 at 2:50 PM ^

I don't know about MSU winning the last four straight against CMU, aren't the Chips on a winning streak against State?

And yes, I agree: no more on Sparty. I've heard enough from State people about how "we're obsessed with them now." Please let that not be the case.

They need to win the Big Ten/go to the Rose Bowl another 10-15 times before they deserve any credibility.

skunkbears4life

August 14th, 2009 at 3:36 PM ^

Why you givin little bro the time of day? Just cuz they beated us once in a 1000 years. We the best. Tate is gonna win the hisman. State ain't got ringer and now they suck. The spread option is the best option. RR rulz! Were gonna win 10 games this year and 13 next. Natinal champs!

CPS

August 15th, 2009 at 4:24 PM ^

Thank you for interviewing for the troll position at MGoBlog. Unfortunately your qualifications do not quite match our trolling needs at this time. We here at MGoBlog strive to provide the highest quality commenting to reflect the caliber of the front page material. Our standards for trolls are no exception. While McFarlin left some pretty big shoes to fill, it remains that your attempt to troll was...well...not good enough.

Best of luck on your future endeavors.

Sincerely,
CPS

skunkbears4life

August 15th, 2009 at 10:34 PM ^

Eh CPS,

I like fishin and will be happy to troll with you. Just give me a chance. I'll quit my bridge card fraud gig and work for you. I have credanceials. I was in this sweet ad for the Wunderboner. Seriously, go to youtube and check out Wunderboner. That's me in the M hat. Go blue or go blow. Mt. Dew and recitin the all-time winningest record is awesome. Little bother is a gay cow college. They will proly go 2-10 and be worser than us last year. Cows can't stop Taters and we'll just tip them faggy cows over. AA is skunk bear city and EL is a dumb name for a girl.

SKUNK BEARS FOREVER!

bailey1149

August 14th, 2009 at 9:40 PM ^

Why wouldn't you guys be worried about MSU. Ohio State is your number one rival, got it. But MSU is the biggest threat to keeping Mich from being a top team again. I know you don't think it can happen but there were times when USC was fighting for bowl games and look at Nebraska.

Also I know you guys think because MSU lost Ringer and Hoyer that they will be terrible on the O but heres a fact for you. MSU was 9th in the Big Ten in Rushing last season and Hoyer didn't even pass for 10 TD's last season. QB will be a major upgrade this year and RB is not a position where just one player plays, its more like WR then QB. MSU boasts alot more depth then they did a year ago.

pjrodrig

August 14th, 2009 at 10:41 PM ^

You believe the MSU will lose to ND but, they have owned them in South Bend. You believe the Wolverines will beat ND but they have a VERY good secondary and experienced LB corp. Those are the reasons you state that MSU may win. They also have the ability to "blow anyone out of the water" with a junior QB of 20+ starts and the nation's best receiving corp (Sporting News). Please tell me why you think we will win. The back who was successful (McGuffie) last year against ND is no longer here. I'm a realist, are you just hoping or can U-M control the ball for 30 + minutes and keep the defense off the field. Can we catch a punt or kickoff yet? Punting the ball 50 yds after 3 & out is not an offense. I need to see U-M smash the Broncos before I count any wins.

karpodiem

August 15th, 2009 at 12:20 PM ^

I can easily see them being 2-2 heading into the Michigan game. Bielema is on the hot seat, and they have a loss to avenge from last year.

msu has beat ND @ ND pretty handily the last couple years but I see things clicking for ND this time around.

That, and I would love to see the Freep headlines after they go 2-3. I might actually buy a paper.

redcedar87

August 15th, 2009 at 5:37 PM ^

is a distinct possibility. Our recent history at Camp Randall is not so good. QB competence will be key for them.

Notre Dame offers a great test for our secondary, but I'm not so sure their running game will be enough to respect. Still, it's far from the automatic win many MSU fans assume. Keeping the South Bend streak alive would be amazing.

Not a Blue Fan

August 16th, 2009 at 1:39 PM ^

Obviously I don't care for either MSU or UM, but this: "Mark Dantonio was the DC for OSU when they won their NC (only after McGahee blew out his knee). He is going to ride his defense this year for his record." seems like really ridiculous criticism of Dantonio. Whatever you think of him (I think he's a great defensive guy, but perhaps not such a great head coach), it's hard to argue that OSU only beat Miami (yes, that Miami) because of an injury. I'm happy to criticize Dantonio for being mouthy or for a lack of accountability or discipline (all of which is true). I think you've chosen, however, the weakest criticism possible.

In addition, I doubt MSU's defense improves over last year's D. They've got a couple decent LBs, but otherwise they're not much to write home about. I suspect their offense, however, will improve without having to rely upon Ringer. They've shown the willingness and ability to throw; I doubt they regress in terms of pure point and yardage volume.

I just don't think Dantonio will ever really have the talent at State to "ride his defense to success". The only way they're going to compete in the Big Ten is the odd year when they have an up tick in both offensive and defensive talent. They're never going to dominate in either category (warning: assumption here based upon historical recruiting).