Taken moments after the final person complained about Funchess switching to #1[Upchurch]

The Four Factors*

Total domination of a weaker opponent in every category. Michigan’s huge advantage in field position is partially driven by starting a drive with an extra point after Gedeon’s blocked punt return**. But even without that play, it was a large field position advantage, especially considering Michigan didn’t force any turnovers.

The 25% conversion rate allowed is significantly better than any number from last season. Last year’s opener was Michigan’s best game when they allowed CMU 47% conversions. Both bonus yards and bonus yards allowed were better than any numbers posted during the 2013 season.

*A quick refresh:

Field Position is expected points an average team will score given the starting field position over the course of the game. Defensive/special teams touchdowns count as 7 points.

Bonus Yards are any yards gained beyond the first down yardline, a measure of offensive explosiveness. >3 ypp is elite offensively, <2 is elite defensively

Conversion Rate is first downs gains divided by first downs started, a measure of an offense’s ability to move the chains consistently. >80%  is elite offensively and <65% is elite defensively.

Red Zone is points per red zone trip. >5.7 is elite offensively and <4.3 is elite defensively. This is the weakest predictor of the four factors.

All factors except field position are only measured on competitive series (all series in the first half and any second half series that starts or ends within 15 points).

**I know some people don’t like that I include return TD’s in this number but I think if you are going to count it if he gets tackled at the 1, it doesn’t make sense to exclude it if he makes it all the way in.

Individual Performances

Devin Gardner: +13.3 expected points, +26% win percent added

Derrick Green: +2.9, +4% (+9.3 including second half)

De’Veon Smith: +7.4, +7% (+9.8 including second half)

Devin Funchess: +9.2, +18% on 8 targets

None of these numbers are opponent adjusted yet. De’Veon Smith is the highest non-adjusted total for a Michigan running back since Fitzgerald Toussaint added 9.4 points of value against Purdue in 2011.

[Jump, game chart and such]

Game Chart

Michigan’s calculated chances of winning as the game progressed.

The six biggest plays that swung the odds of the game:

6. Frank Clark finds out even after a decade in football you can still learn something new (-3.5%)

5. Upshaw gashes Michigan for 27 yards up the middle (-3.7%)

4. Derrick Green breaks off a 59 yard run (+5.0%)

3. Gardner to Chesson for 19 yards on 3rd and 10 on Michigan’s opening drive (+5.4%)

2. Funchess stiffarm vs hapless DB (+6.3%)

1. Devin Funchess, route-master gives Michigan the early lead on third down (+7.5%)

Games of the week

Laugher of the week: Michigan State versus Jacksonville State, average play run with 92.1% chance of victory

Comeback of the week: NC State versus Georgia Southern, the Wolfpack win despite being as low as 4.4% chance of victory

Closest game of the week: Georgia versus Clemson. Georgia blew the game open late, but the average play was run with the odds within 11% of 50/50. Illinois, Iowa and Ohio St all made the top 6

Swing-iest game of the week: the average play in  Tulsa versus Tulane changed the win percentage by 3.5%. In other words, Michigan versus Appalachian state had five plays with more impact on their game than the average play did in Tulsa versus Tulane.

Most Deceiving Final Score of the week UCLA 28 Virginia 20. UCLA had  multiple defensive touchdowns and an average team would have score 43 points in this game, let alone national playoff contender UCLA against lowly Virginia.

Dumb Punt of the Week

Some good dumb punt karma in week one as both Tulane and Montana played the game of the best way to hold a lead is to give the ball to the other team game:

Tulane punted on 4th and 2 at the Tulsa 41 with a  4 point lead in the fourth quarter and then lost in OT

Montana punted on 4th and 4 at the Wyoming 37 with an 11 point lead in the fourth quarter and lost

Wisconsin was a tough one as a punt trailing by 4 with 2 minutes left on the clock would normally get strong consideration, but to Brian’s point from Saturday night, it wasn’t like they had any chance. They were facing 4th and 12 and didn’t have a pass play longer than 9 yards in the entire second half.

Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week

Washington eked out a 1 point win opening in Hawaii, despite trying their best to punt the game away. Facing 4th down and 8 from the Hawaii 32 with 5 minutes left and a 1 point lead, Washington punted the ball back to Hawaii. You’re never going to believe this, but the punt went for a touchback.

Bonus Dumb Field Goal of the Week

Trailing BYU by 21 points in the fourth quarter, UConn kicked a 35 yard field goal, changing the game from a three possession game to a three possession game.

Prediction

Coming into the season, assuming Notre Dame had a full roster, I had Michigan as a neutral site 0.5 point favorite versus Notre Dame. Both teams took care of business over lower tiered opponents in the opening weekend. Adjusting for the current state of the Notre Dame roster should negate the value of home field advantage:

Michigan 28 Notre Dame 27