Michigan-Ohio State
hikes. [Bryan Fuller]

This Week's Obsession: What Would Be Sufficient Comment Count

Seth November 26th, 2019 at 9:00 AM

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: You're about to sit down with your family and be grateful for everything you have. And then you think about what you have, and what you need to have, and how much you maybe could have, and now you have no idea if your investment risk is too aggressive, too conservative, or what? It's cool. Calm down. Nick Hopwood from Peak Wealth Management put together a free online tool you can use to plug in your numbers and see what your investment risk ought to be. Take this link, give it a shot, and if you want a second opinion, talk to Nick, or follow him on Twitter—@nhopwood1—so you'll remember to get to it later.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

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Nick's Question:

How do you need this season to end to not have another crappy offseason?

The responses:

Ace: As long as the offense doesn’t go back to what they were doing at the beginning of the season, a lot of the potential for my personal crappy offseason feels has already gone away. Just don’t get blown out.

Adam: That's where I'm at as well. Just keep it competitive. I think about this a lot:

Ace: …and how this OSU team then exceeded expectations. Assholes.

BiSB: Exactly. This was supposed to be "The Year" because Urban Meyer's departure left an opening. Which... what had happened was...

Seth: They just get to have whatever they want.

BiSB: That said, it looked a little dicey mid-season for reasons that wore neither scarlet nor gray.

The Mathlete: I think where Michigan is at right now (performance, not record) is close to pre-season best case scenario. The offense is humming, diverse and modern. The defense looks like what Don Brown does best, an eclectic set of pieces that come together for greatness

Seth: See, that's part of the conspiracy right? Like whomever's controlling the OSU dynasty that is our reality thought it was funny to set fumbles to 99 and play-calling AI to zero at first, but now it's later in the season and it's no fun to trounce Michigan if we don't look good.

The Mathlete: The problem is the other side is about two standard deviations above the preseason best case scenario for them.

Ace: lol, good lord. Who’s excited to hit the jump?

[After THE JUMP: Existentialist RPOs]

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Ace: I actually feel pretty okay about this game?

BiSB: /giphy that's bait

Ace: Mostly because I’m in a place where I can’t be hurt by sports anymore barring very extreme scenarios.

Adam: I try not to feel feelings anymore but it's hard to deny the trajectory both sides of the ball have been on since they got bitten by radioactive spiders at halftime of the PSU game.

Brian: I don't feel good about it, but that's good because it can't hurt me like last year's game. After which I wandered out into the woods for about 40 minutes.

Ace: Penn State drew up a half-assed blueprint with clear areas Michigan can/should improve upon, mostly in the passing game.

Seth: Also make Ohio State fumble a lot.

The Mathlete: It's the 2018 Indiana, but in reverse, that's the ticket.

Ace: Constricting the pocket on Justin Fields and hoping that forces him to fumble because he apparently throws an interception once every blue moon is a part of that plan, yeah.

Brian: Yeah at least it sets up that Michigan can probably just do what they've been doing without a spy; Fields will get some yards on scrambles but probably not a crippling amount.

Seth: I'm feeling very 2015. Michigan is doing neat stuff, is done punching itself in the face, has some bona fide stars young and grown to be excited about. And it just so happens we live in a time when the gap between the richest 1% and the richest 2% is vast and unconquerable without stupid luck.

Ace: Michigan also has Uche, which is nice.

Brian: I worry that they'll just tight zone Michigan to death but then I think "I mean if OSU's just running up the middle a ton is that so bad?"

Seth: Penn State did a really good job of jamming up the middle, but it meant getting very gashed when Fields kept. Course Michigan doesn't have a Robert Windsor. And I don't think you can get away with three-man lines against this. Fields versus their walk-on ILB went not great.

Ace: I worry that 90% of the game is going to come down to “can Michigan block Chase Young long enough to have a deep passing game that doesn’t occasionally implode” and I don’t feel great about that. Can they get away with max protect shots to Nico Collins? I’m ready to find out.

BiSB: At a minimum, it feels like we won't get a replay of last year because Michigan is more 'multiple' in both phases than they were last year. They got pounded in 2015 and 2018 largely because they couldn't solve one basic, repetitive thing. I believe Ohio State can adjust, but at least Michigan can hopefully force them to try to do so.

Brian: Michigan's pass protection has been the best I've seen it but the weak spot is the tackles going 1v1, and, uh... I mean, find Chase Young and chip him on every play and if that lets OSU double Nico so be it, there are other options.

BiSB: Can Michigan try a 2018 Indiana and double the edges and let the interior survive 1-on-1?

Brian: That's what I'd do.

Seth: The one thing Michigan can do that nobody on OSU's schedule this year could is block Landers, Cornell, and Hamilton.

Ace: Can Nico Collins sit on the heads of two people at once? Also possible.

image

and tell me that you love me. [Bryan Fuller]

Brian: I mean if you get a chip from Charbonnet he can then go out in the flat and someone does have to be in the area.

BiSB: It's nice that Penn State reminded anyone who was unsure, "singling Chase Young for an afternoon is a bad idea."

Ace: SIT ON EVERYONE’S HEADS.

Brian: Changes what you can run with receivers 4 and 5 but not necessarily their existence.

Seth: Penn State tried to single-block Chase Young all day with Will Fries!! FRAAAMES!!!

BiSB: And it's not like Michigan has thrown to the back that often this year anyway.

Brian: The other thing that's jumped out about the offensive of late is the emergence of a real, genuine cutting-edge RPO all day every day game. Those plays do a lot to neutralize a DL. If Michigan can find soft spots like they did in the last two games...

Seth: The one spot Ohio State fans think is attackable in their defense is the strong safety, which we call Rover and they call "slot cornerback" this year. Which goes to that RPO game.

Ace: I believe James Light mentioned that PSU gameplan largely resulted from them carrying relatively few plays in their playbook on a given week, which I don’t worry about with Harbaugh/Gattis.

Brian:

BiSB: If their linebackers have a weakness, they do tend to overrun stuff. They'll probably be pretty aggressive against the run, and those quick slants and hitches will be there.

Ace: Gattis’s MSU gameplan was a mess-with-linebackers masterpiece.

Seth: Those linebackers were allowed to blitz a lot last year. I would like to imagine "are you going to allow Malik Harrison free shots at the quarterback on play-action that doesn't play-act anything that's actually in our running game?" was left out of the interview process because it was understood.

Ace: XFL-ass offense. Too soon?

image

The guy in the background laughed. [Patrick Barron]

Seth: They did put up 39 last year. Getting back to the original question if it looks like Michigan used their talent to the best of their abilities and Ohio State was just too good I'm not going to be mad about it.

Brian: Yeah if it's a game and they lose to a team that's currently tracking amongst the best in the last 15-20 years of college football, ok. The talking heads will be annoying but if Michigan can go to a diverse two-high approach and also get locked in on Gattis's scheme that's a good platform for the future. Hamblastings of MSU and Notre Dame are soothing balms.

Ace: Is there any chance OSU finally comes out flat given they’re already all but guaranteed a spot in the playoff if they win the conference title game? I feel that’s how it’ll be retconned if they lose.

Seth: Maybe if we dress up as Rutgers?

Brian: No. Their whole program is based on ludicrous year-long hate.

image

I don't give a damn for the thing that I'm singing 'bout, I wrote a whole song for it because I don't care at all 'bout it. [Barron]

Seth: And most of these players are used to playing in playoffs.

Ace: Maybe Ryan Day is secretly related to John Cooper.

Brian: Maybe Michigan will have the John O'Korn gameplan without John O'Korn.

Ace: 2013 was wildly unexpected! They were just a month late with the game-winning playcall.

Seth: Too soon.

Warning: dead dove inside.

So let's talk bowl games. In the unlikely event that we do beat Ohio State does Michigan have a chance of going to the Rose Bowl or is that lost because Penn State has a head to head as the number two Big Ten team?

Brian: Rose Bowl can do what it wants and Michigan is already ranked ahead of PSU. They would take M in a heartbeat. But you know we're going to play Florida.

Ace: The second least-anticipated revenge game of all time.

Seth: I think save-scumming NCAA dynasty-playing OSU kid has been setting up a Michigan-Georgia game for a long time but can't get the algorithm to work.

BiSB: I'm almost more afraid of this game from a meta level than from just the impacts on 2019. There's no particular shame in losing to a Megazord like this Ohio State team, but the risk of Ryan Day doing the same thing the last two guys did (stepping in and immediately establishing comprehensive, soul dong-crushing dominance) is more than I care to contemplate. Especially because if he does, Day could be there for two decades.

Seth: See I wasn't even thinking past the drive-by Harbaugh takes.

Ace: To be honest I fear the reactions from inside the house, so to speak. But that’s mostly because of what I chose to do for a living. I don’t care what Paul Finebaum has to say because I’m very good at not putting him on my television. But it’d be nice to check my mentions without, you know, overwhelming existential dread.

BiSB: The drive-by Harbaugh takes will ALWAYS be there. So will the reactions from inside the house, truth be told.

Ace: Yeah, as if there’s any chance they wouldn’t lead into the next game with “Jim Harbaugh is only 1-4 against Ohio State.” That’s also true.

BiSB: I just want to be able to see those takes and laugh. I just want a nice thing.

Brian: Indeed, nice things are nice.

Ace: When was the last rivalry trifecta season?

Seth: 2003.

image

I kept the photos. [MGoBlue.com used to publish these after the game. This took a lot of storage space.]

Ace: That’d be nice. Michigan was 9-2 entering that game after suffering a couple really stupid early season losses. They had an enormous jump-ball monster receiver. There are some parallels.

Seth: Today Maurice Clarett would just get a two-game suspension.

Ace: So I think it’s time to admit how we all feel about this game?

Ace: [five minutes later]

Nobody wants to do this.

BiSB: I've gone through twenty-seven drafts of Punt/Counterpunt already. None has made it past sentence #2. We've all seen this year. We all saw last year. We all saw the last two decades.

Ace: [five minutes later]

FINE

1.

Screen Shot 2019-11-25 at 4.11.15 PM

2.

screen_shot_2019-11-25_at_4.11.39_pm

IT’S GOTTA HAPPEN SOMETIME

I’M A BASKETBALL WRITER, I CAN’T BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THIS

6'4 > 6'1, Michigan beats Ohio State

LOGGING OUT

 

Seth: My take is still most of my notifications:

We are Auburn without luck.

Brian: I just want both teams to try hard and have fun.

Comments

Hab

November 26th, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^

The BPONE with you guys... Hopefully by the end of the week you'll have picked yourselves out of the gutters of despair and be able to cheer with the kind of child-like hope and joy that isn't bound by the ever-present need to be "right".  Be a slappy for a week.  It makes things easier for the rest of us who are bombarded by those still suffering from PTSD from last year's game.  Shake it off already.  Last year was an outlier.  Every year save the last has been competitive, and the rivalry is defined as much by its upsets as by its high level of play. 

One suggestion would be to get at least one voice of optimism in that discussion.  At a minimum, get someone to put the razors on a high shelf. 

mjv

November 26th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^

I completely agree.  This BPONE concept is the worst drivel that Brian has ever typed into existence. 

The Game is to be celebrated with your heart on your sleeve. This is the last game of year.  This is The Rivalry.  Embrace it.  When we finally take this back, you want to be all in.  Sure, it sucks when we lose to them, especially the last two drives back from Columbus to Chicago.  But losing is going to suck whether or not you let yourself embrace it.  You may as well have the upside when it finally turns.  

h0ckey87

November 26th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^

I'm happy for you that you can enjoy The Game with this sort of optimism. However, there's a reason BPONE exists and it's for fans like myself that have never seen Michigan play in a BCS National Championship, a College Football Playoff, a Big Ten Championship game, lost 14 of it's last 15 games to Ohio State and got demolished in it's last outing.

Now I'm not this negative going into The Game and I'm going to scream like crazy at the TV cheering our boys on. It's just tough to put that all to rest when you grew up on the above results. It's not unreasonable for Brian and the guys to look at the game this way at all. Ohio State is just unfortunately a Juggernaut this year.

Hab

November 26th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^

The BPONE is just a way of putting a name to a feeling.  That's it.  Yes, there is a lot to be down about.  And I wholeheartedly agree that it's reasonable to expect the worst.  But that's a defensive coping mechanism.  And this is rivalry week.  Nothing matters except the game on Saturday.  You want to be down on the program for substandard results every other week, I get it.  You do you.  But while it's reasonable to feel down, it's also perfectly reasonable to feel optimistic about our chances this weekend.  The game is at home.  The offense is clicking, the defense is elite.  It's the greatest rivalry in all of college sports.  There's a chance to repeat history and to exorcise a lot of the demons that people associate with all of those perceived failings.  So, at the end of the day, it's a choice.  Do you stay in the BPONE, or do you not? 

bronxblue

November 26th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^

I get the need to be realistic; OSU is an angry ball of knives that is the size of a moon.  It's unlikely to be a fun weekend.

But yeah, this blog's brand is BPONE this year, and that isn't changing.  I've just come to accept it, much like the long-lasting belief that every incompletion was likely due to something Shea Patterson did.

harmon40

November 26th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

Well, BPONE is a logical way for fans to feel after such consistent disappointment. “You can’t hurt me if I don’t care.”

That said...you are right. If our coaches and players thought like us we’d have no hope of ever winning this game again.

And there are reasons for hope. Our guys are surging, and oftentimes upsets occur because the underdog gets hot at the right time. I don’t think OSU has played a team as good as how we are playing right now. Also, how will they respond if it turns out to be a tight game? They haven’t had to win one of those this season. 

What a great moment for our team, our coaches, and our program it will be if they can pull the upset! mgoblog will be remembering it in 2069 as the moment the Harbaugh era turned the corner!!

MGolem

November 26th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^

^^This is the answer to the Chase Young question. He may be God's gift to pass rushing but he does not want Mason hitting him in the face over and over again all game. Sit him in the backfield and have him unload on Young every passing down. 

This is going way back but I believe if Belichick did something similar against the Giants in their first Super Bowl loss said loss is a win. The Patriots did not have an answer for the Giants all DE pass rush package (similar to our "Jetpack" package) and it prevented the best offense in the history of the NFL from finding its footing. Even stranger considering the Patriots almost lost to the Giants in the regular season and knew what the Giants defensive line looked like.  

MW147

November 26th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^

As a lifelong Giant fan, that game was up there and may be my favorite all time game. What you describe is exactly what happened. The Giants would put 4 DE's in on passing downs and the Pats line could not stop them. They beat the crap out of Brady that day. That package had it's own name - Nascar. 

If the Michigan D line can generate pressure just using the 4 DE's, without much blitzing, that might slow down the Ohio attack. Hit him early and often, let's see if he can handle it. 

 

canzior

November 26th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

OSU has been doing this for years.  They call it their "rushmen" package to get their best athletes on the field. 

From Ozone:

The early days of Ohio State’s Rushmen Package began in 2015. Designed to get the four best pass rushers on the field at the same time on passing downs, the Rushmen satisfied defensive line coach Larry Johnson’s desire to put as much pressure on the quarterback as possible.

The Rushmen probably would have begun in 2014, which was Johnson’s first year at Ohio State, but the loss of defensive end Noah Spence ended those possibilities before they began.

The 2015 iteration featured Joey Bosa, Tyquan Lewis, Sam Hubbard, and Adolphus Washington, but it truly took hold in 2016 when Jalyn Holmes and Nick Bosa joined Lewis and Hubbard. There were no defensive tackles in the mix at all, and it remained that way again in 2017.

In 2018, however, defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones was a part of the package, and it was one of the reasons he chose to return for a fourth season. Alongside Jones was a mixture of defensive ends in Bosa, Chase Young, Jonathon Cooper, and true freshman Tyreke Smith. Bosa’s days inside were over, however, which is why Smith was in there early on.

dragonchild

November 26th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^

Is Chase Young a "not in the face" sort?  And can Mason get a solid hit on him?

I mean, I like the idea in principle and Mason's a fine blocker but this guy is literally the best [college player] in the country at what he does, which is slipping blockers -- the actual hit on the QB isn't the tough part of a DE's job.

Teeba

November 26th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^

Yes, but when Chase Young beats our 300 pound lineman only to be hammered by Mason...

I think the answer is to run right at him to negate his speed advantage. Since he can’t be blocked, don’t block him. Option off him. And occasionally wham block him off the arc action.  Hit him from multiple angles and see how he likes getting hit in the mouth. 

caup

November 26th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^

I am NOT advocating for Mason to be the only guy assigned to block Young. HELL NO!

That would be a disaster.  I'm saying DOUBLE TEAM Young every down, with Mason being the 2nd dedicated guy on every snap. 

Example: Tell Runyan/Mayfield to try to force Young back inside.  Have Mason keying on that inside move and hammer the fuck out of him as soon as he tries to pop inside past our OT.

The hope is that Young will start to take the outside path 12 yards deep (i.e. too deep) and take himself out of the play.

dragonchild

November 26th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^

OK, but I think you have one detail backwards -- the DE can line up wherever and rush DEs like to line up outside to get a better angle to the QB.  It'd be easier for the tackle to ride him upfield and then have Mason (who'd be at pistol/shotgun depth anyway) pancake him as he gets around the block.

But Mason's no idiot; he can read the tackle's block and "anti-option" Young -- hit him whichever side he's on.  Young would have to work to one side of the tackle and then back the other way to make Mason miss, and if you're forcing the DE to do that. . . well heck, then the QB has time to throw.

This is all speculative of course.  My guess is Harbaugh's going to single-block Young and Patterson gets knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter because that's how this game always goes.

M_Born M_Believer

November 26th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^

This ALL DAY LONG.  Would we be tipping "PASS" each time....?  Yeah, but at some point Superman (Young) would have to think twice how he will rush the QB knowing full well that he is about to get slammed by a battering ram each and every time.

Does this mean that Nico gets double.... Fine, there is DJP, Bell, and the Freshmen jitterbugs that would be single up.  As OSU did last year, someone will break open.

One counter from OSU would be to blitz a LB as we have committed Ben to go after Young, but the chess match would continue with quick slant to the opposite side of Young.

Young is a special talent, special talents have a way of impacting big games.  Minimizing Young's impact on this game will be essential.

oldhackman

November 26th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^

I have come to believe that Harbaugh has kept the carries limited to both Charbonet and Haskins for this game.  Tru is fine, especially with the game going according to plan in the second half.  But surely everyone notices the acceleration that Charbonet provides in the open field, and Haskins' ability to squirm through the most unlikely holes.  Both of these young guys will have very fresh legs and have absorbed very few hits for #1 and #2 backs at the end of the B1G season.

Harbaugh is 0-4 against OSU, that is true and last year's game was a defensive debacle.  But Harbaugh clearly outcoached Meyer in half of those games.  Had we been able to even get a COUPLE of stops in last year's game, even that becomes a close fought shootout.  I'm pretty sure Don Brown has been thinking about this game since halftime of last year's game, and will come up with a wrinkle or two.

The Buckeyes have been playing lights out, no doubt...largest victory margin since Army during WWII.  But their toughest tests have been Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Penn State at home.  And this year, WE have NOTHING to lose.

It will suck that this year will go without a B1G championship or trip to the playoffs.  But who wouldn't take victories over ND, MSU, OSU and in the Rose Bowl to go along with a top 5 National finish as a consolation prize?  I believe in this team, and I know they believe in their selves. 

Shock the world, beat the Bucks, and GO BLUE!  

mgobaran

November 26th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^

Ohio State and Michigan State have both been to the college football playoff and been shut out. Losing to the best team in the country is not an event that is back breaking. If it happens early (like Wisconsin) you can let the rest of the game and that bottle of whiskey over there wash over you and dull your feelings. Keep it close and it's good enough for all the reasons stated above, right?

Want to offseason to be not crappy? Just win the bowl game. Get to 10 wins again. I mean 4 times in 5 years should keep most of the negativity at bay until we can get over the hump, beat OSU and win a B1G championship. Until then we can hold onto the fact that we beat Notre Dame and Michigan State this year! AND BASKETBALL SEASON!

Booted Blue in PA

November 26th, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^

beginning this season I said "watch Haskins, he's going to getting #1 or #2 reps by the end of the season"

After three games I said, "the offense is learning a totally new system with a new OC, not shocking that its taking a while"

I've been telling you people that Ryan Day is John Cooper 2.0

 

Ryan Day is John Cooper 2.0......

Booted Blue in PA

November 26th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^

There are several reasons I believe this is going to happen.   I'd list them, but that would just bring out a bunch of Bpone rebuttal.

psu was in position to take the lead in the 4th qtr last saturday, the same PSU that we out played and got put down by minn.    they aren't unbeatable despite being 11-0 and the darlings of the talking heads.    

I like our chances.    

Ryan Day = John Cooper