This Week’s Obsession: Well That’s Nice Comment Count

Seth

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The Question:

Gentlemen. We're two weeks in and the true cupcakes have been stomped. What is

1) the biggest pleasant surprise so far?
2) the biggest unpleasant surprise?

First responder gets Speight. Get to it.

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The Responses:

Adam: 1) I had Wilton Speight resigned to the passenger's seat as recently as last month's Draftageddon, in which more rounds passed _between_ the selections of Speight and O'Korn (13) than passed before O'Korn went off the board (12). The ignorance is somewhat forgivable. Speight said yesterday that he basically learned his scout team assignment in 2014 and checked out. He got reamed in B-roll footage of a "Real Sports" piece on Harbaugh's arrival. He tore a groin and barely played in spring 2015. He got into a game against Minnesota later that year, and his performance was good enough to keep the Brown Jug but not good enough to unequivocally be anointed Rudock's successor. Fast forward to last Saturday, where it all ended on that first deep post completion to Chesson. With that one in the books, we'd seen enough throws of varying distances and degrees of difficulty to confidently assess Speight's ability to read the coverage and place the ball precisely where his receivers have a chance to reel it in while the DB does not. As it turns out, said ability is quite good. After 120 minutes as Michigan's starting QB, Speight looks very little like we expected him to, and that's been nothing short of a revelation.

2) Nitpicking is nitpicking, but the left guard platoon has been underwhelming. This was supposed to be a position manned by the more consistent of the two guards; Braden's return from injury against UCF didn't bear that out. He struggled, and though he has Bredeson to spell him it's hard to expect a true freshman OL to do much more than tread water. Braden's likely still recovering from injury, but I'll be nervously gnashing my teeth if the LG revolving door hasn't stopped spinning in two weeks.

[Hit THE JUMP for what we come up with besides “phew, so Quarterback’s alright.”]

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BisB: 1) Pleasant surprises: Chris Evans and Eddie McDoom. They both obvious ooze speed and athleticism, and they add a dimension that was lacking in Michigan's offense last year outside of Jabrill Peppers and the occasional Chesson jet sweep. But they have also flashed skills that indicate that they will be able to contribute as more than just Designated Fast Twitchy Guys.  McDoom has run a couple of nice routes, and made a really nice catch on a slant against Hawaii. Evans has exhibited some real patience and running back instincts, and has shown the ability to run effectively between the tackles and to operate in close space.

2) Notsomuch: Tight End blocking. Jake Butt and Ian Bunting have been underwhelming. TJ Wheatley and Devin Asiasi both look as smashy as we expected when they find and hit the right guy, but they're freshman. Sean McKeon actually looks okay for his size, but his size remains "not that large." (edited)

Seth: Brian said a few times that when Butt had a bad crack block Brian's thought was "I wish that was Chesson." That about says it.

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Seth:  1) To the good: the Brownification of Peppers looked ahead of schedule against Hawaii and tantalizingly incomplete last Saturday. As Steve Sharik predicted in his HTTV article, Brown has been deploying Peppers as a wild card to disguise coverages and blitzes. Specifically (thanks in part to Taco being out) we've seen a ton of "Pup":

That's the 3-3-5 look that Brown likes to use for passing downs, and though the page above shows the "P" going into coverages, the other three quarters of that sector of the playbook are the Pup blitzing from gol-dang-everywhere.

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Peppers had 5.5 TFLs last year. He’s already got 4 and a sack this year. [Bryan Fuller]

Despite that stuff staying in the garage, Peppers the Linebacker is going to pass last year's tackles for loss totals in three games. Brown has Jabrill doing everything from high safety to third defensive end, and he's lining up in places that let him use his speed to dodge blockers and which don't betray his intentions. Already watching this defense feels like watching an A+ troll job, and we haven't even seen the really mean stuff yet.

2) To the bad: Okay this is EXTREMELY nitpicky, but after two rote blowouts over bad teams it's hard to find negatives. But I'm moderately cheesed at the Breakdowns when playing their base. This was always going to be the tradeoff: Michigan's defense got way more complex, and therefore lost of that edge you get from simplicity. They gave up contain a few times last year when playing Cover 1 All Day (the UCF game reminded me most of the Citrus Bowl). That was rare, though. The simplicity made Michigan's defense last year incredibly tough to play against for teams that couldn't win one-on-one battles.

It's one thing to have Gary and Winovich—a true freshman and a guy who was just moved back from offense—confused sometimes about where to line up, and I understand McCray being behind the curve as well since he lost two years to injury. But Dymonte Thomas taking a bad angle? Ben Gedeon getting matched against a slot receiver and carrying that guy long after the quarterback's off and running? Delano Hill getting crossed up and vacating his running lane several times? Jeremy Clark getting sealed/chest-tackled by a receiver? These are seniors blowing the finer points of the defense they played almost exclusively last year.

Like I said, I LOVE Brown, and hope he wants to be Defense Harbaugh for a decade. And it's all stuff they can clean up. But you can draw a dotted line between all the new stuff they're doing and a bit of tentativeness when doing The Thing They Do.

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Kalis ain’t so easily pushed around no more. [Fuller]
Ace: 1) Um, you guys

Kalis has been particularly impressive thus far, as he returned this season after finishing last year ranked 197th out of 212 offensive guards back for 2016, but through the UCF game sits ranked seventh overall in the country in our offensive guard grading.

Mason Cole is grading out as the nation’s third-best center, while Erik Magnuson and Grant Newsome both have yet to allow a QB pressure, but the story of the offensive line so far is the proverbial light may have come on for Kyle Kalis. He’s always had the physical ability to be an NFL-caliber guard; this year has been the first time he’s looked the part on a consistent basis. It’s still early, and the left guard spot is still worrisome, but Kalis playing up to his potential is as pleasant a surprise as I could’ve hoped for, non-Speight division.

2) Contain, contain, contain. Michigan did fine in that regard against Hawaii’s abject offense, but UCF repeatedly picked up chunk gains on the ground when pass-rushers abandoned their lanes or blew assignments on line stunts. That’s not a huge surprise with Charlton out and first-year DEs (Gary and Winovich) getting the bulk of the snaps on the edge; here’s hoping they learn quickly.

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Brian: 1) While the answer here is indeed Speight he's been taken, so let's talk about Grant Newsome. Newsome was our other biggest source of worry in the preseason. His job was under threat from Ben Bredeson; he'd had an extremely hard time of it in spring. By season preview time I was tentatively projecting him to the bench.

And then: he's totally fine. As Ace notes above he hasn't allowed a pressure through two games. Both weeks in UFR he's had a tendency to pick up really good-looking kickout blocks that aren't actually relevant to the play. I haven't been showering him in points because kickout blocks are often a mutually agreed-upon compromise between offense and defense; nonetheless he gives off the impression of a highly competent OL.

There have been some mental issues, as you might expect. Everything else has been the best case scenario.

2) I wasn't super happy with Michigan's response to Scott Frost's offense. They had multiple plays on which they were set up to get got by wide receiver screens and were duly gotten. That pop pass McCray batted down featured two Michigan DBs sitting passively on a side of the ball with literally no eligible receivers. In general they seemed vulnerable against trips formations that covered the TE.

That amounted to little because Michigan was able to out-talent UCF by bighuge margins; I was still unenthused by Michigan's approach against horizontal attacks. I'm not waving my tiny "punt" flag yet or anything, but I'm hoping that Michigan was keeping the exotics in the garage since they were up 31 with 11 minutes left in the second quarter.

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BiSB: Obligatory:

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Comments

JeepinBen

September 14th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^

http://www.styleforum.net/t/32426/a-dissertation-on-ice-cubes-basketball-skills-as-mentined-in-it-was-a-good-day

 

Have you ever wondered, then, just how this was possible, especially in the context of the casual street game Ice Cube was playing? Not only did he achieve this triple double he did so while just fucking around. Fucked around means to perform with out concentration. Yet he still was able to perform superlatively if one considers that often, if not typically, a street game will be to twenty or twenty one points. Sometimes, if more severe restrictions apply, the game will be played to ten, keeping in mind that shots made count as one point, and two from behind the respective 3 point line. For Ice Cube to make a triple double in either of these scenarios while fucking around would be to totally dominate in a game to twenty

Alumnus93

September 14th, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^

I've come full circle with Speight....

When he was first recruited, I thought it was much more than a coincidence, that he looked like a jumbo Harbaugh... and was overly excited about his prospects.

Then, when Harbaugh came on, I somehow thought Speight would transfer, in short order, completely forgetting my initial feeling.

Now, the two are united, and he is the starter, with apparently a ton of upside, still.  

I am glad I didn't take any bets along the way, because I'd have lost badly.

Brofessor

September 14th, 2016 at 9:46 AM ^

Speight has been playing great and while I also was in the O'Korn camp I think most of us had confidence that Harbaugh was going to field a competent to good quarterback, whoever it turned out to be.

bamf16

September 14th, 2016 at 9:50 AM ^

I also thought O'Korn would be the starter, but as I posted in another thread, after watching the Spring Game again, (though it's easy to dismiss many elements), Speight outplayed O'Korn so it's not the same level of shock as perhaps 2004 may have been.

 

I thought Kugler looked good (albeit against subpar competition) and given the LG struggles I think a lot of us saw even before reading this, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kugler get some snaps against Colorado to see how he may do against a presumed better DL than Hawaii.

raleighwood

September 14th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^

I don't want to look too far ahead.....but I will.  Speight has two additional years of eligibility remaining.  Are we really looking at a three year starter?  What happens to O'Korn?  Does he transfer (again)?  I'm sure that LSU would take a look at a relatively experienced, well coached, pro style QB.

Personally, I thought that Brandon Peters would be competing as early as next year.  Does he have a shot at catching/passing Speight?

The QB possibilities are endless at this point.  It'll be very interesting to see what happens over then next 2-3 years.  This situation definitely beats the alternative.

AZBlue

September 14th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

I always thought that the loser of the QB battle would be gone next year, along with Morris. These guys want a chance to play even if it is not going to lead to the NFL imo. It does get interesting with Peters if Speight doesn't show enough to go early to the NFL after next year -- assumed it would be O'Korn one final year with Peters as the backup.

schreibee

September 14th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

I don't know about the entire fan base, but I think everyone who frequents this blog all feels inside "I don't care how good Speight looks - I want a QB who can run dammit!!!"

But those were some very nice throws vs UCF, and the dump off to Poggi while being dragged down was Big Boy QB stuff. So... can't we at least get a package in for O'Korn that threatens the QB taking off to worry future DCs?

1VaBlue1

September 14th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^

Why does everyone think O'Korn is a dual-threat QB?  

Sure, he's mobile, more so than most pocket passers, maybe.  But he's not a dual-threat QB!  If he was, he probably would have excelled in Tom Hermann's new spread to run scheme.  But he didn't.  He essentially failed in that scheme.  

I would liken his mobility to Harbaugh's mobility as a QB - sure, he could take off and get something from nothing in a scramble.  And he could run an option play every now and then.  But you're not going to make a lot of money designing an offense for Harbaugh or O'Korn where they have to run like Micheal Vick.

DY

September 14th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^

Never played for Herman at Houston. Herman was hired in December 2014 and O'Korn announced his transfer in early February 2015. They probably had conversations about how Herman uses the QB in his offense and presumably O'Korn left because of that, a la Mallett and RichRod.

JamieH

September 14th, 2016 at 4:26 PM ^

and I could care less if our QB can "run"  if he is:

 

A)  Accurate

B)  Makes good decisions

C)  Can evade the rush and extend the play

 

Running ability is a "nice to have".  I'll take all 3 of the above first.  Tom Brady could not run.  Elvis Grbac could not run.  I'd take either of them as our QB any day of the week. 

bamf16

September 17th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

A lot of the "I want a QB who can run" came from fans sick of watching Navarre and Henne, two statues who could throw, but who also left a lot of big plays on the field b/c of, in the case of Navarre, he was a guy seemingly running in concrete boots, and in the case of Henne, we saw a QB who inexplicably never developed a feel for moving around behind the line of scrimmage to give guys time downfield to get open.  Henne seemed to just want to "tuck and run" all the damn time, and he sucked at it.

 

I see a lot of that in O'Korn too, a guy who takes off too early.  Speight is the better of the two in using his feet to stay behind the LOS, keeping the pass an option, and he moves better than people think; he's a better runner than people think.

ak47

September 14th, 2016 at 9:58 AM ^

This is somewhat random but Brian's point brings it up again.  Other than talking about the spread what has Don Brown shown as a DC to make us think he will actually be good at stopping it? The ACC isn't exactly chock full of spread zealot offenses so while I'm happy they could dominate bad offenses and stop Dalvin Cook Clemson put up over 500 yards of offense on them and Clemson runs an offense more similar to OSU than florida state does.  ND also put up almost 500 yards of offense against them but had 5 turnovers.  They did seemingly handle Louisville's offense pretty well, giving up nearly 400 yards of offense but without any offesnive help even a little bit and they forced a ton of turnovers and sacks. 

ScruffyTheJanitor

September 14th, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^

I am sure someone will bring up some random example or other, but by and large spread teams are going to get theirs. You just have to be able t:

1) Slow them down. Hold them to 30-or-less instead of 45;

2) Make stops at key points in the game;

3) Force mistakes and capitalize on them.

The idea that we will ever hold Ohio State to 10 points is just a fantasy. The idea that we could force them off the field a few times and give the offense more chances to produce points is a real possibility. 

reshp1

September 14th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^

Durkin's defense was great at holding bad teams to zero points because he kept a guy back at all times and let the other 10 maul overmatched opponents. As soon as we played teams that could cope, by their improved skill or our injury, things went downhill in a hurry. Keeping that high safety back instead of getting him down to support the run meant we bled yards play after play after play.

Brown's system isn't going to shut down teams because busts happen even against bad offenses, and when they do in his defense, they go for a lot of yards. But on the other hand, he's not going be content to sit back and die of a million papercuts either. I know he didn't like the high risk high reward description, but in some ways it's accurate. You accept the fact that you may give up some big plays in order to be able to get all 11 involved so you can get the negative and zero gain plays you need to kill drives. 

1VaBlue1

September 14th, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^

Scruffy speaks the truth about slowing a good spread team. But another, very important, price of the football puzzle: a good offense makes the defense's job easier. BC had no offense - literally. And that is one of the few instances where 'literally' is correctly used while still being incorrect. We all know UM has better players than BC, but we also have an offense that can keep the ball for long chunks of time and score points. Far more points in one game than BC could score in 5 games. Don't underestimate the impact of that in keeping a good spread team down.



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wahooverine

September 14th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^

What does "stopping the spread" mean?  Shutout? Getting higher that the average amount of 3 and outs?  Shutting down the zone read?  Stopping them enough times to give your offense opportunities to score enough to win?  My view is the latter and Brown's history suggests he does that.. BC just didn't have an offense. 

This blog just recently had a feature on Don Browns usage of scrape exchanges, a key tactic in stopping the zone read, with clips showing Brown defense "stopping the spread" at least for one play.

ak47

September 14th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^

I get that football favors the offense so you won't ever completely shut down an elite offense, but with a weather aided asterisk since 2012 msu has kept osu under 30 points 3 out of 4 times including under 20 twice. 

I think under 30 points iwith at least one turnover s the target goal for what I could consider to be succesful in terms of not just being a minor roadblock you hope they accidentally trip over and actually doing something active to stop the spread.

Stringer Bell

September 14th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^

In the BTCG, MSU was getting gashed on the ground by Carlos Hyde.  For some reason, Urbz stopped going to that well despite the fact that MSU couldn't stop it.  Then last year, OSU didn't even challenge the gaping hole in MSU's defense, which was its secondary.  I dunno what it is, but OSU's coaching has gone in the shitter multiple times when they play MSU.

Kevin13

September 14th, 2016 at 9:59 AM ^

were the perfect scenario for guys to iron out the problems and get things on film so they can be fixed before we face better competition. I finally have the confidence that we have a coaching staff that makes adjustments and keeps the team improving every week. I was always blown away, but former staffs, how the team continued to make the same mistakes 10 weeks into the season. There were times I wondered if they even practiced.

reshp1

September 14th, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^

Didn't Newsome allow the pressure against Hawaii where Speight rolled out amd directed Ways to an open spot and hit him? He does look pretty solid and I thought he looked good run blocking too.

wolfman81

September 14th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^

The blockquote Ace cites is from the PFF folks.  I know they have certain garbage time rules (once you are up by x, no more fucks given).  Brian may be charting longer than they are.  ALSO, (and probably more importantly) nobody who is publicly sharing the charts knows what the protection call was on that play.  So that rusher may have been the TE's responsibility, and not Newsome.

Tiny nits aside, Newsome is playing like a guy who is executing well...against the punching bags at least.  We will see what happens when the bag starts punching back.

Needs

September 14th, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^

Yep. Newsome has proven himself able against sub replacement level competition. Don't think we'll know until Wisconsin whether he's a level above "competent."

I preface this by saying I know nothing about Colorado's pass rush and D-line. It doesn't seem that Penn State's line is playing at the same level as last year (though I think the WDE is the only d-line starter they return). But Wisconsin's Vince Biegel gave LSU's left tackle fits and is probably one of the top 3-4 pass rushers in the rest of the conference, and the rest of their pass rush is pretty solid.

Elmer

September 14th, 2016 at 10:16 AM ^

I've now read twice that Grant Newsome hasn't allowed a single QB pressure this season, but what about the Hawaii game?  On one play the DE beat him to the inside, but Speight deftly escaped the oncoming rusher and then hit with Moe Ways for a nice gain.  

Wouldn't that play be considered a QB pressure?  Newsome whiffed on the block and the DE had a clear lane to the QB.

(beat to the punch by the poster above)

M-Dog

September 14th, 2016 at 10:19 AM ^

I freaked out when I saw two or three UCF receivers out wide and only one Michigan DB out there with them.  This happened several times.

At first I thought it was a blown assignment, but then the other DBs and LBs would look over and calmly stay where they were.  It was not a mistake.

I could not for the life of me figure out what the intent was.  Still can't.

But I don't understand how nuclear fission works either.  I'll just have to be content to let genius do what genius does.