this week's obsession
brad hawkins
shea patterson
shea patterson pretty good
kwity paye
will hart
tyree kinnel
brandon watson
tru wilson
jon runyan jr

This Week's Obsession: Stock Up/Stock Down Comment Count

Seth

[Patrick Barron]

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: It’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. Nick is also a Podcaster—if you haven’t listened to it before, his podcast Finding True Wealth, he recently did a very helpful episode on retirement funding priorities that covered different types of IRAs.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

-------------------------------

Nick's question:

So it's Big Ten Season, for a definition of that which includes annual games against Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers. Stock Up/Stock Down?

Our responses:

Seth: I'll start: Chase Winovich. Killin it AND has his own même.

BiSB: It's hard to be Stock Up from where Winovich started, but... I kinda agree.

Seth: It seems harder to run off his edge this year and they give him no edge help.

Brian: You're starting with a projected AA and saying he's stock up?

/giphy penalty flag

Well done giphy.

Seth: But... You agree.

Brian: I don't, this is what I expected from Chase Winovich. Including the meme. Dude is a meme machine. WILL HART is on this team people

Seth: Ol' Fifty.

David: Yes! YES! I was going to say Will Hart!

BiSB: Oh yeah, go ahead and put the jinx before the jump. Thanks, man. THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS.

[After THE JUMP: no, we can't.]

Brian: But anyway, Hart going from the guy who got beat out by the guy averaging 38 yards a kick to All Punts Are Bombs is quite a thing.

BiSB: But yes, Will Hart is averaging >50 yards per punt. However, that is on 8 punts. Sample sizes and whatnot.

Brian: True. Hart's issue last year was shanks and those could recur at any time. Still, like Nordin: if it's straight on the regular he's a golden god.

BiSB: But while we're on special teams, Ambry Thomas, kick returner is a pleasant surprise. Both because kick returns are surprisingly still a thing, and he is apparently quite good at them.

Brian: He is fast. Due to the huge variance of KO returns and de-emphasis they're putting on them these days Michigan will be lucky to get a big play or two out of him for the rest of the season.

Seth: It is very Big Ten to be going right to special teams. Also Jake Moody has been getting Foug-level field position with the anti-Foug rule in effect. Should we do a stock down?

The Mathlete: Michigan only had five 50+ yard punts last year, only 1 from Hart. He has 6 so far this season.

David: I Heart Hart.

image

Bryan Fuller

Brian: The #1 stock down is pretty obvious: MIKE DWUMFOUR. Why are you talking about stuff in the offseason if that's going to be the result of the stuff.

Brian: Dwumfour would seem fine if he was just another three-star redshirt sophomore who seems to be working out but needs another year or two to really get it together. Instead he's got the Mo Hurst but big chatter dogging him and Carlo Kemp took his job.

BiSB: Perhaps when the DT rotation gets a little healthier, they can deploy Dwumfour in a more pash rush-y manner. But as an every-snap player, it's hard to mesh the hype with the product.

David: Real Stock Up: Carlo Kemp, for that matter.

Seth: Competition caveats on that one but yeah Western Michigan has a decent interior line and Kemp had his way with them.

BiSB: Yep, Kemp has been the biggest Stock Up on the defensive side of the ball.

The Mathlete: He may be the only one with true stock up on this D, as high as expectations were

Brian: Yeah, folks barely said a word about Kemp in the offseason and Kemp came in as an immediate upgrade. I know this happens every year across college football (see Hart, Mike) but it's still weird to me that folks go "oh right he's the real starter" I couple games into the season.

Seth: I wish we had seen him against Notre Dame. That is a very different game if the quarterback can't step up every time Winovich gets around an OT at 6 yards.

Brian: His only charted moment in that game was a -1 where he didn't look too great so the jury is still out.

image

Patrick Barron

David: Josh Ross: starting to point up?

Seth: I sort of figured he and/or Gil would be about here.

Brian: Ross had a bad whiff against SMU but also had another couple of impressive "I am large and also fast" plays. Buuuuut I kind of think the WLB spot as a whole is stock neutral. It had a bunch of guys competing and was likely to toss up a winner.

Adam: Stock up: Brandon Watson. Second piece of evidence that suggests you’re pretty good if Zordich decides your nickname is your first initial and the first three letters of your last name.

David: He did flash some de-cleater potential

BiSB: Relatedly, am I the only one giving a grudging Stock Ever So Slightly Down to Lavert Hill? Is that nuts?

David: And Swatson has removed an NFL CB from the field with consistency, this season

Seth: I have convinced myself Hill is an injury since he missed practice for something.

Brian: I mean at this point we're really just complaining about a couple of plays against ND.

BiSB: Compared to the rapturous expectations, though, he has only been super-human and not god-like.

Brian: I suppose that's fair. BTW "Bwat" sounds like the noise a pew-pew laser makes once you upgrade it

BiSB: Also, we're trying to undo the Zordich Compliment Ziggy if we can.

Seth: I can't remember a player like Watson that I've roller coastered so much on. I jumped on his bandwagon when he was erasing the Borges receivers in some ancient spring game, jumped off when he was not athletic enough to play Viper, and now this guy is very draftable.

BiSB: I think if it's B-Wat, it sounds better.

image

Some movement among the DBs. [Barron]

Brian: I think the more serious stock down is Kinnel in coverage. Dude just had a rough rough rough game against Proche. Metellus had some issues as well but he's also made a bunch of plays. Kinnel was +0.5 for the year prior to this weekend and is going to be significantly negative after UFR this week.

David: Maybe its overall Safety Play that's Stock Down?

Seth: Other than THE VERY BAD THING THAT WASN'T REALLY HIS FAULT and THAT OTHER BAD THING WHICH WAS BUT WASN'T SO BAD IN CONTEXT, Brad Hawkins seems like a Guy trending to future Dude.

Brian: I don't have a BAWWWWW issue with Metellus. The targeting was just one of those things. The PF was bad. The rest of his season has been pretty dang good. So just Kinnel, and since he's turned down the missed tackles just in coverage. IMO.

David: The return was pretty awesome.

BiSB: Metellus has been materially less boring than Kinnel. In both directions.

Seth: The Metellus INT was the same twist that Hawkins biffed. The experience there is paying off. I thought he baited it a little by staying high over the slot.

Adam: Big part of the return was Aidan Hutchinson, whose stock is up from my perspective. I scouted him last year and saw a freaky athlete I thought was at least a year away from playing time. Clearly I was wrong.

Seth: In the same breath I think Kwity Paye is very up.

BiSB: This implies you doubted Don Brown. Though he did decapitate someone on Saturday in a way I was not expecting.

David: He did plant, though

BiSB:

Seth: The thing about Paye is I figured he would be a weakside guy. He's now the Gary heir apparent. Reminder that Brown’s defense puts a lot on the anchor.

BiSB: He moves really well with the added weight.

Seth: Backup SMU quarterbacks do not agree.

image

Eric Upchurch

David: Can we Stock Up Shea Patterson?

BiSB: After the O'Korn Hype, you can definitely be Stock Up on Shea.

Brian: I don't know? I think he gets a steady. We know that Patterson torches people when they are bad and leave guys open downfield. The ND game was sort of an incomplete? Because of you know what.

Seth: I am definitely stock up on Patterson because I was throwing out early-season Rudock caveats up until football eve.

David: But some of those throws, man...

BiSB: But some of those guys are 15 yards downfield hauling ass to the sidelines, while Patterson is also hauling ass towards the sidelines.

David: Just On Fleek

BiSB: He's made some throws—of a bunch of different types—that have been eye-opening

Seth: Last Michigan quarterback who could usually hit an open receiver downfield? Henne?

David: No one since him.

Brian: Who said "just on fleek" and can i fire them?

David: MGoMonocast

Brian: Anyway i seem to remember a lot of Denard Robinson worst waldo bombs.

Seth: I don't remember many of those after his sophomore year.

Adam: Been long enough I still let out an audible, surprise-tinged “hmm” when it happens and we’re a quarter of the way through the season

BiSB: Patterson is completing 71% of his passes for 9.1 YPA and a 6/2 TD/INT ratio.

David: Yes, please.

Brian: This is true. It is also true he had 429 and 489 yards against South Alabama and UT Martin last year with a 9-1 TD-INT ratio

Seth: I have lost count of the terrible flashbacks that I get when Patterson completes something easy that his more recent predecessors did not. No I will not give examples.

Brian: Yes, he feels like a godsend but this is still in the realm of the expected and he should have thrown two awful picks in the first quarter Saturday.

Stock EVEN

EVENNNNNNN

image

Does not need much more discussion [Fuller]

Seth: Stock down: I figured we would see more of James Hudson by now.

David: To be fair...we haven't seen him play poorly

Brian: What's the stock down start point? From fall camp, yes. From the beginning of the season no. Backup remains backup, paves some Broncos. Eh.

Seth: Football Eve I guess.

Brian: Backups stay backups for too long. See last year's QB situation. It's not on the backup all the time.

Seth: After Notre Dame I don't think anybody wants to get to The Gaz with the current starters.

Brian: i'm kind of resigned to The Gaz being the last straw.

BiSB: And unlike PSU-as-O'Korn's-last-straw last year, Michigan can still get a win in Evanston with subpar RT play.

David: Just in time for the Badgers

Seth: They are still running the Let's Not Have Runyan Block offense. If you're going to do that why not play a freshman?

Brian: The stock down is really JON RUNYAN JR.

BiSB: They literally tried to make him taller via paperwork. That should have been a red flag.

Brian: -9 in protection against ND and avoiding the Q since. Even this person right here who gave the tackle situation a 1 didn't think that was what we'd be facing.

David: Yes, that was definitely disappointing

Seth: I just don't get the point of having him out there now unless the backups are seriously worse every day.

It's not doing him any favors to get singled out every play.

BiSB: Unless they're going to try to get a redshirt on Mayfield.

But, man, it's hard to see Michigan getting through an entire season like this.

Seth: It would be extremely un-Harbaugh to have his best left tackle only play against MSU, OSU, Wisconsin and Penn State.

David: They probably just haven't resigned themselves yet to the fact that the better option is True Freshman vs Nick Bosa

Seth: That or teach Runyan to hold since that's what most people do these days. It's not like NFL left tackles are growing on trees.

David: B/c he's going to get away with THAT in Columbus

Brian: Anyway let's move on

BiSB: Anyway, Stock Up for DPJ

Brian: My WR stock up is more NICO COLLINS

Seth: Unless we're talking as a punt returner because by golly.

Brian: Running by Julian Love like that is a thing.

BiSB: This is what we all kind of expected from DPJ, but 2017 put some doubt in some peoples' minds.

Seth: But yeah, Nico Collins had his first hype at the end of fall practice. When Black was already hurt IIRC.

David: We're seeing what we hoped they would be with good QB play

Brian: Yeah, I think DPJ has a crazy breakout season if you drop Patterson in last year.

David: As fun as it is to talk about the tackles, I say Stock Up for Truuuuuuuuuuuu. We can haz blitz pickups! I mean, Brian is asking for photos of a walk-on = you made it.

Brian: That I'll go along with. TRU WILSON hasn't seemed like a walk-on at a spot where walk-ons are usually painfully obvious.

Seth: Yeah this is right up there with "Shea Patterson hits an open deep receiver" in plays I used to take for granted and never shall again:

Brian: I feel like the ghosts of Mike Hart and Vincent Smith are looking on approvingly, Return of the Jedi-style

David: is it Stock Down for Samuels? Or did that cut/run in garbage time delay that?

Brian: Samuels was more stock down preseason when Wilson wasn't edging towards Kovacs Memorial status. There is a very obvious reason he's #3 and it's in that clip above. No shame in not being the pass pickup back in year two.

Seth: Vincent's ghost should teach Tru to throw a pass.

Comments

jimmyjoeharbaugh

September 18th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^

wait wait  -- edit edit!  I'm actually very curious where Rashan Gary would get pegged in this discussion. I feel like I don't see nearly as much out of him as I would expect - but others have said it's because he draws double and triple coverage and opens up opportunities for others.  What would this chat group have said? up or down?

 

still hard for me to imagine a superstar football player named "Tru" whose name sounds like it belongs to a designer on HGTV.  Happy he's been effective.

 

One the Mike Hart improvement - Do you think it has anything to do with Partridge joining the staff, or is Jaybaugh still coaching the kickers?  I know we sort of roll our eyes at Jim hiring his son, but it's hard to argue with the results he's had in his position groups previously - is Hart's improvement reflective of Jay's or Chris P's work?  Or just Hart's work?

 

Joined: 09/12/2018

MGoPoints: 5448

ijohnb

September 18th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

It looks to me like teams do their best to scheme Gary out of the game.  I am not sure if his inability to rack up gaudy numbers despite this constitutes a "stock down" consideration, but I will say that I don't consistently see Gary being as disruptive as I had hoped.  He does a lot of things really well, he strings out the run perfectly most of the time despite being held and often "harasses" the quarterback well despite doubles, but he does not seem to have really developed a buffet of moves when he is not doubled to get to the QB that frequently despite what seem to be immense physical gifts.  So, I guess long story short, Gary seems like a very good player who is not quite having the impact on our overall defense that I expected. 

Once again, I'm not sure what that means for his "stock" going forward, but he does not stand out as the cream of the crop of the defensive lineman we have seen come through here in the last four years.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

FatGuyTouchdown

September 18th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^

Rashan Gary's position and responsibilities require a lot more discipline and responsibility than Bosa's. Bosa is primarily a pass rusher and a fantastic one at that. Gary is responsible for significantly more in the run game than Bosa is, because if he doesn't hold, big gains are happening. Idk about Oliver I don't watch him as much but I would attribute a lot of it to "NFL Top 10 Talent plays in inferior conference"

Joined: 09/07/2014

MGoPoints: 14102

taistreetsmyhero

September 18th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^

Gary's career here is tracking like Peppers'...he's an integral part of the defense and a very good, effective player. But so far, he just hasn't made any memorable plays to secure his place in Michigan lore. If his production stays in line for the rest of the season, and he leaves for the NFL afterwards, it's gonna be a tad underwhelming.

Joined: 08/08/2012

MGoPoints: 39396

pdgoblue25

September 18th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

It reminds me of Myles Garrett, athletic freak who's stat sheet didn't translate.  But here we are 13 games into his NFL career and he has 9 sacks.  I think it's just that the coaches have decided that they're not going to let Gary beat them, and Winovich is capitalizing.

I think Gary is affecting the games more than we could ever know.

Joined: 03/03/2010

MGoPoints: 18958

wahooverine

September 18th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^

This is correct. Just watch him.  He affects every play usually by occupying two blockers.   His deployment is more strategic.  The opposing offense has to call plays differently because of him.  And in the rare snaps he is singled up (and isn't being blatantly held) on a pass play he is at the QB resulting in a pressure or a sack.  He did miss a sure sack not wrapping up against SMU one time.  There is no way he isn't a top 10 pick even if he gets no sacks for the rest of the year.

Joined: 11/14/2011

MGoPoints: 6799

Michigan4Life

September 18th, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^

Another thing that Gary hasn't gotten better at is his pass rush. He often goes without a plan and doesn't have much of a countermove when his initial pass rush gets stonewalled. That's why he doesn't have the stats.
 

There are ways to beat double teams and still be productive. Gary is still a great player but hasn't reached his potential.

I know a lot of people love Oliver but Oliver's size is going to be his biggest detriment to his draft prospect because he played at 273 lbs last season at DT. He's trying to get up to 280 lbs for the combine. At this point, Bosa is pretty much a lock to be the first DL off the draft board.

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 25143

jimmyjoeharbaugh

September 18th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^

Also wondering how this group would rate Don Brown - stock up or down?  I think it's sort of hard to go up from the shared sense of him being one of the best, if not the best, DC in the country. Only goes down from there - seems like the last 6 games or so he's gotten some gaps exposed on long yardage downs.

Joined: 09/12/2018

MGoPoints: 5448

Profe

September 18th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^

Anybody track the number of 3rd and long we faced this year?  Anybody track the number of all out blitzes called when facing 3rd and long?  Anybody track the number of soft zones when facing 3rd and long?  

My gut tells me we haven't played soft that much on 3rd and long but perhaps others know the facts.

 

Joined: 09/18/2018

MGoPoints: 2

reshp1

September 18th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

ND was weird, an inch perfect bomb and two TD drives largely built on penalties. Besides that, we basically shut them down. Can't really complain about Western. Then, again, weirdness with a penalty induced drive and a fluky bust was most of the score against SMU. I honestly think the slant stuff is going to get a response, but not until Michigan feels like they really need to show it on film. Compared to last year at the same time, we seem to be relatively stock flat. I think people just got used to how good this team is and forget offenses generally move the ball forward, even against good teams. 

Joined: 10/31/2011

MGoPoints: 34177

mgobleu

September 18th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^

That gif is another reason why I hate the NFL.

Instead of the coach saying, "Hey ref, I want to challenge that call..." they have to give him this dumbass red doily to pitch out, like it's going to be all dramatic like "hey fuck you ref, I got a flag too!" but it just looks stupid and 90% of the time the coach is standing right next to the ref and the they know damn well what call the coach is going to want to challenge anyway.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 38426

ijohnb

September 18th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^

The NFL is a mess.  I have trouble watching one series of NFL football, like one offensive possession, let alone full NFL games.  There is nothing original or organic about it.  Every college football game is like its own "local pub" with different recipes, traditions and nuances.  NFL Football is basically McDonalds. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

M-jed

September 18th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^

my 6th grader had a "homework assignment" last night where he had to watch 15 minutes of football (gym class). I said, "perfect, you can watch MNF when we get home." He says, "I hate the NFL." So he re-watched the Texas-USC game from last weekend instead of a live NFL game! 

Joined: 10/09/2010

MGoPoints: 3073

jabberwock

September 18th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^

McDonalds is an ok Metaphor,
but I'd rather go with the Applebees/Chillis out on the hwy business-spur/mall parking lot of AnyTown USA.  They are interchangeable with each other as well as each location.  If you would like a generic whiskey bbq burger (with Applewood smoked bacon®) on an "artisan" bun served by a disinterested drone sporting the bare minimum amount of required flair, then welcome to the NFL.

Joined: 07/04/2008

MGoPoints: 51146

Spork

September 18th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^

Isn't this like the entire reason that we watch televised sports? For the entertainment value of actually watching something happen? Sure, the coaches and refs could verbally communicate all the business of penalties, challenges, etc. But doesn't it add to the entertainment to have visual signals like the ref throwing a flag, making arm signals, etc.?

Joined: 10/06/2015

MGoPoints: 237

mgobleu

September 18th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

If the coach would pitch the little beanbag way out on the field and preferably at the ref's head; yeah sure. But It's always like this pathetic little dog and pony show where they rummage around in their pants for a second then pathetically drop the thing at their own feet in the world's saddest possible method of displaying their disgust at a BS call. 

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 38426

wahooverine

September 18th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^

It's not for theatrics.  It's so the coach's intention is unambiguous to all in the stadium and is visually documented. The coaches don't have to yell or wave if a ref isn't in earshot or looking, and it's clear he requested a challenge if the refs don't see him and let the next play go.  By your logic the refs don't need yellow flags either, they can just point and say that's a foul we're gonna look at ajudicate after the play!  Everybody knows what foul they talking about anyway right?

Joined: 11/14/2011

MGoPoints: 6799

Michigan4Life

September 18th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^

It's not a trick play. They're coached not to move if alerted that there's offside because one it is to make sure the defense is flagged for offside, not the OL for false start and it catches defense off guard. It's a common tactic among spread offense team especially for uptempo type of offense

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 25143

1VaBlue1

September 18th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^

It was offsides, and should have been blown dead due to the 'unabated progress towards QB' thing.  But the incompetent officials were incompetent, and let the SMU QB get his head taken off in a completely legal, but unneeded, manner.

Sonny Dykes should have saved his 15-yd personal for screaming at the refs after that play, rather than after his dummass time outs!

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 126751

gronostaj

September 18th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^

Not sure where I should post this, but I can't stop watching this given the terrible officiating on Saturday. Makes me pretty happy. Also, Ben Mason's stock is up for me. 

Joined: 09/07/2015

MGoPoints: 2952