This Week's Obsession: Bright Futures
The Question:
Ace: We're halfway through the season, and I'm in no mood to ask the standard "how is the team doing compared to expectations?" for obvious reasons. Instead, for a more positive outlook, let's keep our eyes on the future: Which player on each side of the ball has exceeded your expectations for them heading into the year? Has anyone, in your opinion, gone from question mark to potential star?
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Seth: There has been so little good news from the offense that Jack Miller's play has gone largely unnoticed. I was ready to write him off after last year to the point where I was writing off the entire OL because Miller still had a job on it. Mea culpa; there's no whiff of Rimington in his future, but it appears the dude can ball.
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| Miller seems to be involved in much of the offense's little bursts of running competence. [Fuller] |
We haven't had a UFR for awhile, but when those do come out I bet you'll find the run game's quiet progress can be largely attributed to Miller pulling off the occasional block in a gap nobody but Molk has any business getting to. Even earlier in the season there were Miller-generated holes that the RBs just missed. Did you hear me, People of Earth Who Lived Through the Neg-Two and 27 for 27? THERE WERE HOLES! Upperclassmen are nice, and also a nice reminder that most OL take a long time to develop.
On defense it's Ryan Glasgow, with Jourdan Lewis running a close second. Remember what you thought when you first heard Glasgow was atop the depth chart? You thought "Oh dear, Pipkins is still damaged and a walk-on is ahead of everyone else." That seems like forever ago; it was six weeks ago.
It took just a few games for Glasgow to earn the Order of St. Kovacs, his asterisks packed away for his eventual NFL destination to do human interest stories. I remind you even the Great and Mighty Kovacs spent a season as the opposite of Ed Reed (and went out, miserably, on a play that reminded us how much he wasn't Ed Reed). Some decent run outfits haven't been able to get anywhere against Michigan except when Glasgow rotates out, and there have even been a few GRrraaaarrr plays of brute strength to hint at a higher ceiling.
His game could use some pass rush, but has exceeded expectations to the point that I want Adam to ask the coaches where was guy this last year when they were playing Jibreel Black at nose? I'll say this for Brady Hoke: when he's gone, I suspect I will dearly miss the Heininger Certainty Principle.
[jump for people saying positive things about offensive players, perhaps]
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Brian: I don't think anyone is exceeding expectations on offense. The interior line has been better, but they are just barely keeping their heads above water and I'm finding that the Rutgers success was more because Rutgers didn't bother setting the edge all game than any particular blocking wonderment. Meanwhile the tailbacks keep missing holes, the receivers don't do much, and Gardner is just a wreck. There is no one I can point to that I feel confident asserting is going to be a good player down the road.
On defense it's obviously Glasgow, who has spearheaded a generally very good rushing defense and scored well in the UFRs. Lewis also looks the part of a future star, as mentioned, but people were hyping him up and leery about a walk-on on top of the NT depth chart so he's less of an outlier.
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| Nicest surprise: the defensive tackles, especially Glasgow [Fuller] |
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BiSB: Offensively, maybe Mason Cole? For a true freshman left tackle, he's been pretty okay, and if he develops over time under Coach [YourNameHere], he could be quite good. Maybe Jehu Chesson? I dunno. Please don't make me talk about this.
Defensively, because Brian took Ryan Glasgow, I'll say Willie Henry. Coming into the year, we were talking about Henry as a potential breakout player who would still alternate between stunning plays and Y U DO THAT plays. But what we've gotten has been much more consistent than we expected, and the stunning plays have been very impressive. Given the learning/growth curve for big guys, and the fact that Big Willie was a project, his arc is very positive.
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Ace: In retrospect, I probably should've given a moment's thought to the offense, since it's hard to disagree with Brian here—nobody is exactly blowing past expectations on that side of the ball, and now one of the players who'd shown flashes of even meeting his expectations is out for the year. My bad for messing up an attempt at an optimistic question, everyone.
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| Gardner seems to recognize that there's a true freshman guarding his back; he's yet to figure out the freshman isn't doing so bad. [Fuller] |
That said, I'll mention Jake Butt, since he's rounding into form after making no impact in the first couple games. For a player coming off such a recent ACL injury, he's made remarkable strides physically, and he continues to look like a future all-conference tight end. While his progression hasn't yet made a huge impact on the stat sheet or the overall success of the offense, he should continue to see more time as he gets more comfortable on that knee, and the team will benefit from having a true block/catch, hand-in-the-dirt TE who can play every down and even split out wide and remain effective. While Butt is essentially remaining on the four-star path, matching his expectations out of high school, the ACL injury could've thrown him badly off track; it doesn't appear that's happened.
Glasgow is one clear answer on defense, so I'll put forth the other: Jourdan Lewis. He's shown from day one that he can stay in a receiver's hip pocket, and now he's developing the requisite instinct needed to play the ball in the air well on a consistent basis. Rutgers went after Blake Countess time and again last weekend; Nova rarely looked in Lewis' direction. Those looking for a Cass Tech corner to pan out can call off the search—Lewis is heading towards lockdown corner status, even on a defense where much of the secondary has failed to live up to expectations (or, alternatively, stay healthy), and all bets are off if the playmaking ability he had in high school works its way back into his game at this level.
Taco Charlton should also get a mention here, even if his run defense isn't totally consistent right now. He's a physical marvel who's starting to put it together as a pass-rusher, and he's given Michigan a much-needed lift in that regard on a few occasions this season, in addition to blowing up a few runs and QB rollouts with his hard-to-handle combination of size and athleticism. He's come a very long way in a short few years—remember, he was considered a project pass-rushing specialist as a junior in high school—and his future looks very bright indeed.
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Adam: On offense:
[chirp]
On defense, I'll have to echo Ace's sentiment and go with Jourdan Lewis. Coming into the season I expected the most frequently deployed corners to be Blake Countess, Ray Taylor, and Jabrill Peppers at nickel. While the injury caveat applies here, I'm still surprised at how good Lewis has looked. We knew about his vaunted closing speed coming into the year, but to see him use that while also being able to press and SHORYUKEN guys has been truly impressive.
October 8th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^
October 8th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
I think that Norfleet is still sacrilegiously underutilized again. And given the offense's woes, I think he would be a positive surprise if made a more focal part of the offense.
October 8th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^
offense. He has done a nice job in the slot beyond the once a game jet sweep of last year. He needs to see the ball more often.
October 8th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^
The entire offense has generally underperformed all year and Norfleet is not an offensive star by any stretch, but he's the only guy who consistently looks like he gives a damn (on that side of the ball), which is (albeit, unfortunately) refreshing.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
I agree that he's under-utilized, but he's been somewhat disappointing in the downfield passing game. Basically, unless he's catching a screen or bubble, he has no ball skills whatsoever. Aside from perhaps A.J. Williams, Norfleet looks to have the worst hands of anyone targeted this season.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
While I agree that Norfleet's hands may be suspect, I feel the offense in general rarely takes shots downfield, even targeting a certain 6'5 230 WR that runs like a deer.
For me, it's hard to tell whether it's a coaching decision to run short-intermediate routes, or a Gardner/Morris confidence issue where they aren't willing to step up and throw the longball, and would rather take the "low-risk, low reward" throw.
October 8th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
*deer with an ankle injury
October 8th, 2014 at 3:01 PM ^
Has he actually been targeted enough downfield to call him disappointing though? Small sample sizes here. I think this is still a transition year for him given how unused he was last year. Still, his motor and effort are unquestionable, and he's definitely dangerous in space. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the backfield from time to time.
October 8th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
has played well and looks like a future star, he clearly is flourishing within the new defensive scheme. However, the trade off has been Countess, who looks like a shell of his former self. At first I wanted to blame coaching, but am starting to think the scheme just does not suit his strengths (zone coverage). So my question to everyone, who has been the biggest disappointment thus far?
October 8th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
This is difficult to say because I loved both of these guys, and thought they were going to explode this year...
On offense it has to be Gardner, right? Not totally his fault, but everyone was talking about him taking the leap this year under Nuss and instead he has taken the fall. We have not seen a single game resembling ND or OSU this year where he just took over. His performance this year makes it seem like that isn't going to happen either.
On defense, has to be Countess. Wearing #2, thought of as a All B1G first team contender and instead has been the biggest liability on defense. He cannot keep guys from getting inside on him on slants and has blown some coverage deep as well. Disappointing season for him.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
I know he's been hurt, and of course he's a junior with just one more year of eligibility after this season, but it seems that his injury has significantly hindered the pass defense. He's consistent, even if he isn't making big plays. But anyone else they put back there isn't nearly as strong as he is.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
I'm no UFRer but, for some reason, I feel like Michigan has ran the ball better with Kalis in the game. Maybe that falls outside the realm of "exceeding expectations" but the O-Line seems to not be a tire-fire for the ground game with him in. I think it bears mentioning at least.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
I've been wondering if there is negative side to the Heininger Certainty Principle that nobody has really commented on...
While it seems to raise the floor of the d-line to competent-to-good, does it also lower the ceiling so that it's never elite?
Or does it only apply to improved performance against the run, while sacrificing pass pressure?
October 8th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
Looking ahead to 2015's team I am trying to figure out who has the star potential - or who are the replacements for Clark, Ryan, Funchess as the team's best players.
Right now my list is limited to Henry, Lewis*, Butt, Peppers****
I am asterisking (is that a word?) Lewis because (a) he was dominant v Utah but (b) he does still get beat yet (c) when he does get beat he is stride for stride with the WR unlike our other CBs who are often not in the same TV shot.
Peppers we have seen 1.5 game out of, and that game was Miami OH. Which most of our players looked great against. I am assuming he is good but who really knows.
What worries me about 2015 is we could have 2 very good starting CBs who will be imploded by the lack of pass rush. The outlook for 2015 DE - at this moment - scares me. Mario O does not get much push at all, and Charlton is a young guy who flashes here and there. Behind them are guys like Poggi and Marshall - either non factors or unknowns. I was hoping a Roseboro would come in and be pushing next year but that's gone. Even great CBs are not going to hold down their WRs for more than 4-5 seconds.
Anyhow those are my 4 "stars" for 2015. The talent seems to drop off after that unless you are ready to jump on the annual hype train of guys we have barely seen i.e. Mone, Ty Isaac, Canteen.
With the QB situation as is, and no impact WRs seen right now - 2015 offense remains incredibly worrisome while the 2015 defense seems a lot like this years, some nice players surrounded by some ok players.
October 8th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
Why doesn't Hecklinski get the same ire that Funk does?
The WRs this year seem to be really struggling...both in blocking and in running routes crisply...they tend to appear to be either slow or not that clear about what they should be doing. And once they aren't open, the jailbreak to get open appears to not be in their coaching...they stand and watch.
October 8th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
As far as blocking I think Funchess is the only receiver solidly below average in that category, and he wasn't being coached by Heck until this year. Chesson and Norfleet are plus guys in that regard. But yeah, route running seems to be an issue. Then again, it's probably tough to keep up 100% effort when you'll never see a target unless you're running the primary route on a play.
October 8th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
October 8th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
Gallon is just a driven, awesome dude. Funchess a freak athlete. The blocking has been poor from most already.
I'm really getting frustrated watching our receivers get ZERO separation. I don't think it's purely athleticism.
I don't personally think Heck has done poorly, but is there anything else he could be doing?
October 8th, 2014 at 7:26 PM ^
October 8th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
is they have a 1st round pick in Funchess and he's been hurt in the past few games to the point where he can't run as well when healthy. I've heard rumblings that he's almost a mortal lock to get drafted at 1st round because he's a freak athlete at 6'5" and NFL are gravitating towards bigger WRs. Throw in his freakish athleticism, he'll be drafted at 1st round as a WR, not TE.
October 8th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
What's sad about that in the slightest?
October 8th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
I thought his play was encouraging. Obviously, it's baby steps for a guy whose entire psyche needs to be rebuilt. And partly it was weird gratitude that Nuss let him freelance at all. But I want to keep believing that they're finding a way--or maybe Hoke is giving Nuss the latitude--to game plans that better accommodate his talent.
October 8th, 2014 at 3:40 PM ^
whats going on here? To boil it down to something simple why has this year been such a debacle? We got rid of Borges, the OL has improved, the running backs and defense are better but....this season is lost. With all the expert insight and meta-analysis nobody really expected that this season would be over half way through the schedule. We've heard about the players and the schemes but what intangbles, leadership lapses, chemistry issues, bad karma etc are causing this outlier result?
October 8th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^
Nuss is trying to teach the offense a scheme that works, but it takes time to learn. Everyone's tired of hearing the word "execute" but the thing about IZ + constraint is, if you execute it properly, it's impossible to stop. Don't overplay it and it'll get 4-5 yards, enough to move the chains, like clockwork. Overplay it and Nuss opens up the play book. This is how it works. The base play puts pressure on the D, and from there it's not hard to have an answer for everything the D tries to do.
The problems are that it takes years to learn, is very tough to execute consistently, and in the meantime without those 4-5 yards to count on, opposing Ds can rely on confusion (slants, stunts, blitzes) as opposed to numbers and wait for Michigan to make a mistake. The same IZ-killers are effective against pass pro, which pressures the QB. This forces some urgency, which leads to turnovers. It's only when the play forces extra defenders into the box that the offense opens up, and in the meantime that requires the line, the RB and the QB to figure out every sort of alignment a DC can think of.
When Borges got fired we did get rid of someone I feel was an overrated OC, but also one that could win games when he's on. Everyone remembers the ugly losses but he also schemed some wins (and near-wins) that by rights we shouldn't have had. Well, that's what we gave up. There is no occasional offensive clinic with infantile IZ. Until the team gets it together, the mediocre defenses will shut it down and the elite defenses -- ogod I don't want to think of what MSU is gonna do. But again, this is not the kind of offense that will show productivity in spurts. It is going to suck until it stops sucking, at which point it will be very hard to stop, but that will not be relatively soon.
As for the D, in hindsight I think Mattison went too "mee too" after getting PWND by MSU's defense. Michigan's bend-don't-break D last year was frustrating to watch but it kept us in most games and got its fair share of turnovers. This year's D is just as vulnerable to short passes in the middle of the field and doesn't get turnovers. Moving JMFR made logical sense but now it looks like the D doesn't effectively use our two best players. Maybe Mattison was also trying to build something here but with the offense starting over as well, the timing couldn't have been worse.
October 9th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
your explanation makes sense. What doesn't make sense now is that we are trying to build something for the future that obviously if there is a coaching change will be for naught , as we will have to start all over again both offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff likely dooming the team to more years of mediocre football. The only other alternative is to....stick with the current coaches and let all of this mature over time?!
October 8th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
Am I the only one who thinks Mason Cole is a future top-3 NFL draft pick? MGoBlog repeatedly talks about how at OL, it's impossible to be good unless your a RS sophomore or more -- yet here we have a true freshman as our best lineman at left tackle no less!
I'm shocked he wasn't unanimous pick for brightest potential star on offense.
October 8th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
Yes, I believe you are. He's a true freshman. It's waaaaaaay to early to tell how he's going to turn out. He's been adequate at best. Which, for a true freshman left tackle, is still quite impressive, yes. However, to call him the best lineman on the team is most certainly a stretch. After Glasgow, everyone else is still pretty meh. I'm also in the camp that thinks Miller shouldn't be playing too. He seems to have a pretty good idea what he's supposed to do (which is good). But, i do get a little tired of seeing him get doubled over backwards because he's just not as big or strong as the guys lining up across from him. To me, the ideal line (with Mags healthy) would be to have Glasgow at center with Kalis at RG.
October 8th, 2014 at 9:10 PM ^
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