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THE QUESTION:

The bracket: region by region, winner, favorite low seed, upset picks?

THE EAST:

Ace: (points and laughs at MSU)

Brian: It is crazy that MSU got stuck with Duke because they're slightly closer to that regional, which is 500 miles away. And Michigan gets virtual home games in LA if they get that far.

Seth: Here's my hot take about the East: State gets to walk to Duke and I'd take it over ours.

Brian: They already lost to Louisville this year!

Ace: State is opposite the weakest three-seed, in my opinion. I wasn’t super sold on LSU before they lost their coach and started playing games that’ll almost certainly be wiped out in a couple years.

Seth: I am guessing they have learned they have to use Tillman now even if Izzo will still complain after the game that he couldn't play Ward.

Ace: But I don’t that’s worth being in Duke’s region.

Brian: Yeah LSU is ripe for an early exit but the roadblock right after rather looms. Oh right I guess we're doing the EAST REGION currently.

BiSB: MSU's draw is... weird?

Ace: Along those lines, I like Belmont as a sleeper pick if they can get through the First Four game. 11 seeds are the new 12 seeds.

Brian: The one thing that might alarm me if I'm Duke is that I might get UCF in the second round.

Seth: Aubrey! And yeah, the 7'6" guy.

[AFTER THE JUMP: three more regions and a Final Four.]

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Brian: Tacko Fall versus a team that really does not shoot threes well. I mean, they'll probably still win by 20 but I want to see Fall vs Zion.

Ace: Fall’s gonna be on some posters, but Duke does have the profile of a team that can be tripped up. RJ Barrett is immensely talented but he’s also one of the most frustrating players in the country to watch — constant drives into traffic. I can’t remember where I read/heard this but he led the country in turnovers via charge by a large margin.

Seth: I do think we will see that matchup. VCU lost to Rhode Island twice this year. Their calling card is they defend the three well.

Brian: ...but also they have the best efficiency margin since the 38-1 Kentucky team.

Ace: Yeah, clearly the favorite to win the whole thing. Still, it was jarring how much worse they were when Zion was out.

Alex: I want so badly to believe that Duke Isn’t That Good—and I think they’ve become overrated with how many people have coalesced around the belief that they are the clear favorite—but...They’re good. Despite the lack of shooting, despite the lack of depth. The Zion hype is completely out of control though, even if he is a transcendent talent.

Ace: Counterpoint: it’s kinda hard to overstate how awesome he is to watch. Dude isn’t just dunking, he’s threading transition dimes through multiple defenders.

Brian: I just wish I didn't have to hear about him on every single college basketball broadcast. Grambling State vs Norfolk State: HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT OUR LORD AND SAVIOR ZION?

Seth: I went through this with LeBron too, where I want to appreciate how awesome the player is but it's hard to do that when the multimedia conglomerate sitting next to you won't shut up him for the most cynical reasons.

BiSB: Zion is great and all, but we may be burying the lede here in the East: LOUISVILLE vs. PITINO

Brian: "if you stacked the entire starting lineups from both teams on top of each other you'd have about 1 Zion, you know"

Ace: Is basketball season over in the Greek League?

Brian: No, I never want to talk about Zion again

Ace: Rick may have to catch a long flight.

BiSB: It seems very weird to me that Michigan State would be guaranteed a rematch in the second round

LIGHTNING ROUND

EAST WINNER:

BiSB: Duke

The Mathlete: ZION

Seth: Michigan State, after Zion fouls out in 10 minutes.

Ace: Zion and the Chargy Brick-Layers

Brian: Also Duke

TEAM YOU'RE PICKING IF YOU GET SEED X WINS POINTS FOR PICKING THEM:

Seth: UCF cumong.

Ace: Whichever team wins the 11 play-in game. I don’t trust LSU at all. Nor do I trust Mark Turgeon coaching in a tournament game.

BiSB: Yale probably isn't gonna win, but I'll say Yale

Seth: Yale does have the best player in the Ivy League.

Ace: Weirdly, if I had to pick another it’d be Minnesota, but that’s mostly because I don’t like the low seeds in this region.

Brian: I got Louisville. 7 seed vs a team it already beat, albeit at home.

Seth: Yeah most of the weird teams that can trip up a high seed are in our bracket. Fortunately in the Gonzaga part of it. But I don't see a lot of upsets in the East.

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THE WEST

Ace: Do not watch Syracuse-Baylor. Just don’t do it.

Brian: It's at 9:57 so everyone reading this will be watching Michigan-Montana II

Slackbot: We agreed never to discuss that again.

BiSB: "Hold my bleach" ~South Region

Brian: And maybe flipping it on late to see which horrible zone Gonzaga gets in round 2.

Ace: I didn’t even know the 1-2-2 was a thing until Baylor started playing it as their base this year.

BiSB: OTOH, Marquette/Murray State will, as the kids say, be a banger.

BiSB: (do the kids say that?)

Brian: Could be 50% usage vs 50% usage.

Ace: Markus Howard vs Ja Morant is going to be insanely fun, yes.

Brian: Markus Howard is what Ace hoped Poole was going to be this year

Ace: : /

Brian: I guess we all hoped for that.

Ace: Some of us more aggressively than others, admittedly.

BiSB: Some hoped. Some had commemorative shirts made in advance.

Brian: I think folks are overlooking FSU.

Seth: Just like last year they could beat anybody or lose to anybody. Maybe not Vermont.

Brian: They are giant and they've improved substantially on D.

Ace: I like them a lot in a tournament setting. Brought back most of last year’s team, go ten-deep, have a lot of size. They lack a real star but that also makes them kinda hard to shut down.

The Mathlete: Speaking of unwatchable games, how bad would an FSU vs Zone S16 game be.

BiSB: Yeah, "tallness" travels well.

Brian: They're also playing well down the stretch: Ws over VT twice and Virginia in their last 6. Duke got 'em, but Duke.

The D in TT [Viva the Matadors]

Seth: Everybody not involved is going to want to skip Michigan-TTU.

Ace: Texas Tech has that ferocious defense but they rely heavily on Jarrett Culver, Matthews-sized wing. I do think they get through the first weekend pretty easily, though.

Seth: I am so dreading that game. Matthews is going to shut down Culver and Texas Tech is going to force Michigan into 8 minutes of shot selection that my hair may not survive.

The Mathlete: I think Buffalo is a major wild-card

Brian: Yeah, I'm suspicious of high tempo teams against lockdown Ds. Buffalo is 3rd in offensive tempo.

Ace: Yet another spot where a run by the play-in winner at the 11 wouldn’t be shocking. So, uh, we haven’t talked about the one-seed at all yet?

BiSB: Buffalo's pace is interesting. #3 in offensive tempo, but #276 in defensive tempo.

Brian: Texas Tech does suffer a lot of steals but that looks to me like a team that is going to strangle Buffalo in the half-court.

The Mathlete: I don't know, I think the play-in game selections were atrocious and none of those teams are any good

Brian: Gonzaga! I predict that if Michigan gets to the E8 they do not see Gonzaga.

The Mathlete: Trent Frazier was the KP MVP when Gonzaga played Illinois

Ace: They’re also the only team to beat Duke when they were at full strength this year.

BiSB: And they put up 90 on North Carolina, but lost because UNC went 13-25 from deep.

Brian: 90 in an 84 possession game.

BiSB: True. But that was a Thruck game, and it was on the road.

Brian: Their defensive output against top 50-ish nonconference teams (Washington is 51):

• Duke: 1.21 PPP
• Creighton: 1.21 PPP
• Washington: 1.18 PPP
• Tennessee: 1.12 PPP
• UNC: 1.23 PPP

Ace: They have a couple legit first-round prospects in Hachimura and Clarke. They’d be a tough matchup for Michigan — they’re switchable on defense and would put a lot of pressure on the frontcourt on the other end.

BiSB: They also haven't played a Top-30 team since before Christmas.

Seth: And just lost to Saint Mary's, and that (Gaels were 4/14 from three) was not a Thruck game.

Ace: This is what makes them so hard to pin down every year. Right now they’re 4-3 in what Torvik categorizes as quality games while most teams around them have played 17 to 20 such games, but they’re third in adjusted efficiency margin in those games.

Michigan is second, which is nice.

Brian: 28% of their shots are in transition and they have a 64% eFG. They're very good in the halfcourt but I don't know if they can outplace their defense.

LIGHTING ROUND

WEST WINNER

BiSB: Imagine they play a team prone to offensive droughts, though…

Seth: Beilein vs. Few in a tournament setting? Gimme Michigan.

BiSB: Michigan.

Ace: Gonzaga.

Brian: I think Texas Tech wins a S16 game vs Michigan and goes on to thrash the other side of the bracket.

SEED X WINS PICK

Seth: Nevada.

BiSB: Murray State.

Ace: Syracuse has quite some precedent here.

Brian: This region feels so chalk, FSU

The Mathlete: Murray St

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THE SOUTH

BiSB: /giphy my eyes the goggles do nothing

Seth: Gardner-Webb.

Ace: Their mascot is wonderful.

Brian: Purdue-Villanova would be lit.

The Mathlete: Carsen Edwards just took four 3's since we started this region.

Brian: Ryan Cline and Collin Gillespie

Ace: I can’t decide whether Nova is going to make a surprise Final Four run or flame out in the first round.

Slackbot: stupid ginger

Seth: Speaking of unwatchable basketball: Wisconsin-Oregon followed by one of those teams versus Kansas State.

Ace: Oregon was briefly favored in that game, which struck me as a massive overreaction to a terrible conference tournament. Evidently it also struck the betting public that way because that line flipped.

BiSB: On the other hand, the committee made sure that only one of Virginia, Wisconsin, and Kansas State would reach the Elite Eight, so It could be worse.

Brian: Good God Happ's going to put up 30.

Ace: Yeah, Oregon very notably no longer has Bol Bol.

Brian: And they try to block absolutely everything. Happ up and under moves will work 6 times in a row

Ace: I also just expect the Pac-12 teams to be shocked at the general quality of basketball. God that league sucked this year.

The Mathlete: Oregon has 7 losses to non-tourney teams

Brian: Iowa beat them by 8 when they had Bol

Seth: Tempo ranks:

• Oregon: 328th
• Wisconsin: 332nd
• Kansas State: 342nd
• Virginia: 353rd

This bracket is going to be decided in 200 plays.

The Mathlete: They're all on the same side of the bracket, to boot.

Brian: I like turtles.

BiSB: I have not watched a minute of Oregon basketball because why would I... but their defensive numbers aren't terrible?

Brian: I watched a couple of their games and Wooten is a great off ball defender and way too aggressive on the ball. He'd be great against Fernando.

BiSB: Seven of their last eight defensive outings were <.92 ppp.

Brian: You are right that they did take off late.

Ace: What terrifies me about this region is the team I like most to come out of it is coached by Rick Barnes.

BiSB: (PAC 12, tho...)

The Mathlete: Yeah, Tennessee is intriguing until you think about who is on the sideline

Ace: I think Barnes has been better since he got away from running a one-and-done factory at Texas and settled in with more four-year guys, but I’ve still seen some things.

Brian: Any intrigue from the double digit seeds here? UC Irvine has the #1 two point D in the country...and is 58th in adjusted efficiency, sooooo

BiSB: Rock fight.

Ace: I don’t love KSU, so that could be a decent pick.

The Mathlete: KSU's best player is likely out or limited, too

BiSB: Iowa can score points.

They could get hot and Bohannon Cincinnati and Tennessee.

Brian: I don't know what to make of St Mary's. Better than most of the 8-10 seeds on Kenpom but lost to everyone relevant out of conference except New Mexico State and was just 11-5 in the WCC.

Good Ol' Tommy Amaker brought 'em down.

Seth: What about ODU? Positionless basketball, got a good point guard, Purdue is always one Carsen Edwards cold night away from going down.

Ace: Yikes. On the other hand, this is not last year’s Villanova team.

BiSB: (Please ignore Iowa's recent and not-so-recent postseason history, thanks)

Brian: (I may have watched the Ivy League final rooting for Harvard so I could once again launch into my Tommy > Shaka take)

Seth: (VCU beat Texas)

Ace: (:neutral_face:)

Brian: If Edwards does not take 20 shots Purdue wins their opener in a walk. If he takes 30, anything could happen.

Seth: I'm sayin, guys. Old Dominion.

LIGHTNING ROUND

SOUTH WINNER

Ace: Tennessee. They’re big, balanced, and experienced.

Seth: Tennessee, Barnes and all. I mean: find the hole?

Ace: And not Virginia.

BiSB: Yeah, Tennessee.

Brian: We didn't say a word about Virginia but this is it. This is the year.

BiSB: For...?

Seth: /giphy UMBC

Brian: They're going to the Final Four baby.

Ace: C’monnnnnn, Runnin’ Bulldogs.

Brian: They have the perfect regional of tourney failures to fail through.

Ace: FACE OF AN UPSET

Brian: SEED X WINS PICK

Ace: GARDNER-WEBB

Sorry, that dog is great, I overreacted.

Uh… Saint Mary’s?

Brian: Villanova. Edwards takes 45 shots in round 2

Ace: We appear to be targeting the same spot.

BiSB: I just considered all 16 teams, and... yeah, I got nothing.

Seth: I'm sticking with O.D.U. They can get to Tennessee then do what Auburn did and jack up 40 threes. I just looked at the game I was thinking of and it was 34 threes. Then I remembered no it was the SEC championship game. They shot 74 threes in two games.

Ace: UC Irvine seems like the best bet of the 13-seeds?

So that’s something.

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MIDWEST REGIONAL

Seth: Why? Why would you put all the upsets in one bracket?

Brian. In which a team we beat the daylights out of is the one seed. Largely because Zion got hurt. But since MSU is the top two seed…

BiSB: WOFFORD

Sorry, we're not to that question yet.

/waits patiently

Brian: No we can Wofford. Co you think Beilein has pictures of Fletcher Magee stashed around his office? 42% on 322 threes. Also he's 93% from the line.

Seth: Does he have any eligibility left? Asking for an autobenching friend.

Brian: Aaaand they've got another guy who's 89% from the line and 46% from three.

BiSB: In their last 20 games, they rose from #71 to #20 (!!!) in KenPom, despite playing teams that are REALLY hard to use for resume-boosting purposes.

Ace: They shoot 41.6% from three as a TEAM. Jesus.

Brian: Shooting is shooting. Five years ago they'd be on the 12 line and everyone would be 1) screaming about it and 2) picking them to the second weekend easy.

Ace: So, yeah, even before looking at that stat, my prediction was gonna be that the bottom half of this region gets wild.

Seth: This is the problem with today's smarter committee. I used to make sweet 5-12 upset picks.

Brian: Yeah and then the fun 12/13 seeds that used to get through are drawing 1s and 2s instead. But I guess we can't complain immediately after last year's wack-ass tourney.

Seth: Right. The nun.

Ace: There have also been more low-seed runs to the Final Four recently than ever before.

Brian: Can we talk about how weird New Mexico State is?

The starting lineup

Ace: It’s what the people want.

Seth: Craig Ross doesn't want.

Brian: they're a Polyphonic Spree concert

Two of those guys play banjo. WHO NEEDS TWO BANJOS?

Ace: Twelve different guys have started/played auxiliary percussion.

BiSB: Trevelin Queen was an overrated album IMO.

Brian: their only two guys with 24%+ usage play under 15 MPG

Ace: My god, 49.8% bench minutes.

Brian: they have a 121 ORTG, 24% usage guy (Queen) who plays 10 MPG.

Seth: If you can lock the stretch trombonist on the floor you can run on them.

BiSB: They've won 19 in a row.

Ace: They have lower two-foul participation than Michigan!

Brian: and, drumroll... they're 307th in offensive tempo

Ace: wut

Brian: They're not even fast.

Seth: Not on the whole, but I'm not kidding here: they have a tempo team. PG AJ Harris is a meep meep speedster.

BiSB: #20 in 3PA/FGA. #1 in assist rate against.

Brian: We should have done the whole roundtable where I just say New Mexico State facts and people try to hold it together.

BiSB: Just a weird team.

Ace: That’ll lose to Auburn, a team I like to make a little run here.

Kansas always feels like a rickety pick and this year’s team didn’t even win the Big 12 for the first time in forever.

Brian: Auburn's pretty frickin' weird too

#1 TO forced rate nationally, #330 DREBs, #1 steal rate, #5 block rate, shoots half their shots from 3

the perfect matchup for Michigan, stuck in another region

Seth: They're a pair of guards is what they are.

Brian: That would be VCU 2019.

BiSB: With surprisingly un-weird results. Generally won the games you would expect, lost the games you would expect, (except for beating Tennessee twice).

Brian: They lost to South Carolina, but speaking of weird, South Carolina was 11-7 in the SEC.

Ace: Speaking of SEC, we should probably talk about this un-Kentucky-ass Kentucky team.

Brian: I haven't seen any of them. Details?

Ace: The only one-and-done may be a white guy from Wisconsin, Tyler Herro. UK’s not overwhelmingly huge or athletic like they usually are, but they’re more skilled than usual.

Brian: Getting the best player in the Pac-12 is a grad transfer is a thing for them as well. An ominous new front in the one and done wars.

BiSB: They still take no 3's.

Seth: My fancy pick for the lightning round is too good to save for it. I think Northeastern is going to knock off Kansas. Check out this Beilein-ass Kenpom page:

 

22nd in 3PA/FGA, 5th in eFG%, don't OReb, don't turn it over. Bill Coen isn't going to be in Boston for long.

BiSB: Yeaaaaaah I dunno about that one.

Brian: Kansas is super rickety though.

Ace: Not a fan of teams that are that imbalanced, as much as I’m inclined to pick a Jayhawks faceplant.

Brian: Iowa State is the 6 in this regional and is several slots higher on Kenpom than Kansas

Seth: Demorest's good buddy is an Iowa State fan. They're deep in the BPONE about this team.

Brian: And they get a free pass to the second round since OSU isn't taking anyone down

BiSB: Northeastern has two losses to teams outside the KenPom Top 250. Oh no I forgot Ohio State showed up.

Brian: And then the post-Manbun Houston in the second round. I have no idea what to make of them.

BiSB: Why are they not in the South Region of Eye Pain?

Ace: Iowa State slotted in a handful of spots higher in quality games than Houston, per Torvik. I like their chances of making a deep run. Really not sold on that half of the region.

Brian: Houston keeps rotating through like four 6'8 guys at C and relies a lot on block rate. I have a theory that high block rates from small conferences are a bad sign for deep runs.

Ace: Houston’s real nonconference games came at home, otherwise they didn’t really play anyone.

Seth: They also lived off of putbacks. Don't think that's going to happen in the bracket of 4-star bigs.

Brian: Okay.

LIGHTNING ROUND

MIDWEST WINNER

BiSB: UNC by default.

Brian: Same

Seth: Yeah UNC or else I'm talking myself into Auburn. But Wofford would be fun.

Ace: I’ll be the Auburn guy, I do not like this region.

SEED X WINS PICK

BiSB: HERE IS YOUR TRUE BULLDOG HERO

Ace: …I guess Auburn.

BiSB: Pasted image at 2019-03-19, ddd

Brian: Yeah Ace is rather locked into that one. Give me Iowa State.

Ace: Are terriers bulldogs?

BiSB: NO. NOT EVEN A LITTLE.

Brian: When they shoot 42% from three they can be whatever they want.

BiSB: BULLDAWGS

Seth: I said Northeastern but I love the little seeds in this one. I'm taking all of them.

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FINAL FOUR AND PICK A WINNER

Brian: Duke, UNC, Texas Tech, Virginia, did I really pick all three ACC one seeds what am I, Dick Vitale? Under the circumstances I am duty-bound to pick Texas Tech as your national champion.

BiSB: Duke over Michigan, UNC over Tennessee... Duke over UNC to win the best-of-five.

Ace: Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Auburn. I’ll go with the Vols over Duke. Rick Barnes!

Seth: Tennessee over UNC. Michigan vs. Michigan State...

Yeah I'm doing this.

FOURTH TIME'S THE CHARM AND A NATTY LFG!

Brian: how the hell did i just get forced into picking Texas Tech as national champs? Let's start over.