upon further review
shea patterson

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt Comment Count

Brian

23970305497_4ba12745be_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: Patterson had five games against P5 competition before getting knocked out for the year after the LSU game. Two were grim hammerings at the hands of LSU and Alabama where he threw 5 INTs against zero touchdowns and failed to hit 50% completions. Games against Cal, Auburn, and Vandy were much better. This is the Vandy game, chosen first because there's a handy Shea-only reel on the Youtubes.

Now, you hear "Vandy" and expect the Keystone Kops but they were a respectable-ish 5-7 last year and were 17th nationally in pass D S&P+. Their sack rate was almost exactly average, which helped a lot. Initial reviews of the Bama and LSU indicate that the Ole Miss OL fell apart against top-end rushers and Patterson spent a lot of time running for his life.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: The Rebels ran a standard modern passing spread reminiscent of Penn State minus Saquon Barkley. All plays are from the gun; most are three-wide with a flex TE off the line of scrimmage or in the slot.

Their receiving core was stacked back to front, with DK Metcalf, DaMarkus Lodge, Van Jefferson, and AJ Brown all getting 50+ targets. Brown, a potential first round pick next year, is the shortest of those guys at 6'1", 225; he got put in the slot frequently in an effort to get him matched up against nickel corners and safeties.

The Ole Miss OL was also almost dead average in allowing sacks.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M28 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Pass PA hitch Metcalf 3
Quick pitch and catch, CB rallies to tackle ably. (CA, 3)
M26 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -8
LT smoked immediately. He gets a push in; Patterson can step up but has to break a tackle and gets delayed. Vandy rallies to finish. (PR, N/A)
M39 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
An attempt at a bomb on which Metcalf does get over the top of the CB but gets no separation. CB gets an arm grab in and Metcalf can only spear at it with one hand. Throw is perfect. (DO, 2, route-)
M46 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Brown 19
Good pocket, ton of time. Patterson can’t find anyone and his timer goes off; he rolls out. He points his dude to the sideline and then nails him in stride right at the line . Tough call: want him to find someone given the time but he made it work for a chunk. Results-based charting. (DO, 2)
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 8
(Probably) a clever counter to an Ole Miss staple as this looks like double slants to the field and Patterson pumps it; outside WR breaks deep but is covered. Backup plan is the slot converting his slant into a circle route in the vacated area. Open for a chunk. (CA, 3)
O27 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Dorf N/A Inc
Outside WR runs a go. Patterson throws a hitch. (NC, N/A)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6.5 Pass RPO slant Metcalf 58
Basic RPO on which the MLB sucks up to the run fake and an OLB who should absolutely be dropping into this sits and watches the ball. That’s a first down, and then Metcalf and some comical S play turn it into a TD. (CA, 3)
O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Improv N/A Inc
PA and some Vandy hijinks confuse a G and get a DT through clean. DT gets tackled, holding call. Patterson bugs out. He avoids the DE, gets to the sideline, and throws it OOB. (PR, N/A)
M43 1 25 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Jefferson 2
I guess Ole Miss is expecting softer coverage? Or this is a busted screen? I don’t know. Two yard hitch, immediate tackle. This is more or less a screen. (CA, 3, screen)
M45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 10
A good gain but a bit of a woof by Patterson, as the TE arc blocking from him has nobody to block since the entire front ignores Patterson. He gets forced inside by the slot LB and bursts up a seam. Patterson(-2) then slides down after ten yards when ten more beckon.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O45 3 13 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Dig Jefferson Inc
Decent pocket but Patterson has to step up as DEs get around the edge. He can, but he’s boxed in. He fires a dig route that’s debatably open; it’s batted at the LOS. Still gets to the WR but just past his hands. (BA, N/A)
M9 1 26 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Flare screen RB -5
This is dangerous, behind the RB and backwards. RB manages to spear it, and then gets blown up as a WR badly misses a block. (IN, 1, screen)
M4 2 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Well behind Jefferson and a tough out of frame catch attempt fails. (IN, 1)
M4 3 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Flare screen RB 12
Give up and punt. (CA, 3, screen)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 5-1 LB split 6 Pass PA fade Lodge Inc
Patterson misses another fade where his WR gets over the top without separation. Ball Is right at the sideline and only a yard or two off. (IN, 0)
M25 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Cross Brown 27
Blitz sees a standup DE slash inside the RT. Patterson resets outside that guy and fires an impressive crossing route that takes his WR away from the coverage and hits him right in stride. Brown breaks a tackle for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 0/2)
O33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run Zone read keeper Patterson -2
All six guys in the box attack the RB so Patterson pulls. This is a bad idea as Vandy has a clever trap on, converting from a two high look to a one high at the snap by shooting the field-side safety down. He contains, and Brown appears to be running an RPO slant so he’s not thinking about blocking. RPS -2.
O35 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass PA Post Lodge 35
Massive coverage bust is free TD. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O27 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA fade Metcalf Inc
Probably a quick-strike attempt after a TO. Ole Miss crams the boundary with players and gets one on on coverage with Metcalf barely outside a hash. He’s got a ton of room to the sideline; Patterson tries to hit him in stride as if that room doesn’t exist. He barely misses; ball deflects off Metcalf’s fingertips. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O27 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv RB 25
Patterson flushed as a blitz gets through. Poor contain allows him to get out relatively quickly, and the RB pops wide open after converting a dumpoff into something deeper. Patterson finds it and hits him in stride for a big chunk. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O4 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Goal line 7 Run Zone read keeper Patterson 4
Odd triple option-ish play as the TE runs what looks like an arc block for a second and then converts it to a flat route. CB covers it. WR to this side is blocking, though. Patterson(+1) is able to dodge as safety and impressively runs over a corner to score.
M35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 7
Vandy again appears to leave the edge open but fills with a safety. This time the arc TE cuts off a linebacker to the inside; Patterson(+1) is one on one on the edge and gives that S the Forcier with a decisive upfield cut to get a solid gain.
M48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf 34
Another jammed boundary and one vs one in a lot of space. Metcalf loses the route pretty definitively; Patterson should be using the space to the outside—they’re running on the numbers—but instead just throws it like usual. Metcalf makes a Prothro catch to make up for it. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O18 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway Metcalf Inc
Only get a portion of this play. When we come back an OL is five yards downfield on some sort of RPO, Patterson is rolling out, an attempted double move gets crushed, and Patterson dumps it. (not charted, 0)
O30 1 10 Shotgun quad 1 1 3 Dime over 5 Pass Slant Brown 11
Fake the screen everyone runs out of quad into some routes; this time Patterson throws it a bit behind Brown because a linebacker is about to run under him; he keeps the ball away from him and turns a potentially dangerous play into a reception. (DO, 2, protection 1/1)
O19 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
All day in the pocket. Patterson can’t find anyone and dumps it down to the back, turfing a short throw. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
O19 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB draw Patterson 5
RG gets pushed back in Patterson’s lap in an uncomfortable way so he has a choice and bounces out; he’s able to beat a DE to the corner and get a few(+0.5). Weak late hit flag after.
O6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie zero 7 Pass BSF Lodge 6
The perfect, unstoppable back shoulder fade. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
M48 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Comeback Lodge 14
23 seconds left in the half, 2 TOs, Vandy rushes three and leaves a LB in a two-yard zone. Woof. All day, Patterson throws a rope to Lodge for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Deep out Metcalf Inc
Blitz gets a guy through up the gut. Patterson backs off and throws off his back foot; the resulting soft 15 yard out is in the perfect spot but the CB has time to rally because of the velocity and can get a PBU. Pretty good throw all the same since it was either his guy or no one. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O38 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Improv N/A Inc
This is pretty weird as Patterson takes a drop after getting the snap and ends up ten yards behind the LOS. Maybe for the best as line lets a DE through untouched. Patterson has time to survey because of the drop but then has to start moving around. He tries a late sideline throw that doesn’t come off. Think you have ot take your shot here even if it’s a bad idea throw in a normal circumstance. This play starts with 9 on the clock. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)
O38 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Hail Mary N/A Inc
Hail Mary is incomplete.
O29 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slot seam Brown 29
PA and the safety turns his back to the slot receiver? And settles down on the boundary hash? No redirect from slot corner. This leaves a slot seam for Brown open and Patterson calmly nails it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 NIckel even 6 Pass Dig Brown 14
Lot of time and a clean pocket; Patterson surveys and throws a bit high but not too bad to Brown, who converted a very covered hitch into a dig route and got open. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, Brown route +)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 NIckel under 6 Pass Bubble screen Brown 8
Very very soft coverage on the outside; S can’t make a one on one play on Brown. (CA, 3, screen)
M43 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA hitch Jefferson 11
CB blitz might be telegraphed as both WR and QB are prepped for it. Quick hitch before the S can get over for a solid gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
All day, nobody on the screen, no throw, eventual rollout and throwaway. (TA, N/A, protection 3/3)
O46 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 NIckel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
Patterson’s first read is not there and then he’s buried. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M47 3 17 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Comeback Lodge 11
Good protection; second or third read from Patterson finds Lodge coming open on a comeback route well short of the sticks. Patterson pulls Lodge off his feet with a slightly low throw. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
O14 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop Lodge 9
Another CB blitz that converts a route, it looks like, as Lodge just stops when his guy goes in. Patterson sees it and throws it; Lodge runs over the filling S to near a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Flare screen RB Inc
LT fails to cut the playside DE and he bats the ball down. This is not a BA because it’s a screen he has to throw. (not charted, screen, protection 0/1)
M35 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Screen RB 12
Wide open and an easy conversion. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
O49 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 8 Pass Fade WR Inc (Pen +15)
Strange all around here as Vandy goes zero on second and five; instead of running a post or something that would take advantage of it it’s another fade route. This one is way long but probably because the CB latched onto the WR and slowed him, drawing a flag. (not charted, N/A, protection 1/1)
M25 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Hitch Brown 10
Easy conversion as the CB lined up over Brown slides down into the box and then tries to recover. Expecting a run, I guess. Easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

WELL I CERTAINLY FEEL REFRESHED

welcome back

LET'S TALK ABOUT OUR LORD AND SAVIOR SHEA PATTERSON

Sacrelicious as always, I see.

GIVE ME THE GOOD STUFF NOW

This game was sort of muted? Three of Patterson's touchdowns were gifts from Vanderbilt safeties, another long completion was a WR bailout, and aside from one drive that started off in first and 26 somehow, Patterson was almost always operating near midfield or closer to Vandy's goal line. When you get 58 yards on a basic RPO slant…

…you're gonna have a good time. Also when the one-high safety turns his back on the slot receiver and goes to the wrong hash.

The other long TD was so open it wasn't worth clipping.

Despite the ease of the big plays, add it up and it's another level than Michigan's QB play from a year ago:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

What's more, those negative events were almost all of the benign variety: inaccurate balls on tough downfield sideline routes, a ball thrown away despite a lot of time, a failure to understand that the half was about to end. Other than a couple of passes batted at the line (one did not get charted because it was a screen), no Vandy defender touched the ball. There are no starred ohshit throws. The worst thing he did was throw a flare screen behind his running back on the one drive Ole Miss was backed up.

And while he was provided some easy long TD he hit every one of those throws with precision. Patterson's accuracy in this game was impressive. He wasn't just hitting guys, he was hitting them in the facemask. This qualified as one of his less precise throws.

I mentioned it in the table, and then thought "why am I mentioning this completely standard throw?" Because it wasn't in a guy's facemask.

Five DO throws? Are we grading on a hope curve?

Well, I never. While Patterson's TDs were mostly routine throws there were a selection of eye-openers. Ole Miss threw a lot of fades last season—I'm betting that that's one reason they got crushed vs LSU and Alabama—and Patterson displayed excellent, consistent touch on them. Ole Miss's crew of burly WRs is capable with the ball in the air, but they're not exactly blazers. This was a fairly typical outcome of the many fades:

There's not a lot of window there and Patterson hits it. When he missed it was usually a narrow thing. One glanced off DK Metcalf's fingertips…

…others were very good, accurate throws to blanketed receivers, like this Prothro catch:

This is a perfect throw if the WR didn't get beat up on his route. Since he did and your formation—everyone in the boundary, solo WR to field on the hash—is designed to give your WR a ton of room to the sideline on a fade route, I assume the back shoulder is option 1B and should be thrown. There were a couple of these.

OTOH, the back shoulder is in his toolbox and was the throw on Patterson's most impressive TD:

He looked the part of the five-star in this game.

Are you still on this Tate Forcier comparison?

Tate Forcier is a nice comparison! The guy failed out shortly after declaring it was impossible to fail out, yeah. While on the field, he was really promising as a pass-first run-second spread QB. Patterson is also that. Here's his best Tate vs ND impression:

He's not exactly dynamic. He's going to lose in space against a DB or linebacker most of the time, and when Ole Miss did pop him open for a chunk play he slid way too early.

We talked about this a ton last year, but sliding like that is probably more dangerous than just getting tackled.

The other point of comparison with Forcier is Patterson's ability to slide around the pocket, or break outside, and make a play out of busted protections. This incompletion might be Patterson's most impressive pass on the day, as it's a pinpoint back-foot throw that nearly results in a 15-yard out despite the pressure:

Here he's able to re-set in the pocket and find Lodge for a chunk:

He's extremely comfortable on the move, even when rolling left as a right-handed QB.

Patterson's ability to keep plays alive and then strike downfield is very Tate-like… and by God if there's any team configuration that cries out for a Tate-alike, "this team is awesome except for the worst pass protection in the country last year" is it.

What does it mean for the future?

Judgment is withheld until I can get handle on the dual LSU/Alabama debacles, but Patterson's extremely consistent fade delivery leapt out in this game, as did his comfort when throwing from non-standard-pocket-statue body positions.

I think I phrased some of my talk about Patterson poorly, causing folks to think I'm relatively down on him. When I said he doesn't look like a typical five star, what I meant was he didn't look like your typical pro-style lumber-cannon, like Stanford's endless procession of five-star guys who don't quite work out. He looks like a scrappy underdog sort who gets ranked #159th. Then he uncorks those fades.

Comments

DrMantisToboggan

May 7th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^

I think the QBs and WRs contributed a lot to our sack total last year. JOK (and Peters somewhat) held the ball like a MFer and took unnecessary sacks after a duration that you wouldn't even expect a good OL to protect for. We also took coverage sacks for WRs getting jammed up and not getting open. Obviously not making the argument that the OL was actually good, but I think improved QB and WR play will help the sack rate go down a bunch even if the OL were to not get any better (which is improbable). Also the lack of a serious passing threat allowed teams to blitz a good deal as well. When teams can't safely bring 6 all the time and Shea finds improved WRs getting open, our sack rate will plummet.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

Watching From Afar

May 7th, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^

The bowl game was... confusing. But in the game before that, arguably the best pass rush in college football (OSU) got 5 sacks on JOK and at least 3 of them were 5 seconds after the snap after JOK rolled out of the pocket and could have tossed the ball out of bounds, but instead took the sack for fuck all reasons. 3 of them came in the second half as well.

We have a reason to be down onthe OL, but if the interior improves to pick up 1/2 the twists they missed last year, and JBB/Runyan last year is the floor for RT this year (which honestly, wasn't a complete clusterfuck as the year went on) then they need a serviceable LT and things might not be terrible. I say might with the most emphasis you can imagine.

Joined: 10/10/2016

MGoPoints: 15981

Bill22

May 8th, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^

The good news is that we have Ed Warinner to make sure the best 5 are well coached and on the field. I have high hopes for a much improved O-line and offense overall. Very pleased with the coaching changes and addition of Patterson. More than I could have hoped for when the Bowl game mercifully ended on Jan 1.

Joined: 09/07/2016

MGoPoints: 6724

Watching From Afar

May 8th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

That's fair.

I obviously wouldn't say that the passing game woes were completely on the OL. We saw how bad JOK was when he had time to throw so we know it isn't all the OL.

I seriously think the Wisconsin game messed with Peters. His chest was caved in multiple times that game, it was just the last one that finally knocked him out. I think it was the opening drive of the second half in the bowl game that Michigan just marched right down the field and Peters had some pretty good throws. He got into a rythym. But if that rythym was missing, he started staring at the rush and bailing for fear of dying. Should he have? No. But I could understand it a little bit.

Joined: 10/10/2016

MGoPoints: 15981

Blue in Paradise

May 7th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^

LSU. Shea played this game on a bum knee and this game ended his season. Only one of the three interceptions were on Shea - he missed on a long pass and the ball went straight to the deep safety. The second pick was thrown high but bounced off the WR’s hands back to the deep safety. The third pick was a good throw but the CB made a great play wrestling the ball out of the hands of the WR. http://www.espn.com/college-football/video?gameId=400933895 Summary - Ole Miss was moving the ball at times in the 1st half - He was running for his life and getting hit - Receivers we’re getting no separation against the LSU DBs - Ole Miss RBs were making plays on the ground - He looked good In the secnd half when LSU played softer coverage with a big lead Overall, Shea was ok but he/Ole Miss couldn’t make the big play when it was needed. Also, the defense was terrible and put Ole Miss behind the 8 ball right from the get go. The offense must have felt that they needed to be perfect to win. So the biggest difference between Ole Miss last year and Michigan next year is the defense. Shea doesn’t have to be perfect to keep his team in the game. He just needs to take what is there and not turn the ball over.

Joined: 08/14/2016

MGoPoints: 36779

Ron Utah

May 7th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^

That is certainly an upgrade over what we had this season, but it's not all roses.

Pros:

  • Accurate, strong arm
  • Quick release
  • Throws well on the move
  • Nice touch
  • Extends plays
  • Plays with great effort

Cons:

  • Can be slow to make reads and often throws a beat late
  • Can be too negative with his feet (starts to bail/back out of pocket too soon)

That level of QB play likely results in 3-4 more wins last season.  Can't wait for September 1st!

Joined: 02/28/2012

MGoPoints: 8375

KennyHiggins

May 7th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

Saw 2 games in person, and 3 on TV (one of my kids goes there).  Their defense kept them in a good number of SEC games (except Bama, where they got smoked 59-0, after beating K State the week before).  If Shea took them apart as indicated, and plays to that level this year, we win at least 10-11.

Joined: 12/03/2016

MGoPoints: 12486

DrMantisToboggan

May 7th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

They were 67th in overall S&P defense (so, very mediocre), but they were 17th in passing S&P defense, so Shea's game here is against a seemingly Top 20 secondary. Vandy was not always good at rushing the passer last season, but they were good at getting pressure on standard downs, as they were 9th in Standard Down Sack Rate.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

DoubleB

May 8th, 2018 at 3:03 AM ^

Vandy have a good defense last year? 

They gave up 34+ in every SEC game last year except one (dead man walking Tennessee to close the year). And nobody is going to confuse the SEC East with the Big XII on offense.

They finished 100th in rushing yards allowed, 68th in passing efficiency defense, 89th in scoring defense. They gave up 467 yards on 6.1 ypp to the same Florida team Michigan destroyed on defense.

I get the offense, turnovers, and bad special teams didn't help their cause on defense, but this was a mediocre defense at best and probably below that all things considered.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7470

jamesjosephharbaugh

May 7th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^

Shea suddenly went from 5-star-top-rated-QB-in-his-recruiting-class-savior-of-Harball-at-UM to threw-5-INT-and-0-TD-against-LSU-and-Bama

I mean i don't follow everything so closely, but it feels like my optimism just got knocked down a few flights of stairs.

 

Joined: 10/17/2016

MGoPoints: 495

Craptain Crunch

May 7th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^

Kidding aside, it is hard for any QB to perform well against top talent. Shea has talent but it still a question mark as to how he'll fare at Michigan. Jake Rudock came in and did a darn great job considering the circumstances. Assuming he becomes the QB, we all can pray and hope that he puts his signature on the offense and we see him shine at the QB position like we haven't seen in a long time.

Joined: 05/20/2016

MGoPoints: 1526

jamesjosephharbaugh

May 7th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^

Yeah, I hope the best for Shea and the team, but I guess after how high everyone's been on him, I was just surprised by that really ugly stat about Bama/LSU. not having looked at his stats in depth, I just figured the high hopes and expectations from the experts would have been somewhat more tempered with something like that hanging on his record.  what do i know.

Joined: 10/17/2016

MGoPoints: 495

DrMantisToboggan

May 7th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^

Shea played four Top 25 S&P Passing Defenses last year: Auburn (1), Bama (5), Vandy (17), and LSU (20).

 - His combined stat line in those games was 80/138 for 978 yards 6 TDs and 5 INTs.

 - That means his average game against Top 25 passing defenses last year was 20 for 35 for 245 yards and 1.5:1 TD:INT. That's still pretty decent against top competition with a shitty team around him that was usually behind. That is a passer rating of 124.6, which is better than any Michigan QB ended the season with last year.

 - For comparison, we also played four Top 25 passing defenses last year: Wisconsin (8), OSU (12), PSU (13), and Indiana (21). In those games, Michigan QBs combined to go 54/106 for 595 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. That's a passer rating of 99.32. 

 

Even if Shea's 124.6 passer rating against Top 25 passing Ds isn't dominant, it's a 25 point improvement over what we had last year. In the context of the passer rating statistic, that's a giant improvement. 25 points was about the difference between the best mark in the conference last year (Barrett) and the fourth best (Stanley). A 124.6 passer rating is also better than Lewerke posted for the entire year, across all opponents, which I felt the need to point out.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

The Man Down T…

May 7th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^

I figured he would be a major upgrade over last year but a 25 point rating upgrade against the big dogs is huge.  Plus, when the opposing defense has to respect your QB's accuracy and ability, which they didn't last year, it helps the offensive line too.  

Looking back to the OSU game, as the game is slipping away, O'Korn rolls out and keeps his eyes on his primary target, 8 yards in front of him.  He makes the throw and I think it's missed IIRC.  Meanwhile, on that same play, DPJ is wide open at the OSU 10.  He can basically walk in if the throw is made to him and the game changes.  Patterson will make that throw and change the game.  That's what I hope to see.  We get that and it's going to be a good season

Joined: 12/04/2008

MGoPoints: 20133

4th phase

May 7th, 2018 at 10:58 PM ^

Well then compare YPA where Patterson was over 7 ypa against those defenses and we had about 5.6 ypa. So still his numbers look a lot better. For reference 7ypa is about mediocre and 5.6 is about 50 spots in the rankings below that near the bottom in the NCAA.

Joined: 12/12/2017

MGoPoints: 13994

TrueBlue2003

May 7th, 2018 at 5:38 PM ^

and an O line that was better in pass protection than M's last year by a wide margin as they were average and M was 117th!!! in adjusted sack rate last year.

Sooooo, if you think his offense last year was shitty....um, it seems optimistic to think his protection will be better than average in 2018 and it'd be hard for the WRs to be better than what he had at Ole Miss (although this young core has the talent to be better if they've made big improvements in route running).

His defense was atrocious, so yes, it put him in a some big holes and he won't have to deal with that this year.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

mgobaran

May 8th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^

I think turnovers are a big worry for Shea. 12 INT and 8 Fumbles (fumble luck resulted in only 1 lost fumble*) in just 10 games. I'd say many of us thought Speight had fumble/snap issues and he only put 6 balls on the ground in 23 total games. I think Harbaugh is very turnover adverse, and will do everything he can to coach that stuff out of the kid. How he handles that coaching (becomes more proficient vs. slows down decision making process and starts 2nd guessing himself) and how he handles a pro-style offense/snaps under center are my only two hang ups. 

Not saying it's the end of the world or he isn't going to be good. I just think they warrant a question mark until we see how it goes this season. 

Joined: 09/12/2012

MGoPoints: 22811

JFW

May 7th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^

after so long, and running out of content other places? 

 

This post, a real UFR by Brian, was like a cold beer after a long day of yard work. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

bronxblue

May 7th, 2018 at 3:59 PM ^

I'd really like to see the UFR for that Auburn game.  They were down 38-3 before he started pumping out his numbers.  To me, that's more interesting than him sucking against Alabama and LSU, insofar as Alabama makes everyone look stupid and LSU has top-5 athletes across their defense.  

Yes, he looked solid against Vandy.  But I'm starting to get a sneaking suspicion that the next couple months are going to be filled with hyperbole and a whole lotta hand-waving about ignoring certain results from last season.  Because as noted in this article, Patterson made some good throws but also some not-great ones, and a lot of his great day were due to total breakdowns by Vandy.

That said, it is nice seeing football being played more than 10 yards pass the line of scrimmage.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171381

DoubleB

May 8th, 2018 at 3:39 AM ^

The whole run game looks like RPO stuff which Michigan doesn't run (or at least didn't last year). But I like the way he gets rid of the ball and the accuracy with which he does so. He has short and intermediate accuracy and is clearly going through reads and hitting his checkdown / outlet. This alone makes him a significant upgrade over Peters / O'Korn.

He missed a bunch of fades in the first half (a few of which were open). The Forcier comparison on scrambles in the pocket is a good one. There will be some great plays and some terrible plays he makes doing that. His arm strength down the field is questionable (which could be a liability in a play action down the field passing game like Harbaugh's).

As far as what's around him, WRs were clearly better than Michigan's and he had more time to throw than I would have expected.

As far as projecting, hard to do so without knowing what the offense will look like. I'm not sure how he would adjust to an under center offense where his back is turned in the play action pass game or dropping back footwork. I think he's a clear upgrade, but people counting on Baker Mayfield 2.0 will be disappointed.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7470

bronxblue

May 8th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^

I'd argue Peters did a good job going through his progressions when he was given some time.  

He looks good.  He's definitely got a higher ceiling than the players we've seen on the roster.  But I knew the minute I saw this post that of course people would be super-optimistic about him because this was bar-none the best game he had last year against competent opposition.  Had Brian led with the Cal, Alabama, LSU, or Auburn games, I think the optimism would be tempered, and I just want to see how he looks when things aren't quite going his way.  

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171381

DoubleB

May 8th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

"I'd argue Peters did a good job going through his progressions when he was given some time."

Please rewatch the bowl game. There is nothing true about this statement based on that bowl game. He held the ball too long almost every single time. South Carolina gave him pretty basic coverage reads as well--mostly Cover 1.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7470

M-Dog

May 7th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^

Ole Miss got crushed, but Shea actually played pretty well.  

A couple of observations:

1) Michigan will have a much better running game to help out Shea.  Auburn was rushing him with impunity every down.  He was under constant pressure on all downs, not just passing downs.

2) Michigan's defense will help him out much more too.  He was down 35-3 in the middle of the second quarter.  Every punt was an eventual Auburn score.  That puts tremendous pressure on a QB, knwoing that you have to score every drive.

3) Given all the pressure and the lack of help from anybody except his WRs, Shea did not make any big mistakes.  He did not even make any "medium" mistakes.  Just a couple of overthrows and a dropped snap which he picked up.  He looked very poised for the situation.

No, he's not going to single-handedly win big games for you.  That kind of hype is over the top.  He needs support from the rest of the team.  And he'll get it at Michigan, more than he got it at Ole Miss.

He will still have OL issues to deal with, that won't change.   It's not going to be a perfect situation.  But given all that, he still looks better than any QB we have now.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257385

Hail Harbo

May 7th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^

If he was wearing Maize and Blue people would be excoriating him for all the bad passes.  Passes to no one.  Deep passes way way overhead or into no man's land.  Desperate pass to the right sideline for no gain.  Pass to left sideline that was intended for...the hashmark?  Almost lost a fumble when he got tangled up with the RB.  That's just the first half.

Looked eerily similar to JOK.

Joined: 06/18/2015

MGoPoints: 13428

Movingfruit

May 8th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^

There is a place inbetween JOK and Baker Mayfield... No quarterback is perfect and makes every throw. Even when you look at the quarterbacks picked in the 1st round draft profiles you'll see them miss a lot of throws they should make. He'll make some bad throws/mistakes but that doesn't mean he'll be bad.

Joined: 01/25/2018

MGoPoints: 13

The Man Down T…

May 7th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^

"The other long TD was so open it wasn't worth clipping."

At least he finds and hits open receivers.  That talent alone wins at least a couple more games last season.  How many times over the last 3 seasons have we yelled "MAKE THE PASS!! HE'S WIDE OPEN!!" ?  If he can give the open receivers a shot at a catch, with the receivers Michigan has, it will be a good year in the passing game.

Joined: 12/04/2008

MGoPoints: 20133