Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama Comment Count

Brian May 10th, 2018 at 1:15 PM

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[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: This went a little less well than the Vandy game. It was a blowout from the drop and finished 66-3. FWIW, Bama was the #5 pass defense last year and was #29 in adjusted sack rate. Neither of those numbers do this outing justice.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: lol nope

Oh, there is one thing of note: Ole Miss ran a lot of max pro even on things like all slants, so if those were covered Patterson did not have checkdown options. Also some of their plays didn't look like passing concepts so much as presnap read sorts of plays where you've got a screen on one side but can decide to hand off or take a shot at a downfield fade. On these plays Patterson was locked into one guy in a route if he chose the fade, even if that fade got wrecked by a DB.

As a result of these two tendencies, Patterson ended up throwing into tight coverage a ton. Only rarely was this a bad decision; most of the time he either literally had no choice or the guy he was throwing at was the least bad option.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass TE flare screen Knox 5
I have nothing QB related to say about this. (CA, 3, screen)
M18 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Everyone jammed into the boundary again as Miss wants that space for their solo WR. Fake flare screen, fake handoff, none of this impacts the decision here to go solo backside. Presnap read with the flare option? I don’t know. Post-snap result is that there's one guy in a route and Patterson has to throw it. Metcalf gets destroyed by the CB and Patterson’s accurate-seeming fade ends up yards too long because of the CB jam. (not charted, 0, protection 1/1)
M15 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
7 man slide protection as OM tries to go deep; slightly delayed blitz gets through clean and Patterson has to bug out before it seems like any of his routes develop. He tosses it away as he gets to the sideline. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M15 3 8 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 Dime split 5 Pass Comeback Metcalf Inc
Time for one quick read and then RT gets run over so another bug out. Patterson finds Metcalf for a first down but Metcalf leaps to catch a ball that hits him in the chest and doesn’t get a foot down on a sideline catch he should really make. (CA+, 2, protection ½)
M24 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Dime even 4 Run QB draw Patterson 6
Draw ends up wide open as the closest thing to a LB in the box here is a safety at ten yards. Patterson again slides down before contact when he could probably get the first down here if he’s more aggressive. RPS +1.
M30 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Lodge Inc
LB shows blitz and comes, getting through untouched up the gut. Patterson chucks up a fade in response. That fade is too far inside but the DB is focused on the WR and the ball hits the turf harmlessly. PR? IN? MA? I punt. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
M30 3 4 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Lodge INT
Multiple issues here as Patterson doesn’t see that his slot WR is much more open here than the outside guy, Lodge. Lodge then gets beat up on the route by the CB a bit and Patterson wings the pass a yard wide. CB deflects and then INTs; Lodge thinks it’s incomplete and stops, TD results. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ? 7 Pass Skinny post Metcalf 17
Miss part of this play, come back with PA fake and Patterson setting up. Metcalf breaks inside of the DB and runs a skinny post; Patterson throws a lovely soft toss directly to his hands that arcs over the DB for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O45 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Stop and go Lodge Inc
Delayed release from Lodge; he gets inside of the CB and jets past him. S to this side busts, probably because of the delayed release, and Patterson has a wide open guy for a 45 yard TD… who he misses. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 5 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A 0
Another untouched rusher up the gut. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Metcalf 25
Quick hitch turns into a big gain because of a missed tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
50 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Improv Lodge 35
Orbit motion for Brown from the slot discombobulates Bama D, with the FS running to cover Brown on a flare route. Nobody replaces him. Patterson has time to see that and hit the should-be-open post route but hesitates, and then an unblocked edge rusher has him in his sights. Patterson breaks the pocket and finds a receiver for a deep gain… the same guy he should have thrown it to in the first place. (CA+, 3, protection ½, RPS +2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 6
Another dink throw that the WR turns into something. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O9 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3 stack 7 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Similar to the INT except Brown is very not open and the throw is on target. CB wins route and gets a PBU. Nobody is open so this was the best option despite the low probability of success. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O14 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop and go RB -5
RB out of the backfield, flare screen pump fake and then Patterson wants to hit the one dude in a route over the top. He’s blanketed. Patterson throws the flare screen now, way too late for anything but doom. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -3)
O9 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Dig Jefferson 10
Solid protection for a while until a big guy gets through on a stunt; Patterson can still hang in the pocket and step into a dart across the middle for Jefferson, who is a few yards short. Down 21-0, OM kicks a field goal. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 6
Edge is open as the playside DE sucks inside too far. LB does a good job to beat a block and scrape out to help cut it down. Patterson’s part in this is to run reasonably fast and get cut down by the LB from behind. RPS +1.
M32 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Slant Lodge Inc (Pen)
Patterson again gets an unblocked edge rusher; he stands in and fires an accurate ball to Lodge, who has the CB draped all over him. Dude gets a fairly iffy PI, but the throw was the only place it could be and was made with a dude bearing down on Patterson. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Seven man protection against a four man rush; one very covered short route and two deep guys who looks bracketed. Patterson should probably LIVE MAS at this point down 28-3 and take a shot but it’s more prudent to bail out when the pressure comes, which is way too early, and then throw it away. (TA, 0, protection ½
O39 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Another completely unblocked guy off the edge as nobody bothers to block the backside DE on a PA. Ole Miss is again using this fake screen action that Bama isn’t falling for and they absolutely do not have the blocking for so there’s again one guy in a realistic route, the backside fade dude. CB is over the top of this and the ball is way long and OOB. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
O39 3 6 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
This time two guys come scot free as OM tries to set up a screen and Bama engulfs the back in the backfield. Nowhere to go but down. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, RPS -2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 1 20 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -2
Not as bad as some other pressure events as pocket mostly holds, but Patterson has happy feet by now. He tries to run up in the pocket and gets tripped up by his own man, who got driven back in the pocket. (TA, 0, protection ½)
M11 2 22 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Sack N/A -1
PA, trying to go deep, DT gets around his man to flush Patterson. A second guy is coming from the outside so Patterson can’t step and fire; a third contains and #2 sacks. Patterson’s got the ball out like the proverbial loaf of bread(?) and fumbles(-3). (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M12 3 21 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Flare screen RB 3
Meh (CA, 3, screen)
M37 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB 4
More jogging off the line by the OM WRs; free rusher and Patterson just dumps it to the RB for a few. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
M41 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 5.5 Pass In Metcalf Inc
Metcalf gets zero separation and this is going to be a dink at best; Patterson throws it well behind his guy and it gets PBU’d. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M41 3 6 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A -11
Yet another unblocked guy right up the gut. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M16 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -6
PA, unblocked guy unthreatened by run, cover-2 corner on the quick out, Patterson hesitates and is sacked. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -2)
M10 3 16 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB Inc
DE instantly through the line, Patterson checks down and misses but really at this point it’s 38-3 and he’s about to get killed on every snap. (MA, 1, protection 0/2)
M28 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even 7 Pass PA TE wheel Knox 23
Virtually unblocked guy up the gut, VUGUG. Patterson drifts away from him to buy time and the TE actually gets open as he sells an out and then breaks upfield. Patterson puts it right on him. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O35 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Time! Patterson actually has a lot of it here. I can’t see if anyone’s open. One guy on a fade really isn’t. Patterson gets pressure eventually, rolls, keeps looking, and finally dumps it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O35 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass In Metcalf 4
Patterson checks down on third and long because a three man rush gets through clean and he can’t let it develop. Immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O31 3 5 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Jefferson Inc
Patterson probably bugs out too early here and just needs a little patience to let it develop, but how could you have patience at this point? He breaks forward, gets a spy in his face, and misses Jefferson at the sticks on a flick because he’s getting tackled as he throws it. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
O32 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass In Metcalf Inc
It’s 52-3 so grain of salt on decisions here as Patterson tries not to get killed. FWIW, this is another zero-good-options throw; he throws an in to a FR WR who’s lost the route and DB PBUs. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O32 3 12 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 DIme even 5 Pass Hitch Brown Inc
Reasonably good protection; Brown open a few yards short of the sticks as Bama is playing soft; good throw, dropped. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O32 4 12 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Improv N/A INT
VUGUG. This time RG ole blocks the NT. Patterson drifts back and just chucks it in the direction of a guy; S undercuts for the INT. This isn’t even a bad decision given the situation. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M23 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Fade Lodge 37
Three man rush by Bama’s second unit just gives Patterson enough time to chuck a fade down the sideline that is very well covered and dead on the money; Lodge goes up to make a tough catch. (DO, 2, protection ½)
O44 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over 7 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
VUGUG. Patterson does a good job to avoid the guy and finds his RB wide open on the sideline but wings it over his head. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
O44 3 14 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Out Jefferson 4
Decent protection; at this point whatevs. Ball is high and forces a good catch. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

Probably a lot of useful information from this game against one of the nation's top defenses, right?

nooooooooope

Why not?

Imagine last year's Michigan OL playing Bama.

No.

Fair enough. Since we're not imagining things, here's Patterson's night in a nutshell:

During one stretch Patterson was sacked on five of eight dropbacks. If you're not a chart-reader, about halfway through the game (but most of the way through the chart since the 4th was irrelevant) I got frustrated by typing the same thing about a Virtually Unblocked Guy Up the Gut and started typing VUGUG when that happened.

This was a debacle from the start, out of hand by the end of the first quarter, and very little of it had anything to do with Patterson. He did show some happy feet and miss some throws after moving around in the pocket, but the environment was such that it would have been a shock if he did not.

But enough about Michigan's pass protection.

Yes, the flashbacks to various Michigan QBs laying crumpled under a pile of bodies were persistent and severe here. For the record, I had Ole Miss's pass protection at 22/55, probably a UFR record low 40%, and on many Ole Miss dorfs I thought about a third protection negative because the pressure was coming directly up the middle of the field.

This wasn't a guy coming around the edge and sacking the QB after he maybe had time to get the ball out. This was someone running inside the tackle, usually untouched. Patterson frequently had to start moving before he'd even set up to throw.

Did this exercise produce anything at all?

One hell of a Poor Damn Shea Patterson passing chart, for one:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Alabama   2 15(3)+++     8   3   1 3 3 1   64% -
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

These pressure-heavy games become hard to chart as I try to suss out what is a reasonable grade for any particular throw when you have the dread certainty someone's about to take your head off. FWIW, one interception—a fourth and twelve heave after VUGUG—got marked a "marginal" throw because the right thing to do was fling the ball in the general direction of one of your guys. The other one could have been either an IN or a BR; I went with the more judgy BR. This is bad but it's not throwing it to a linebacker's chest:

Given the situation, Patterson's part in this debacle is at worst neutral for Michigan's prospects. And it might be positive? He was put in a number of no-win scenarios, like this incomplete slant on Ole Miss's best drive.

image

That's destined for a PBU, but all options are bad here. It's a seven man protection with only three guys in the route. The slot's covered, the solo WR to the bottom of the screen is getting jammed to oblivion, and the targeted Van Jefferson has lost his route badly. At least this time Patterson wasn't running for his life.

Patterson duly threw these passes even if it was clear the WR—frequently for some reason true freshman DK Metcalf—was getting his face pressed off.

He had no other choice unless being buried under 500 pounds of Bama lineman counts. Metcalf in particular had a rough game, unable to get off the line of scrimmage with any consistency and poor when given an opportunity to catch a ball.

For Patterson to (mostly) maintain his accuracy and not do anything truly egregious is impressive. Probably the worst thing he did was miss Lodge when he busted open for a 45-yard TD, and he did pepper in a couple pretty throws:

And while he had this without rolling out, this escapability and ability to put the ball on the money 30 yards downfield while on the move is impressive:

Lord knows Michigan's going to need that next year.

So… punt?

More or less. Patterson had very few opportunities to do anything and was being chased all night. I don't think any QB could have been effective given the chaos around him; this is no more meaningful than Patterson torching UT-Martin.

Comments

StephenRKass

May 10th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^

Again, as so many have observed, so much is on the offensive line and pass protection.

Looking at our opponents, I am particularly concerned about OSU. With their defensive line, and Bosa, and the performance of our offensive line over the last 10 years, plus the game being in Columbus, it is pretty hard to predict good thngs. If our OL could just be competent, just barely good, we could win a lot. But asking our OL to be good is asking an awful lot.

TrueBlue2003

May 10th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^

Adam Kraus and Mark Bihl, who were 1st and 2nd team All-conference selections, respectively.  The OL's of the mid-00s were generally very good.  Just because the playcalling was vanilla doesn't change that fact.

Reader71

May 11th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^

Moeller coached All Conference players
Tony Pape 2002-2003
Dave Baas 2002-2004, including All America season.
Dave Pearson 2003
Matt Lentz 2004-2005
Adam Stenavich 2004-2005
Jake Long 2004-2006, including All America season
Leo Henige 2005 (2nd team)
Mark Bihl 2006 (2nd team)
Adam Kraus 2006

All but Bihl and Henige were 1st team All-Conference by coaches or media. Moeller coached a minimum of two first team All-Conference players per season, had 4 seasons of 3 All-Conference players, had 2 All-Americas in his 5 seasons, sent a lot of guys into the league for at least a cup of coffee, won a ton of games, never fielded a line half as bad as every line we’ve seen since 2007 (excepting 2011).

Moeller is far and away the best line coach we’ve had in two decades.

MotownGoBlue

May 10th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^

I rewatched the 2017 OSU-UM game yesterday. JOK had plenty of time to hit wide open receivers for a number of 1st downs, but failed to do so (6-7, iirc). JOK also missed a wide open TD to McKeon or Gentry early on (we still punched it in for a TD). JOK scrambled and panicked far more than was necessary and once he did the play/series came to a screeching halt. He didn’t manage the game well (completely wasted the final drive of the 1st half) and seemed unaware of 1st down markers more often than not. Then there was the inexplicable INT in OSU territory, during the 4th quarter, in a 4 point game, that killed it all.

It wasn’t all on JOK. The puzzling Metellus dropped pick (resulting in an OSU TD on the very next play — should have been up 14-7, 17-7, or even 21-7, the break ) a couple of blown offensive assignments, along with a couple of misreads and bad angles regarding JTB, all aided in another let down, but with mere average QB play, we win that game.

Watching From Afar

May 10th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^

OSU had arguably the best pass rush in college football last year and they only got 5 sacks against a very bad OL. Of those 5 sacks, 3 of them were JOK's fault. 2 of them I remember specifically, he rolled out of the pocket after about 3 seconds and got about 3 yards from the sideline. Instead of throwing the ball away, 5 seconds after the snap, he held onto it and took the sack for no reason.

The weird thing is though, that the OL performed relatively well in that game, but have complete clunkers in other games. So youth and confusion could play a role, but saying because they did well against OSU shows they can do well this year is equally unclear as saying because they did poorly against Wisconsin means they'll do poorly this year.

ST3

May 10th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^

2 in 49 minutes with JBB at RT. 3 in 11 minutes with Runyan at RT. To be fair to Runyan, we were playing from behind with him in the game and us mostly in obvious passing situations.
JBB wasn't great against OSU ( Hubbard and Bosa) but he is not the reason we lost that game.

Watching From Afar

May 10th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^

Yeah, I don't think JBB was a dumpsterfire at RT like he was made out to be often. Was he good? No. Was he horrible and a turnstile like Ulizio? Also no. A lot of the recent comments about the confusing coaching and everything makes it seems even more apparent that on the biffs JBB had, it wasn't always him just missing. A lot of the time the calls and everything were messing things up.

And I'm pretty sure the 2 really bad JOK caused sacks I remember were late when Runyan was in. I'd have to look again (I don't want to) to confirm that, but I don't think he was a turnstile either. Again, not good, not an abomination.

jmblue

May 10th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^

I think the bigger issue is that OSU scored immediately after.  It was, above all, a missed opportunity at a defensive stop, which could have put some doubt in OSU's minds, down 14 on the road.

Nevertheless, despite it all we had multiple possessions in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead and did nothing.  

 

Watching From Afar

May 10th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^

I think it's the combination of things. That dropped INT, the missed tackles in the open field, including the really bad one on the long Weber(?) run made his entire game look really bad.

You're right, they could have gone 3 and out immediately following, but that would have been better than the JTB scramble that followed for the TD in which (IIRC) Metellus was on that side of the field and never turned arounf to see JTB ran from 20+ yards out. 3 and out + a punt and the unkown result is better than a known TD.

The optics just looked bad.

DoubleB

May 11th, 2018 at 4:36 AM ^

You are right about that. Don't blame him for the scramble TD though. His job is to cover his WR. It's the job of the DL to contain the QB. They didn't do that. As I recall, I think Hurst came on a stunt and let JTB outside.

Again, the price of man defense is the occasional big play on scrambles.

 

Watching From Afar

May 11th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^

I don't really blame him for that TD on that specific play. IIRC McCray was also running towards JTB as he scrambled and then turned and ran away from him/stopped running after him even though he wasn't covering anyone in particular.

What looked bad was 20+ yards after JTB passed the LOS, Metellus was still facing the wrong way, 5 yards in the endzone. Not that he should have stopped JTB all on his own, but it just looked like he was unaware of what was going on. Couple that will some of the poor effort he had in the Indiana game (3rd and 4, had the WR stopped on the sideline and didn't even try to tackle him) and I just get a less than great feeling about him. The JTB TD looked like once he noticed JTB was headed for the endzone he didn't even try to stop him.

Mongo

May 10th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^

we win that game by 2+ TDs.   O'Korn's QBR was an anemic 108 under decent pass pro and a strong game plan.  If Shea produced his average 152 QBR under the same circumstances for that game, UM would have scored in the range of something like 38-42 points. 

DoubleB

May 11th, 2018 at 4:33 AM ^

that game recently as well. O'Korn played poorly although I don't fully buy the "if he had played average" Michigan wins bit. The defense gave up chunk plays most of the game after the 1st quarter (the price of man defense). Other than the missed TD, a drive where Michigan scores, the offense is still going to have to continue to execute. And as you correctly stated, it wasn't all on O'Korn on offense.

Could they have won if O'Korn had played substantially better? Sure. But his poor play overshadowed other issues in the game.

LDNfan

May 10th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

With Shea UM will be returning the more accomplished QB of the two teams..now of course its a long season so by the time The Game rolls around Haskins MIGHT be the better of the two, but as of right now its Shea.

When was the last time UM started the season ahead at the QB position? And its not just Shea...UM's QB stable is stronger than OSU's. 

Bill22

May 10th, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^

Can we just have a year where Ohio State SUCKS? That would be amazing. It happened to MSU & ND in 2016. I don’t know if it’s happened to OSU in my lifetime (39 years)? Even when we beat them in the 90’s they had Orlando Pace and shit. “Ohio State goes 5-7” would be the greatest College Football season of all time. We can always hope.

Rasmus

May 11th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

I can't speak for WH, but to me "undeserved success" (other than a lack-of-institutional-control here and there) means that Ohio State hasn't faced Michigan teams capable of challenging them since 2006/2007. The reason you're here on this site at all is because The Game is a game, as it were -- in recent years it hasn't been, until Harbaugh.

If I were you, I'd be worried about Harbaugh having a competent QB again, and probably more than one of them. The gravy train is done for.

Raving Blue Lunatic

May 11th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

I just want UM to have a healthy, high-performing starter for the OSU game. I don't care who it is. 

Just be healthy, stay healthy throughout the game, avoid big mistakes, make big plays, and win the game for your team, for the program, and for all of us long-suffering fans, in that exact order.

WolverineHistorian

May 10th, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^

Not if it's the same officials as our last trip to Columbus. Or if OSU throws out a 3rd string QB and he throws for 400 yards. We've seen this stupid sh*t before and it always goes in their favor.

I'm sorry to be Debbie Downer. But outplaying them and returning a bunch of starters has had no change in the final outcome. I wish I could say it's easy to predict good things but I can't. And not when OSU can get the best players money can buy.

Rasmus

May 11th, 2018 at 8:50 AM ^

I wouldn't expect it to be much different from all the OSU games in the Harbaugh era -- it will be tight and Michigan will have a chance to win. I really like Harbaugh's response to the losing. He hasn't lost the team or the program -- if anything, he is stronger for it, a better coach. That's a rarity, and it seems real.

Last year was the floor. Once Speight went down, whatever chance for stable QB play and making in-game adjustments they had was shot to hell. Peters wasn't ready to handle that.

I don't know if he will ever be ready, but it doesn't matter now. The reality-based depth chart will be Patterson, McCaffrey, Peters. Peters might get a short-leash first chance if Patterson is out, but having McCaffrey ready to go is a luxury Harbaugh has not had at Michigan before now. Actual QB depth. Another rarity, and the offense will be stronger for it. More confident.

So there's a decent chance Michigan will play OSU in 2018 with a healthy and competent QB, probably two of them. Harbaugh hasn't had that, outside of his first year, with Rudock.

DelhiWolverine

May 10th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^

OL play is important, but I think the better measure of our offense’s growth will be determined by the combination of QB, OL, and WR play. Last year, we had significantly subpar play out of all 3 position groups. That’s a fact. And arguably the OL was not the worst of those 3 units.

This year, we will have significantly improved QB and WR positions. Even if OL shows no growth YOY (but I think they will), we will have a much better offense because our running game is good and opppsing Ds will have to respect our passing game.

SC Wolverine

May 10th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^

I find this quite encouraging.  If you imagine our QB's from last year in that situation, I wonder if we would get a passing first down all game.  Shea looked pretty good, considering.

BassDude138

May 10th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^

For some context, Connor Cook had almost an identical stat line vs Alabama in 2015. I know it is technically a different Bama team, but their defense is basically the same beast every year. This was Shea's 7th career game, on the road, in his true Sophomore year. Cook played Alabama in the 14th game of his redshirt Senior season on a neutral site.

The Man Down T…

May 10th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^

from Ole Miss last season.  It stands out that when he has just a bit of time to throw, he's deadly.  He rarely makes the "WTF WERE YOU THINKING???" plays and can extend a play nicely.  Here's the Cal game

JFW

May 10th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

the one caveat I always feel I have to throw in: 

Shea in a new system may be 70% of Shea in a system he is comfortable with, with a steady climb in Shea-ness. So if he doesn't look super polished at ND people shouldn't lose their shit*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* I know they will anyway. It's us. 

McDoomButt

May 10th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

I refuse to rewatch either game, but Devin Gardner had a 40.8 in that game and JOK had a 14.4 against OSU. Raw stats are about the same, if you add in Gardner's ground game.

Anyway Gardner didn't singlehandledly fuck us over in a game we should have won against our arch rival. IIRC he did just the opposite in a game where he broke his foot.

TdK71

May 10th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^

My thoughts on Gardner at the time were once he got hit his effectiveness tapered off. That and sadly for him it seemed that the only WR he trusted was Jeremy Gallon. 

He's make 5 or 6 great plays a game but he made a whole bunch of ?!?!?!WTF?!?!?!?! plays as well. 

That being said that 4th quarter in that OSU game was one for the ages except for the final outcome.