Timing Note: Sorry for the lateness. Blame the young voters, who wouldn't stop coming from the moment the polls opened until they closed (and one guy with the Michigan hat who came after and sadly had to be turned away). I know everybody was just dying to know how our team did against the [checks notes] Rutgers offense. The UFR Glossary lives here.

Substitution Notes: Too much to keep track of as starters were subbed routinely. Morris/Upshaw started but D.Moore was in on 3rd down, and McGregor got the next drive.

Formation Notes: Last year I started noting when positions are swapped with arrows. Here the TE is lined up as an RB and RB is in the slot. I called it "Gun 4w Y->R" and then you can infer from there being a TE (Y) in the name that it's still 11 personnel.

Also a reminder that "ARO" stands for America's Rollout Out. I've shorted "Racecar" to "RC" for Michigan's pass rush package with a DE (Morris or Upshaw) at DT.

[After THE JUMP: An even shorter show]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun 2RB Flex A-Flare		Nk Split	2 off	RPO		IZ/Fake Bubble	Morris	3	-0.30
Nk blitz vs RPO but Wimsatt reads Colson stepping out on the TE and gives into doom (RPS+2). Morris(+2) slants inside the RT and meets the RB 2 yards in the backfield to force a bounce into Sainristil(-1, tackling-2), who arriving from a blitz, gets a leg, and gets dragged 5 yards. Should be a TFL but the RB fights through them and a high shot form Barrett(-0.5) to eke out a short gain. Smith(-1) got assed down by a double that kept Barrett clean at least.
O28	2nd	7	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 press	Pass	4	Hitch	Johnson	Inc	-0.56
Morris to the flat brings Barrett(+1, PR+1) who blows up the RB set on him and forces a high throw. RU just wants to throw under Johnson(-1, cov-1) who got spun around but the throw is to Tacopants (Hat-1).
O28	3rd	7	Gun Str	4-2-5	RC Okie	2 off	Pass	5	TE Cross	Moten	Inc	-0.27
Amoeba blitz lines up 6 at LOS, drops Upshaw/Colson and brings Sainristil(-1, tackling-1, PR+1, RPS+2) who has a free shot but whiffs his sack attempt. It's now a rollout drill but everyone is covered (cov+2) with an extra LB. That is Colson(-1), who comes down on a WR well short of the sticks that Johnson(+0.5) has blanketed, giving Wimsatt a window to the TE with Moten(+1) on his back. Throw is inaccurate (Hat-1) which is why I'm mad because if Colson is paying attention to the down/distance he's probably got a pick.
Drive Notes: Insane Punt. 7-0. 8 min 1st Q. RU gets a punt block TD so it's 14-7 when they get the ball back.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	RPO		Counter Trey	Smith	2	-0.35
Adorable they want to try this. M slanting, which wastes a DE (Upshaw) but works as Jenkins(+2) crosses then tosses the RT blocking down into the backfield, getting the kickout puller. The TE arrives to find Smith(+2) who swam past a double that ends up on Colson and bounces off because he's really a Wildcat QB. Smith initiates the tackle, Barrett flows to finish.
O27	2nd	8	Gun 4w Y->R H-Jet	4-2-5	5-1 Split	1 fld	Pass	5	Reverse Flea Flicker	Sainristil	Inc	-0.58
Jet WR flips to the RB from the slot who flips back to the QB. Reverse woulda got us since Colson and McGregor both bit but not minusing for what might have been. They want to hit a fly on Sainristil(+2, cov+2) who never left the H and is in his pocket. Ball is overthrown by a mile (Hat-1) so the H just falls down trying to fake a PI. Schiano Sparts but this is 100% clean.
O27	3rd	8	Gun Ace	4-2-5	RC Even	2 press	Pass	4	Fade	Moten	37	4.00
Third and long so they just chuck it. M blitzed Colson and dropped Morris and Upshaw(+1, PR+1) is coming through if this isn't an MSU2020 chuck it. S and CB are in "Cone" (Man2) and you do want your CB in press to be more physical (Turner-0.5) to give the safety time to get over but Moten(-3, cov-3) has no excuse for not being on top of this. His backpedal is soft like he's preparing to drive on an underneath route while Turner is in trail. Moten comes off for Q-Jo and gets a talking to (this is a 4-point EPA swing).
M36	1st	10	Gun 4w	4-2-5	Nk Under	1 off	Play-Action	n/a	PA Slant	Colson	16	0.39
M is in a soft zone (RPS-1) that puts the MLB in a tough spot but Colson(-2, cov-2) still sucks way down on PA to give up a chunk. (Eo1Q)
M20	1st	10	Gun Twins H-Jet	4-2-5	Nk Under	2 bdy	Play-Action	5	PA H Flat	Barrett	1	-0.29
Fake the jet throw to the jet. Barrett(+1, cov+1) was playing off and shoots down quickly. Cruickshank nearly goes OOB behind the LOS and loses momentum in the tiptoeing (Hat-1).
M19	2nd	9	Wildcat Str H-Jet	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 press	RPO		Bash Keeper/Smoke	Colson	5	0.05
More stuff just for us: They bring in freshman slot bug Rashad Rochelle as wildcat. M is slanting but the bash read to the jet gets Colson(-1, RPS-1) understandably stepping to the wrong side of a releasing LG. Sainristil(+2, tackling+2) was blitzing outside the TE, absorbs a push upfield that should take him out of the play, but redirects and holds this to just a 5-yard gain.
M14	3rd	4	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 bdy	Pass	6	Corner Fade	Johnson	Inc	-0.45
Paper gets Candle as RU's call is an instant throw with max pro and M is in cover zero. That negates an all-out blitz (PR-2) but Johnson(+2, cov+2) was backing out before the snap to be perfectly on top of the choice in pass. He puts the WR in the sideline and it's DOA. Uh, RPS+1.
Drive Notes: FG(32). 14-10. 13 min 2nd Q. Shiano emptied the playbook but doesn't have simple sight reads built in yet.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O35	1st	10	Gun 2RB Flex A-Flare	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	RPO		Counter/Flare Screen	Graham	0	-1.01
Are we *sure* he's a freshman? Slant at this (RPS+2) with a CB blitz to the backside and D-Mo following the RB to the flat so give. Graham(+3) swims by the LT, who goes to the ground, the meets and chucks the puller and makes the tackle on his own. Benny(+1) also swam by the C, winding up with the LG in his knees while the C is on his back so LBs were clean to TFL if Graham didn't have it already, and Okie(+0.5) got penetration vs the RT with WJ coming off the edge so there was never a chance of a cutback. Refs-1 set this a half yard further than it got which robs MG of his TFL.
O35	2nd	10	Gun 2RB	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 bdy	Play-Action	4	ARO	Barrett	Inc	-0.60
Drop Okie blitz Colson which leaves Benny(+2, PR+1) on the edge. He shoves the RT back so much it interrupts the RB's route and gets in the QB's face. This is a throwaway at the guy Barrett(+2, cov+2) is cutting off to intercept if accurate.
O35	3rd	10	Gun Ace	4-2-5	RC Wide	2 press	Pass	5	Sack	Morris	-9	-0.50
Upshaw(+2, PR+3) at DT, speed rushes past the LG, RB was there to help but has to divert to Colson (RPS+1). Upshaw smartly goes for the QB's arm instead--young rushers want the sack and give up a throwaway. That means the sack goes to Morris(+2) who came inside a pathetic TE/LT double. Have to Hat-1 that TE for barely trying.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-10. 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O32	1st	10	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	PRO	n/a	Slant/Hinge Stretch	Turner	Inc	-0.93
RPO drags Barrett away so Turner(+2, cov+2) is all alone, PBUs like a boss.
O32	2nd	10	Gun Wk 4w	4-2-5	Nk Under	2 off	Pass	4	Tunnel Screen	Jenkins	2	-0.34
They've got Moten(-1) dropping way deep in cov2, Barrett(-1, tackling-1) gambles on coming through his block and gets shucked, so this looks dangerous for a second, but Jenkins(+2) reads the screen and gets back in time to tackle near the LOS.
O34	3rd	8	Gun Str RB	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 fld	Pass	6	Slant	Johnson	48	4.19
Here's where they pay off that endzone fade earlier. Slant vs 5-man plus dog blitz that gets picked up (PR-2, RPS-1). Johnson(-2, cov-2) is playing way off in Man-1 coverage. Moore(-1) is supposed to be playing robber, replacing the LBs in the hole, but doesn't look up the #1 receiver when he steps down. WJ has a shot to bring this down to set up a 4th and go-for-it still, but whiffs the tackle. Q-Jo(-3) is the last man and gets juked out of his strap at the RU 45. Moore wins back a point by running this down at the M18.
M18	1st	10	Gun 2TE (Y)	4-2-5	4-3 Over	2 fld	Run		Jet Sweep	Q.Johnson	0	-0.35
Alaimo covered. Maryland 2018 look where the line splits in two directions but not a read. Okie(+2) puts Alaimo in the backfield to bend this way back so we're expecting a TFL, but Sainristil(-2) got turned and moved out by Langan--if he puts up fight he might draw a holding call but he just gets blocked. Q-Jo(+1) gets down to clean this up at the LOS, had Colson(+1) chasing this down as well.
M18	2nd	10	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Pass	4	Corner Fade	Turner	Inc	-0.42
Press on the outside and size mismatch so they go at it. Turner(+3, cov+3) owns this route all the way. WR runs him over to prevent an interception (refs-2) then gets up sparting for a flag.
M18	3rd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 Fld	Pass	6	Hitch	Turner	7	0.24
Grates that the LT is this far off the LOS when they just wiped out M TD for illegal formation. It's relevant because Okie(+1, PR+1) was getting around him so it's a sack if this guy doesn't get an extra yard before the snap, and gets some run-of-the-mill holding in as well (refs-1). LBs now come on a delayed blitz that I hate vs RU because they're not leaving him in the pocket that long (RPS-1) and that buys enough time for Wimsatt to hit a big WR under Turner(-1, cov-1) for a 4th and go-for-it.
M11	4th	3	Gun Str RB	4-2-5	404 Tite	1 press	Pass	4	Pick	Sainristil	8	1.66
This is the pick play that IU and PSU got flagged for OPI because they didn't throw it behind the LOS. The outside WR does hit Sainristil and Cruickshank does catch it downfield so this is illegal too (refs-2) but I'm still mad because we don't have a switch for this and the legal version of this play is just as open.
M3	1st	Goal	Gun Heavy	5-2-4	Goal	n/a	Pass	n/a	Fade	Turner	3	1.41
Throw to the big guy, he pushes off, Turner(-2, cov-2) grabs a fist full of jersey to yank his way back, WR catches it anyways (Hat+1), TD.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 14-17. 1 min 2nd Q. All the sickos at halftime of LSU-Bama and bored of ND beating up Clemson suddenly tune in.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	Pass	4	H Flat	Sainristil	-1	-0.80
Normally I call this play Bubble Fake but they throw the bubble (RPS+1) against Cov 2 so Sainristil(+1) is right there. Ball is also near the turf, might have hit the ground, and would have been better if it had since now Morris and Barrett can converge unblocked as well. Hat-2.
O24	2nd	11	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 fld	Run		Shovel Pass	Jenkins	0	-0.29
LT is now a full 2 yards behind the LOS, IE the "Full Frost." Looks like a pitch version of QB Counter option then they pitch back to the TE. Jenkins(+2) fought through the LT and blows this up. Morris(+1) was also ready. RPS+1 because RU isn't even reading this and M was prepared.
O24	3rd	11	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Over Z-In	1 off	Pass	4	Drag	Colson	??(-10)	-0.20
Think ref says something to the LT about his illegal formation but he doesn't move up and they don't call it. Upshaw(+2) and Okie(+1, PR+3) are coming in to sack so the LT yanks Upshaw down so hard it actually draws a flag from a Big Ten official. Colson(-2, cov-2) has dropped back to grass with no eyes on the WR who crosses him. That guy gets the pass at 2 yards and edges him for the 1st. Want Johnson(-1) to be more aggressive too since he's outside. Doesn't matter anyways.
O14	3rd	21	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	Nk Even	2 off	Pass	4	Bubble	Sainristil	10	0.06
Give up and punt. Sainristil(+1) flew by Langan to keep it down.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-17. 13 min 3rd Q. Three more plays till garbage time.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 off	RPO		IV/Smoke	Colson	-4	-1.02
Colson(+3) is the guy being read here and angling inside a TE helplessly flailing at him (Hat-1) directly at the QB, then redirects and takes out the RB. Hot damn!
O21	2nd	14	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	RC Okie	2 bdy	Pass	4	Hitch	Barrett	INT	-4.39
M puts 7 on the LOS and Wimsatt can't keep track--kid saw zero coverage before and sees WJ set up soft on 2nd and 14 but not Barrett(+3, RPS+1, Hat-2) dropping back into the very spot. Had to go with his first look because Jenkins(+2, PR+2) went right through the LG and was about to sack.
Drive Notes: Interception. 21-17. 7 min 3rd Q. Now the stadium gets loud.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 press	Pass	4	Mesh	Barrett	INT	-7.87
Okie(+1, PR+2) comes around the RT and forces a step up into a held Morris(+1) who gets into the shoulder of Wimsatt as he throws a mesh they're running under cov2 as both LBs dropped to the curl up top. Throw goes high and Cruikshank bats it in the air for Barrett(+3, cov-push), who spins through a tackle and then has a convoy the endzone.
Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 35-17. 6 min 3rd Q. Just like that we're into garbage time. Bye sickos.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 bdy	Run		ZR Insert	D.Moore	3	-0.30
LT is even further back now lol. D-Mo(+1) sets up to make this hard and slams the lead blocker into the RB as Smith(+2) stands up then shucks a double.
O28	2nd	7	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	404 Tite	1 bdy	PRO	5	Slant/Hinge Stretch	Johnson	Inc	-0.56
Smith(+1, PR+1) swims through the C for an instant pressure and we almost get the same play again as it goes off the hands of a slant that Johnson(RPS-1, cov-1) was playing soft over because there's no help underneath. Upshaw(+0.5) got up to maybe help that. Nobody is behind this time though so it hits grass.
O28	3rd	7	Gun Str RB	4-2-5	Exotic	1 off	Pass	7	Slot Fade	Sainristil	28	3.52
Same design they hit big before, and again M has the SS (Q-Jo this time) coming down on a very late blitz which leaves the slant wide open again (RPS-2), but this time they're throwing the fade. Moten is coming to get over but it's a Mitch Leidner special well under. WR sees it and pulls up (Hat+3), Sainristil(+1, cov+1) has an arm in there and then he's actually got the ball and Cruikshank's one arm as the WR needs one to break his fall. That's still a catch but not a minus for the CB.
M44	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 bdy	Run		Counter B	Colson	8	0.71
Upshaw(+1) takes away the gap by getting a good shoulder into the kickout and Jenkins(+1) is two-gapping his blockdown so this should be stuffed. The TE sees this and hits the B gap, using himself up on Jenkins as Smith(+0.5) takes on a double. This is a chance for Colson(-2) to blast that gap for a stuff but he sits passively behind Smith and Barrett has to regap to tackle from behind.
M36	2nd	2	Gun 2RB 3w A-Flare	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	Play-Action	4	PA Durham	Jenkins	-5	-2.07
Durham is a play I used to run all the time in NCAA 2014 that's 3 vertical levels down the numbers and a crosser all to one side. Upshaw(+2, PR+2) gets through the RT and Wimsatt is spooked, rightly so because the only preventing a sack is the RT's grip on a shoulderpad (refs-2). The problem is he runs right and all his receivers are left. Jenkins(+2) pursues and Wimsatt runs OOB to sack himself (Hat-2) instead of throwing it away.
M41	3rd	7	Gun Str H-In	4-2-5	RC Tite	1 fld	Pass	4	Sack	Upshaw	-3	-1.56
Upshaw(+2, PR+3) arms this slow RT and it's a sack there if Okie(-1) isn't flushed by. Wimsatt steps up, takes contact from the RT, and pops out into Morris(+1) as he pops off a double.
Drive Notes: Punt. 35-17. 4 min 3rd Q. Backup DTs and Rolder next drive.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O45	1st	10	Gun Trips 4w R-Flare	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 off	Run		QB Draw	Goode	-1	-1.38
All Goode(+2) who swims through the RG and kills this with bit help from Okie(+0.5)
O44	2nd	11	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	Exotic	1 bdy	Pass	4	Fade	Johnson	INT	-5.47
Okie(+1, PR+1) has the RT falling backwards, Wimsatt probably didn't see Johnson(+3, cov+3) dropping late, comes to loft without looking, WJ outjumps the WR, also spins out of a tackle hops through another (Ruling: not a fool), and gets back to the 30.
Drive Notes: Interception. 35-17. 1 min 3rd Q. Good quarter.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 press	Run		Counter Trey	Barrett	4	-0.11
Upshaw(-0.5) gets kicked better this time. Benny gets clipped as the RG dives for an aggressively shooting Rolder and gets him while he's engaged with the RT and goes down. Barrett(+0.5) pounds the TE, gives up ground because he's small, but it's enough for Rolder(+1) get the RB's legs. Eo3Q.
O29	2nd	6	Gun 2RB Flex A-Flare	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Pass	4	PA Bubble	Sainristil	Inc	-0.65
Rolder blitzing so RU has numbers (RPS is off now) but WR drops it (Hat-2).
O29	3rd	6	Gun Wk 4w	4-2-5	RC Even	1 fld	Pass	4	Square In	Johnson	Inc	-0.31
Johnson(+2, cov+2) takes contact and is like "Yah well my arms are longer." WR can't get across him in time and it gets turfed (Hat-1).
Drive Notes: Punt. 42-17. 14 min 4th Q. Very audible Let's Go Blue cheer.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O23	1st	10	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 bdy	Run		ZR Stretch	Rooks	-6	-1.01
Rule of stretch is you can go in the backfield if you're pursuit and Rooks(+2) is back there and pursuing this all the way to the edge, where McGregor(+1) has a tackle attempt that misses but forces the RB even further into the backfield where Rooks and Rolder(+0.5) collect.
O17	2nd	16	Gun Trips 4w	4-2-5	RC Exotic	1 press	RPO		Hinge Stretch/Slant	Rolder	7	0.10
M is dropping into a pass set on 2nd and 15 and lets them have this. No notes.
O24	3rd	9	Gun 4w	4-2-5	Exotic	2 off	Pass	5	Square In	Turner	7	0.16
Turner(+1, cov+1) playing off, contests, and gets this down well short of the sticks, which was all they could ask.
Drive Notes: Punt. 45-17. 9 min 4th Q. Deep bench gets the last two drives so we're done but I clipped the 4th and 1 stop.

Why were we losing to Rutgers at the half?

A punt block.

Why did we give up lots of passing yards to Rutgers?

Because they couldn't run so they hit some fades and broke a tackle on a slant one time. They can make it almost look impressive if you push the sacks to the run game and then completely ignore how bad the run game was. This was what happened when Rutgers was on offense:

Type	Plays	Yards	YPP
Runs	18	31	1.7
Run	12	18	1.5
RPO: Run	6	13	2.2
Passes	31	139	4.5
RPO: Throw	2	0	0.0
Play-Action	4	12	3.0
Drop-back	25	127	5.1
Total	49	170	3.5

Also Michigan intercepted three passes and brought them back 48 yards, so it was more like 122 yards on 49 plays, or 2.5 yards per play. Rutgers is a baby seal. They were clubbed. The EPA chart tells a similar story of down-to-down dominance with a few bad moments more than made up for by the cascade in the 3rd quarter.

They hit a couple of shots but never threatened to add more than a touchdown's worth of points to this game. Having Korsak punt on every 1st down for the 2nd half would have been better than what they got.

How did they hit big plays I thought they suck and we're Michigan?

There were really three that might be relevant in the future. The first was a fade that Moten needs to get on top of. They just tried a trick play fade on Sainristil down this same sideline but Wimsatt overthrew it. So one play later—3rd and 8—Michigan is putting a safety over the top. The safety just didn't go.

#8 the safety who's on the 37 at the snap

Yes, you kinda want Turner to get his hands in there a bit earlier to delay the release, but he does get a chip and is playing the back shoulder all the way. There's nobody else for Moten to be dealing with. His backpedal is soft and he doesn't turn around until the WR is already by him. The coaches seemed to think so too because Quinten Johnson got more run after this.

Q-Jo then promptly blew an open field tackle on the big catch and run to set up Rutgers's only offensive touchdown.

That's a whiff, which isn't good but is also easy enough to diagnose. It's the rest of the defense that doesn't make much sense on 3rd & 8 here. Like, the original setup makes sense but how Michigan played it was bad to the point I wonder how it was taught. This was what I thought they were doing:

Okay that's a delayed LB blitz which might get a sack when the receivers are covered, and a safety coming down in a robber zone to replace the linebacker. That makes sense: the QB sees the LB coming late and knows he's got a slant under that, and then he finds out too late that the safety was coming down to take the slant away. But then that safety, Rod Moore, keeps coming (???) to open up the slant again.

If that's a 2nd delayed blitz it's silly—why are you adding a blitz after 3 seconds of reads to a quarterback who was in high school English a year ago? If Moore was late and he was supposed to blitz way earlier, why is Johnson playing super soft on a big pressure? It's possible he was supposed to be playing it tighter and he didn't trust the officials (who were generally good) to call a pick if contact was made. But I would default to blaming the safety for coming down to cover grass instead of looking up the slant but for the way Michigan ran the same coverage later.

This time the safety creeping down the bottom hash is Quinten Johnson and the ball goes to the fade. And from this it looks like Johnson is waiting to see who leaves the backfield—making his a dog green blitz where he's got the tight end in man.

Ignore where the ball goes however and check the slant again:

That's a tough play for Turner to make, with lots of green grass if he doesn't make it. And in return for giving them that look we got what…a safety blitz that doesn't have any chance of connecting? Please don't try this against Ohio State.

I'm not that mad at Sainristil for the result of this play. For one, he had an arm in there and was close to ripping it away for an interception when they came down. But also if you don't remember the 2015 Halloween game vs Minnesota when Mitch Leidner hit a similar shot, the safety isn't looking for the ball to go to the front shoulder, because that's where the coverage is coming from. This ball is thrown short to avoid the safety over the top, but if you do that you're gambling that your receiver will realize it before the DB, who's in the better position to catch it. I issued a minus to Sainristil because we chart the results, but it's not like Ryan Day is going to watch this and decide throwing where the CB has the greater leverage is a weakness he can attack.

The other issue I have with this coverage is Michigan is still leaving their guys in man coverage when the defense runs a pick play on them. They blew a coverage a few weeks back when Sainristil was supposed to switch over the deep man and didn't, but running man without an "Under" or "Banjo" call is asking to get rubbed, legally or otherwise.

We warned you about this after Indiana and PSU ran pick plays that got called back for offensive PI. It finally bit them on the 4th and 3:

The receiver at the bottom made contact with Sainristil and the slot receiver ran his route past the line of scrimmage so this should have been called back for offensive PI as well—no doubter. But a throw behind the line of scrimmage still would have been legal. As Brian said in the game column, the way defenses are supposed to deal with this is a pattern-match called "banjo"—the DB getting picked yells out and they swap guys. Perhaps Michigan's rules are they switch if the receiver doesn't cross the LOS but I doubt it. I think they just don't have a banjo practiced yet. The reason not to would be if you have substantially different players and don't want them getting switched into mismatches, but Michigan's CBs are all good athletes and relatively interchangeable. Please don't leave this up to Big Ten officiating—get a banjo.

Maybe Rutgers was just more prepared for this game?

Uh, I'll grant you that Rutgers did have a lot of STUFF prepared for this game, and not just on defense (those weird blitzes) and special teams (the surprise onsides). The Knights weren't able to cash in on much of it though. Here's that reverse flea flicker that Wimsatt overthrew.

The reverse *run* might have gotten them a chunk but Sainristil wasn't fooled into leaving his man in coverage after the guy got the original pitch. An accurate pass is probably broken up, or it's a really tough catch. Taking a dive and sparting around like wet Spartans for a flag is probably their best chance of success.

The same drive featured a Wildcat zone read with an RPO option that fooled the LB (Colson) but got chopped down by Sainristil flashing back to make a play.

Colson is #25, the top LB. Sainristil is #0 the slot DB just under the top hash

Rutgers also tried a tunnel screen with a fake slip screen that Jenkins was all over, and a shovel pass early in the 2nd half that Jenkins also ate up.

They also brought back a 2018 Maryland (yeah, good luck remembering that one) RPO where the offensive line blocks in two different directions to create space to run in the middle. I labeled this "Stretch Hinge" in case we ever see it again. This one saw the LBs go with the stretch action so Wimsatt pulled for a slant that Turner broke up but you can notice the blocking.

Michigan was happy to have that matchup. The next time Johnson was playing soft and behind but the ball went off the WR's hands and into the air (and for a moment we thought Michigan would have a 3rd interception in four plays). The only time the LB backed into the slant it 2nd and 14 and Michigan was happy to give 6 rushing yards to kill a down.

The problem with a lot of these is Michigan never had to get discomfited because they have the talent to allow one guy to attack whatever something *looks like* and another guy will make a play on what it is. Even when Schiano got an advantage in the playcall, they didn't have the post-snap options to take advantage. This doomed fade is a good example.

In a normal college-level offense that should be an RPS win for the offense. Michigan's got an all-out blitz and RU has enough protection to pick it all up with three receivers running routes in pure man. If they have so much as a simple sight read planned into the offense it's an easy conversion or a touchdown.

But Wimsatt is so far back in his development right now that they can't do that kind of stuff yet. His throw has to be predetermined, and can't adapt to something as simple as a cornerback dropping out after showing press pre-snap. Johnson does well to run this receiver's route for him and put him into the sideline, but he also got free leverage to do that. A grown-up offense should be able to take advantage of that leverage, not get trapped throwing into it. Try this with Stroud and the WR curls in, or if he spots the safety coming down, runs the post for a TD.

This is the thing about charting the defense Rutgers; Michigan can just do unsound things and get away with it because they're playing against (in some cases literal) children. Lawd help them, because they were willing to sell Kevin Smith's comic book collection and fence every bottle of hairspray in the garden to get their fans something to cheer for besides the ballboy trying to field kickoffs that go out of the endzone. But all that's doing is perpetuating the Rutgers cycle. Next year they'll have another suite of gimmicks and bad football players.

You're an Apologist! Michigan gave up drives to Rutgers. This is Inexcusable!

My how quickly we are back to expecting perfection. I will note that the fades on 3rd and long are starting to get really annoying, which probably means they're a good idea. When you're facing a good defense with a bad offense, the chances of converting 3rd and long are already low. Well, when that's your reality against a team that's content to man up against you, you can always throw a jump-ball fade. Your chances of success aren't great—maybe 30%—but the reward is excellent (big chunk instead of a punt), the risk of an interception is low since the DB just wants to knock it down, and you're not involving your pass protection because the throw gets out before the rush can possibly arrive.

Sometimes you just have better players and the defense can just count on winning the route; you've probably forgotten about the three times Rutgers ran this and got nothing out of it because the others stick in your memory. Here's DJ Turner owning the route from press and almost getting an interception in the endzone despite some light shoving by the WR at the end:

#5 the CB on the top

However the ones you remember are the TD they scored (and Turner had to interfere on) and the long conversions on 3rd and long. These were huge plays from a performance-vs-score perspective because they turned situations when the offense was likely to get booted off the field into 1st downs well downfield. I imagine Michigan will continue to get fades in those situations because the book is out on Minter and his amoeba stuff now, and everyone's got a big guy they would rather chuck it to over a small corner than try to scheme open. This is more relevant for Nebraska or Illinois though—Ohio State, like Michigan, has access to more efficient strategies.

It's also something you can take away with a simple trick. Michigan's response later was to show man coverage pre-snap and then back that guy off as soon as Wimsatt's back was turned.

That's really all you have to do, though it opens up stuff underneath if that becomes the thing you do. Rutgers didn't try it again.

Okay I'm back onboard if you can show me how Minter schemed up two Barrett interceptions.

Uh….those were also luck, or rather events associated with something Michigan was doing which still have a low likelihood. The thing Michigan was doing was the same as on Johnson's INT and really for most of the 2nd half: show blitz and back off.

This looks like another blitz and then they drop all but four.

The interception is a rare maximization event—a QB with more experience than Wimsatt usually won't fall for something like that. But it's also something that you're supposed to get from time to time when you're a zone blitz team.

The Amoeba (zone blitz) ideal is less about pressure from weird angles than coverage from weird angles. It's about making QB reads hard because you don't know where each zone defender's coming from. You're not expecting the QB to throw into those coverages—you're lucky if he does. Typically you're hoping to have him think he's got something like this pre-snap and spend precious time in the pocket discovering he doesn't. Then he goes to his next progression, which he's learned to order on an if-not-X-then-it's-probably-Y principle, and that's not there because Michigan is running "Z" (FS hammering down) or "$" (weakside LB in strongside flat) or "Þ" (11th century housecarl attached to a parachute).

The blitzing I complained about in the first half (that cost them the slant and run) paid off in getting Wimsatt sped up early in the 2nd half. He's seeing pressure and thinking the ball has to get out, and his presnap read told him he's got a CB playing off over there. If Barrett's part of the blitz he's right—it's unlikely Upshaw would be able to drop into that. The mistake was not looking at Barrett.

Barrett's second INT was a tipped ball but note the pre-snap look and coverage again:

Both CBs are rolled up like it's going to be man, and bail at the snap, with Johnson on the bottom backing into a trap zone. Everybody then backs out to the 1st down marker. You're not expecting the WR to tip the ball in the air for a Pick Six, but he's still getting the pass just a yard downfield with that LB and two more defenders looking at him. The first down was unlikely; the pick was a nice bonus.

You're not giving Barrett credit for these? Does your hate for our LBs go so far that you'll give him a +1 on the day or something?

You know how to find out.

A chart?

I thought you'd never ask.

 

 

Defensive Line
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
Mazi Smith	31	5.5	1	+4.5	Short day, usual dominance.
Kris Jenkins	22	11	0	+11	Casually f'd up everything RU prepared for us.
Mason Graham	10	3	0	+3	Got in late and let 'er rip.
Rayshaun Benny	8	3	0	+3	Also ripping into backfield late.
Kenneth Grant	9	0	0	-	Did not chart his part, seemed fine.
Cam Goode	3	2	0	+2	One big rip through the line I could have +3'd.
George Rooks	8	3	0	+3	Flashed late, going to factor in the future.
Michael Morris	25	7	0	+7	Short day, usual dominance.
Jaylen Harrell	0	0	0	-	DNP
Eyabi Okie	28	7	1	+6	RU was avoiding him more than we realized.
Derrick Moore	11	1	0	+1	Mostly pass rushing on quick fades.
Taylor Upshaw	26	10.5	0.5	+10	New Upshaw Line just dropped.
Braiden McGregor	9	1	0	+1	Similar day to Moore.
TOTAL	200	54	2.5	+51.5	Obliteration. RU wanted no part of them.
Linebacker
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
Junior Colson	36	4	8	-4	Wrong gap but maybe letting him roam was the plan.
Nikhai Hill-Green	0	0	0	-	DNP
Michael Barrett	40	10.5	1.5	+9	Excellent day, and most of that wasn't the INTs.
Kalel Mullings	0	0	0	-	DNP
Jimmy Rolder	14	3.5	0	+3.5	Showed late, maybe see what they've got this week?
TOTAL	98	18	9.5	+8.5	Blitzes and coverage, DL took care of the run.
Secondary
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
DJ Turner	42	6	3	+3	Beat on the TD, shoulda had an INT in the same spot.
Mike Sainristil	40	7	4	+3	Overall good play, one or two bad ones.
Gemon Green	0	0	0	-	DNP
Will Johnson	42	7.5	4	+3.5	Led team in snaps, didn't miss Gemon.
Rod Moore	35	0	1	-1	Was he blitzing? Otherwise not used.
Makari Paige	0	0	0	-	DNP
RJ Moten	33	1	4	-3	The one bad fade was bad.
Quinten Johnson	25	1	3	-2	The one missed tackle was bad.
TOTAL	241	22.5	19	+3.5	Two starters out, too many contested balls caught.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Pressure	22	4	61%	RU got lit up whenever they actually tried to pass pro.
Coverage	21	14	+7	Gotta clean up mistakes, get a banjo.
Tackling	2	4	-2	Like on the one play a RU player was standing w a ball?
RPS	11	7	+4	M was vanilla so this is M vs stuff RU prepped for us.
Hat Tip	4	15	-11	Figuring out how to play football since 1869.

Helllloooo there Michael Barrett, linebacking extraordinaire.

You know what, it wasn't just the interceptions either. As you know, I am quite keen on Michael Barrett as a blitzer.

#23 LB on the bottom

What's been coming along, and really starting to show as a positive after all of these snaps, is his coverage. Barrett got a head start because he was a Viper in the old defense, but he's gotten very comfortable at three-man zones that OLBs often struggle with. Watch as he stays over and outside the TE's release here, in contact in case they try to hit a quick seam, but eyes already on the slot receiver in the flat. That guy steps out of bounds but Barrett was going to have this soon if he didn't.

#23 LB on the bottom.

I usually don't remark much at these plays but it shows how the experience at this position that Barrett's piling up has put him over the mark for what we'd consider an acceptable starter on an excellent defense. Is he Jordan Glasgow? No. Will he ever thunk a guy like Jarrett Irons? Doubtful. But Barrett's an asset at the normal linebacker things now, which makes him an overall good player when you add in the benefits of a former safety/former QB we thought Michigan originally recruited at RB.

But you are still a Colson Hater

No, argh, stop with this please. I had a conversation with Matt D yesterday because he was trying to explain how he feels about Jett Howard, where the praise for the obvious moments of great offense is getting out of hand because he's a total mess on defense right now. And I was like "No, that's Junior Colson LAST YEAR." Colson this game however got back to playing with some of last year's reckless abandon.

That had its moments, like this RIDICULOUS stop on an Inverted Veer.

#25 the blitzing LB in the middle

I just…that is…Wow. He's getting read, he's blitzing, he's got a blocker outside of him ready to pin him if he gets too far inside, and he's going for the quarterback. This should be dead linebacker city, a –2 issued to somebody, and recriminations about entitled youth these days. Then Colson just casually shows up on the RB like a Gen Z voter. Yep, registered at the clerk's office on my birthday. Figured out housing for next year ahead of time so the address would match my license. Both sides of the ballot? Of course. Want me to recite the ballot proposals? Did my research on the school board candidates too. Where's my sticker?

He also appeared to be in line to stop this jet sweep if the safety didn't arrive on time. On the other hand: three –2 events again. This time it was the trifecta: one for being too passive when Smith set him up for a killshot, one for sucking down on play-action, one for covering grass.

#25 the MLB

I still have faith that the youth will save us, but getting them off their phones is a struggle. Speaking of the linebacker youth, Jimmy Rolder is now 9 games into his Michigan career and starting to ease towards sophomorehood. I only got clips of him from garbage time but he picked through an East Lansing's worth of trash to help Rooks stuff the final 4th & 1 attempt.

..and showed off his range in getting to this stretch play (we'll get to Rooks). Anyway, please stop calling me linebackers hater in chief.

That's right you are already Upshaw Hater in Chief. What do you have to say now?

Arrrrggghhhh. My case was Upshaw is really good at all the things other than pass-rushing, and that it was right for Michigan to accept the trade-off against PSU and MSU because blazing around a tackle is just an invitation for some of the better dual-threat QBs to scramble for chunks. I thought the math for this changes when you're facing CJ Stroud who needs to be pressured and isn't going to use his legs that much. Is that hating?

Yes. Now take your crow.

I so very much want to, but I have to caveat some of this. Caveat 1 was the Rutgers right tackle, whom Alex cyaned. The two sacks that removed Rutgers's last real shot at points were created by Upshaw beating that guy at 8 yards.

Those were a +1 and a +2 (because the RT himself impeded the QB) in grading, but you've seen tackles pass protect before and have some idea of how quickly their feet should be moving to compare to that RT, right?

This pass rush is as a defensive tackle (something Brian hates but I am for because that's been more Upshaw's level). It's also somewhat on the playcall because the guard is expecting help from his RB that he loses when that guy has to pick up a delayed LB blitz.

I gave Upshaw a +2 for this, +1 for a good speed rush that got around his man low enough to get to the QB, and +1 for not getting sack-happy and first making sure the QB had no way to get a throw off.

This next one was more impressive from a pure pass-rushing standpoint, and not just because it drew the first holding call on a team wearing red in conference history, or thereabouts.

That LT is setting up deep to stop this and still needs to yank to prevent a sack. Also Upshaw doesn't try to battle through it, since anything but going down violently is going to be let go in the conference. Man's been around the block, in a manner of speaking.

I got nothing on the other DEs except Morris is awesome, which is evident from all the Upshaw clips above. Okie mostly got to run past the QB after the ball was out to a covered fade a second after the snap. It was that kind of day.

Maybe we should talk about the DTs who obliterated the run game.

Caveat Rutgers sucks, but Domination. Smith murdered doubles as usual, Jenkins was unblockable, and then the kids got in on the action. I lost track of how many times both tackles won their blocks so thoroughly that either could have been credited for the +2.

The Knights quickly put their running game to bed or relegated it to sweeps, screens, and whatnot that avoid the trenches. Michigan owned the trenches. Jenkins tracked down the screen, nailed that shovel pass, ran down Wimsatt for a self-sack, and generated the pressure that led to Barrett's first interception.

#94 the DT on the top

That all got done in 22 snaps, and few of them passing downs. Graham and Benny got some run and pulled another Smith/Jenkins double-blowup.

And then the backups to the backups came in and looked so good I wonder how much of this performance needs to be chalked up to Rutgers having a bad line. I mean, we've had Cam Goode all year and this is the first we've seen him do the kind of stuff he was doing once per game against AAC competition.

#99 the bottom DT

And then came George Rooks. Geoorrrrge Rooks. What am I gonna do with George Rooks. You know George, when we run stretch everybody is supposed to stay on the line of scrimmage in case lanes open up. But then if you're going to give the back no escape, I guess this is cool.

That low center of gravity of his was on display on the final 4th & 1 stuff. All that steadiness allows him to bend low and the blocker just sloughs off. We also got to see the hands that were mentioned repeatedly in his recruiting profile a year ago.

#54 the DT at the top.

By "we play you near your hometown" rules you knew Rooks was going to play. I didn't expect him to play this well. He's going to be a big part of our future plans.

Heroes?

Taylor Upshaw, Michael Barrett, the DL trio.

Maybe not so heroic?

The safety from New Jersey, RJ Moten. The football team from New Jersey.

What does it mean for Nebraska and beyond?

Let's have the blitzes make sense please? Zero blitzes are well and cool but let's have the blitzers in range to, you know, get there.

Taylor Upshaw can play. I don't think his pass rush against this OL moves the needle, but the fact that they were comfortable using him as their every-down DE with Harrell out tells you how much the coaches trust him.

The linebackers are getting experience. Barrett looks more comfortable in his role now, Colson is still doing young stuff 3 times a game but it doesn't matter so long as the DL are murderating.

Jenkins+Older Smith+Graham >>>> Younger Smith+Hinton. This was a major upgrade on last year's Rutgers game, when the DTs were taking on single-blocks and asking the LBs to make plays. Jenkins was taking Hinton's job if he stuck around. Also we have depth. Turnaround compli.

Some of the kids can play now? Rolder looked comfortable in a few snaps. Rooks flashed. Will Johnson is a bit behind where we wanted him but he's still going to be amazing.

Get healthy again please kthx. I suspect Michigan had a virus come through and that some of these guys were playing through it. Paige was definitely the most missed on this side of the ball. I'm really disheartened by Moten, who was supposed to take a step forward this year but didn't even take the necessary steps backward on a play that changed the early narrative.