Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs Purdue Comment Count

Brian November 18th, 2010 at 3:09 PM

Formation notes: We've already given a lot of time to Purdue's banzai cover zero that they spent most of the game in. It started like this…


…and usually went to this…


…and Michigan was all like "I'm feeling like a light brigade, yo." Michigan didn't do anything special other than bring out the double TE set we saw briefly earlier in the year on their final drive.

Substitution notes: Huyge played almost the entire game but Dorrestein came in late for a series. He got blown up twice and Huyge returned. Shaw went out early with a concussion-type thing, leaving almost all of the snaps for Smith. Hopkins got a few and Fitzgerald Toussaint made an appearance on one fourth quarter drive. WR rotation was the usual, though Stokes returned. You are aware of the QB flipping.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M35 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA out Roundtree 18
Purdue comes out in a two-deep with a slot LB, then moves that LB down to blitz. Michigan immediately exploits this by going at the slot receiver. Outside receiver runs off the corner, Roundtree runs a three yard out and has acres of space to pick up YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Roundtree gets some extra by making the safety whiff. RPS +1.
O47 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA hitch Roundtree Inc
Exploiting the same hole in Purdue's alignment, though the safety is in a better position to hold this under first down yardage in the event of a catch. Roundtree drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O47 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 11
Purdue shifts the linebackers over the slot to cover the play, bringing a safety down from the other side of the field. Michigan fakes the same play and runs a draw off of it, catching Purdue out of position again. That safety drops back on the pump fake expecting pass, so when Omameh(+1) and Schilling(+1) get Robinson a lane he's got a ton of space and can just run away from the MLB. He heads outside for the first down, whereupon the corner strips the ball. Boo. RPS+1.
RUN+: Schilling, Omameh RUN-:
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q. Magee had Purdue straight trippin' here. Unfortunate fumble.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O38 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 9
Corner blitz to the playside so the linemen are slanting away from the stretch. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) immediately release downfield and get thumping blocks on the two MLBs. Huyge(-1) gets slanted under but Koger(+1) reads the blitz and kicks out the corner; Smith(+1) has a big lane he hits, managing to stay on his feet by falling on some detritus and grabbing a few extra yards.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Smith RUN-: Huyge
O29 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 2 + 12 sax
Safety rolls up and the other safety is only about eight yards off the LOS. Playside DE slants under Lewan(-2) and gets right in the running lane. This is really unusual because if the DE doesn't do this successfully he's just given up the edge and a big play. This guy--not even Kerrigan--is ballin', though. (The difference between this and the picture-paged play that's similar is that Lewan's guy shoots into the backfield; in the PP play he's pushed past the action.) An excellent driving block from Molk(+1) gives Smith room to cut upfield or the first down but only just; Smith cuts and fumbles. Lewan scoops it up and picks up another chunk of yards. Just that kind of year for Purdue.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Lewan(2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA TE flat Koger 4
Playside DE is unblocked and screams at Robinson. Robinson WOOPs him. This opens up the TE flat, which Robinson throws. Throw is high and wobbly and seems to delay Koger that half step that's the difference between seven yards and four. Still, with the dodge this is a good play. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS -1)
O11 2 6 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Late move after a check sends a safety and a nickel guy into the box for eight; obvious man zero. Nickel guy picks off Shaw and leaves a linebacker unblocked in the hole; Kerrigan stood up Lewan and comes off to tackle when Robinson is forced to cut back upfield due to the LB. Not really anyone's fault; Michigan got caught by the late Purdue check. RPS-1.
O9 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass PA rollout cross Roundtree 9
Another late shift; Roundtree sees a safety shift as he's running his crossing route and as both those guys suck up to the threat of Denard on the edge he appears to take his route vertical as an adjustment, sticking his hand in the air as he does. Robinson sees it and flicks it to the now vastly open 'Tree for six. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1). Good by Shaw to get a block on a ravenous Kerrigan.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 4 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M30 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Shaw 1
Another late move to an eight man front. This doesn't have to matter because the interior line appears to get decent blocks save Lewan, who allows his DE to set up in a place where he might be able to come off and tackle. We never find out because Kerrigan has destroyed Huyge(-2) and flows down the line to tackle as the cutback is forced by a charging nickelback blitz. ZR+1 as the safety came up to contain, RPS -1 for getting suckered by the late shift again.
M31 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Hemingway has a step or two on the DB; ball is thrown on a line and ten yards inaccurate. Turrible throw, this. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M31 3 9 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Pass Hitch Stonum Inc
Robinson finds Stonum for first down yardage and zings it in there; Purdue has excellent coverage and hits Stonum as the ball arrives. Catchable and frustrating this was brought in but not a pure drop. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-3, 14 min 2nd Q. Purdue three and out followed by Gallon being insane, not fielding a bouncing ball at the 20, and giving up 25 yards of field position.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M6 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 1
Guh. This opens up nicely as Molk(+1) gets a good seal on the playside DT as Michigan runs away from the line shift. Lewan again does not get a kick on the DE and gets driven back so that Robinson has to cut inside, but since this is a backup he can't peel to tackle like the previous guy did. So Robinson can hit it up, except for Schilling(-2) completely whiffing on the playside LB. Free release, running right at him, and took a bad angle so that he can just shoot inside. Smith tries to change direction and pick him off but can't.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Schilling(2), Lewan
M7 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA Out Roundtree 16
Safety rolls up. Purdue does not have a guy over Roundtree and has a single high safety 11 yards off, so Michigan goes back to the stuff from the first drive and hits a wide open Roundtree for 3 yards plus epic YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M23 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 6
Good handoff with a contain guy coming upfield(ZR +1). Playside DE slants under Huyge(-1), forcing a cutback. There is one this time because Lewan(+1) blew Kerrigan off the LOS and the contain guy was way up on Robinson. Smith zips back behind all the blocking and is running to get outside the WLB for Purdue. He can't quite make it, a step slow. Omameh and Molk had killed the playside DT but the slant-under made it irrelevant.
RUN+: Lewan, Smith, Omameh(0.5), Molk(0.5) RUN-: Huyge
M29 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson 4
Safety rolled up and the SLB basically in the box. Michigan runs right at this and away from the strength of the formation. Right side of the line does a great job of scooping the Purdue line, getting playside DE and DT sealed and popping a lineman off onto a linebacker but math means there's an extra linebacker, who tackles easily. Reminds me of Debord, this play, and pretty much only this play.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Huyge RUN-:
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 0
Schilling pulls around Lewan(-2), who had a downblock assignment on a DT lined up well inside of him and didn't even come close to sealing the guy away. He flows, Schilling has nowhere to go, there's no crease, and Robinson does well just to get back to the LOS.
RUN+: RUN-: Lewan(2)
M33 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ??? Pass Hitch Hemingway 10
Purdue very late getting lined up and they are not in position as the ball is snapped. M rolls out and Robinson hits Hemingway about four yards downfield; Hemingway is taken inside by the throw and then steps outside a charging Purdue DB, who slips. Free of that guy he can pick up the first. He's huge and not that fast but he's got a knack for making yards after the catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M43 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 3
Michigan does not have a response to this DE slanting inside as M runs against a lot of eight man fronts. If they're going cover zero M has to pass. Here Huyge gets slanted under, as does Schilling, but Schilling pushes the DT past and he trips to the ground. Webb is headed outside; Lewan is playside of the backside DE but just barely. With the contain guy one on one with Webb Robinson should pull (ZR -1), but doesn't. Hopkins has to dance around the Schilling mess and hits Lewan. He keeps his feet driving forward. Pile gets four. RPS -1.
RUN+: Hopkins RUN-: Robinson
M46 2 7 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 0
Purdue slants against the grain, which gets a linebacker in the hole unblocked. Hopkins sees this and cuts back, where Schilling(-1) and Lewan(-1) are ineffectively doubling a guy who slanted under Schilling. Hopkins does not have the quickness to get past the DT, who dives to tackle just as Hopkins looks like he's going to bust it into the secondary. RPS -1, ZR +1.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling, Lewan
M46 3 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass TE seam Webb 29
It's third and seven and Purdue has eight guys in the box. Odd. Michigan goes at the rolled up safety. Webb gets a step on him but not much more; he's well covered. Robinson drops in a gorgeous touch pass over the top of said coverage for a first down and a big gain. Ridiculously good pass. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O25 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Hopkins 1
Michigan tries to scoop the playside DT here but Molk(-1) does not get enough of a push on the guy and leaves Schilling a tough task. He can't manage it. This is at least somewhat his fault, too. His DE flows down the line. Hopkins tries to cut it upfield but by the time he can do so there is literally no gap. He hits Schilling, then the DT Huyge is blocking, and squeezes through for a few yards. Great downfield block by Omameh for naught.
RUN+: Omameh RUN-: Schilling, Molk
O24 2 9 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass Deep slant Roundtree 15
Purdue shifts its linebackers to the RB side, expecting a PA fake and half-roll. They get it, blitzing right into Michigan's protection, slating a guy past Omameh, and generally making this play look doomed. Robinson comes off a quick out, his first read, and shoots a ball to a well covered Roundtree as he gets hit. Tree reaches up to grab it and is immediately tackled. Bad ass. (DO, 3, protection 0/3, team, Omameh 1, RPS -2)
O9 1 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 1
Again with the slanting. This time Michigan is running the lead draw at the slant, which should be good. Playside DE runs inside Huyge and there are three linebackers on the two lead blockers and Molk. Molk is trying to double the Purdue DT and pop off; Purdue DT chucks him in the direction of his momentum and he flies by the LB. This will never be called but that seems like a penalty to me. -1, unfortunately. Two playside guys get kicked out by lead blockers and Robinson has to head inside; Huyge(-1) let the slanting DE spin off him and hammer Robinson after a minimal gain. Robinson gets 2-3 more without that even with the Molk issues.
RUN+: RUN-: Molk, Huyge
O8 2 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 3 (Pen -10)
Flag is iffy, as the playside DT shoots right upfield and falls with very little assistance from Molk; Molk lays on him. After that it's Schilling and Lewan doubling Kerrigan. They drive him downfield but the playside LB does a nice job to hit it up and get outside of Lewan; no hole. Robinson can't cut it back because no one tried to block the DE on the backside and he's flowing down the line in the right spot. He plows it up behind the Schilling/Lewan block for okay yardage.
O18 2 G Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Slant Roundtree Int
Michigan runs double slants (ie, the New Math play) and both linebackers suck in on the Roundtree one, giving Robinson what should be an easy read to take Hemingway deeper. He doesn't. He fires it at Roundtree, well behind him. If accurate a LB bats it or picks it off, as it is it looks like the guy tips it slightly. Ball is still headed directly at a safety, who picks it off and returns it for a TD. GUUUURUURUURGUURUGUG. (BRX--the X is for EXTREME, 0, protection 2/2) BWS picture-paged this. I agree that there was a small window for the Roundtree slant that he came to late but he should have thrown the deep slant to Hemingway, who is wide open and the first read. The linebacker who needs to undercut the Hemingway slant is on the LOS. BRXXXXX.
Drive Notes: Defensive TD, 14-10, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 17
Late move brings a safety into the box and M is again running against 8. This time Michigan blocks down and pulls Schilling. Kerrigan is the playside DE and responds to the down block like it's a stretch, running himself out of the play and opening up a big hole on the outside. Huyge(+1) escorted him out of the play. Hopkins kicks out the blitzing slot LB and Schilling(+1) gets a good open field block on the MLB, giving Smith a wide open lane to the outside. Roundtree(+1) doesn't actually have to block his safety but does get in the way and forces the guy to dance around, giving ground, so that Smith doesn't cut to one side of him and break into nothing but grass. No RPS plus because if the Purdue guy who's blocked by Schilling gets outside Smith has to cut up into unblocked guys. This could have been defended by Purdue but a linebacker made an error.
RUN+: Huyge, Schilling, Smith, Roundtree RUN-:
M37 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone stretch Hopkins -1
They try to hit Purdue with the exact play they anticipated on the last play, and Purdue crushes it. Omameh(-1) runs by the backside DT too fast to get a scoop and Molk(-1) is blown back as well, so Hopkins has to try to cut upfield into nothing. Even if he does get a good cut the backside DE is flowing hard down the line. Eight in the box allows a safety to contain Denard and thus lets Purdue slant hard to the playside without fear of a cutback. Meanwhile Purdue's spent most of the quarter in cover zero with DBs ten yards off the outside WRs and Michigan has not run the constraint plays to get them out of this formation. Frustrating. RPS -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh, Molk, Hopkins
M36 2 11 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 3
Same play as earlier and this time Purdue is much better prepared, with the guy getting blocked by Schilling getting outside and another player hitting the hole to the inside. Smith has to bounce and bounces into a linebacker for a minimal gain. RPS -1.
M36 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Tunnel screen Roundtree 7
Man on the WRs with one high safety. Michigan does catch Purdue in a blitz—they send five. Four of those guys are gone as Robinson flips a screen out to Roundtree (CA, 3, screen). Molk and Schilling release downfield, with Molk(+1) picking up a block on a guy who'd gotten inside the slot receiver and Schilling running upfield with no one in particular to hit. The fifth Purdue player peels back and gets a diving ankle tackle on Roundtree that slows him and allows Purdue to get him down just short of the sticks. Great play by that guy. Robinson's throw was a little high but I don't think it materially slowed Roundtree.
M43 4 1 I-form twins 2 1 2 Base 4-3? Run Iso Hopkins 0
Michigan gets to the line and snaps it before the nose tackle even gets in his stance; a sneak is guaranteed. Frustrating. Even so it looks like they should get the first down except for Hopkins fumbling, which makes him slow up and allows Kerrigan, unblocked on the backside, to plow him. Purdue recovers the fumble anyway and while it's not a big deal because Michigan didn't make the fourth down, the reason they didn't make the fourth down was the fumble, so this is a real turnover. Not charted due to 'sax.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 14-10, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass PA Sack ? -8
Michigan is rolling the pocket away from a weak zone fake and Lewan(-1) hands Kerrigan off to Schilling(-2), which turns out to be a very bad idea as Kerrigan rips through the line and eats Denard. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, Lewan -1, Schilling -2)
M12 2 18 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 17
Omameh(+1) shoves his DT inside and with the DEs tearing upfield that gets Denard through the line. Smith(+1)is out there as a lead blocker; he picks off one linebacker. Roundtree(+1) hits another inside, providing a cutback lane. Denard(+2) runs past a charging safety and turns it up, cutting it inside when a corner eludes Grady. Corner makes a desperate diving grab at Robinson's legs that is successful at hewing him down at the sticks.
RUN+: Omameh, Smith, Roundtree, Robinson(2) RUN-:
M29 3 1 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Smith 2
Nowhere to go as Omameh(-1) gets blasted back and the rest of the OL can only stalemate guys. Smith(+1) has an opportunity to cut back as Huyge(+1) managed to not get shoved back by Kerrigan and his aggressive crash opens up a small window. Smith is agile enough to dance through it for the yard.
M31 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Hitch Stonum 12
Straight dropback and Robinson has forever. Michigan has max pro against a four man rush. Robinson comes off two reads to find Stonum alone about ten yards downfield. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)
M43 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 6
I'm not sure if this is a concession to Kerrigan's awesome or the eighth guy in the box or a mistake, but here Huyge blocks the backside DE on a stretch, which rarely happens. Molk(+2) gets one of those killer reach blocks on the playside DT, Omameh(+1) gets his helmet across the backside guy and drives him downfield, and Schilling(+1) kicks out the playside LB. Smith has a spectacular hole it hit and does so, and if he was Mark Ingram or something maybe he runs through a tackle but he's not so the totally unblocked MLB makes a diving ankle tackle and holds this down. RPS -1? Yeah. Picture paged.
RUN+: Molk(2), Omameh, Schilling RUN-:
M49 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 4 (Pen -10)
Molk gets called for a hold or quickly popping out on the DT and grabbing him around the shoulder. A legit call, and really frustrating since Michigan was running a power off tackle and it doesn't really matter how Molk blocks this guy because he's going to have to have a hovercar to make a play here. Stupid. Robinson decides to cut it upfield because Omameh(+1) destroyed the other DT and Huyge got a block on a linebacker; Koger(-1) couldn't do much with Kerrigan and he comes off to tackle from behind, robbing M of a couple extra yards.
RUN+: Omameh, Lewan RUN-: Molk(2), Koger
M39 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway 23
Still eight guys in the box for Purdue on second and long, and they pay for it. Michigan rolls the pocket and throws a quick hitch to Hemingway that pulls him inside and past a diving corner who is on an island. That guy on the ground, Hemingway can pick up the first down easily. Pass was very low and a tough grab. (MA, 2, protection N/A, RPS +1 I guess)
O38 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone read keeper Robinson -6
Very bad decision to keep with the slot LB lined up well inside and another LB heading backside. Robinson has nowhere to go and gets tackled for a major loss. By doing this Purdue is opening the bubble up extensively, but Michigan hasn't thrown it once. RPS -1, ZR -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Robinson(2)
O44 2 16 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power veer Shaw 2
Odd play. Line blocks down and Omameh pulls. Playside DE is left unblocked as Lewan and Molk release downfield. Molk blocks no one. Lewan erases the MLB. Smith draws the slot guy outside, leaving Omameh one on one with the last LB with the playside DE and DT, who beat Schilling(-1) really fast, in pursuit. LB does a good job to get into Omameh at the LOS and get outside and because of the pursuit Shaw doesn't really have a cut behind him; he runs at the LB and gets tackled.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling
O42 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Lewan(-2) beaten by the non-Kerrigan DE on a three man rush and that guy hits Robinson as he throws a deep ball to Hemingway. Resulting pass is overthrown but not really Robinson's fault; Hemingway had a step on the DB but just a step. In this situation might as well throw it up. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Lewan -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-13, 40 second 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M17 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA rollout cross Roundtree Inc
Weird split in the Purdue LBs implies a slant with LBs filling behind but Michigan goes PA so we don't get to find out. Robinson rolls out, decides against a well-covered Grady circle, and tries to come back underneath to Roundtree. Pass is batted. Roundtree was covered and this could have been a good idea or a bad one. Hard to tell. (BA, 0, protection 1/1)
M17 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run Hitch Roundtree 4
Playside Purdue LB is the contain guy and maintains depth on a PA fake. Roundtree's quick hitch is open but that LB is in position to tackle immediately as Purdue adjusts to a play that had flummoxed Illinois. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA rollout hitch Hemingway 6
Robinson rolls out as M goes max protect, comes off a deep route, and zings one to Hemingway about a yard short of the first. Hemingway catches it and turns it upfield for about seven yards but gets a terrible spot one inch short of the first down. He's well past the 32 when he goes out, but no review. Michigan could have/should have challenged, I guess, but spots never get overturned. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-13, 14 min 3rd Q. Hagerup MIND LASERS get Michigan the ball right back.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O32 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Reverse Grady 13
A lovely playcall that features Lewan and Webb doing jab steps and then peeling off to get blocks on backside defenders. Webb has no one to block as the backside DE screws up and doesn't read the play but Lewan(+1) takes out the WLB. Purdue's MLB reads the play and displays impressive speed to make it a question on the corner but is a step slow; Grady(+1) gets by him and heads up the sideline. Excellent block from Stonum increases the damage. (RPS +1)
RUN+: Lewan, Grady, Stonum RUN-:
O19 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Power off tackle Smith 19
Purdue blitzes both MLBs and moves the safety up as a cleanup guy but this is seven in the box, not eight. Purdue shifts its line one way and leaves a gaping hole between the NT and Kerrigan. Lewan(+1) and Omameh(+1) double the playside DT and destroy him. The two blitzers come free up the middle but hesitate on the mesh point in case Denard keeps; he hands it off (ZR+1). Smith gets past them and runs just past a diving Kerrigan; now he's in space with Schilling leading him. Schilling(+1) picks off the designated cleanup safety and Smith(+1) subtly cuts past the charging FS, walking into the endzone.
RUN+: Robinson, Schilling, Huyge, Omameh, Smith RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown(missed XP), 20-13, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone stretch Smith 0
Purdue slants its line against the stretch, which means Molk has an easy time sealing the playside DT but the playside DE slants under Lewan. Lewan does okay with this, shoving him past the play, but the POA has changed and this robs Schilling of any chance to block the playside LB, who's flying into the hole. Again, I believe this is a front possible because Purdue is running eight men at six blockers. A safety in the box is outside and absorbs Hopkins, leaving no one to get the linebacker who eventually tackles. Smith almost cut past him as Lewan had done his best to make a hole outside of him; if he does that Huyge is shoving the other LB past the play and Smith could have a big gainer. RPS -1. Picture paged.
M22 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 ? Pass Yakety Sax ? -11
Fumbled snap. We come to it late. Looked like the slot out was wide open, too.
M11 3 19 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Yakety Sax ? Int
Three man rush; Kerrigan comes upfield of Huyge and forces Robinson to step up in the pocket. He does. He has to dodge the NT. He does. He finds Stonum open for the first down and throws it so high that Tacopants is like "wow, that's high." A safety picks it off. (INX--the X is for XTREME, 0, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 20-13, 10 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M18 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 0
Forcier in. Omameh(-0.5) and Molk(-0.5) try to double the playside DT and don't get any push or create any creases; Huyge(-0.5) gets shoved inside by the playside DE. Kerrigan beats Lewan(-1) to the inside and when Smith tries to cut back he's swallowed.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh, Molk, Huyge (halves), Lewan
M18 2 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass Scramble Forcier 7
First hitch is covered, Forcier comes off on a Smith slant that is also jumped, and now he's in scramble mode. He comes through the line and decides to pull it down quickly, running OOB after a decent gain. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M25 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Flare Smith Inc
Michigan runs a snag concept and gets the flare route wide open for a massive gainer -- there is no one that can stop Smith before he runs 20 yards up the sideline… but Forcier throws it way long. Sigh. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 8 min 3rd Q. Michigan put back on the five after the penalty on Gallon for not making a fair catch signal.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M5 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 8
Robinson back. Michigan pulls Schilling around and attacks right upfield. Omameh(+1) crushes the playside DT off the ball. Huyge(+1) releases downfield immediately to get a linebacker and Schilling comes around to pop another linebacker and though Koger(-1) couldn't do anything with Kerrigan the good blocks from everyone else give Robinson a crease for decent yardage. Hard-filling safety takes Robinson down short of the sticks.
RUN+: Omameh, Schilling, Huyge, Robinson RUN-: Koger
M13 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 6
Looks sort of like a stretch but this is an inside zone with both DTs getting doubled. Lewan(+1) kicks out the other DE like whoah and Schilling and Molk(+0.5 each) kill the playside DT so Smith has a huge gap to hit outside. He does, and is then taken down by the filling safety. Just seven in the box this time, which gave M the window to double the DTs without getting someone killed.
RUN+: Lewan, Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-:
M19 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 8
Two deep and the slot blitz is threatened but not brought, so just six in the box. This time the playside DE slants outside; Huyge(+1) does a good job adjusting and Schilling(+0.5) takes his pull inside that block to blow the LB in the hole. Omameh(+1) also adjusted on the fly to wall off the DT threatening to slant under Molk. Robinson has a crease since there's no unblocked guy for the LB to funnel him to. Schilling's guy comes under him to make a diving tackle, so no full plus.
RUN+: Omameh, Huyge, Schilling(0.5) RUN-:
M27 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson 9
Back to the eight man front. Backside DT gets upfield too fast and Schilling(+1) slices him to the ground with a cut block. Playside DE drives upfield of Huyge and Molk's in a stalemate with the playside DT so the cutback lane is where it's at; Robinson(+1) hits it. Lewan(+1) gets a downfield block on an MLB caught out by the move and Robinson is one block from Koger(-1) from being set free; Koger's lame cut attempt is stepped over and his safety prevents a one-on-two matchup between the FS, Robinson, and Roundtree.
RUN+: Robinson, Lewan, Schilling RUN-: Koger
M36 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Midline stretch Smith 19

DT does a good job to form up and force a handoff but he's not out of the play so he can flow down the line and cut off the inside. Robinson maybe should have kept but Lewan(-1) just ran by his LB and he's sitting in the hole unblocked, too. Smith has to go outside, where a filling safety should chop him down for no gain. Smith(+3) makes a little juke, though, and runs through the tackle attempt to the outside. No one's left and he's headed for a big gain. Um, ZR+1, RPS-1.

RUN+: Smith(3) RUN-: Lewan
O45 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 9
Playside DT gets upfield fast and is walled off by a down-blocking Lewan(+1). Webb(-1) cannot handle Kerrigan and his downblock gets powered through, but because of the DT ownage there's a big cutback lane. Molk gets out on a linebacker and gets a shove on him, allowing Robinson to hit it upfield quickly and past that guy. Aggressive safety fill holds it down. RPS +1; this was easy pickings for Lewan.
RUN+: Lewan, Robinson, Molk RUN-: Webb
O36 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 0
Michigan successfully scoops Kerrigan, getting him sealed by Schilling. Lewan moves to the second level but can't get a block on a fast-reacting Holland, who is just screaming down the line at the snap. Not really Lewan's fault, as there was no way he could help scoop Kerrigan and get out on a linebacker moving this fast. He gets a push but the guy is right in the hole and Denard can't make a move on him, going down for nothing. Kerrigan also shoved Schilling back so far that there was no cutback lane. Good play from Purdue here. RPS -1.
O36 3 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 4
Omameh(+1) crushes the playside DT and one of the PU linebackers heads outside the hole despite having help; Huyge(+1) blows up the last remaining LB and Denard has an easy four yards before the safety shows up.
RUN+: Omameh, Huyge RUN-:
O32 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Midline stretch Smith 2
Smith(-2) misses a cut here. Lewan's guy has set up outside two yards deep and the angle he has to take outside assures that he'll get run down. Inside he's got a shot if he cuts back hard because Molk's guy flowed down the line and the linebackers have gone to the frontside; the DT probably can't run him down. Koger lost Kerrigan again and he might tackle, but that would be from the side two yards downfield. ZR+1.
RUN+: RUN-: Smith(2)
O30 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson -2 (Pen -15)
Kerrigan does not get scooped here; Huyge(-1) and Omameh(-1) can't handle him. He fights playside and as he does so falls, taking out Huyge accidentally from behind. Slot LB hits Smith in the backfield and stands him up; nowhere to go as Michigan gets swarmed. (RPS -1) Lewan get a meaningless clip on the backside for cutting a guy, but I don't really blame him. The guy falls awkwardly but what's he supposed to do when his job is to cut the backside DT two seconds after the snap?
RUN+: RUN-: Huyge, Omameh
O45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Fly Stonum Inc
Fly route is covered well but he's got room long and outside; ball is short and inside. Stonum gets a super bonus facemask call, too. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ?  
Come on, it's third and twenty three and you've got max pro against three rushers and you somehow let Kerrigan go single blocked? Fail. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, team -1, Huyge -2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 20-16, 2 min 3rd Q. Sigh.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O41 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone read stretch Hopkins 2
Forcier back. Molk(+1) gets an easy seal as the Purdue DT is headed upfield. This should be good but frickin' Kerrigan is occupying both Omameh(-1) and Huyge(-1), driving them back, cutting off the outside, and preventing either from getting a second level block. Huyge eventually releases but he's to the outside and two Purdue linebackers are inside; no chance. Hopkins makes the right cut. Schilling couldn't get much more than a delay on one LB and the other guy is totally free so Michigan picks up little.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Omameh, Huyge
O39 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass Fade Hemingway 18
Gah, this is finally M looking to take advantage of the overly aggressive Purdue D by throwing curl/flat at the two guys to the twins side. Flat is wide open for an easy first but Forcier's like eff it and throws a fade route to Hemingway. He's got like five yards to the outside so Forcier hangs it up a little short and out there and Hemingway adjusts to grab the ball at the sidelines. Intentional given the weather? Maybe! Results based charting. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O21 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone read keeper Forcier -4
This ends up looking like midline but I don't think it is. Purdue puts six in the box with one guy a standup DE. They slant hard away from the playside, and Forcier(ZR -1) sees a big gap between Lewan(+1), who adjusted to kick out a slanting DE, and Schilling. He keeps. It doesn't matter because Huyge(-1) and Omameh(-1) got split by Kerrigan, who eats souls as per usual. Baited into the keeper, as the handoff was right. RPS -1.
O25 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Excellent coverage on a quick fly route; Forcier puts it away from the DB but this is also away from the WR. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O25 3 14 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Improv Hemingway Inc
Forcier's first read is covered and then Kerrigan comes through Huyge(-2) despite this being another three man rush. Forcier scrambles out, pumps, has no one, and tries a desperate heave to Hemingway that's almost intercepted. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, Huyge -2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42), 20-16, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 0
Kerrigan crushes Huyge(-2) back, which cuts Schilling off on his pull. Extra guy in the box means there are now two Purdue player unblocked; tackle is inevitable. (RPS -1)
M24 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Purdue all over this, getting a linebacker past Smith(-1) to make a tackle at the LOS; Robinson falls forward. RPS -1.
M26 3 8 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ? -1
I'm seriously like not so much: third and eight and they're running the PA fake that pulls Schilling around and leaves Kerrigan unblocked until he gets out there. That's a lot of ground to give against a beast. Robinson steps up but heads outside, failing to read the stunt of the DT that means he should shoot upfield and scramble. He rolls himself into trouble since no one is open and when he does try to scramble he slips; Kerrigan eats him. (TA, N/A, protection 1/2, Schilling -1, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O36 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass Scramble Forcier 4
Forcier in. Michigan goes max protect and gets Forcier a ton of time. He can't find anyone and decides to scramble out of the pocket. Still no one so he runs for a decent gain. Borderline TA/ SCR. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
O32 2 6 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Hopkins -2
Purdue slants under again, this time using a corner blitz as the contain guy to create another eight man front despite showing two deep. Dorrestein(-2) has checked in and completely loses Kerrigan to the inside; Molk(-1) and Schilling combine to not block the playside DT, and Omameh(-1) whiffs on a linebacker so Hopkins just gets swarmed. RPS –1.
RUN+: RUN-: Dorrestein(2), Molk, Omameh, Schilling
O34 3 8 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ? -4
Again a three man rush and Kerrigan obliterates Dorrestein(-2), coming around from the edge to get a very BG sack on Forcier. Forcier fumbles, two Purdue guys fail to dive on it, and Hopkins eventually gets it back.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 8 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O49 1 10 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Smith 1
With bonus overhang safety for essentially a nine man front(!). Michigan doubles the playside DT and drives him back (0.5 Schilling, Molk); Omameh(-1) loses the backside guy to the inside. Smith(-1) should probably cut back and hug the backs of his OL for a decent gain but misses it and heads to the frontside, where Lewan(-0.5) did not get a good kick and there is a constricted hole. Purdue LB screwup allows Koger to hit Omameh's guy but the outside contain guy was able to hop inside Webb because of Lewan's iffy block, where he tackles with help from the DE spinning inside.
RUN+: Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-: Omameh, Smith, Lewan(0.5)
O48 2 9 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-5 Run Zone counter Smith 3
Designed cutback sees Omameh(+1) engage and blow up the backside DT, shoving him way out of the hole. Webb(+1) comes across to kick out Kerrigan effectively and there's a big hole. Huyge blocks a linebacker that Schilling couldn't get to because the Omameh block actually got in his way, leaving two guys to tackle Smith after a modest gain.
RUN+: Omameh, Webb RUN-:
O45 3 6 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Pass PA rollout TE seam Koger 24
Hey, finally. Michigan pairs the usual PA rollout TE-flat thing with Koger going vertical against a nine-man box and four Boiler linebacker type objects run at Denard on the edge with zero trying to cover Koger. Robinson tosses an ugly underthrown duck that still sees Koger make the catch five yards clear of any Purdue player; he turns it up for a first down and more. CA because in the situation you really really just want the completion and erring on the safe side is correct. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +2)
O21 1 10 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Smith heads out of the backfield before the snap, pulling the overhang safety. Robinson looks over there but that's a decoy as he runs upfield. This is well blocked and should get a chunk of yards but for Schilling(-2) letting the DT lined up outside of him inside; this is not a tough block and it wasn't made. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) doubled the playside guy, got him way off the LOS, and then Omameh peeled to pick off a linebacker; Webb(+1) bashed another one, and this is good for a bunch but for the DT flowing down the line and forcing Robinson into Kerrigan.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk, Webb RUN-: Schilling(2)
O19 2 8 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 0
Purdue backs out a tiny bit with both safeties about eight yards off the LOS, so technically a seven man box but those safeties are in run mode still. Purdue shoots a DT directly upfield past Schilling(-1) and Lewan(-1) right into the path of the play and kills Smith at the LOS. RPS -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Lewan, Schilling
O19 3 8 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 10
Same deal with the safeties. Molk(+1) gets across the playside DT but eventually releases him because he's expecting that Michigan will scoop him; Schilling is well behind the guy and so this just releases him. Kerrigan's shot upfield quickly, which takes out two blockers but also opens up room outside. Robinson cuts out there, getting a bump from Webb(+1) on the two DTs coming from the inside. Molk(+1 again) has gotten a great open field block on a linebacker as Omameh(+1) crushes another one to the sideline. Smith(+1) hits the safety and Robinson weaves through everything to pick up a huge first down.
RUN+: Molk(2), Robinson, Smith, Omameh, Webb RUN-:
O9 1 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 3
Molk and Schilling double one DT, getting decent but not great movement(+0.5 each). Schilling pops off to cut off a guy blitzing through the B gap. The other DT steps outside so Omameh releases and Huyge(-1) can't get across him as he's passed off. Omameh gets downfield to block a guy and does okay; DT slides under to tackle after a decent gain.
RUN+: Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-: Huyge
O6 2 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 4
Kerrigan slides inside presnap and in doing so likely tips Omameh(+1) as to his intent; he slides inside on the snap and Omameh seals him. Schilling's trying to block the other guy and actually hits Kerrigan in such a way that he can use the momentum to spin past Omameh's block. Playside LB shoots outside, taking out both Huyge and Koger; Robinson hits the gap but maybe a little too fast because Webb is next to him. This allows a linebacker to attack unblocked; he tackles but a slight shimmy from Robinson(+1) gets him 2-3 extra yards.
RUN+: Omameh, Robinson RUN-:
O2 3 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Hopkins 3
Plowing forward here. Lewan kicks out Kerrigan as all four other linemen head straight upfield. Molk and Schilling(+1 each) batter a DT into the endzone. The other DT stunts outside. Omameh(+1) plugs the guy moving into the vacated space; a linebacker tries to shoot the gap between the DT block and Omameh and can't because there's not enough room; he trips to the ground, and Hopkins just has to run up the back of the crushed DT for an easy touchdown.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 27-16, 1 min 4th Q. Functional EOG.

This definitely didn't mean anything.

Why so?

Because it hurts my heart.

Ah so. It wasn't that bad considering, you know.

Considering what? 27 points against Purdue? I had to go to the doctor. I have an EKG. The doctor comes up to me and says I'm looking at your—


Damn you.



2009, All Of It 1 7 6(2) 3(1) 4 4 - - ? - 44%
UConn 2 15(6) - - 3 2 - - 2 - 68%
Notre Dame 3 25(8) 3(1) 4 1 - 4(1) 2 - - 71%
UMass 4 10(3) - 1 1 - 1 1 - - 73%
BGSU 1 4(1) - - - - - - - 1/1 N/A
Indiana 2 8(2) 1(1) 5(1) - - - - - 9/11 66%
Michigan State 4 14(3) 1 7(1) 1 - - 2 2 N/A 68%
Iowa 1 11(3) 2 3(1) 2 - 1 - - 3/4 64%
Penn State 3 12(3) 1 4 2 - 1 - - 6/10 63%
Illinois 4 9(1) 1 4 1 3 1(1) - - 3/4 60%
Purdue 2 12(1) 1 3 1 1 1 3 - 8/10 68%


Iowa 3 14 1 2 4 - - 1 1 N/A 74%
Illinois 2 11 - - 2 3 - - 1 3/4 72%
Purdue 1 - 1 1 1 - - - 2 N/A N/A

Robinson wasn't bad overall but when he was bad he was disastrously so. He's got one IN and one BR but those were full on Brawndo INX and BRX—THE X IS FOR XTREME—passes, the two brutal interceptions that led directly to 10 of Purdue's 16 points. Both came in long yardage situations where Purdue was actually playing pass defense and both had open receivers. On the pick six Robinson came off his first read, an open deep slant by Hemingway, in favor of Roundtree underneath and did that thing we talked about last week where he throws a ball to the right spot a second too late. This time it was a smaller window and a later throw so a linebacker got a finger on it and a safety looked like the intended recipient. On the other interception he had to scramble around because Kerrigan was set loose on a play where Michigan went max protect against a three man rush*, this time found Stonum for first down yardage, and zinged it five feet above his head. It was the most Tacopants throw of the year for him.

The frustrating thing about that first interception are the two passes that preceded it. One was the beautiful touch lob for Webb:

Two was a second-read zinger to Roundtree with three guys in his face:

Wow! Wow! Wow, but in the totally opposite sense!

*(This happened like three times and every time I got so mad but if you go back to last year, how many times did Brandon Graham do that exact same thing? A dozen, probably. So this is not a thing unique to M. You can threaten blitz and get your beastly DE singled up without rushing more than three.)

So you're saying…

Not much. I don't put a ton of stock into the second interception since that's not the kind of thing we've seen from him and it was likely a rain thing. The second one was a pattern last week and now it killed a scoring drive and is a level two pattern with extra hitpoints.

Other persons of interest?

The receivers came back to boring after a schizophrenic game against Illinois:

  This Game   Totals
Player 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Stonum - - 0/1 1/1 9 2/7 7/12 19/19
Odoms : ( - - - 1 1/1 3/4 11/11
Hemingway 3 0/1 1/1 3/3 7 3/4 4/6 22/26
Stokes - - - - - - 1/2 -
Roundtree 1 - - 5/6 11 2/3 5/8 31/34
Grady - - - - 4 1/1 3/3 8/9
T. Robinson - - - - - 0/1 - 2/3
Gallon - - - - 1 - - 4/4
Koger - - - 2/2 - - 2/3 9/9
Webb - - - 1/1 2 - - 4/5
Smith 1 - - - 3 - 0/2 12/12
Shaw - - - - 1 0/1 0/1 5/6
McColgan - - - - - - - 1/1
Hopkins - - - - - - - -
Toussaint - - - - - - - -

Just one drop, that on Michigan's first drive when it was dry, and few opportunities for anything magical. For the second week straight Hemingway displayed a crazy knack for breaking tackles and picking up YAC despite being built like a dump truck, and that was about the only interesting thing that happened to the receivers.

Okay, so the passing game sucked—weather, etc. But what about the runs?

Earlier in the week I said Michigan averaged 4.3 YPC once you take out sacks, but I forgot to take out Lewan's 11 yard fumble fun run and I think I divided by the wrong denominator, so your new baseline to ballpark the overall effectiveness of these metrics is 4.0 YPC. That's not good. The NCAA average is 4.3 before you take out sacks. When you do, the average jumps to 4.9. That's optimistic for any individual game since those numbers take cupcakes into account and… oh let's just save ourselves a bunch of time and point out that Michigan's run performance against Purdue was two points better than an average team. I'm still calibrating this metric but I'd like it to correspond to that number, so we should see Michigan come out only slightly above average on… er… average.

To the--



Offensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Huyge 7 10.5 -3.5 Major problems with Kerrigan, and some with the other DE.
Lewan 8 9.5 -1.5 Had serious issues with the slanting. Also Kerrigan.
Schilling 8 9 -1 Usually had the much tougher matchup against Short.
Molk 15 6.5 8.5 Another series of good reach blocks but some were easy because of the Purdue calls.
Omameh 16.5 7.5 9 Thought he did well as Purdue played into his strengths by giving him releases much of the day
Khoury - - - DNP
Dorrestein - 2 -2 Kerrigan.
Webb 3 1 2 The usual
Koger 1 3 -2 Also the usual.
TOTAL 58.5 49 9.5 Worst day o the year by a considerable—OH GOD NOT KERRIGA—
Player + - T Notes
Robinson 7 1 6 Limited opportunities to actually make yards, but made them..
Gardner - - - DNP
Forcier - - - Didn't score here.
Shaw - - - Left early.
Smith 9 4 5 Another good day but man I wish he broke more tackles.
Cox - - - DNP
Toussaint - - - Like three snaps.
Hopkins 1 1 0 Limited by footing.
McColgan - - - DNP.
Jones - - - DNP
TOTAL 17 6 11 Somewhat quiet day because opportunities were rarer due to blocking whatnot.
Player + - T Notes
Stonum 1 - 1 --
Odoms - - - --
TRobinson - - - --
Roundtree 1 - 1 Throw this man a screen?
Grady 1 - 1 --
Gallon - - - --
Hemingway - - - --
TOTAL 3 - 3 --

The other bit that needs to show up here to get the full picture is Rock Paper Scissors, which I had at 9 – 21 = –12. That's a really, really big, bad number. I said earlier in the week it's because Michigan kept hurling itself at cover zero overloaded boxes. I get why it happened,  but it happened.

So… that seems about right from a holistic standpoint. OL slightly positive but essentially a stalemate, positive but not outstanding day from the tailbacks, poor/restricted playcalling drives the YPC down.

Individually, I don't have to explain what happened to the tackles. His name is Ryan Kerrigan and he is 2010 Brandon Graham and he's a holy lock for this blog's completely symbolic and meaningless DPOY award. Jesus. Ryan Kerrigan. On the interior, I think that's because Purdue usually undershifted its line and left Omameh free to head downfield and pop guys, which he's good at; in other instances he got to double the freshman NT as Schilling tried to cope with a very good three-tech in Kawaan Short.

So are we getting back to preseason Vincent Smith excitement levels?

I'm always going to wish he was faster or bigger so he could break more tackles, and before the season I thought he was faster, so no. I am getting behind him as a consistent contributor as a third-down guy and change of pace back even after Dee Hart arrives to make the Michigan backfield a crowded place. He made about 30 yards on his own against Purdue, getting tough yards inside a couple times and delivering two subtle hesitation moves that slid him past defenders, turning zero yards into 20 and ten into a touchdown. If Michigan goes away from running back by committee in the next two years it won't be because he's locked down all the carries, but he's a reason that's not likely to happen.


Smith, for chugging along in terrible conditions. Molk for being Michigan's most consistent lineman.


Considerably mitigated by their opponent but both tackles got worked. Robinson had three crippling turnovers on a day when he didn't make up for it in other ways.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

If the Badgers go with eight in the box and it rains they're not going anywhere.

But seriously folks, JJ Watt is probably the other DE who ends up first team All Big Ten despite the existence of Adrian Clayborn and if he does what Kerrigan did, Michigan is in trouble. If he does half of what Kerrigan did Michigan is in trouble. Hopefully the field conditions had something to do with Michigan's struggles—we did see a Huyge/Lewan tag team mostly erase Clayborn—and they will bounce back Saturday. This is only a possibility.

Denard has to stop turning the ball over. This is analysis that could come from Chris Martin, but seriously at this point the main problem with the Michigan offense is Denard fumbling and throwing picks. At this point you have to expect at least one turnover from him a game. This isn't something that's likely to get fixed in the next two weeks. True sophomore and all that.

side note: 10k words again.



November 18th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^

This has probably been said before on this blog but I am encouraged greatly by Denard. He went from "oh dear god don't throw the ball" last year to this year's "oh dear god don't throw the ball against good defenses." The reps he is going to get in the bowl game practices, teh bowl game, spring then fall camp makes me think he's going to be light years ahead of where he is today next year, too. Which means even less of the slow reads leads to picks.


that being said, that sort of improvement makes this offense go from cold hearted to lethal.  


November 19th, 2010 at 5:09 PM ^

Yep, great things to look forward to next year offensively. I don't think most people would question that, but there's still the lingering matter of the next two weekends.  I seriously hope people look at the season as a whole and see improvement over last year + potential for the years to come, rather than short-sightedly seeing just the losses and shouting for RichRod to go.  (Seriously hoping we can pull off an upset in one of the last two and stop that kind of chatter altogether.)

But yeah, good things to look forward to long term (though I tend to be perpetually hopeful for the future), and brace for the worst in the short term (cause you know it's going to be ugly).


November 18th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^

Wow I knew watching the game and Kerrigan tearing up our OL that the UFR was going to be little rough.

On the other hand, I thought Smith ran pretty well but I will agree that he may be a better slot guy than RB (as discussed in the past). I can't wait for Dee to get here and make our backfield have two home run threats. 

I agree with you Brian, if Lewan / Huyge / Dorrestein have trouble against Watt and the Wiscy DL, it could be a long game. I see them stepping up a bit and allowing Denard (just hold on to the ball) to run a little more, hopefully.


November 18th, 2010 at 3:44 PM ^

Over the past few years, I've always figured that, due to the teams youth, there isn't as much time to focus on things like the weather. There are so many other areas the team needs to devote practice time to, most of which will be factors in more than just one or two rainy games per season, that the coaches allocate practice time differently than their generally more experienced opponents.

We'll have to wait til next year to see if it's a coaching issue, experience issue, or something else entirely.

Ellerbe is Yoda

November 18th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^

Is Hemingway really the first read here? Seems as if Roundtree is running the quick-developing route so Denard should look there and then go to the deep slant (slower-developing route) is Roundtree is not open. Anyone have thoughts on this?


November 18th, 2010 at 3:53 PM ^

Only a few weeks ago there was a lot of talk about rolling out new plays, or at least some new wrinkles of existing plays.  That talk is now dead.

I know the weather sucked last week and Michigan never had a sufficient lead in the game to start much experimenting, but whatever, here we are: Game 11 and 12 are dead ahead and Michigan's offense has not shown anything new.  We still haven't see any triple option plays AT ALL this year (not a one since one play last year-a fumble vs. Purdon't).  No speed option runs to the flat. Some reverses but no inside buck counter runs with teh slotbacks, not optioning the corner with trailing slot back. Very little in the form of new receiver routes, etc.  

The universe should be expanding, not contracting.

Rodriguez/Magee have a thick playbook.  We're not seeing a lot of the plays that were "bread and butter" stuff at WVU.  I'm a bit disappointed that we haven't seen more released over the last several weeks.  I'm not surprised though either, since UM only won the last two games by a butthair and couldn't afford to screw up and kill a possible scoring drive.

Maybe RR is trying to play it safe right now, beat Wiscy and OSU if he can, but if anything not lose to them so badly either if he can't beat them (e.g. keep it close). 

I think Wisconsin is a much better football team than Ohio State is on both sides of the ball, and Michigan right now has nothing to lose. 

Is there a reason why Michigan is not employing more triple option in it's offensive repetoire?  Is this on sophomore Denard Robinson? Is this on the backs? Is this on the OL?  What gives?


November 18th, 2010 at 3:57 PM ^

Sure the offense had a shitty day in bad weather against purdue, but last I checked we're still a damn good offense, breaking records, and all kinds of awesome stuff. 

Would it be awesome if we could do all kinds of plays? Sure. But aside from purdue, and TOs against MSU, this offense has been pretty dominant - if they're only running a fraction of the playbook

Captain Obvious

November 18th, 2010 at 4:15 PM ^

We roll out new plays pretty much every game.  Do you read the UFRs?  The running game especially has produced a number of different runs.  We ran a lot of inside zone and QB iso at the beginning of the year.  We've run a bunch of I-form and variations off of it.  Then we pulled out the midline.  Then the veer.  Then the inverted veer.  Then a bunch of stretch plays.  We threw in a reverse this game.   The passing game has also grown and evolved over the year too - read the picture pages and UFRs.  Just because the changes are subtle doesn't mean they aren't there.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:20 PM ^

It's pretty obviously unnecessary and it's the kind of play that requires lots and lots of reps.  The point of the spread and shred (any good offense, really) is to force the defense into losing the numbers game.  Right now teams are stacking the box.  Option doesn't take care of that.  Play action (and regular ol') passing does.  So that's where RR has turned his focus.  And the results have been great.


November 18th, 2010 at 3:53 PM ^

Watching the game, you just have to tip your hat to Kerrigan and chalk up at least some of the team's struggles to his dominance at times.  Also, the rain and the crappy field certainly didn't help, as Chris Martin accidentally pointed out while rambling about socks or something.

The positive to take away from this game is that the offense can grind out drives in bad weather, and can move the ball against a decent defense without the huge play.  Sure, there were some costly turnovers, but I also think UM left 10-14 points on the field because of turnovers or bad penalties.  Some of those are to be expected of any team, but this was just a confluence of bad circumstances.  I expect a bounce-back this weekend, especially on a better field.


November 18th, 2010 at 3:57 PM ^

I take solace in this actually.  Rodriguez was content to let his defense win the game for him.  Some coaches only want to win the game on their terms, and will lose the game trying to be a genius, or win the game in their style.  Think Brian Kelly vs Tulsa this year.  Steve Spurrier in his Florida days.

I liked how Rodriguez was willing to defer to get the win, rather than risk the win to make sure the offense put up huge numbers.  Rodriguez can play the field position game when he has to, and he will sometimes.  I don't think we've won a game this way since he's been here.

Silver Lining I know.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^

I hate him to but during the game when Hope called a timeout right before Michigan was CLEARLY going to punt his reaction to the call was hilarious. We replayed it like 5 times. Of course, I was drunk at the time so maybe I thought it was funnier than it really was.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^

Teams stack 8 in the box, that opens up the bubble screen to the slot. The safety is sitting 15 yards back and our end receiver just has to block his man. That should yield 5-7 yards which is as good as a run, and it forces the defense's hand. They either have to take a guy out of the box and cover our slot, or die a slow death. Given the weather, I assume that is why we didnt run it more?


November 18th, 2010 at 4:18 PM ^

Interestingly enough, the radio commentators noted, erroneously, that "Denard threw behind the receiver - that's a pretty unusual thing for him."

They're obviously not reading the right blogs, and don't have the memory or analytical skills to figure out patterns themselves.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:26 PM ^

I know it's going to be an entertaining post-drive UFR when I can't remember which Brian is the bold one and which Brian is the normal-font one.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:31 PM ^

Plowing forward here. Lewan kicks out Kerrigan as all four other linemen head straight upfield. Molk and Schilling(+1 each) batter a DT into the endzone. The other DT stunts outside. Omameh(+1) plugs the guy moving into the vacated space; a linebacker tries to shoot the gap between the DT block and Omameh and can't because there's not enough room; he trips to the ground, and Hopkins just has to run up the back of the crushed DT for an easy touchdown.

The 1985 team called; they wants their metaphors back.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:50 PM ^

ing forward here. Lewan s out Kerrigan as all four other linemen head straight upfield. Molk and Schilling(+1 each) a DT into the endzone. The other DT stunts outside. Omameh(+1) s the guy moving into the vacated space; a linebacker tries to the gap between the DT block and Omameh and can't because there's not enough room; he trips to the ground, and Hopkins just has to run up the back of the ed DT for an easy touchdown.


November 18th, 2010 at 4:37 PM ^

IMO, Kerrigan >>> Watt.  I think Clayborn is overrated, so maybe Watt is better than Clayborn, but i just don't see the same agility in Watt as in Kerrigan.

Blue in Seattle

November 18th, 2010 at 4:41 PM ^

The second one was a pattern last week and now it killed a scoring drive and is a level two pattern with extra hitpoints.

Excellent work.  And in response to everyone thinking the Coaches went conservative, go back and read the last drive and the TE pass.  The coaches knew they were going against 8 men in the box, and when they needed to exploit it, they did.  Kudos to the offensive line on all the other plays where numbers were stacked against them and yet they still moved the sticks all the way to the end zone.

Pick your poison Wisconsin, pick your poison.

Of course they'll stop the run and hope for interceptions!


November 18th, 2010 at 4:52 PM ^

Great work as always, Brian. A few things

1.) Vincent Smith, Keep giving him his 12-15 touches a game and good things will continue to happen. As I've said all year, while other folks kept calling for his benching and removal from the rotation. He doesnt lose yards, is always going forward and every week he's getting more confident on that knee. He also has about as high a TD per touch rate as any back in program history

2.) Didnt you think Roundtree looked like Braylon on that TD pass?


November 18th, 2010 at 4:55 PM ^

Just curious how much the RPS is affecting the other stats.  I'm a RR supporter so I don't want this to come off as bashing the coaches...but when our offense is the teams strength and the coaches get an RPS of -12 I have to think that has a negative effect on the individual grades.  For example, yes perhaps Huyge could have blocked better, but also perhaps the coaches testing the cover 0 with some pass plays would have resulted in better odds of him getting those blocks.

In other words, the playcalling wasn't keeping the defense on their heels, so they could tee off on our offense, which may have reduced their effectiveness.

This is the first time I really looked at the RPS much because we were SO stubborn about running at the cover 0 defense....

Captain Obvious

November 18th, 2010 at 5:22 PM ^

is about as arbitrary as it gets.  It's an opinion.  Brian's argument is that the playcalling was too conservative and he -1 RPS'd everything.  One could argue with equal force that the weather necessitated the playcalling and probably 18 of those -1 RPSs become RPS neutral.  People really need to stop giving this stat any sort of weight.

The grades against players (especially OL) are pretty opinion-free.  You can easily see how well a person executes his assignment, aside from some defensive breakdowns where we don't know who exactly screwed up.    On the OL you either get beat, cause a stalemate or blow the guy off the ball.  Pretty easy to grade and not going to vary much with good or bad playcalling.


November 18th, 2010 at 5:53 PM ^

While I agree the weather had a heavy impact on the playcalling, consistently running into eight man fronts also had an effect on the results. So I hand out RPS -1 when that happens and we don't get much to counteract it until the last drive. I have been saying all week it is not a criticism of the coaches, which I can say because it's not arbitrary.


November 18th, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^

Brian mentioned it several times in the UFR but I think it bears mentioning again - Hemingway's ability to break tackles is outstanding.  I'm not sure if its because defenders estimate his agility due to his size or what but he has several big jukes a game.  Its great to watch.


November 18th, 2010 at 6:01 PM ^

After watching many a replay it is apparent why Vincent is the starter and first option at RB.  He doesn't miss any block assignments, he's rarely out of postion, and he runs north/south.  Every other back has had issues with one or more of those areas.  Especially when they enter the game.

Vincent has crushed many foes with his blocking.  He is not afraid to lay it on you!


November 18th, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^

When I played a hundred years ago, pass protection was the hardest part of playing in the rain. Trying to stay in front of those fast mean bastards was a bitch when the field was slippery. I know, who gives a rat's ass about me, but I assume the point holds up when applied to people who actually have some talent, too.