Unverified Voracity Underestimated The Power Of The Mississippi State Legislature Comment Count

Brian January 19th, 2017 at 2:42 PM

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[Eric Upchurch]

Going to be a dodgy year on the OL. Steve Lorenz reports that Grant Newsome has a "minimal" chance of playing in 2017. That is not good. If that's the case you just about have to slide Ben Bredeson outside and run with something like Bredeson/Kugler/Cole/Onwenu/Somebody.

You'd think the leader to be Somebody would be redshirt sophomore-to-be Nolan Ulizio. Ulizio didn't look particularly good when he got in this fall; I've heard that he had mono and was down to 260 at one point. He bounced back during the fall but only to 280. He could surge forward once he gets to the right weight.

A bountiful draft. The NFL's website names Michigan the team poised to send the most talent to the NFL draft:

Early rounds: EDGE Taco Charlton, CB Jourdan Lewis, S Jabrill Peppers, DE Chris Wormley
Middle rounds: TE Jake Butt (injury), WR Amara Darboh, OT Erik Magnuson, RB De'Veon Smith
Late rounds: OG Ben Braden, WR Jehu Chesson, LB Ben Gedeon, DT Ryan Glasgow, S Delano Hill, OG Kyle Kalis, CB Channing Stribling, S Dymonte Thomas

I'd be surprised if Braden and Kalis got picked but everyone else has a real shot of going off the board. Charlton appears to be surging up draft boards to the point where debatably silly things are being said about him:

This is a draft with Myles Garrett in it, so that's a thing.

Harbaugh stories. Chase Goodbread collects them from Michigan players at the Shrine game:

"One time, he told us as a kid he got hit by a mail truck and was in a cast, and was still playing football with it. Then they had to rebreak it -- I can't remember if it was his foot or his arm -- because he kept playing on it and made it worse. I mean, who gets hit by a mail truck? It could only be you, coach Harbaugh." - DB Dymonte Thomas

Screaming works? 538 tracks penalties by which sideline they're thrown on and the results are not encouraging if you're the kind of person who believes people are in charge of things for a reason:

lopez-sideline-1

lopez-sideline-2

This is NFL data and so not directly applicable to college, but you'd think college refs would be even more susceptible to these sorts of things since they're drawn from a wider pool and are probably less capable on average than NFL refs.

So: the defense gets called for "aggressive" penalties ("unnecessary roughness, personal fouls, unsportsmanlike conduct, and horse-collar tackles" per the article) 30-40% more often when there are people complaining nearby.

Meanwhile the holding graph is very strange since the effect inverses once you approach the goal line. The only mechanism there is revenge(!) as side judges who are now far away from the screaming maniacs exact their price. Maybe it evens out for holding.

Not that anyone calls holding anymore. This was one of the main takeaways from the Film Room broadcast of the national title game: Alabama scores thanks to an edge block on which a defender is yanked to the ground; someone exclaims that is a hold; the assembled coaches all laugh about the fact that nobody calls holding any more.

Tracing Michigan's ground game issues. De'Veon Smith is performing impressively at the Shrine game practices:

One of the best players at the East-West Shrine this week has been Michigan running back De'Veon, Smith and he had a tremendous practice on Wednesday. ... Both his route and the blocking earned Smith some a lot of praise from the coaching staff. In the team scrimmage, he also broke off a few chunk runs, weaving his way through defenders with quickness, balance, and vision.

Scouting sources told WalterFootball.com that Smith could be the best offensive prospect on the East team, and he has had a tremendous week to help his draft stock.

Also:

It would be nice if Michigan's problems were because of Smith since he's out the door and Michigan has a number of guys who look like viable replacements; I don't think that's the case, and his rising draft stock concurs. Michigan has a major build job on the offensive line to undertake. Related: TTB has a breakdown of the guys who Michigan recruited and their destinies.

I guess this is fine. Football is set to get a slightly early signing period:

The Division I Football Oversight Committee is moving forward with a proposal that would open a 72-hour signing period for high school recruits in December. The timeframe would correspond with the current December signing time for junior college recruits.

But the committee isn’t recommending an early-signing time for recruits in June.

That "early" period is still after everyone's season, so most of the coaching changes will have already transpired. I didn't like the rumored June signing period since it was inane to lock guys in before they could take official visits and before the firing season.

While the June date didn't make it, an artifact of those earlier discussions may have wormed its way through anyway:

As part of the committee’s proposal, rules on official visits for recruits would also be modified. Recruits would be allowed to take official visits from April-June of their junior years, two months earlier than initially proposed.

That's good for Michigan, which will be able to get early-deciding kids on campus more easily now.

Midterm CSB rankings. Michigan-relevant players ranked by the NHL's central scouting board:

  • F Josh Norris: #46
  • D Luke Martin: #67

...and that's it. Mike Pastujov, who was hyped as a potential first-rounder, is not on the list. The cavalry is not coming next year.

Shooting a gun with no bullets in it. There is a Mississippi state senator who thinks he has a magic wand:

Mississippi Rep. Trey Lamar (R-Senatobia) has proposed a new House Bill that would surely benefit Ole Miss’ current recruiting woes: The National Collegiate Athletic Association Fairness in F.A.C.T Investigation Act of 2017.

Lamar, a former Rebels walk-on running back from the early 2000s, is pushing a bill giving the NCAA one year to complete its investigation once it notifies a school of possible rules violations, according to a report from WCBI News.

NCAA: "Or what?"
TREY LAMAR:  "Or I shall name a bill at you a second time!"

This is not how state government works, Trey Lamar. FWIW, various coaches at AFCA project that Ole Miss will find out their fate in 2-3 months, and that it will not be pretty. Or it will, because NCAA.

Etc.: Fired Alabama DL coach Bo Davis talks to AL.com, attempts to spin a tale about how his firing was for one violation of the bump rule, cumong man. Analyst Rick Finotti gets the head job at DIII John Carroll. Dumb, but important. The playoff is good. Willis Ward and the track captaincy. Recruiting rankings are getting better because of Hudl. Yost, 1946.

Comments

mGrowOld

January 19th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

Kill the feedback loop and watch what happens. As much as officials always say they aren't influenced by coaches and fans they clearly are and every study ever done confirms it. It's pretty easy to fix but to do would acknowledge that they're influenced today which is why they won't do it. Put officials in sound deadening headphones so they get no feedback from crowd or coach. Basketball tried that a few years ago and the results were pretty remarkable- home court advantage disappeared.

Maison Bleue

January 19th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^

Maybe I have no idea what I am talking about, but officiating seems like a job that requires more than just vision(maybe more so for basketball, to hear arm slaps and such), hearing seems like it would be an important part of officiating.

I also feel like Harbaugh yelling at officials has the opposite effect on them. They seem to get worse out of spite, but maybe that is me wearing maize and blue goggles.

DonAZ

January 19th, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^

I think football is a sport where the sound-deadening headphones could work.

(As opposed to, say, baseball where the sound of the ball meeting mitt is used to determine safe or out on close calls at first base.)

Might have to insitute a timeout official on the sideline to hear for and react to coaches calling TO.

Bertello NC

January 19th, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^

Newsome out really sucks! I honestly do not see Bredeson becoming what we need at LT. I know he may be there out of necessity but man that is not an ideal situation. IMO he's a G all the way. Really anticipating what the staff comes up with. Hopefully we end up having some surprise dudes really step up and pan out. Even if they're freshman.

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

OwenGoBlue

January 19th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^

Bredeson has the length to be a serviceable tackle but his ceiling there is probably solid to good as opposed to awesome at guard.

Less than ideal but I'm a lot more worried about RT. This may be a year where we see a lot of TEs and friends staying in to pass block on that side.

Having Newsome, an absolute prototype LT, out for 1.5 years is bad but on the bright side at least the chatter of his career being over seems to have died down. Get well soon Grant!

umbig11

January 19th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^

Everyone wants to move Bredeson. That is very unlikely to happen. The jury is still out on a Kugler's return. The staff has been very consistent in saying that the inside will not move (Bredeson/Cole/Onwenu). Tackles are wide open. Filiaga/JBB/Ulizio will battle it out and we may see a grad transfer.

TrueBlue2003

January 19th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^

at least for the spring. Thanks for the info.  Scary options at both tackles.  I could see one of those guys ending up being viable, but both is highly unlikely.  Here's hoping for a good grad transfer.  Have to believe when push comes to shove (literally), if we aren't able to pass protect and if either Kugler or Ruiz is viable at one of the inside spots, we'd see Cole or Bredeson kick out.

CalifExile

January 19th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^

Last August the staff told us "Bredeson is pushing Newsome." But after the injury they moved Braden out to OT and left Bredeson at G. Does this mean the staff has concluded that Bredeson can't handle OT? That would surprise me but it's the only way I can make sense of this. Otherwise, Brian's projected OL looks right.

evenyoubrutus

January 19th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^

If that is indeed our O line, that's still 3 spots that are potentially very good, if not great. I feel like we could get by with mediocre tackles, maybe not at a championship level, but look at OSU this past year. their O line was truly atrocious, and yet they still went 11-2. And it's not like their offense was loaded with talent either.

Kevin13

January 19th, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^

that I don't see Bredeson working out at LT. Let's hope Ruiz is as good as they are saying and can play center right out of the gate. Maybe we move Cole back out and have a line of Cole, Bredeson, Ruiz, Onwenu and let all the other tackles fight it out to start at RT. I would think we have enough bodies to find a decent RT.

Catchafire

January 19th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^

I'm happy for Smith, but not happy about the offensive line. If we had newsome, I think we beat Iowa and fOSU.

In a way, I can see why Najee went to Bama over us. When you have ogres, trolls, and minotaurs blocking for you your job as a running back is incredibly easy.

A great offense line will make a 3 star running back look good, just like a great QB can make a 3 star look amazing. I attribute Ruddock for making Darboh and Chesson look amazing last year while it seems as if they "regressed" this year.

A great coach can make a team filled with 3 stars and 4 stars look good, Harbaugh.

If we dont fix our offensive line issues we are in hot shit next season, and deep hard dodo.

M Ascending

January 19th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^

Looks like Deveon may be the next Thomas Rawls. Good for him; but it doesn't say much for our OL, OL coach, or RB coach.

This problem seems to go back even to the Carr days, where the mantra was that we recruited great talent but failed to develop it.

Mr Miggle

January 19th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^

He was a low 4* with a big limitation, one that was projected to keep him out of the NFL. We were his only offer when he committed.

He developed into a multi-year starter at Michigan and an NFL prospect, despite lacking the speed NFL teams expect from a RB. It's silly to blame the coaching he received here. He didn't suddenly become a good RB on his first day of practice for a bowl game. Better OL play would have given him better statistics, wouldn't have turned him in a higher draft pick.

 

CalifExile

January 19th, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^

Put blame where it belongs. We had good OL development under RR. Greg Frey, who is now turning out AA OL at Indiana, put guys like Taylor Lewan, Omameh, Schofield and Barnum on the right track. Drevno has shown his ablity in previous jobs at Stanford and USC. It's the guys who got their foundation from Funk who have underperformed on the OL.

StephenRKass

January 19th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^

Dumb but important is a fascinating, horrifying link. Here is the relevant photo for those who are too lazy to link through (proportions are altered, and I don't know how to adjust):

Dragon XIII

January 19th, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^

Early rounds: EDGE Taco Charlton, CB Jourdan Lewis, S Jabrill Peppers, DE Chris Wormley
Middle rounds: TE Jake Butt (injury), WR Amara Darboh, OT Erik Magnuson, RB De'Veon Smith
Late rounds: OG Ben Braden, WR Jehu Chesson, LB Ben Gedeon, DT Ryan Glasgow, S Delano Hill, OG Kyle Kalis, CB Channing Stribling, S Dymonte Thomas

 

I thought Stribling was applying for a medical redshirt?  Was that denied already or did he declare for the draft?  Or is this just the analyst's best guess with current knowledge and assuming everyone eligible declares?

Don

January 19th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^

has a serious case of irrational exuberance that has lasted far longer than four hours and should seek medical attention immediately.

OwenGoBlue

January 19th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^

Kalis is going to get drafted much to the chagrin of this space.

He has NFL size, can move people and has played a ton of B1G football. Those guys usually get drafted. If he tests well it might even be in the middle rounds.

BrownJuggernaut

January 19th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^

Another OL post but are we completely writing off JBB? He played some LT this year and struggled but at least he has some experience. It's likely that a freshman will have to step up, which is not where you'd like to be.