Unverified Voracity Takes The Oath

Submitted by Brian on November 29th, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Trey Burke NIT Season Tip Off d4nRm9HXEQpl[1]

Not for long. Baumgardner rounds up a couple of draft evals on Trey Burke, who is now in the top 20 at DraftExpress and SI:

As Michigan rises in the rankings, so does Burke, an adept ball handler who reads defenses well and excels in ball-screen situations, an NBA bread-and-butter play. Burke continues to be a little sloppy at times, but he is boosting his draft stock significantly in his second season. Burke's field-goal percentage (48.1) and three-point percentage (37) are up from last season.

ESPN's Chad Ford doesn't seem to have updated since the season started.

Not spotted: Tim Hardaway Jr, which is a bit of a surprise given his lights-out start to the season. Hardaway is still languishing in the second round of DX's 2014 mock behind luminaries like Josh Smith and Adriean Payne. Apparently he'll have to continue turning heads through the Big Ten season to break through in draft analysts's minds. Given his start, I think we're expecting that.

(Side note: GRIII has dropped to 25th in 2014 on DX. Meanwhile, both Pitt starting forwards feature on that 2014 mock draft with Stephen Adams 15th and Talib Zanna a second-rounder. Michigan outrebounded those guys badly. NC State meanwhile has the #7 and #8 guys in 2014 and the #20 guy this year. Michigan has already beaten some talented teams.)

Early unreliable tempo free numbers. I hereby take the Kenpom Small Sample Size Oath I understand that player stats are based on extremely limited information in mid-November. A quick check of Kenpom reveals four early trends that leap off the page:

  • Unstoppable Throw-Ball-In-Hoop-God Nik Stauskas. Stauskas is currently 4th in ORtg, a composite measure that weights various offensive stats together, 5th in effective field goal percentage, first in true shooting percentage (eFG adjusted for frequency of FT attempts and FT shooting), near the top 50 in TO rate, and is drawing free throws more frequently than anyone on the team. That is all nuts. He'll come down to earth… maybe. His usage is about where Novak was last year; so far he is an offensive upgrade on a guy who shot 85/56/41 from FT/2/3 last year.
  • GRIII OReb upgrade. GRIII is the second-best offensive rebounder on the team and is grabbing more than double the opportunities Novak did last year. Not that I'm picking on Novak. It enrages me when people say "John Beilein finally has a lights-out shooter" when Novak shot 41% last year. Novak was awesome. What I am saying is that between Stauskas and GRIII, Michigan has upgraded its shooting and rebounding by splitting Novak into two different people, both of whom are bigger than him.
  • THJ complete game watch. After six games, Hardaway is the team's second-best defensive rebounder at 19% and has drastically increased his shooting inside and outside the arc; his TO rate has hardly budged from his extremely good freshman number. Assists are actually down so far.
  • Big Puppy sucks up all the rebounds. If Mitch McGary had played 40% of his team's minutes instead of 36% he would rank 8th in offensive rebound percentage and 29th in defensive rebound percentage. He is of course blowing everyone out of the water in this regard so far.

Obviously there's a long way to go before we get much of an idea how legit any of these things are; I remember Michigan being an outstanding defensive rebounding team in the nonconference schedule last year, but click that conference-only box on Kenpom and 2012 Michigan drops from 99th—good—to 9th in conference—not good. This year Michigan's defensive rebounding is 4th nationally, but how will it hold up in the Big Ten? Probably better, but how much? Etc.

Speaking of Novak. UMHoops interviews him:

As for Glenn playing an undersized four, he is built like an upperclassman already so I don’t think he’s going to be getting pushed around by very many people.  I think as he gains experience and gets a feel for what players can do at that level, he’ll have no problem guarding guys down low.  I think a lot of players underestimate how effective just playing “solid” down low can be.  Many guys in college basketball struggle to score through a strong chest.  Figure out how to hold your ground and you have won half of the battle.  When he stays between his man and the basket, he can be more effective than I was because of his great length.  There were times I could guard a guy perfectly, but he’d just shoot it right over me.  That shouldn’t happen to him as much.

He doesn't bite on the "potential undoing" question; I will: foul trouble for Robinson would force Michigan into the rickety two-post offense for extended periods and could bring things down. There isn't really a guy who can spell him and shoot unless it's Bielfeldt.

The enduring legacy of DJ Jazzy Jeff. Athlon surveys college basketball players anonymously:

Have you ever received benefits from a booster?

Yes (13.7%)

No (86.3%)

Have you ever had a grade changed because you were an athlete?

Yes (15.1%)

No (84.9%)

Those seem like high numbers, but not as high as these:

What is your favorite TV show?

Family Guy (9.6%)

Fresh Prince (6.8%)

Martin (6.8%)

Entourage (5.5%)

Everybody Hates Chris (5.5%)

SportsCenter (5.5%)

Fresh Prince of Bel Air went off the air in 1996, and Martin in 1997, which means these kids were like two or three. [HT: Daily Gopher]

More alumni points. Michigan's changed the priority points system to further prioritize alumni and former letterwinners, but the thing I found fascinating was the chart MLaw06 attached to his diary:

  Current

1 Alum

(+15)

2 Alums

(+30)

1 Athlete

(+45)

2 Athletes

(+90)

25% 3.82 18.82 33.82 48.82 93.82
50% 21.2 36.2 51.2 66.2 111.2
90% 174.67 189.67 204.67 219.67 264.67
95% 326.65 341.65 356.65 371.65 416.65
99% 1365.81 1380.81 1395.81 1410.81 1455.81

Climbing halfway up the points list costs about 2000 bucks; getting to 90 costs as much as a new car. (A new car!) The change deflates point values slightly but on a 1-1 ratio that's like giving alums an extra $1,500 head start on other folk. Opinions on this will be split down the middle between alums and non-alums.

Ah yup. Via Maize and Blue Nation, correlation:

M-O Rushing[1]

The strength of that correlation may change if Michigan gets aggressive about throwing under Borges. Right now, pretty stark, especially those two years under 40 rushing yards.

Protip: don't do this. Former ND hockey player Riley Sheahan arrested wearing a teletubby costume (Tinky Winky, if you're interested). Arrest is for being drunk and driving; drunkenly stated he had not finished high school when asked if there was anything that might prevent him from properly answering the questions. Was carrying a teammate's license on him. None of this is good. Except the costume.

BONUS: Apparently "superdrunk" is a term of law in this state?

JongShow. Hockey commit Nolan DeJong is profiled by the Hockey News:

“I like to be offensive,” he said. “But I take pride in my defense. I’d say my stability, my size and reach are my strengths. I like to be as active as possible, but I want to work on my positioning.”

De Jong would also admit he’s not the most physical out there, but has a pretty good role model right now in locked-out Colorado Avalanche rearguard Ryan O’Byrne, who is a volunteer coach for his hometown Victoria squad while the NHL is on ice. De Jong also worked out with O’Byrne and Jeff Compton, whose clients include several NHL and Western League franchises, in the off-season.

Etc.: Four Michigan guys make the BTN All-Freshman team. I look forward to a day when that number is zero, or one or something. Next year probably won't be that year since redshirts are included and Michigan figures to start at least two freshman OL.

Big Ten title game not a hot seller. With how spread out the conference is going to be it might be wise to just make it a home game for the team with the better conference record, with record of your conference opponents breaking ties.

Leftover Big Ten/ACC thoughts from Brennan. Minnesota is kind of good this year; mentally swap those guys with Wisconsin. College hockey features on Grantland. This post about the athletics bubble may overreach a bit but the general outline is right. People who decided to add Maryland say adding Maryland is a good idea. NC State/Michigan key plays. Barking Carnival interviews Texas F Girl.

Comments

dnak438

November 29th, 2012 at 5:19 PM ^

I was once in court in AA because I lived on Linden St and the house I lived in got a ticket during the block party (for a noise violation). There were a lot of people in court that day for being very, very drunk while driving (into parked cars, without a license, etc.). So "superdrunk" seems to me an appropriate term to introduce.

Blue boy johnson

November 29th, 2012 at 4:59 PM ^

The reason Steve Adams of Pitt is rated so high is because he is a Center and a 7' one at that.

The thought of Max Bielfeldt replacing GRIII as a shooter is mind numbing. Completely different games. Offensively, Bielfeldt is a post and GRIII is a wing. To replace GRIII shooting, Hardaway, Burke, Stauskas and Vogrich need to shoot more and play more. Or you could move Burke to the 2 and play Spike more minutes. Another possibility would be burn Levert's RS (unlikely).

If you are concerned a two post offense will cause M to be "Rickety", playing Bielfeldt is not a solution.

MGoShoe

November 29th, 2012 at 4:59 PM ^

...about F Bomb girl is Texas was down 38-9 when this happened. Prior to this play,did she think they were going to stage a comeback? Yes, she did. I salute her fandom.

matty blue

November 29th, 2012 at 5:04 PM ^

...never, never, never happen, unfortunately.  the big ten likes to shop stuff around, and as soon as...er...whoever is hosting it now (i don't even know, which illustrates the problem) backs out of a money-losing proposition, there will be five other stupid domed stadiums lined up to take their place.

it would be FANTASTIC, though.  i'd LOVE to to into columbus to take the trophy.  old school, baby.

Everyone Murders

November 29th, 2012 at 5:41 PM ^

That's a great article Brian linked (to Barking Carnival at the end of the post) with the interview of University of Texas F-Bomb Girl.  Is it worth trying to set her and Face Palm Guy up?

We could help create a super race of demonstrative fandom!  (I'm generally against creating super races, but may be willing to make an exception.)

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 29th, 2012 at 5:50 PM ^

The way her jaw rises at the end of the "Ahhhhh, Fuuuuuu..." makes it seem as if she is enunciating an "N" sound, as in "Ahhhhhhhhh, FuuuuuuuNN".  If only one could see how her tongue is rolling to see if it's a "ckk" sound and her tongue is pressed to the bottom of her mouth or the aforementioned "nnn" and her tongue is press toward the roof of her mouth.

I've been looing at this for too long...and

 

 

She's obviously saying F**k....I know.

Sambojangles

November 29th, 2012 at 9:19 PM ^

I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding of the "Superdrunk" law is to distinguish DUIs between  egregiously drunk drivers (Sheahan) and the borderline cases (blowing between a .08 and .14, I think). It gives judges better guidelines in sentencing, so judges don't go to extremes, like Kim Small throwing Jalen Rose in jail for a first-time offense.

1989 UM GRAD

November 29th, 2012 at 10:08 PM ^

It's starting to look very likely that we lose three underclassmen from this team. Burke, Hardaway and GR3 are all performing like potential first round picks. And what if Staskas continues to make 3's at a 60% clip? I know it's been said many times, but hats off to this coaching staff for identifying and nurturing under-the-radar talent.