Unverified Voracity Knew That Already

Submitted by Brian on October 13th, 2015 at 2:56 PM

Pasted image at 2015_10_13 02_19 PMSponsor note. I tailgate, but I do not set up tailgates. They are a large undertaking. If you are daunted by such an undertaking, Tailgater Concierge can take care of all that for you. They'll reserve you a space, set up chairs and tables and silverware, and grab whatever food you desire.

Then they clean it all up afterward so you can be inside the stadium before Grapentine asks the band to take the field. They have spots at Pioneer right across from the stadium for maximal efficiency and real bathrooms. If you've got a corporate event they can take a load off your mind, as well.

They're coming. They're wearing gorilla suits and transformer heads.

You can also check out this guy's Oreos review.

YOU DON'T SAY. The infinite anger machine can take slight at anything, including "people looking at football":

We'll see how much that chip helps against Jim Harbaugh.

Breaking down the beast. PFF takes a look at Michigan's "terrifying" defense:

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this defensive run isn’t the results, but the grading at the heart of it. Of 26 players that Michigan has used on defense this year just two of them have a below-average grade, and none is worse than a -1.8, which is still closer to average than disastrous.

16 of those 26 have strong positive grades and of the players that are left, five of them have played fewer than 20 snaps. In fact, the Wolverines have just one player on defense that has played 100 or more snaps and doesn’t have a significantly positive grade.

They include a number of illustrative graphics as well:

They are happy to leave defenders in man coverage and attack with overload blitzes up front, and that too happens with speed, but watching any time Northwestern tried to gain the edge against this team was an incredible display of hustle by the Wolverines.

2015-10-12_10-55-26[1]

Take the play above, which was not in any way held up or delayed. A simple option trying to stretch the defense and the running back ends up facing five separate defenders all converging on him behind the line of scrimmage. That should not happen, and does not happen with most defenses. There wasn’t even a catastrophic breakdown in blocking assignments to create it. The Wolverines just read, diagnose and attack the football like a pack of hungry dogs chasing after a wayward ribeye steak.

There is much more; strongly recommend you read the whole thing.

A slight difference. Brian Fremeau's stats site has game-by-game breakdowns in which he assigns point values to all three phases of the game. For example, against Utah the offense was –6.2, the defense –1.8 and the ST +1.0. These aren't schedule adjusted, they're just trying to explain where the final margin came from.

I particularly like Fremeau's special teams numbers in this department because he takes field position into account for field goals and punts and the like—his stats are going to understand that a 32-yard punt that ends at the 3 is a good thing. Also, SOS isn't a huge factor on special teams.

Shall we review this year versus last year?

2014

Wk Opponent ST
1 Appalachian State 5.3
2 Notre Dame -5.2
3 Miami (OH) -1.3
4 Utah -9.5
5 Minnesota -4.1
6 Rutgers -0.4
7 Penn State 3.5
9 Michigan State 3.8
10 Indiana 1.8
11 Northwestern 6.8
13 Maryland -3.1
14 Ohio State -1.7
  TOTAL -4.1

2015

Wk Opponent ST
1 Utah 1
2 Oregon State 4.2
3 UNLV 1.7
4 BYU 3
5 Maryland 5.9
6 Northwestern 10.6
  TOTAL 26.4

Much of Michigan's positive value last year came on a blocked punt that Gedeon returned for a TD against Appalachian State. I'm not actually sure what Michigan did to get solidly above zero midway through the season other than blocking a Northwestern field goal. Best guess is that the punting was good and they didn't give up big returns for that section of the season.

Anyway: things are different now.

Goodbye to The Head Ball Coach. Steve Spurrier was and is a living avatar of college football and why it's so awesome. He ran up the score, he bombed people in press conferences after, he talked like a human. He simultaneously had all and no chill. He was college football's Roger Sterling. In the aftermath of his departure people collect his best lines

7. On a fire at the Auburn library that destroyed 20 books: “The real tragedy was that 15 hadn’t been colored yet.”

…and even those who hated him admit that he was pretty awesome. Spencer on Spurrier is required reading:

Another coach Spurrier liked to tweak later in his career was Nick Saban, someone Spurrier would point out had taken the Alabama and LSU jobs.

"If he wants to be the greatest coach or one of the greatest coaches in college football, to me, he has to go somewhere besides Alabama and win, because they've always won there at Alabama."

You could take favorable jobs as a bad coach and look okay, or take great jobs as a good coach and look orders of magnitude better than you might actually be.

Spurrier, in contrast, took the Duke, Florida and South Carolina jobs, jobs that were garbage scows before he arrived. He won at all three, in biblical fashion — the Old Testament Bible, where locusts ate your crops, lightning blew up your houses, and your village was flattened by a tidal wave before your rescue boat was swallowed by a whale. He drew the ire of illiterate nanny-take pissmerchants like New York columnist Mike Lupica, who accused Spurrier of running up the score, whatever that means.

Hard to imagine the HBC existing in any other sport. I plan on sleeping well past Gameday but if you want to do me and college football a favor, it would be pretty awesome to see a Hatin' Ass Spurrier sign.

What are you even doing? BC Interruption breaks down the ludicrous ending of their 3-0 loss against Wake Forest. After recovering a fumble on the Wake Forest 11 with 56 seconds left. BC ends up with first and goal, 29 seconds left on the Wake Forest 1:

0:29 left, 1st and goal from the Wake Forest 2.  108 seconds after the possession began.

Because the play wasn't communicated to the team, BC huddles and as Chris Berman would say "tick..tick.tick".  The Eagles break the huddle and with everyone in the building screaming at them to hurry up snap the ball some 11 seconds after the ball was marked ready for play at the 18 second mark.  The game was essentially down to one play.

Result:  Rouse runs the ball into the A gap on the right side.  The play is blown up and Rouse does not even quite make it back to the original line of scrimmage.  The whistle is blown with 12 seconds remaining on the clock.

From 29 seconds with a stopped clock for a first down, BC gets one play off. That reminds me of you know who. At worst BC should have been able to spike the clock and then take two shots on pass plays before a do-or-die fourth down (or, knowing Addazio, a chip shot field goal).

Just brutal. Everyone needs a Madden 14 Year Old Assistant.

On joking about problems that turn out to be serious. I am frequently bothered by the rush to condemn people on twitter with egg avatars who have terrible opinions. (Exception: "Denard Robinson is not a QB" eggs during his tenure at Michigan. You people can go straight to hell.)

When something like CC Sabathia entering rehab transpires there is inevitably a flood of righteous tweets that seem directed at Mike Lupica columns from 1980 that do not in fact exist. These are designed to acquire twitter status, which is the worst status to have. I do not give twitter points to people for not having awful opinions, or pointing out that other people should not have awful opinions. You get none of my points. You are wasting everyone's time.

This just came up in college football when Steve Sarkisian's alcohol issues went from an odd but isolated incident to a scary pattern, and I think Ryan Nanni hit exactly the right tone in response:

I think we make these jokes because we see these as isolated ncidents of failure, like laughing at a friend who busts his ass on an icy sidewalk or has a soda explode when he opens it. Steve Sarkisian getting drunk at a booster dinner is funny, in isolation, because it's wildly unexpected. Placed in the larger context of what appears to be fairly serious alcohol problem? Now I just feel like an asshole for that throwaway tweet, laughing and pointing at someone who's grappling with a disease that sent over a million American adults (and another 73,000 adolescents) to treatment in 2013.

This isn't me putting on my Joke Police badge; one of the fundamental aspects of EDSBS is that we write what we think is funny, even if other people don't, and that's fine. Declarations that something is or is not humorous are as tiring as they are useless. It's like claiming shrimp is poison because you have a shellfish allergy. You can still think Steve Sarkisian coaching the Arizona State game under the influence is really funny, and I'll disagree with you.

Back when the Brendan Gibbons thing was going down there were a number of commenters who yelled at me because I didn't make the prescribed statements about how rape is awful. I don't do that because it's obvious and I don't need to polish my wand in public. If you demand someone else do it it's probably because you're not as great of a dude as you want to make everyone think you are.

Injuries. Injuries will be a major story for the game. Michigan has a banged-up running back corps, with De'Veon Smith missing the Maryland game and both Smith and Johnson limited against the Wildcats. Joe Kerridge missed the two games before Northwestern but seems fine now. Channing Stribling has missed the last two games but should be ready to go against the Spartans:

"It was longer than a one week (injury)," coach Jim Harbaugh said Monday. "He was very, very close this past weekend. He could've played, but we thought it was more prudent to not play him.

"I do (expect he'll play Saturday)."

Michigan is also down Bryan Mone and Mario Ojemudia for the year. They will also be without James Ross for the first half—and in MSU Michigan finally plays a team they want to run a bunch of 4-3 against.

MSU has a slightly longer list of the wounded, most importantly on the offensive line. Backup LT Dennis Finley is done for the year. Jack Conklin hasn't played in two weeks; he was available in an "emergency" against Rutgers but it's kind of hard to imagine what that emergency could have been that didn't see him on the field late. That's because Kody Kieler tried to give it a go but had to leave, and very late center Jack Allen took a nasty hit from the side that knocked him out of the game.

Anywhere from zero to three of those guys will be available; I'm guessing that both tackles suit up and at least try to play. Allen is a much murkier proposition. Some dubious twitter rumors held that he was done for the year but in that case you'd probably have confirmation from the program, and from students on campus who spot the guy in a cast or something. I wouldn't lend those much credence.

Changing some minds. Inside NU's podcast covers the Michigan game this week, and they kick it off by talking about how the atmosphere inside the stadium greatly exceeded its reputation:

There's a lot of interest to M fans until about the 25 minute mark, when they turn the page to Iowa.

They also have an article up from a former Northwestern linebacker detailing the various things that went wrong. I'll address it in more detail in UFR; you can read it now.

Surprise. The only difference between Laremy Tunsil and the other guys Ole Miss has pirated away from bigger programs is that Tunsil had a stepfather sell him out. He has been reinstated after it was revealed had acquired a raft of illicit benefits:

Ole Miss is lucky to get Laremy Tunsil back at all.

That was my first thought reading the full list of charges brought by the NCAA against Tunsil, and after letting it digest for a little while it still holds. The list of impermissible benefits Tunsil has received in Oxford is lengthy and more than just the one loaner car which had been previously reported. It was about three of them, over a six-month period without payment. A four-month interest-free promissory note on a $3,000 down payment for purchasing a used vehicle, two nights of lodging at a local home, an airline ticket purchased by a friend of a teammate and one day use of a rental vehicle were also among the impermissible benefits Tunsil has received in Oxford. Tunsil was also apparently less than truthful with the NCAA when first asked about all these things, and the NCAA is a lot like a mother in this regard: lying only makes it worse.

That is just the tip of the iceberg, no doubt. In addition to being the right thing to do, paying people legitimately will help reduce the impact of side benefits like Tunsil's. I think the NCAA needs to give up the ghost here and focus exclusively on making guys get actual educations, but I remain annoyed at programs that are flagrantly breaking every rule they can think of before that happens.

Etc.: Carr to the M Athletics HOF.Weather for MSU tentatively expected to be chilly but dry. Dude who exposed the Volkswagen fraud was a Michigan alum. Mama said knock you out: Michigan is killin' em early. Weztel on the game. Warning: autoplaying audio.

Hinton on the aftermath at USC. Excellent data-laden Kirk Goldsberry article on how unassisted two point jumpers are the devil. Mr. Harbaughchav, build up this wall. Inside the basketball offense. Holdin' The Rope.

Comments

MaizeJacket

October 13th, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^

BC had actually fumbled inside the 10 BEFORE Wake's last possession, on which Wake had fumbled.  So, in reality, BC had TWO cracks to score from inside the 10 inside the final two minutes.

South TX MFan

October 13th, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^

Even if you take out all of the negative scores from last year's special teams rankings it still doesn't surpass what we've done this year so far. VERY happy to finally have good special teams play.

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yossarians tree

October 14th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^

Don't know if this was mentioned but Spurrier is going to be on the Game Day set this weekend. He told Dan Patrick that he's never been to the Big House and was looking forward to it. It's interesting because just last week I was thinking how much Lee Corso sucks and who could replace him and the first guy I thought was the Ol' Ball Coach.

blue-guava

October 13th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^

Michigan's proficiency running stunts has to be a big factor this week, right? That MSU oline is so beat up that they probably haven't had time to gel as a unit. They're going to have a hard time communicating and figuring out how to block Michigan's stunts effectively.

Code-7

October 13th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^

Wtf does that mean?? It means he is a sensitive Sally. MSU has not been crushing teams during their undefeated run. As someone mentioned yesterday on the board, there is a reason this oxygen thief is not a team captain.

Eberwhite82

October 13th, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^

From the Wetzel article, describing M's defense: "brunt force trauma defense."

While not quite "unverified voracity," that's still a precious botching of a colloquilism.

misterpage

October 13th, 2015 at 9:35 PM ^

Saturday was my first game at the big house in awhile. I had seen posters complaining about the wave this year so when it started I was expecting it to die pretty quick. Boy was I wrong. The students were cheering on the rest of the stadium and the slow mo, fast wave were great. That whole sequence was a lot of fun.

The stadium and town were electric last weekend. Let's keep it goin!! GO BLUE!

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24-12

October 13th, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^

What was that about?  We had just stopped them to a 4th and 17 and Jim is going nuts.  Millen and the other clown went on about it but never defined what Jim was irate about?  Was there offensive interference or something not called?

GoBluenoser

October 13th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^

I don't see why we are projecting to run a lot of 4-3.  I feel Staee could have 14 blocky-catchy types on the field and won't be able to do anything on our nickel IMHO.  

poppinfresh

October 13th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^

I know stats don't mean much and i am not adjusting for strength of schedule, but it's state week and I have too much free time

Using the stats from Brian Fremeau, I took the average from each category for both MSU and Michigan leading into the game from the all the games to begin that respective season

Taking those averages and comparing them category by category (Michigan O - MSU O) I got the three deltas between the respective teams.  Adding those up (3 phases of the game equally weighted), it looks like we have our best shot to win this year since 2012.   (the only postive year).

Cool story bro, assumptions and meaning may be minimal, but it makes me feel warm and fuzzy

  Michigan MSU Delta Sum
  O ST O ST O ST
2015 3.7 14.3 4.4 13.6 0.7 (2.4) (9.9) 13.6 6.8 10.5
2014 (2.1) 3.6 (1.7) 13.0 5.1 0.9 (15.1) (1.5) (2.6) (19.2)
2013 8.9 4.5 (0.7) 1.6 14.5 (0.3) 7.3 (9.9) (0.5) (3.1)
2012 3.7 5.3 0.4 (2.1) 7.6 (0.8) 5.9 (2.3) 1.2 4.8

 

flashOverride

October 13th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^

The Cook comment. Good God. It's a fucking road game against a Top 15 opponent, you whiny bitch. A lot of teams are going to be a dog in that situation, even when they're higher ranked. And that's before we even get into your ho-hum performance most of this year. Please please please beat the brakes off this team, Jim. They are just insufferable. 

Autostocks

October 13th, 2015 at 6:40 PM ^

Giving credit to the M alum from ICCT for uncovering the VW fraud is a bit of a stretch.  ICCT actually contracted the research out to the Center for Alternative Fuels Engines and Emissions at West Virginia University.  The guy who led the research team is Dan Carder.

mekufobe

October 13th, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^

Start   working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job I've had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this - 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour. I work through this link, go to tech tab for work detail
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