Unverified Voracity Has A New Favorite Stanford Player Comment Count

Brian July 16th, 2008 at 3:29 PM

DUDE. California QB Tate Forcier is the younger brother of former Michigan QB Jason and has a website up with offer letters, personal photographs, stats, and a bunch more stuff. Amongst the personal photos is Jason Forcier in an old school "Worst State Ever" shirt:

Awesome. You, reader, should probably buy four. Tate, by the way, is the one in the hoodie.

We might not die. Michigan fans look to Vegas for reassurance they won't end up in Detroit against a MAC team this winter, and Vegas provides. Earlier this year they provided absurdly good odds for a Michigan national title, naming M the tenth most likely to win it all. Those are sucker bets, though, and their latest available bet proves that:

Team Projected Wins
Ohio State 10
Penn State 8.5
Wisconsin 8.5
Michigan 8
Illinois 8
Iowa 7.5
Michigan State 7
Purdue 6.5
Northwestern 6.5
Indiana 5
Minnesota 4.5

That's Vegas's over-under for the entire Big Ten, which still might be a sucker bet susceptible to public perception -- Iowa at 6th? -- but 8 wins is way more plausible than tenth overall. The best bet, IMO: the Minnesota under.

Taiwan. That's where Arizona transfer and likely starting point guard* Laval Lucas Perry most recently played. He didn't shoot well, but it was only three games. Here's the first half of one:

Feel the excitement of basketball in Taiwan!

*(once January rolls around; Perry has to sit out the fall semester because of his transfer.)

Etc.: How West Virginians see America. Made by a West Virginian, so don't blame me.


big gay heart

July 16th, 2008 at 3:39 PM ^

What is the methodology behind these Vegas predictions? Does anyone know? I'd love 8 wins and maybe M will get there, but it's tough to come up with a rationale beyond the fact that (a) Michigan always has talented athletes and (b) M will play at least 5 really crappy teams.


July 16th, 2008 at 3:46 PM ^

1) Thanks for the new posts. The stoopid was reaching critical levels in the evolving "Tebow is overrated!" thread. 2) Am I the only one who loves the entire Forcier family, despite the fact that one of them transferred(for completely legitimate reasons, of course), and another may not even come here?


July 16th, 2008 at 3:47 PM ^

After the obvious Minnesota under, Illinois under is the next best bet by far. 8 wins? With Juice Williams expected to take control of everything? Hah.

Daniel L

July 16th, 2008 at 3:53 PM ^

There's actually a big difference between expected wins and chance to win the MNC.  You have to look at the distributions under them.  Looking at a group of games for Michigan (PSU/Wisconsin/Illinois) if Michigan can win 1, then they can likely win them all, and only OSU would be a large threat.  If Michigan loses to one of those teams, they are likely to lose to all 3.

Based on the Vegas odds and win expectancies, I'd wager it's highly likely Michigan's distribution curve has "mini-peaks" around 5 win and 11 wins.  This is not the say the odds or 5 wins are the same as the odds of 11, but that Michigan is more likely to win 11 than 10, or 5 than 6/7 than a normal distribution would suggest.

In normal words, if I have a 10% chance to win $15, and a 90% chance to win $5, my expected return is $6.  If I have a 50% chance to win $5 and a 50% chance to win $7 my expected return is also $6.  However, it's pretty clear that the upside is higher in the first set of outcomes.

I wouldn't call them suckers bets Bryan.  It's in Vegas' best interest to set lines/expectencies right on the dot.  They want the same amound of money on both sides of the deal (in the case of odds to win MNC they want money according to the odds).  Everything in Vegas is set to give the house a very small take from a ton of transactions.  In aggregate, you're not really betting against the house in sports betting, you're betting against the people on the other side of the line, and Vegas takes a 1-2% skim for enabling the transaction.

Ninja Football

July 16th, 2008 at 3:56 PM ^

@Huss: If the mom's hot count me in. Hey BGH: Did you buy that new Nas album? And if so, how is it? I've been projecting 9 wins (cross the fingers) if everything works out right, so 8 isn't that far off. Plus Vegas is usually just about dead on. Brian, Where's that link to the "Football at Ohio State" title page? I did a search but can't find it.


July 16th, 2008 at 4:08 PM ^

I heard that more people from michigan visit Vegas than from any state except California. If true, (no checking), I would assume the futures lines get bumped up when dealing with all Michigan teams in response to homer wagering. Dealing with a local book for UM will most often get you a higher number than if you were to call overseas.

Daniel L

July 16th, 2008 at 4:19 PM ^

All teams have homer wagering.  In addition, if a line was pumped by Michigan homers away from what is a really expected then money from professionals would likely come into play to equalize the lines.  Vegas definitely wants to spur betting, but it wants to spur betting on BOTH SIDES of the line.  And yes, while fanbases can be more irrational in certain cases and cause line movement (UM and ND are good examples because of their large followings and money'ed alumni base) the overall effect would be very small (maybe a point on a per game spread, half a game on a win expectancy).  The most extreme example of this was the -3 Michigan/ND spread last fall.  There was no possible way the teams were that close based on watching them play. I believe it opened at -3 and closed at -9.5 or something.  It's pretty rare Vegas gets an opening line that wrong in lieu of something big happening in the interim.


July 16th, 2008 at 4:15 PM ^

@ ninja the nas album is good. not a classic by any means but a pretty solid effort. i didn't care for the beat selection on a few tracks but it's definitely worth checking out.

Tim Waymen

July 16th, 2008 at 5:46 PM ^

It's okay so far.  For now, I liked Hip Hop Is Dead more.  I need to listen to the whole thing.  It's too bad he left out "War Is Necessary" and "Be a (N word), Too."  He needs to make another Lost Tapes.  Hero is a good song though.  Also, the song ripping on Fox News is kind of stupid (just change the channel!).


July 16th, 2008 at 4:54 PM ^

Without evaluating just how bad a team needs to be to come in under 4.5, I will say I like the under on Penn. St. The non-conference schedule is complete puke, of course. Could Oregon State pull it out? If they get 8 wins you win! I just don't accept PSU as a 9 win team.


July 16th, 2008 at 5:36 PM ^

Oddly, I hear that although Marv's son ended up with a lot of personal problems (frankly, he got too big way too fast, and wasn't raised in a manner to help him deal with it very well, I don't think), many athletes swear by Marv as a trainer. I guess the guy has a very solid rep., at least if you're not his kid. I actually feel bad for someone like Todd Marinovich (heck, is that his right first name?). While I think institutions and coaches are much better now at providing guidance to young stars who want it, the system wasn't in place in the late '80s, and the kid ended up in over his head. It's not an excuse for his actions, but some chips ended up against him.


July 16th, 2008 at 5:40 PM ^

I would say the over bet on Northwestern is a very solid wager. I'd guess they get to 8 wins this year, but they'll definitely go at least 7-5.


July 16th, 2008 at 5:48 PM ^

had 22 pts and lead his team in scoring the last game of pool play vs. Taiwan. Since the first game where he was 1/8 from 3, LLP has picked things up and is 8/20 from 3, which doesn't include shooting stats from the last game vs Taiwan(shootong stats not yet available). He is averaging just under 12ppg in about 20 minutes of play. Just an FYI.


July 16th, 2008 at 6:05 PM ^

I know Illinois lost Rashard Mendenall (for Hei$man!), but don't they return most of the rest of their starters? They seem slightly underrated by Vegas. PSU otoh may be overrated. Rebuilding roster + mummified staff = potential problems.


July 16th, 2008 at 7:16 PM ^

Mendenhall was that entire offense, and without him around to spare Juice and his awful everything, it will get ugly.  Plus they lose All American(hero) J Leman.  Not good.

 PSU is actually pretty stout this year, with the entire offense(OL,WRs,RB, everything) back except Morelli - which is great news for them.  Losing Lee sucks though.


July 16th, 2008 at 9:45 PM ^

Oh, I thought PSU had lost more on offense than that. If it's just Morelli, then yeah, that's a net gain. Though I have no doubt that Joe, Jay and the rest will find a way to stifle them.

Jim Harbaugh S…

July 17th, 2008 at 12:02 AM ^

is awesome.

IMO, of course. I never buy CDS (I think the state of the music industry is horrible) - this was the first CD I've been looking forward to buying since TP-3, and I've been very impressed with it so far. Tracks 4 and 5 are instant classics. Call me crazy but the Fox background beat sounds like a Weezer song (hash pipe maybe?).

And yes another lost tapes would be a great idea.


I'm not sure how much of a slap in face it would be to weat UCLA gear in front of Lloyd and co - I'd take the old regime's word on a recruit over Dorrell's Staff any day. 

The Barking Sp…

July 17th, 2008 at 8:51 AM ^

I love 'em just like dex, or bgh, or whoever said that. But they remind me of a typical family. You got three kids, and two of them look like carbon copies of each other. "Yup, those two are definitely mine", the father will say when he's puring a glass of wine at his secretary's apartment during a late night "meeting". "But that third one", he'll continue, as the secretary dips his balls in the wine and lovingly licks it off, "He looks like that asshole that used to be on my bowling team"."You mena Xi Ling Dong, the guy from China?" "Yeah. Here two of the kids are 6'2, with blond hair and blue eyes, and then there's the middle one, who is 5'3 with jet black hair, and he's the only one who understands geometry! I mean, the thought of her cheating on me is terrible enough, but the possibility that one of the kids..." "Oh, XXXXncter, why don't you just forget about it? The kid will probably end up in prison at the rate he's going, and you won't have to worry about him. Besides, he'll be 19 very soon, and then you'll be able to divorce your wife and run away with me!"

Love the new edit feature Brian.

Tim Waymen

July 17th, 2008 at 11:43 AM ^

the Giants for beating and embarrassing my Patriots, and not Appalachian St. Success? I don't know. I was hoping for the Fresno St. Bulldogs to win it. Who cares?

The Barking Sp…

July 17th, 2008 at 12:41 PM ^

This morning, shortly after 4 a.m., Stanford football coach Jim Harbaugh was arrested for drunken driving, blowing a .87 in a breathalyzer. Upon his releaase, his only comment was "We had the greatest upset of the year! Fucking general studies! Fuck Michigan!"