Unverified Voracity Forgot About Siller Comment Count

Brian

These have nothing to do with anything. But you can get Revenge of the Nerds glasses in the MGoStore.

Oh shiiiii… So yesterday I noted that Purdue starting quarterback Robert Marve had been knocked out for the year with a torn ACL, and suggested that Michigan was less likely to lose that game now. I was terribly, terribly wrong:

Robert Marve is no longer an option at quarterback. I would argue that his effectiveness was unfortunately limited to poor line play against Notre Dame, then he was banged up from the Western Illinois game on. That leaves Rob Henry as the presumptive starter. He is not the only option, however. Justin Siller has three starts at quarterback in his career. Could he be a better choice?

Purdue: Robert Henry, Purdue, Robert "Rob" Henry. Purdue: he is awesome and made of ninja stars and if you think about starting anyone else I will find the World's Most Medium-Sized Drum and blast it into the Pacific Ocean with a river of tears and this will not go well for anyone and I'll probably get very dehydrated. Just say no to Siller.

If I have to make a Hitler video that starts off with the guy pointing at the map and saying "Marve transferred from Miami and was entrenched as a starter and tore his ACL" and then Hitler saying "fine, fine, Robert "Rob" Henry is a redshirt freshman with only decent mobility, we'll be fine" and then the guy saying "Mein Brimley, Purdue has installed Justin Siller as their quarterback" and then the ensuing and ceremonial Losing Of The Shit, I totally will. And I won't like it.

He is the sun and the moon and the stars. Tom Brady/Lloyd Christmas fan. He hugged Denard. He showed up for Colin Cowherd. He's aquaman2342's avatar. People made gentle fun of his hair and compared him to the aforementioned dudes. I got like six billion emails from someone who must be his mother complaining about the gentle poking of fun. But we like him, don't we? He is everywhere, and he's always really happy about Michigan. His haircut is charmingly reminiscent of the guy who's (still, for now) the best Michigan quarterback of our lives.

He is so everywhere that I'm just innocently watching this RAWK-laden official site video of Michigan's top kick returns ever and BAM, I'm saying there's a chance at 2:02:

Lloyd Brady has been happy everywhere. It is at this point that he is photoshopped into historical situations that he's really happy about, like an inverted Stunned Aggie.

More Lewan. Woo!

"During film, he was wearing sweatpants, a fedora and a sweatervest with no shirt on underneath," Van Bergen said at the press conference, rolling his eyes.

He's like an enormous Tressel who uses his power for mustaches and good. Q: there are Michigan players with twitter accounts. Why on earth did this not get a twitpic?

Financial what? So… whenever people talk about going to a nine game schedule they cite the financial considerations that make it difficult. Example:

"I know our fans want to see more Big Ten games," Delany told the Tribune. "Our TV partners want to see more Big Ten games. But if we can't finance our programs, it's not going to happen."

I'm not so convinced. Situations, assuming that PSL fees do not apply (reasonable since they don't change based on number of home games):

Home and home with real program. One game, 100k people, 50 bucks each = 5 million dollars.
Two games against tomato cans. Two games, 200k people, 50 bucks each = 10 million dollars – 1.5 million for payouts  = 8.5 million dollars.

That's 1.75 million per year, but it doesn't take into account the increased TV value of games against real teams, the increased attractiveness of season tickets when you have a real opponent in the nonconference (more relevant now that schools are charging close to what the market will bear and that seats are sometimes going unsold), and the various intangible wow factors that contribute to the bottom line. (In college, the bottom line is program prestige, wins, and losses, not money).

The problem has been that when Michigan schedules a killer nonconference game the money from TV goes to… the conference. Indiana makes just as much money from Michigan-ND as Michigan makes from Indiana-Towson. This severely reduces the incentive to schedule real opponents since you take all the risk of a loss and get zero gain relative to your conference-mates. But if you force the entire conference to add real games against each other and you own a network far more interested in televising Iowa-Wisconsin than four versions of Indiana-Towson, then the financial differences quickly tilt in favor of actual games. The bottom of the conference doesn't get to buy body-bag games, remember: IU just played at WKU.

I don't think financial considerations are going to be a major factor. It's close enough to a wash that a home/road imbalance and complaints from the IUs of the world about bowl eligibility will be more important.

Point Griese. Brian Griese was generic during the broadcast of the BGSU game but this is an interesting point that I've thought to myself but never though I'd hear an analyst drop:

“The ability to approach the line of scrimmage with the threat of running and (him) being able to throw those balls off-balance, that’s so hard on a defense,” Griese said. “Guys are wide open because of him.”

One of the many things that make Denard ridiculous is his ability to go from run to throw in no time flat. See the Roundtree touchdown against Notre Dame or the "Anything Tate Can Do I Can Do Better" improv in that same game. Accuracy from odd body angles makes his play action even more deadly than it would otherwise be.

Etc.: Some guy in the media says Michigan and BYU are talking about a home and home, which like okay. I'll take anything against a real program. Doubtful this ever comes to fruition, just because. "Staunch wave hater" and BG fan credits M with a "mad fun series," which is true. Michigan's wave is one of the hidden joys in sports. Michigan attendance has been more resilient than FSU's. Dreaded Judgment writes on the "why do I care about this?" question.

Comments

bronxblue

September 30th, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^

I am knocking on wood a bit, but UM has not lost to IU since 1987, even though there have obviously been some close games during the stretch.  So while we are all afraid about Saturday, this looks like one of those games where UM gives up 30 points but still wins by 10-14 because IU is horrible on defense.

TrppWlbrnID

September 30th, 2010 at 1:26 PM ^

big 10 tie in bowl payouts, per team

pizza bowl bt#8 - $750,000

dallas bowl bt#7 - $1,200,000

texas bowl bt#6 - $612,500

insight bowl bt#4 or 5 - $3,325,000

gator bowl bt#4 or 5 - $2,750,000

outback bowl bt#3 - $3,100,000

cap one bowl bt#2 - $4,250,000

rose bowl bt#1 - $17,000,000

bcs championship - $17,000,000

if you figure that at minimum the bigten gets a team in every game except the bcs championship, that is about $3million per team. 

not having a team make the pizza bowl means that each team gets $68,100 less, $177,200 if the last two bowls are not filled.  this does not include nebraska yet.

in going to a 9 game conference schedule, the big football schools are going to sell out the home games against the 9th team the same as they sold them out against bgsu, etc. the middling teams would most likely be able to sell out that 9th conference game and perhaps would not have to travel, so there would be a slight gain there, but they would more often than not lose that game and jeopardize every other team's potential at $68k.

the big difference would be in advertising during more quality games.

bronxblue

September 30th, 2010 at 4:33 PM ^

I totally agree about the money issue, but I wonder how much additional advertising will be sold for Purdue-Illinois or Northwestern-Iowa versus the pizza bowl.  I have no idea if it would be a significant difference, but my guess is that those numbers have been crunched and the results are not advantageous to a 9th game.

DesHow21

September 30th, 2010 at 12:19 PM ^

I think you need to find a balance between finding your unique writing style and being readable. Pop culture references are fine, having a unique style is fine,  but you've really murdered the language in the paragraph about Purdue. I've read it twice and can't understand what you are saying. 

 

RoxyMtnHiM

September 30th, 2010 at 1:31 PM ^

Griese is also doing color for the Denver Broncos radio broadcasts on KOA 850-AM, which, though he lives here, is semi-weird, given how he was villified for not being John Elway and subsequently run out of town (figuratively). I've thought he's been really good. Insightful on both sides of the ball.

JMK

September 30th, 2010 at 2:27 PM ^

I thought Griese was pretty good (even before I realized it was Griese).  Even if he was only "generic," that's a huge step up from the typical color commentator these days.  He did, however, have an annoying tendency to describe everything as a "staple" of a team's offense/defense.  But that's a nit; overall, I think he added to the game and, at worst, did not detract from it like many others.

cjm

September 30th, 2010 at 1:41 PM ^

Ive tried to explain to these people down here in Texas the greatness of e Michigan wave. It's really hard to do, you must experience it and then joy that comes when the crisscross successfully navigates the far corner.

M-Dog

October 1st, 2010 at 4:20 AM ^

Love it or hate it, Michigan does the best wave in the country.

The Wave started at Michigan in 1983.  The cheerleaders brought it back from a road game at Washington.  They announced the intent to do it at for the first time at Michigan stadium during a pep rally the nignt before the Big 10 opener.  They called it "Maize in Motion".

Despite the best efforts of the cheerleaders, it took forever to get the first successful wave going.  It kept fizzling out in the old alumni section. 

When it finally took off, the crowd went bezerk.  It was so loud that our own team could not hear the playcall and had to take a time out (imagine that).  Bo was furious.  He slammed down his headset and stormed out to the middle of the field waving his hands for the crowd to be quiet.

Smartasses that we were, we responded with a quiet wave, with everyone whispering shhhhhhhhhh! as the wave went around the stadium.  It didn't take too long for everyone to get the hang of it, and it morphed into fast waves, slow waves, backwards waves, and concentric waves.

After the game, Bo announced to the press that if the crowd could not behave itself, he would have the stadium cleared out and the game played in front of empty bleachers.  Typicall Bo.

 

Section 1

September 30th, 2010 at 2:10 PM ^

Can't argue with your math, Brian, on the dollars.  But you left out one equation.

3 tomato cans + .500 record in-Conference = Barely gets middling Big Ten teams to a bowl.

For some of our conference brethren, it is all about getting to 6 or 7 wins and giving the shivering alumni a bowl to go to in December.

cutter

September 30th, 2010 at 2:21 PM ^

Big Ten Conference distributions (which include television contract money along with bowl revenues and NCAA basketball tournament funds) are providing a greater percentage of Michigan's Athletic Department with the advent of the Big Ten Network and the new ABC/ESPN  contract which was signed in 2006.

If you go back to the UM AD's past budgets, you'll notice in FY 2004 that conference distributions were $10.7M, spectator admissions were $33.6M and total revenues were $67.9M.  The conference distributions were just 31.3% of total spectator admissions and provided 15.8% of the total revenue to the athletic department.  Spectator admissions provided 49.4% of the athletic department's revenue in FY 2004

For the FY 2011 projections, conference distributions are budgeted at $20.2M, spectator admission are at $38.2M and total revenues were at $105.0M.  Confernce distributions are now at 52.9% of spectator admissions and projected to provide 19.2% of the total revenue to the athletic department.  (Note:  Actual conference distributions were $22.2M, but FY 2011 shows a distribution to the university of nearly $2M from those distributions.  If you use the larger figure, than the percentages are 58.1% and 21.7% respectively).  Spectator admissions provided 36.7% of the projected athletic department's revenue in FY 2011. 

What this goes to show is that conference distributions (most of which comes from television revenue) is becoming a larger factor in terms of revenue at Michigan relative to spectator admissions.  For programs with smaller stadiums in the Big Ten, that impact becomes even greater.  The other two major soures of revenue for the Michigan Athletic Department in FY 2011 are Proceeds from Priority Seating and other annual gifts ( $20.9M or 21.0%) and Corporate Sponsorships ($14.0M or 13.4%).

When you look at these numbers, you can see that in terms of revenue, conference distributions are gaining in importance relative to spectator admissions.  That's one of the reasons why nine-game conference schedules are becoming more attractive to athletic directors--the revenue from the television packages is growing at a greater rate than from ticket sales.  The better inventory of games for television, the better the money from the networks.  Keep in mind that the Big Ten is currently renegotiating its contract with ABC/ESPN with the addition of Nebraska--I'm  sure the conference office and the athletic directors are mindful of how those numbers will look like in that new contract with nine versus eight conference games (the same also goes for the Big Ten Network when it comes to its profitability, advertising rates, and payments to the conference).  If conference distributions go up to $27M or so in FY 2012 (when the ABC/ESPN contract is redone and the bid for the conference championship game has been awarded), then the impact of television on the overall athletic department budgets will be felt even more.

I agree with Brian that the coaching staffs may not like a nine-game conference schedule because it makes their jobs more difficult.  In 2011, Illinois has non-conference games with Arkansas State, South Dakota State (FBS), Arizona State and Western Michigan and doesn't play Iowa, Nebraska and Michigan State in the Big Ten.  Even if the Illini were to drop the game with Arizona State to make  a hypothetical nine-game conference schedule in 2011, they may pick up IA, UN-L or MSU in return--not the best possible trade-off in the world when programs may schedule to pick up four non-conference wins on a regular basis.

 

 

 

mgoglick

September 30th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^

Anyone notice that ESPN couldn't get the names of their commentators right against BGSU?  Whenever they showed the names of the commentators, it was "Bob Griese."  I know its his first game covering UM but come on, get your employee's names right.  Maybe they were too busy getting "OMG DENARD DESTROYED HIZ NEEZOR!!!11!1" in the Lead part of their ticker to notice.

TheOracle6

September 30th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^

In that 2008 contest Siller threw for well over 300 yards and tore us up on the ground.  Please god keep Siller away from QB when we play him for obvious reasons.  Thank you.

TheOracle6

September 30th, 2010 at 3:44 PM ^

So a WR that turns qb lights us up for 3td's in the air and another on the ground and he's not "that" good?  Gimme a break.  The kid killed us that day and we had no answer for it.  I'm more at ease this year playing them because the overall feel is that they suck but if Siller is in the backfield he's going to tear our secondary apart which is definitely worse then it was in 2008.  Prepare for another shootout.  The last 2 games against them have been so until proven otherwise it's going to be a barn burner.

Blue Bunny Friday

September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 PM ^

He came in as a QB. If he were to go back to QB (after not playing the position at all for over a year), then I wouldn't expect him to be greatly improved.

Your orginal quote that I called into question:

In that 2008 contest Siller threw for well over 300 yards and tore us up on the ground.

What you described there was Denard-like and I was saying that he's not Denard-like. Outside of Minor that day, the UM offense had nothing.

Anyway, Purdue has been awful on offense this year. They also lost their #1 WR and #1 RB. So, no, I won't prepare for another shootout. As of right now, I would say your concern is almost completely unwarranted. I'm pretty sure that the part of Brian's post that expresses this same concern has more to do with Juice Williams (and making a funny) than about Siller.

The Harbaughnger

September 30th, 2010 at 3:38 PM ^

I've read a few times that there are users here who think they really may have seen this guy or will see him in front of them at the next home game.

Is there anyone who is even remotely close to legitimately identifying him?

I'm giddy with the possibility that we might actually find the real Lloyd Brady!

I hope his sense of humor is as great as his happiness!

(Does anyone with MGoBoard veteran status feel that he deserves his own thread?  "The Hunt For Lloyd Brady" or something like that.  I don't want to cause an MGoMeltdown if he doesn't...)

jabberwock

September 30th, 2010 at 4:15 PM ^

(Does anyone with MGoBoard veteran status feel that he deserves his own thread?  "The Hunt For Lloyd Brady" or something like that.  I don't want to cause an MGoMeltdown if he doesn't...)

We need a Google Maps blow up of Ann Arbor, with real-time updates for Lloyd Brady/Tom Christmas sightings.

"4:03 pm, subject  may have been sighted 200 yards south of Quickie Burger"

"put a pin on it!"

MGoBlog, where stalking becomes a cottage industry.