Unverified Voracity Fires Traditional Money Cannon Comment Count

Brian

Sponsor note. Police horses assembled on South U were the only people happy with the result of the Villanova game. And those riding them, I guess. Police-horse related business probably took a hit.

hoeglaw_thumb[1]

If you have one of those and have a contract you now regret, you probably should have hired Hoeg Law to execute it. Now you're stuck, and probably going bankrupt. Hopefully you shielded your personal assets, which Hoeg Law could have helped you with. But there's always next time. Maybe you could start a company that persuades advertisers to drop their weird months-long police horse saga in favor of something else. You should call Hoeg Law, then: he can be your lawyer and your client.

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Amara Darboh becomes a citizen

Charity Bowl time. The original money cannon target returns:

HOW LONG IS THIS GOING? Through the week and into the weekend. We’ll give daily updates about how big a lead Michigan has.

ARE YOU GOING TO GET A TATTOO AGAIN? No, but as always, if we reach, say, $40,000 in total donations, Ours Truly here will do something dramatic in honor of the winning school. Don’t doubt us on this point. We have a tattoo of a Michigan block M with the character Totoro over it as proof of our seriousness here.

Also we sometimes have famous people from your school call you to thank you personally. Heisman Trophy winners, actually. No big deal, just a little thank you from us to you for being a great American.

Since, uh, the great victories of yesteryear were less great than anticipated, this year's donation is in honor of Darboh and Jehu Chesson.

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For the more rivalry inclined there are various basketball scores available. Please don't use the score of the Syracuse-Michigan State game, though. We're trying to raise money here, people.

The big lawsuit. Amateurism may end by brute force in the near future, as the other big NCAA antitrust lawsuit comes in front of the same judge that ruled against the NCAA in O'Bannon:

n a 36-page opinion, Wilken did not give either side total victory. However, she rejected several of the NCAA’s critical contentions and set the stage for the plaintiffs to seek a new system that would apply to Division I men’s and women’s basketball players and to football players at Football Bowl Subdivision schools.

The plaintiffs have proposed that limits on athletes’ compensation be set on a conference-by-conference basis, a change that could open the door to athletes being able to capitalize on their names, images and likeness if a conference's schools chose to go that way.

The plaintiffs also have suggested that athletes be allowed to receive all manner of benefits above the cost of attendance that are related to education and/or are incidental to their participation in their sports.

“We’d call this ruling a home run,” said Steve Berman, one of the lead plaintiffs’ attorneys. “We couldn’t have plotted it out better for us, frankly. … I absolutely think we are going to win this trial.”

Kevin Trahan goes a little more in depth in a post on Above The Law:

Here lies the NCAA’s problem: Its two most persuasive justifications — and explanations for why no less-restrictive alternatives would work — are premised on the fact that fans wouldn’t watch and athletes wouldn’t be students if they weren’t paid. But the more the FBI shows that athletes were getting paid, while athletic departments continued to rake in money and those players still showed up for class, the more the NCAA will struggle to argue that such strict rules are necessary to preserve college sports.

Before the FBI investigation, and during the O’Bannon trial, the plaintiffs relied on showing that athletes weren’t primarily students in a lot of cases. The academic scandal at the University of North Carolina, in which athletes were getting degrees for taking fake classes and weren’t allowed to pursue their desired coursework, was an instructive example. The plaintiffs will certainly bring up that point again — especially after the NCAA arguably failed to substantially punish UNC for its widespread academic fraud — but in O’Bannon, Wilken clearly saw the potential for payments to hurt the academic experience of athletes. Specifically, she worried that if athletes made too much money, they “might also be inclined to separate themselves from the broader campus community by living and socializing off campus.”

Not only can the plaintiffs now show that schools themselves separate athletes from the rest of campus, they can also show that the system didn’t come crumbling down when players did get paid. For instance, Marvin Bagley, whose family went from bankruptcy to a pristine house due to allegedly “illicit” payments, made the Atlantic Coast Conference’s All-Academic team while starring at Duke.

The NCAA is trying to prove a bunch of things that aren't true and have lots of evidence suggesting they aren't true, in front of a judge that's already ruled against them in a near identical case. The only difference is that this case is asking for the moon instead of crumbs.

Pendulum swings back ever so slightly. Basketball has rejected two point jumpers wholesale over the past ten years.

twos_vs_threes

We may be reaching the maximum extent of that trend. Spurred on by Trey Burke's sudden NBA emergence and all those clanged free throw line jumpers the 2-3 zones of the NCAA tournament induced, I've been wondering when a midrange jumper is actually good. The answer in the NBA appears to be "when it's the only open shot you can get":

The NBA Stats API provides some aggregate data on shooting performance based on both the distance of the shot, and the distance of the closest defender at the time of the shot, which shows that yes, usually a 3-point attempt has a higher expected value than a long-range 2. But if the 3-pointer is tightly guarded and the long-range 2 is wide-open, then the 2-pointer can be better. For example, a wide-open 2-point shot from 20 feet on average results in 0.84 points, while a tightly-guarded 3-point attempt from 25 feet only averages 0.71 points.

Neither of those numbers is good, obviously. Michigan's crushing tourney D was holding teams to around 0.84 PPP in their best possessions. But if the clock's running out and someone's closing out, that long two after a dribble is… eh… fine.

Speaking of Trey. His re-emergence into an NBA player is one of the more remarkable stories of the year:

Burke in New York has the statistical profile of a star. He's shooting well from everywhere: 39 percent from deep, Nowitzkian levels from midrange on colossal volume, and even 73 percent at the rim -- once a no-fly zone for an undersized guy with average athleticism.

Burke isn't just hunting points. He has assisted on almost 40 percent of New York's baskets while on the floor, a borderline top-five number. He has developed a nice pick-and-roll chemistry with Michael Beasley, captain of last year's Waltons; New York has scored 1.28 points per possession on any trip featuring a Burke-Beasley pick-and-roll, the fourth-best (!) mark among almost 300 duos that have run at least 150 such plays, per Second Spectrum.

Only six players over the past two seasons have commandeered such a large share of possessions with shots and assists: LeBron, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, James Harden, Dennis Schroder, and D'Angelo Russell.

He's probably going to come back to earth somewhat, but he's still gone from the G League to a guy who's going to get paid.

A denominator! The Detroit News provides a percentage for a basketball recruit:

David DeJulius, 6-0, Sr., G, Detroit East English

DeJulius had the ability to step up and carry his team to victories. He scored 17 fourth-quarter points to rally East English from an 18-point halftime deficit in an 80-71 victory over two-time Class A state champion Clarkston, then scored 49 two weeks later in a win over Illinois state champion Chicago Orr, making nine 3-pointers. He averaged 26 points, eight assists and seven rebounds, shooting 42 percent from 3-point range. “He was always trying to get better, always listened and was very coachable,” Coach Juan Rickman said. “He could score the ball, his ball-handling got better and he was able to read defenses, leading him to take the ball to the basket, find an open teammate or make the 3-pointer.” DeJulius, a Mr. Basketball finalist, will play at Michigan.

42% on huge usage pull-up threes is pretty pretty good. He should be pretty plug and play as a backup PG. Enough of that will translate even against better defenses.

Girard profiled. Joe Girard III is the all-time New York HS scoring leader with a year left in his career, and a major 2019 target for John Beilein. He likes basketball:

Wiping sweat from his eyes, Girard starts one of Dagostino’s finishing drills. Instructed to take two “slide dribbles” on the right wing before finishing at the rim with his left hand, Girard starts with three straight misses.

On the fourth miss, which he air balls, Girard slaps the baseline wall in frustration.

Dagostino gathers Girard’s miss, lays the ball up and in the bucket before passing it back to Girard and says, “try throwing (the ball) in.”

“My biggest thing was always if you could see the ball go through the hoop,” Dagostino said, “no matter if you make it or your teammate makes it, then you are going to have a better chance of finding your rhythm by seeing it go in.”

Girard adjusts by “throwing” the ball in an overhand motion rather than the scooping technique prior. Dagostino’s suggestion results in five straight makes and Girard ends the drill with a round of free throws, a staple of any Dagostino circuit.

Sounds like he'll be off the board in the near future:

“I am getting kind of closer to a decision,” Girard said on Thursday. “I am getting older and time is becoming less and less. So it is about things getting more serious that (my dad and I) talk about, and what I need to do in order to play at the next (college) I will be attending.”

Girard's dad played for Beilein, but Duke looms. As of a week ago the Duke 247 site was very confident.

Etc.: Northwestern picks up Evansville transfer Ryan Taylor, who took 41% Evansville shots(!) last year. Midfielder Marc Ybarra will play for AFC Ann Arbor this summer. The Hughes family is good at doing hockey. Beilein after the loss. "All or Nothing" reviewed. Morris and Genuinely Sarcastic bid this basketball team goodbye. Arizona State saying the quiet parts loud.

Comments

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

April 9th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

It's interesting that there was a time when both threes and mid-range twos were rising, which means that layups were falling.  The Dikembe Mutombo / Ben Wallace effect?  A rise of shotblockers that patrolled the middle and discouraged teams from attacking the rim? 

Likewise, the mid-range two slope is less negative than the rise in the threes slope - which means layups are also rising slightly, perhaps the Antetokounmpo effect in which bigs are now asked to roam farther from the rim on both offense and defense, thus opening up the lane a little more.

bronxblue

April 9th, 2018 at 2:32 PM ^

I also wonder if a part of that was the slow, lingering demise of the Wade-esc "run into traffic and look for a foul" iso offense that was still hanging around in the mid 00s. The whole pace and space concept only really took hold in the NBA with the Spurs importing guys like Ginobli, so it's relatively recent.

dragonchild

April 10th, 2018 at 6:55 AM ^

Kids who grew up watching Jordan are in their late 30s to 40s now, including any players inspired by him.  In terms of playing style, the 90s are dead.  Back then, most 3-point shooters were considered JASes.  There were exceptions, of course, but it was a specialty, if even erroneously, but I'm talking about kids' perceptions here.  It was sort of a myth that the time required to master 3-range meant practice time away from other things, like post moves.  Centers, forwards, and even some guards (namely, Jordan) weren't expected to master the 3-pointer.  Guys like Sam Perkins were outliers.

At some point, coaching improved such that 3-point range is now developing into an expectation for 1-3, a lot of 4s and even some 5s.  That is a crazy evolution.  Bear in mind that the 3-pointer was the one thing Michael Jordan couldn't do consistently, to the point that the NBA tried to help him out.  He'd still be an effective scorer if you time-warped him from the late 90s into today, but he'd be considered a very weird player.

Burke developed into a throwback, but even stranger because he DOES have 3-point range, but he may be on to something.  The 90s have been dead for so long that they're not defending his jumpers very well, at least for now.  Today's defenses consider the 2-point jumper to be a win, so if he can keep punishing them for making that assumption, he's got a career.

Michigan4Life

April 9th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^

has an offer from Michigan but it's apparently a non-commitable offer. Not sure if it's true but interesting nonethless. Michigan has zero spot open for 2019 class anyway but JB is recruiting like he has one. Pretty much all of them are elite type of recruit. It's going to be interesting to see which one he'll prioritize going forward

1VaBlue1

April 9th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^

It's probably not comittable pending completion of Beilein's recruiting rules.  If Girard wants to go blue, I wonder if Beilein would move someone off the team?  That would be an interesting thing to follow...  But I doubt it comes to pass, unless the FBI is getting to people enough to lower the payment plans (and it becomes non-efficient for him to think about Duke).

HoegLaw

April 9th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^

For the record, I *had* prepared a tweet regarding the need for legal aid in the event of a horse punching after the championship game, but sadly did not wind up with cause to send it out.  Well, there's always next year. -Rick

HoegLaw

April 9th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^

Absolutely, it's great to hear from a fellow charger!  Hillsdale College undergrad/Michigan Law postgrad.  What can I say? I love my home state and the color blue. :)

As for the summa, let's go with "judicious class selection" (I also just really love economics, in addition to business and law).  

-Rick

HailObeans

April 9th, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^

You’ve spent so much time on MGoBlog that you’ve been lulled into a stupor where common sentences make you laugh. It’s one of the unfortunate side effects of this delightful site.... similar to the delightful scent of pipe tobacco still ends in cancer.



You have advanced stage MGoBlogitis. I hope you have long term care insurance, my friend

robpollard

April 9th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

Heck of a quote from a 17-year old. 



In his spare time, he must gaze out the window at the gray skies of Upstate NY, listening to The Smiths albums.