Unverified Voracity Enters The Cone Of Solitude

Submitted by Brian on June 27th, 2018 at 4:02 PM

[Bryan Fuller]

Carton on campus. In addition to the wave of football commits, Michigan's top remaining basketball target is also in the house:

Carton's previously said he intends to take trips to all of his six finalists before deciding in late summer, so this is not a commit watch situation. Still, given his stated decision criteria...

“The most significant factors in the choice are just… getting me to my future,” he said. “Who can develop me the most (to) become NBA ready, winning, and just the relationships. I want a team that I can call my brothers and stuff like that… that I can go back in like 60 years from now and still know those guys and still talk to them. So, I want my team to feel family-like, and get me to my dream.”

...and Michigan's unmatched ability to put recruits ranked significantly lower than Carton into the NBA, Beilein and company have to feel pretty good here. Also of note: Carton credits Yaklich for initiating his relationship with him while he was at Illinois State; Yaklich is also Jalen Wilson's primary recruiter. Pay that man his money.

ESPN has scouts that avoided the axe. At least in basketball. ESPN's released a new 2019 top 100 featuring Carton at #28; their accompanying article mentions him and a couple other targets. Carton is one of the "fastest risers":

Carton didn't make the final cut of USA Basketball U-18 national team, but he nonetheless opened eyes over the first four days of trials. That, followed by a solid showing at the NBPA Top 100 Camp, helped him go from unranked to top 30.

The southpaw lead guard plays at multiple speeds and navigates well in ball screens by creating separation between defenders. He is a high assist maker both in the open floor with the advance pass or in tight spaces as he reads the defense.

Potential 2020 one-and-done RJ Hampton, Jalen Wilson's best bro, is super super highly touted:

R.J. Hampton, No. 3 in 2020
PG, 6-4, 180, Little Elm (Texas)

Hampton is a big point guard with speed and scoring ability. He is more comfortable putting points on the board at this stage in his development, but he continues to show the vision and the ability to read the game.

The NBA covets big point guards and Hampton checks a ton of boxes. Strength and a consistent jump shot are what he needs most.

Camp Sanderson and John Beilein SEEM LIKE A GOOD IDEA SIR. FWIW, Michigan is in on #3 Cole Anthony (sort of) and #4 Jaden McDaniels, though those guys are in a stratosphere Michigan's recruiting rarely touches. Jalen Wilson is #68.

Also I have just discovered that Fran McCaffrey's kid Patrick is #50. Naturally, he is a 6'9" guy.

[After THE JUMP: American ninja Avant.]

Too much weight. Here's Jason Avant trying his hand at American Ninja Warrior. He does all right:

But he is an NFL player, not a ninja.

Pretty much. Silver Screen & Roll, the SBN Lakers blog, breaks down Moe Wagner:

I have no nits to pick in that video. It is sort of surreal that one of the few aspects of Wagner's defense that gets praised is his incessant boxing out. Turned over a new leaf, he did.

Also in Wagner, this is a beautiful shot chart:

That's going to take some heavy lifting to replace.

IN LESS GOOD MOE NEWS. He's taking Germany's exit from the World Cup like you or I would:

Moe, I respect you and appreciate your contributions to Michigan's basketball program and would also like to tell you that in a VAR world Torsten Frings would be ejected into space and the US wins 85-1 in 2002. Now I will resume weeping in the corner.

The next draft. SI has early rankings for the 2019 NBA draft and a couple of Wolverines feature. Charles Matthews is obvious...

Though he’s very much on the NBA radar following Michigan’s run to the title game, Matthews made a wise decision to remain at Michigan for another season and is in the early mix for next year’s draft. It’s not a sure thing, but his fluid athleticism and strong, wiry frame are promising on the wing, and he’s shown some ability to handle in the pick-and-roll. Becoming a more consistent shooter and all-around player will be paramount next season, and there will be plenty of opportunity to go around in the Wolverines’ rotation.

...but even though every Michigan fan expects a breakout campaign from Jordan Poole I'm still surprised that he's gathered enough attention to feature on lists like this already:

Poole earned some national notoriety after his game-winner against Houston in the NCAA tournament, and had already caught the eyes of NBA teams despite functioning in a minor role for Michigan most of the season, logging just 28.9% of available minutes. He’ll have an opportunity to score a lot more and show off his athletic tools this season. Poole has some combo-guard skills, a potent three-point shot and the body control to make tough shots off the bounce—next year will be about displaying his entire skill set, and it could pay off in the draft conversation if all goes well.

Says somethin' about something' when people just expect another Michigan breakout player to catch the NBA's eye.

Worst Michigan hockey summer in a while? Quinn Hughes went 7th overall to Vancouver in the NHL draft and is at best on the fence about a return to Ann Arbor:

Despite natural questions about the 18-year-old’s strength and defensive capability, Quinn thinks he can play in the NHL next season.

"I don’t want to be naive or anything, but I think I’m ready right now," he said. "I know it’s a hard league. I feel very confident, feel like I can help the Vancouver Canucks.

"It’s funny because everyone says, defensively, I’m not the best. But that was what my dad stressed the most. That was the most important thing to him. My plus/minus was the highest on the team at Michigan and I was only on the ice for one goal against (for Team USA) at the world championships and it was against South Korea. And we won 13-1. I feel very confident defensively."

This also doesn't sound great:

It goes without saying that losing Hughes on top of Wilde would be a potentially crippling blow.

Etc.: Bill Connelly is previewing the Big Ten. Debatably relevant teams include Maryland and Rutgers. AFC gets a stoppage time winner to move on to the Milk Cup final. The Detroit News also profiles the team's two Kenyans, though Okumu hasn't been on the field of late, possibly because he's done enough to earn a contract.

Comments

Alumnus93

June 27th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^

Had Beilien went to the Pisyons, I'd have been okay with it if Yaklich got the job. Recruiting seems to have made a large uptick . And let me say, making amends with Webber and getting him into the M world again, would go a long way in scoring the top guys mentioned. Michigan basketball is a sleeping giant and Webber would make the difference with recruits. Seems trivial, but it isn't. And what a shame, how we weren't able to hold the line with recruits after the fiasco but it's still possible to get back there . 

bronxblue

June 27th, 2018 at 10:38 PM ^

I have a hard time believing HS kids remember much about Chris Webber.  He retired a decade ago and wasn't an All Star in 15 years.  I remember him pretty well, but I'm also a boring-ass father of two kids rapidly approach 40.  So I'm not sure he moves the needle much with the kids and their dank memes.

A2Photonut

June 27th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^

I saw John Belein driving that tricked out yellow super golf cart they have down State street today, had a bunch of people in it, assuming that was Carton and Family. Belein was pointing stuff out to the group, I was like " " Hey, that's John Belein."

DonBrownSoda

June 27th, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^

Big downvote for the World Cup spoiler. Most of us are working during the day and many DVR the games. I was looking forward to watching the Germany game with my son on delay but not now. I understand it’s a sports blog so it’s my fault but I was totally not expecting it in today’s UV.

lhglrkwg

June 27th, 2018 at 8:15 PM ^

This Michigan Hockey Summer is brutal. I'm going from thinking we're gonna be awesome with all the great commits we have, to wondering how much of a step back we take this year

Don

June 27th, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^

"It goes without saying that losing Hughes on top of Wilde would be a potentially crippling blow."

I've been watching the best players leave Michigan before their junior year—or earlier—for two decades now.

I wouldn't expect anything else.

bronxblue

June 27th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^

That Wagner chart makes me sad.  Excited for him, but that's a hyper-efficient offensive player they're going to have to replace.

As for hockey, no good Michigan season goes unpunished.  By Mel seems to have a plan and I have faith he'll get Michigan through this season with a solid finish, even if I think we should all downgrade expectations to "make the tournament" from "make the Frozen Four."

dragonchild

June 28th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^

Michigan's unmatched ability to put recruits ranked significantly lower than Carton into the NBA, Beilein and company have to feel pretty good here.

I hope all goes well but this is not going to matter.  It never matters.  I have absolutely no idea why it doesn't matter, other than maybe the top 20 recruits have egos to match and (to be fair they ain't crazy for thinking this) don't need the help; they see themselves as one-and-dones anyway.  But if you don't have scouts stalking you already, yeah, you should take some time to meet Beilein because of his record on improving draft stock.  But for whatever reason, "I can help you become a first round draft pick" just isn't on anyone's minds.  It's bizarre but it happens too often for me to pretend otherwise at this point.

4roses

June 28th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^

I too have been perplexed by this fact and I think your assessment that it is ego driven is dead-on. I raised this as a question a couple weeks back in a recruiting thread to Matt D, as he is much more "in the know" than all of us. He said that the pace that Michigan plays at is a major factor. Even though Beilein's reliance on 3s over 2s is very NBAesque, NBA teams do play faster, so one-and-done kids want to play in a faster paced offense to showcase their NBA skills. While I don't doubt that this is the thinking for the high-end recruits, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Sure Michigan doesn't play at an NBA pace, but they aren't that much different than the teams that get the one-and-dones. Here is a look at last year's Adjusted Tempo on Kenpom:   

  • North Carolina: 71.2
  • Duke: 69.7
  • Kentucky: 68.8
  • Kansas: 68.8
  • Michigan: 64.9   

You could probably argue that even though the raw pace #s aren't that different, Michigan does prefer half court sets over running. Fine. But even if this is the case, you are prioritizing style of play over improving your basketball and physical skills. Essentially what recruits are saying is, "I don't need to get better, I just need to go somewhere where my already-fine skills are showcased."   

Don

June 28th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^

"Essentially what recruits are saying is, "I don't need to get better, I just need to go somewhere where my already-fine skills are showcased."   

In other words, what Red and now Mel have had to deal with in recruiting elite talent for the past 20 years 

schreibee

June 28th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

Your last sentence summed up the "Why don't one & dones come to Michigan" question pretty well, better than all the stats you threw out there. 

It's been my point ever since '13 when ppl ranted about no uptick in crootin despite consecutive E8s.

Trey is the only player I can think of ever got significant run as a true frosh under Coach B. McGary & Stauskas in the tournament, but not that much before.

It's not a program screaming out to one & dones "this is made for you"

And I personally am JUST FINE with that! 

Don

June 28th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

"the top 20 recruits have egos to match and... don't need the help; they see themselves as one-and-dones anyway."

The large majority of these elite top-20 kids don't have an interest in college beyond playing ball. They're not there to get an education—college is little more than a trade school.

They know that Beilein won't allow them to skate on fulfilling their academic responsibilities, and they'll opt for a guy like Calipari or Pitino or Boeheim or Huggins who will let them carry out the charade of being students.

dragonchild

June 28th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^

We agree there but I'm calling out the top 20 or so as the exception.  If you're the ninth-best HS player in the country, college is just a waiting room before you become an overnight millionaire.  I think there are problems with this but I can't say they're crazy.

Where it makes no gorram sense is if you're like #38 or whatever, not sure where the threshold is but at some point the drop-off is significant enough that you're still top-tier college talent but barely on the NBA's radar.  These are the kids that really could use some seasoning, but Beilein's hit rate on this bunch is far below what I'd expect for a coach with his resume.  Sure, some of them are egomaniacs who think of themselves as the one-and-dones they aren't.  Some just don't qualify academically.  Some probably really need the money they're being offered under the table.  Scheme?  Beilein practically pioneered the 3-and-D.  Personality?  His reputation is impeccable.  I could just be in denial of reality, but as long as this is the Internet I'm gonna vent and say something feels off.

schreibee

June 28th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

Let's say the top 15 HS hoops players have a pretty reasonable expectation they'll be 1st rounders in the next draft (even the lottery, if that still means anything?) They don't need Beilein, and they may not care anything about the college experience. McGary is the only player from this group to commit to Beilein.

So let's take the next group #16-30 - they're probably convinced they'll go in the 1st round as well, whether history bears it out or not. But this group has ppl in their ears about who's gonna showcase them best Year One. History shows that's not Beilein's system. I don't follow the player rankings enough to know who we've gotten from this group. Anyone? Chatman maybe? 

Now we come to the group that should ALL want to play for Beilein - the 30th to 60th ranked players. Even a cursory grasp of reality says they're not getting drafted in round 1 after one year. This group is not that well represented among Beilein croots either, and that's where Dragon's list of explanations comes in. Money, academics, other? Ego prob still huge factor here as well, when it shouldn't be! Getting more of the 30-60 group would be ENORMOUS for M. 3 Final Fours in 6 years already. This group would translate to NCs!

Multiple NCs!!!