Unverified Voracity Defeats A Virus Comment Count

Brian September 30th, 2011 at 4:27 PM

What was up with Roh. Mike Rothstein has more details on Craig Roh's fall camp malady:

Before Michigan's fall camp started, Craig Roh went back to Arizona and spent time with his family. His brothers had mononucleosis over the summer, but Craig returned to Michigan feeling fine.

Three days into camp that changed. He was tired. By the end of the day, he ended up in bed with the chills.

Was it possible? Could he have contracted it, too?

He didn't know. What he did know, his father, Fred, said, is he was in bed and uncomfortably sick. The next day, Craig woke up with fever of 102 degrees. He went to the doctor searching for answers, and received antibiotics. Doctors had diagnosed him not with mono but a respiratory infection.

He skipped one day of practice and began to feel a little better. Cleared by doctors, even though his energy level wasn't at 100 percent, Roh returned to practice of his own volition. The sickness, though, had done its damage.

Coaches started dogging him, Roh got down on himself when he didn't play that well the first couple games, but he had his epiphany and now he's picked it back up. Hopefully we see him hit the level of performance everyone was projecting before the season.

Hatchdate. Austin Hatch is a few days away from returning home:

Per Caterbury HS head coach (and close friend) Dan Kline… Michigan recruit Austin Hatch will come home Oct. 9. Kline said rehab went amazing.

FCOA costs. The Bylaw Blog breaks down the full cost for full cost of attendance scholarships:

Q: How much would it cost?

Because the proposal covers all sports, cost depends on how many sports an institution sponsors. Stanford’s associate AD of business strategy and revenue enhancement estimated it would cost the school $750,000. Stanford runs the largest athletic department in the country, so that number might be considered to be something of a maximum.

To figure out a rough estimate of cost, we need to figure out the average athletic department. The NCAA’s membership report has the average number of men’s and women’s sports sponsored by FBS, FCS, and non-football institutions. The NCAA’s sport sponsorship and participation report lists which sports are sponsored by the most institutions. So combining the two, we can figure out an “average” athletic department and estimate the costs based on scholarship limits. And those costs are:

  • FBS: $504,400
  • FCS: $436,400
  • Non-Football: $282,400

Obvious in those figures is the effect of football. An FBS football team can expect an increased scholarship bill of up to $170,000 while an FCS program should set aside $126,000. The range for athletic departments that fully fund all their teams would probably be somewhere between $200,000 and $750,000.

Good by me; any schools sponsoring sports can hack a small amount out of administrative and coaching salaries to cover that. And if you can't, the rule is conference-based. Not everyone will have to adopt it. Those that do will have to do it for all athletes.

This won't have much of an impact for Michigan's bottom line or recruiting prospects in major sports since everyone they're recruiting against will immediately adopt the FCOA proposal. It will help a bit in hockey, especially if schools in the NCHC can't make that decision without making it for their entire athletic department. Is the MAC going FCOA? What about whatever conferences North Dakota and UMD are in?

BONUS: The Bylaw Blog shares my skepticism that the four-year scholarship proposal is anything more than window dressing unless the same restrictions on revoking scholarships mid-year are applied for the period.

Break even? I what aah? The Mathlete's numbers on the Hoke fourth and two:

Brian is in love with it, but how much was it worth? Punt from 48 gets to the 17. Team down 14 with the ball around the 17 with 2-3 minutes left in the first half win about 8.0% of the time. A successful conversion gives Michigan a 93.2% chance of victory where a failed attempt drops your chances to 88.2%. To break even, Michigan would need to have a confidence that they had about a 75% chance of conversion. National average on 3rd and 2 is about 58.5%. Michigan has been a top 25 level 3rd and short team so the decision was probably about a break even if you account for Michigan’s offense.

This case is a bit closer than I expected, but if you believe our offense was bound to score, which it obviously did, a 21 point half time lead is good for a 97.1% chance of victory. Even if Michigan can get a field goal and run out the clock, an average conversion rate makes the decision break even

If this seems like a weird result given the other Mathlete chart…


…it is an effect of being up 14-0. If the score was tied the win percentage effect would be a landslide in favor of going for it. If you're measuring by projected margin in the final score it's a large +EV decision, but if all you care about is having one more point than the other team it's about break-even for average teams going up against each other. At the time it seemed like the defense could fall apart at any time, which still swings the decision to an easy go-for-it to me.

You need to get another MBA. Angelique Chengelis put up a story on In The Big House, which everyone hates, that included this quote from our new Chief Marketing Officer:

"It's gaining traction," Lochmann said. "We know there are people who love it and some people who hate it, but our core customers — the players — they want to hear it."

This sentence displays a lack of knowledge about public relations, marketing, economics, taste, and common sense. The "core customers" are your customers, who hate In The Big House.

Meanwhile, the Defilement is hinted at further in a caption:

“We’d love to get into the Big House and play it,” says Pop Evil lead vocalist Leigh Kakaty, who grew up in Grand Rapids.

Let's murder our brand for WWE entrance music.


Yay. This debacle will go down as Dave Brandon's halo.

More Trouba. Local hockey expert Jim Lahey on Michigan's newest commit:

Trouba is a total package defenceman with elite ability. Looked like a man among boys in AAA, and that pretty much continues in the USHL. Has excellent size, will probably grow an inch or so and end up somewhere in the range of 6'2 215lbs as a pro.

Trouba makes a clean, smart first pass out of his zone and plays with perfect position on breakouts. Stays calm, never panics, and consistently loses the forechecker completely behind the net to create odd man rushes. This won't happen at the next level as often, but he shows the poise needed to create good breakouts at the next level.

Takes care of his own end, does not allow himself to get pushed around in front of or behind the net. Superb zone awareness.

And the United States of Hockey:

Jacob Trouba already has four assists on the young season. The recent University of Michigan commit is going to do very well against USHL competition thanks to his tremendous strength and toughness. The big test will come against the college teams where there’s going to be less time and space, forcing Trouba to make quicker decisions. The first major test for Trouba and his teammates comes right away as the U18s will take on Trouba’s future school Monday at Yost. The fellas from The Pipeline Show caught up with Trouba about his recent college commitment and the way he plays.

Another note on Trouba: TPS brought up that some have compared Trouba to former NTDP defenseman and current Anaheim Duck Cam Fowler. If you know me, you know I hate comparison scouting reports. While it may give people a basic picture of what a player might play like, they are often taken as gospel by those that read it and that’s pretty unfair to the prospect.

Trouba and Fowler are similar in these ways: They are American, played at the NTDP, are good offensive defensemen. That’s it. Trouba plays with an edge and brings an important physical element to his game. He has good offensive instincts and a powerful shot. Fowler is a heady defenseman that makes plays with his skills, defends with good positioning and is a pure puck mover. I’ve seen both play multiple times and I just don’t get the comparison. Jacob Trouba plays like Jacob Trouba. /dismount soap box.

Is it just me or does Michigan have a much better track record of reeling in elite, top-ten-pick defensemen than forwards? Michigan's last top ten pick at forward was Eric Nystrom, and even at the time people thought that was a huge reach. Trouba, JMFJ, and Mike Komisarek were all top ten picks.

Etc.: Hockey exhibition preview from somewhere in Canada mostly notable for naming the opponent the "UOIT Ridgebacks." We have declared Minesota a "Maize Out." RIP Maize Outs. Holdin' the Rope takes stock a third of the way through the season.



September 30th, 2011 at 6:08 PM ^

Isn't it a little insane that Roh was playing football with (even a light case of) mono?  IIRC you are supposed to carefully avoid exertion or any kind of trauma to avoid permanently damaging organs that are abnormally enlarged during the illness.  I guess if he didn't mention it to the docs they wouldn't know, but jeez, that might be something you'd ask a 20ish college student  who's feeling crappy/lethargic about before you pat him on the head, hand him some antibiotics and tell him to go back to tackling people...


September 30th, 2011 at 6:17 PM ^

I first went to a Michigan game in 1969-Bo's first game as coach- and was it a wild scene.  The games I got to attend in the 70's also seemed like getting in on a big giant party.  Man were people having fun. My Dad purchased season tickets in 1979 when I was in LSA and about the same time the games were first sold out on a season ticket basis. Many fans were in their 20's and 30's and it was still a giant party with people making noise and having a good time. Over the years these people kept their seats  and the crowd aged and aged and aged. It became a quiet place and I often wondered why did I come to sit in an uncomfortable seat with a bunch of grumpy 40-60 yr olds listening to the MMB playing the same old, same old.

My Dad had to go in a nursing home in 2008 and couldn't make it to the stadium, so I quit going to M Stadium and went to the home to watch games with him. This year,  I decided it might be fun to go to the Notre Dame game.

Man, what a difference. It was like going to a giant party again. Except this time the music fit the vibe. I am so happy the powers-that-be have updated the experience. MMB has their place, but I'm sure I'm not the only one that appreciates Pop Evil and the rawk music.  I will guarantee you, 90,000 people would not have stayed for 30 minutes after the game without the music.


September 30th, 2011 at 6:44 PM ^

I mean, it's not all going to be good.  And a lot of people like crappy music, so what you or I think is good or bad someone else might think is the other way around. 

Admittedly, I haven't been back to a game since the new piped in RAWK and so on.  I'll be there thanksgiving weekend, though, so I'll give my full opinion then.


September 30th, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^

Warning: I have no proof for any of this. However, i have this sneaking suspicion that In The Big House is bought and paid for by the athletic department. The MO of the AD has been to leak stuff to the local papers to gauge public reaction/influence opinion (see: moving the OSU game, the mascot, night game uniforms), how does Pop Evil get an article in the detroit news on aug 19th  and on ESPN on aug 18th without some outside help? Then the athletic department has it playing before the team enters the stadium just a few weeks later, that just reeks of a marketing plan. Plus the production value of the video is pretty high, plus they have footage of the stadium and team they probably wouldnt have access to without the consent of the AD. And of course the song and album release are all timed perfectly with the start of the football season. The self-serving justifications from the AD also make me suspicious. 

/takes tin foil hat off

now, i realize Pop Evil are probably media savvy and kinda popular and touring with a big-ish rawk band (and i do wish them the best) so its possible blah blah blah but there is a lot of circumstantial evidence there to suggest heavy AD involvement. 




September 30th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^

It's not just me.  It's too neat, it's too perfect, that this regional band with very little traction can all of the sudden be getting mentions on ESPN and other media outlets without some help from some form of marketing machine.  There's a feel of plausible denability here.  If it's embraced "Hey, look at the awesome fans we have that wrote this song for us."  If it's not "Well, you know, the band wrote this song and there's a wide range of opinion."  So no, I don't see you as wearing a tin foil hat.  I see you as understanding the reach of the marketing machine.


October 1st, 2011 at 12:50 AM ^

Okay, we get it. Brian thinks Pop Evil is bad, therefore everyone adopts that opinion, therefore Brian writes about it every day. It's like beating a dead horse.....

Anyway, I like the song AND the band. Listen to Last Man Standing and Monster You Made. They're good songs. At least I think so. And if you don't then that's fine with me. I hate country music with a passion, but everybody has a right to like what they want. What I find hilarious is that everyone thinks this will be the start of armageddon for DB and M athletics. DB is doing a terrific job and he's not going anywhere any time soon. The stadium experience is changing, so either quit your bitching and get behind your university or just keep your grumpy old man-esque comments and attitude at home. I'm sure the Big House will still sell out without you.