Unverified Voracity Attacks Cover Four
Scott Matzka has a very bad disease. Former Michigan hockey player Scott Matzka, who was a short-handed goal waiting to happen and took EECS 380 at the same time I did, has ALS. Please visit his site and help out if you can.
A Michigan Man does not jackknife powerbomb Kevin Nash.
Saw @RealKevinNash at the airport today. Almost jackknife powerbombed him through tarmac. Opted for picture instead pic.twitter.com/OXD8lCPZH7
— Henry Poggi (@The_Hank_Poggi) July 1, 2016
Apparent attrition. Brad Hawkins has not enrolled:
Hawkins' high school coach at Camden, Dwayne Savage, confirmed that Hawkins is not in school yet as he's still awaiting clearance from the NCAA Clearinghouse -- now known as the NCAA Eligibility Center. Savage said that Hawkins still plans on playing football at Michigan this season and hopes to have his clearance at some point toward the middle of July.
"He's not in school yet," Savage said. "I believe it's a Clearinghouse situation. Right now everything's still a go for Michigan. He just has to get everything cleared before he can step on campus."
This doesn't happen often with Michigan recruits so I don't have a feel for how likely it is that things get resolved by fall. Sam Webb is saying he doesn't have high hopes Hawkins will enroll this fall. Michigan might pick him back up after a prep semester.
If you've read the recent recruiting profiles, you know that in my opinion this is more of an issue for the safety depth chart than receiver because I really like the two sleeper-ish guys they took and have yet to get to Dylan Crawford.
Speaking of those sleeper-ish guys. PSU, OSU, and MSU are all using a ton of cover four, so this Ian Boyd article on the route slot receivers have to get down to bust these Ds is of considerable relevance:
For teams with QBs that have enough arm, against cover 4 defenses that like to bracket the single side receiver, this is a really popular way to attack the field safety:
Defenses that either want to bracket the single-side receiver in cover 2 or else drop the boundary safety down to stuff the run love to play this coverage against trips formations. The outside corner is in straight man coverage on the "X" receiver while the space-backer (S), middle linebacker (M), and field safety (F) are playing zone over the two slot receivers.
This is variously called "flag" or "seven" or a "corner" route. I go with the latter in UFR, FWIW.
Impact on the game
Perhaps the biggest response to cover 4 that has come into vogue around the game is the use of vertical routes from the slot receiver with which to attack the safeties. There are other good route combinations for attacking cover 4 that don't include seven routes but they all generally involve sending a slot receiver down the field to either attack the safety or occupy him so the offense can isolate a corner.
Teams that don't have receivers they can use in the slot to attack safeties down the field are at a major disadvantage in stopping cover 4 teams from successfully bringing numbers to stop both their outside receivers AND their running backs.
Perhaps the biggest winner in all of this is the "undersized" outside receiver who's excellent in running a variety of routes from different areas on the field. Three of the top four receivers in Big 12 play in 2015 (statistically) were Sterling Shepard (5'10" 195), Corey Coleman (5'11" 185), and Jakeem Grant (5'7" 168). Each of them were wildly effective in part because of the seven route and the way that opening up space outside allows smaller receivers to move inside and still have opportunities to run vertical routes.
Eddie McDoom, Nate Johnson, and Dylan Crawford are all this guy. (Crawford's not undersized but he's not huge either.) Michigan appears to have recruited this year's class with a major emphasis on winning vertical matchups from the slot.
This can't be rational. Kenpom puts together a graph of playing time for starters depending on how many fouls they have and comes back with a very Beilein approach:
Kenpom:
Two fouls: The player with two fouls has his minutes severely restricted for the entirety of the first half. There is some leniency given with 4-6 minutes until halftime, but there is very little opportunity for the player with two fouls to see the floor in the first half. There is odd unanimity among coaches that a player with two fouls should be protected with 20:01 remaining and should not be protected with 20:00 left in the game. If you are of the mindset that coaches are too aggressive benching guys with two fouls, this is a good piece of evidence that a herd mentality exists.
I am of that mindset and even more of that mindset when it comes to John Beilein teams, which have historically been top ten in foul avoidance. I have zero hope that Beilein will suddenly change his behavior in this department, so let's at least hope that Billy Donlon makes the defense way more handsy so that first-half autobench is at least somewhat more justified.
Large men: present. Michigan's basketball roster just got a lot more beef on it. One, Mo Wagner is no longer a chopstick:
My man Moe Wagner came in at 6'11" 211lbs this time last year. #238.6lbs pic.twitter.com/9hEL6mma05
— Jon Sanderson (@CampSanderson) June 29, 2016
Two, both Jon Teske and Austin Davis are listed at 240+ on Michigan's just-released roster. Both are physically viable this year. This will be a nice change from last year, when Wagner couldn't get off the bench for big chunks of the season and Mark Donnal was the default.
More persons of NFL interest. A couple of "interior linemen" make another one of those NFL.com top tens. Scare quotes because:
3. Taco Charlton, Michigan
There might not be much mention of Charlton in the preseason considering he has started just four games headed into his senior season, but film doesn't lie, and NFL scouts have Charlton pegged squarely on their radar. At 6-6, 285 with long arms and a muscular build, Charlton has the perfect frame to play as a 3-4 defensive end. However, he could also serve as a 4-3 base end with the ability to bump inside on rushing downs in the NFL. Charlton had 33 pressures and 5.5 sacks despite playing just 43 percent of the Wolverines' defense snaps and those numbers are getting ready to make another jump. Charlton has freaky athletic traits and functional power to go with them.
This 285 pound dude is likely Michigan's starting weakside end, because the rest of the line is two-deep with very good veterans or Rashan Gary. Anyway, this is what I am talking about when I mention Charlton as a big breakout candidate. His production in limited time last year was really good. Michigan's depth means he might jump from the rotation guy with the least playing time to the one with the most. With Lawrence Marshall moving to the strongside, Chase Winovich is the main and only competition at WDE.
Wormley also made the list a few spots lower:
6. Chris Wormley, Michigan
Wormley Has the frame and athleticism to be considered as either an interior lineman or defensive end in a 4-3 or at defensive end for an odd front. Wormley is powerful and can plow through the edges of blockers. While some rushers are content to try and whip the man in front of them, Wormley is able to dart left and right to create doubt and uncertainty for blockers. He combines his strength and foot quickness to generate a pass rush that is very translatable on the next level. Wormley is generating a good deal of buzz in the scouting community and that buzz will get much louder this year.
Wormley is apparently headed for three-tech this year if things go to plan. Gary will have to obliterate the TEs.
Peppers makes the LB list and Lewis the DB list, though Lewis is just 9th because his size puts a "firm ceiling" on his NFL draft prospects.
Recruiting is important, part infinity. PFF released a list of the top 101 players in college football that we mentioned in this space because it has five different Michigan defenders on it. Some dude on 247 ran it through some statistical analysis. Results:
Minimum: 1 ~ 1.000
First Quartile: 31.5 ~ 98.40
Median: 238 ~ 90.90
Third Quartile: 1000 ~ 84.19
Maximum: 3000Over 25% of players listed in PPFs player rankings were rated as 5* players coming out of high school by the composite. Over 50% were rated as 4* players. While recruiting rankings aren't perfect they are a strong correlate of future success.
Five star players are approximately 1-3% of the pool and four-stars about 10%. This is in line with findings about the NFL draft; applying this analysis to PFF's rankings of college players based on their performance right now is even stronger evidence that recruiting rankings matter.
Etc.: It's Dr. Z week on MMQB. SI talks with Lindsay Miller about the case the NCAA is building against Ole Miss. Charles Matthews profiled.
His mama called him Dylan, I'm gonna call him Dylan.
Patagonia has gotten way too popular. Glad I stopped wearing it 7 years ago.
I'm glad you're taking being "that guy" all the way. Really embracing it. If you're going to do something, go flat out.
Recruiting Rankings definitely matter. As does coaching/player development. Much like our muppets one without the other isn't doing much.
Was told he would've been Mr. Basketball for the State of Michigan his senior year but for some dude named Earvin.
in 1977, Johnson's senior year. He obviously would have won it if they did. But if Johnson didn't get it, his teammate at MSU Jay Vincent probably would have. From what I remember, they were the two top players in the state that year.
This is truth - and Trent Tucker would've been next in line, I'm from that era and don't remember much being said about Nash at all. He WAS a large young man, and did get a schollie to Tennessee, so he was clearly good.
Ah, Henry Poggi.. what migth have been.
Thank god for a new front page post. We were on the verge of having to look at Tate "ass my dude" Martell for the whole holiday weekend.
I'll be honest, I'm just happy I don't have to see that abhorrent scarlet everytime I compulsively visit Mgoblog now
First off, I agree. Second, I think "recruiting rankings matter" applies differently to individuals vs. teams.
I don't have the time for this right now but maybe someone else does or maybe I'll do it later in the summer. Anyway, I imagine there is a more direct correlation between recruiting rankings and rankings of individual performance at the next level(s) (i.e., PFF rankings or NFL draft), whereas overall correlation of team performance (i.e., record and advanced O/D stats) is much more directly tied to a combination of recruiting ranking and 'fit' or team need.
Examples of the latter being Rich Rods tiny guys at WVU, Baylor and Oregon's track teams, Wisconsin's olinemen, Harbaugh's blocky-catchy types, etc.
When people say "recruiting rankings do/don't matter", I think the entire argument is too simplistic. The main takeways being recruiting rankings matter differently to different programs and talent is talent.
The evidence is past overwhelming at this point, and the only possible excuse for anyone to say "what about Mike Hart/MSU etc" is ignorance of the dozens of studies that prove that they do.
Regarding your post, I disagree--there is coorelation between team success and recruiting rankings--that also has been shown in multiple studies. Just to state one fact, nine of the last ten National champs have had at least one class rated #1 or #2. What we know from Iowa or MSU is that it's possible to succeed without highly rated classes--possible, not likely, which is different.
Southgate Aquinas, 1977. Highly recruited basketball player. Went to University of Tennessee and played three years until he had a dispute with Don DeVoe. Went to Europe to play hoops but blew out an ACL. Got into the military then rasslin. The rest is history...
That SI article on Ole Miss makes me shake my head. How they thought they were going to get away with that is beyond description. Yet... they still haven't really paid any penalties yet. A small fine and limiting your recruiting is just an annoyance, not a penaly.
Also, glad to see we have Mo Moe Wagner!
The thought of an SEC school getting punished severely seems kind of laughable. But maybe the NCAA will surprise us. Ole Miss is the perfect SEC program to make an example of...to give the illusion that NCAA gives a crap. If it were Alabama facing these charges, they would do nothing other than to shift the blame to the women's basketball like at North Carolina.
Just don't stretch too long. You can have your boosters throw cars and cash at your players. You can cover for a child rapist for 40 years. You can have fake classes for two decades. But, for the love of GOD, do NOT stretch too long.
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I am not sure how the Y axis of the foul plot is computed. Can someone explain this to me?
I am one of those people that hate benching due to fouls. My theory is that you want to maximize the number of minutes your best players play. The way to maximize their minutes is to play and if you foul out so be it. I would rather foul out and play 32 minutes then play 25 minutes and have 4 fouls.
In other words, a starter with 2 fouls in the first half is on the bench 80% of the time.
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I've been worried about Charlton being too big for WDE (when most are in the 240 lb range) but after reading this PFFF piece about protypical players I'm less worried. Most of the guys listed are 265-280lb.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/2014-defensive-prototypes-the-d-line/
What I don't know is if UM's 2016 scheme will put the WDE in 6,7 or 9 technique on most downs. Anybody have a sense for that?
6-7 tech: His job is usually to set the edge in the run game, but he is also expected to be able to bring his share of pass rush, either beating the tackle around the edge or forcing his way inside a tight end. Since they’re often expected to fight through a double team, battle past a chip, or simply disrupt the release of the TE, the 6- or 7-tech DE is usually a more powerful player than the speed-rushing end, and almost always a better run defender.
9-tech: the speed-rushing defensive end in a 4-3, and is usually used more in obvious pass-rushing situations rather than as an every-down alignment. The Lions and Eagles have used the famous ‘Wide-9’ alignment in their base defense in recent years, but both have found the limitations of doing that for every snap of the game.
i am wondering how often the hash tag "#238.6lbs" will be used.
WHY CANT PEOPLE JUST WRITE "HE IS NOW 238.6 LBS"
/getoffmylawnrant
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