THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Time to shake off the last game and resume Beilein time. Coaches versus expectations in the tournament since 2000:

PAKE = performance against Kenpom expectations. PASE = performance against seed expectations. Michigan has a rather good coach, especially once you adjust for the fact that due to Circumstances Beilein has just 10 appearances in the round of 64 versus 14, 19, 14, and 18 for the other guys on the list. On a per-appearance basis nobody does it like Beilein.

As the man says, LFG.

THE LINEUP CARD

Click for big.

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country. Minutes are from the last five games except where starred.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	0	Ahmaad Rorie	Sr.	6'1, 183	91	22	117	No
Will get to the rim some but mostly a shooter. Shooting 54/36 with low TO rate and solid assist rate, doesn't draw FTs.
G	34	Michael Oguine	Sr.	6'2, 180	79	22	117	No
Slasher with a backup plan. Half his shots at rim, 65% there, few other twos, 35% from three, gets to line.
G	21	Timmy Falls	Jr.	6'2, 165	62	16	90	Meh
Promoted to starting lineup for last 4; 31 TO rate and shooting 41/33. Yikes.
F	35	Sayeed Pridgett	Jr.	6'5 200	82	25	112	Ish
Post specialist gets more than half his shots at the rim and converts at 74%, most unassisted. 47% from three but only 38 attempts on year.
F	22	Bobby Moorehead	Sr.	6'10, 225	75	11	102	Meh
Wing Just A Shooter forced into 20 MPG at C. 31% from deep.
G	23	Kendal Manuel	Jr.	6'4, 177	41	22	112	No
Not Just A Shooter But Should Be: 43/43 split, meh 17 TO rate. Might be horrible on D if Falls is playing over him?
F	1	Donaven Dorsey	Sr.	6'7, 216	22	15	119	No
Another Just A Shooter wing playing C. 46% from three though.
C	2	Mack Anderson	Fr.	6'9, 202	32	14	98	Yes
The usual freshman C who does nothing but dunk and turn the ball over. 1.1 block rate.
C	15	Ben Carter	Sr.	6'10, 282	0	17	37	Yes
Has seen 1 minute in the last 11 games but I am duty bound to place him on the list.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

tall guy no longer extant [JD Scott]

Michigan has an unusual level of familiarity with Montana because the two teams met in a 3-14 matchup last year and every player the Griz will put on the floor except a reserve center played in that game. Perhaps more important for Montana's chances in this one is the two guys who won't be around: Fabijan Krslovic and Jamar Akoh, who went 239 and 253 pounds last year. Krslovic graduated and Akoh was lost for the year 15 games in.

So what do you do when you're a Big Sky team down your only functional big? Throw a headband at the problem. 6'7", 192 pound Bobby Moorehead plays about 20 minutes a game at C. As you might imagine, this has been a significant downgrade on D:

Akoh was on and off the floor before being shelved permanently and managed to miss both Creighton and Arizona, the only high-major opponents Montana played this year. Those were both blowouts, although of different flavors. Arizona held Montana to 0.6 PPP; Creighton scored 1.46.

Moorehead hasn't hampered Montana's offense but his personal role is minor. He occasionally takes a 3 (11% usage, 47 2PA on the year, 12 FTAs) and hits 31%. He offers some spacing and might take Teske away from the hoop.

Or maybe he won't because Michigan might as well put Teske on Sayeed Pridgett, the heaviest guy Montana starts. There are no natural matchups for Teske against this team and Pridgett might be too quick for Teske to handle on the perimeter. Yaklich will have some decisions to make.

The reason the above is potentially sensible: Pridgett is 6'5" but does most of his work on the block. This works a treat against the lower echelons of D-I. Pridgett gets more than half his shots at the rim, creates most of those, and shoots 74% there. He's very good in the midrange (43%) and is shooting a baffling 47% from 3. This is baffling because he has 38 attempts on the year. Pridgett is coming from a 3/16 sophomore year so maybe he hasn't internalized that he is goin' Goins.

Pridgett is the only Montana player to crack the "major contributor" Kenpom tier that starts at 24% usage. With the exception of Moorehead this team is very balanced.

The other three starters, per Kenpom, are all guards with exactly 22% usage. Ahmaad Rorie is the point guard and the guy with the heaviest creation burden. While his assist rate of 22 isn't in X territory he generates about 80% of his twos. Rorie doesn't get to the rim a ton but is a 49% shooter on other twos and hits a good clip from 3.

He likes stepbacks, but against power conference teams that's about all he gets. Over the course of his Montana career his ORTG drops 15 points in Kenpom top 100 games, of which there have been just 17 in three years.

Michael Oguine is the slasher. He is the one guy on the roster with serious bounce.

Half his shots are at the rim and he finishes at 65% despite being 6'2"—that's pretty good. Oguine was also the Big Sky defensive player of the year, although we know the vagaries of those kind of awards.

Oguine is also knocking down threes at a 37% clip, so you have to respect that aspect of his game as well. He's maintained his ORTG better than his teammates in the 4 Kenpom top 100 games the Griz have played this year, dropping only a few points. He'll probably draw Matthews. Good luck with that.

Kendal Manuel is Just A Shooter. He gets 18% of his shots at the rim and is real bad in the midrange so he's got one of those shooting splits: 43/43. His assist rate in barely into double digits and he has a TO rate that's a touch high given his profile. He only gets 48% of Montana's minutes and seemingly must have severe deficiencies in his game that don't show up in his statistical profile. I mean, beyond the ones that are already there.

That's because Timmy Falls has recently replaced Manuel in the starting lineup. Fall has a TO rate of 31% and shoots 41/33. This adds up to a 90 ORTG. Unless Falls is a massively better defender it would seem like you'd give Manuel 80% of the minutes and let Falls get spot minutes here and there.

Wing Donaven Dorsey gets about 12 MPG, which is mostly at the 5. He ventures inside the line a bit but is mostly useful for his 46% three point shooting on 80 attempts.

Finally, freshman Mack Anderson is 6'9", so he's got that going for him. He is otherwise your typical overwhelmed freshman post who dunks on assists and rebounds a little bit and boots the ball out of bounds too often. He's listed at just 202 pounds, so even he's more wing than post.

It is distantly possible that one of two freshman posts gets some minutes, because they are hypothetically big enough to stand up to Teske. Kelby Kramer is 237 pounds and Ben Carter (Not That Ben Carter) is 282; yes this paragraph is only here so I can say Ben Carter (Not That Ben Carter).

ABOUT LAST TIME

[JD Scott]

The grim ugliness of last year's game cannot be overstated. In addition to the woman who kept yelling, there was a 15 minute delay due to clock issues in the second half, pushing the late game even later.

When basketball was happening it wasn't much better. Montana flew out to a 10-0 lead; Michigan clawed its way back in gradually (thanks in part to Jaaron Simmons) and took a three-point lead into half time. Montana got a bucket on their first possession in the second half and then did not score until almost the 9 minute mark, allowing Michigan to… slightly expand their lead.

Ace:

Montana's aggressive trapping on ball screens broke the offense's rhythm, as did an early flurry of whistles. After the game's very first media timeout, Beilein fielded a lineup of Jaaron Simmons, Jordan Poole, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Jon Teske—essentially 1.5 starters with Robinson in there. If you went to bed early and only saw the box score today, you're probably quite confused.

… I thought the offense was on the verge of taking apart the Montana trap when Zavier Simpson had to exit. While Jaaron Simmons and Eli Brooks both had strong shifts—more on that later—there was a longer adjustment period than necessary.

Montana's screen trapping was effective in part because of how disjointed Michigan got; they'll certainly try it again; that seems like a worse bet against this Zavier Simpson than last year's.

THE TEMPO-FREE

The offense is Big Sky Beilein (Stauskas edition):

• They shoot the hell out of the ball: 25th from 3, 12th from 2, 42% on other twos. Adds up to the #7 eFG offense in the country.
• The rest of the factors aren't as extreme as Beilein usually is but in the ballpark: they're pretty good at taking care of the ball (106th) and are pretty bad at OREBs (194th) and FT rate (222nd).
• The biggest divergence from the usual Beilein approach is that Montana is about bang average when it comes to getting threes up.
• Montana is also pretty fast, with about a quarter of their FGAs in the first ten seconds of the clock.

All of this sounds pretty impressive but when it gets put in the adjusted efficiency blender it comes out to the #115 offense in the country.

On defense Montana was legitimately very good last year even considering the competition level. They were 56th, which would have landed them dead average in the Big Ten. This year not so much. Their D has dropped to 160th. Details:

• The trapping creates a lot of iso. Relatively few buckets against Montana are assisted.
• It also creates a lot of fouls, particularly on guards. Montana's 277th in defensive FT rate and near dead last in FT defense. We joke about "FT defense" frequently; in this case I'd give some credence to the idea that trapping ball handlers on PNR a lot should result in worse defensive FT rates since generally the guards are going to be good FT shooters.
• Despite being tiny the Griz are top 50 in DREBs. Probably a conference effect only.
• Montana's defensive SOS is 343, near dead last nationally. Strong possibility that they were able to hide for much of the year and will get crushed against a legitimate high major.

THE KEYS

Exploit the lack of Montana height. Whether it's grabbing offensive rebounds or going to Teske for significant usage, the best ways to beat up on a team that lacks anything resembling a center are not things that Michigan does well, or much.

Every Michigan possession is going to be the equivalent of a pick and roll switch for Teske, so they could skip the whole getting trapped bit and just dump it down. But maybe not.

…or match it. Michigan can play Livers at the 5 as much as they want, so if Teske's having trouble checking smaller gents or in foul trouble that's a much more realistic backup plan than Anyone Other Than Teske has been at the 5 all year.

X vs traps. Struggles last year with blips of productivity that got cut off by foul trouble. This year there's a solid chance X eviscerates it and Montana has to resort to drop coverage and the like.

Limit threes. Deeply unlikely that Montana maintains its productivity inside the line against Michigan. Their best shot is the best shot of all overmatched teams without any tall guys: scorch it from three.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 17.