just guys being dudes [Patrick Barron]

The Title Of The Game Column Is Also It's Over Because It's Over Comment Count

Brian November 18th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

11/16/2019 – Michigan 44, Michigan State 10 – 8-2, 5-2 Big Ten

This, finally, is what the program that used to proudly proclaim that they brought "60 minutes of unnecessary roughness" with them has been reduced to:

“I think it was a little bit of poor class on their part, poor sportsmanship to come over to our sideline barking how they were,” Michigan State linebacker Tyriq Thompson said. “It comes with the game, with the rivalry. It is what it is. Still, it’s just terrible taste.”

Whining about the Michigan sideline waving to them, and asserting an advantage in "class" immediately after a game in which one of their defensive linemen was ejected for head-hunting Shea Patterson. Last year that same guy tried to injure Michigan players, twice.

This site doesn't go in for "class." Class is a way to complain that you got your ass beat and someone enjoyed doing it to you. As Spencer Hall has asserted, great teams taunt. The least interesting question in football is whether team X ran up the score. I don't want to hear it if the answer is no. Twist the knife.

It's not like Michigan State can work harder to beat Michigan. There's nowhere else to go. So show them where things are at.

[After the JUMP: where it's at]

-----------------------------

This is where things are at: without one of the most unlikely endings in college football history Mark Dantonio would be 1-4 against Jim Harbaugh. The 1 is a four-point win over John O'Korn. The three Ls are all by two scores or, in this case, five. In the most competitive of them MSU gained 94 yards of offense.

Michigan State is headed for a bowl sponsored by a suburb of Chicago if they can beat Maryland and Rutgers. Next year they lose seven starters from their defense, which has already flagged badly as the talent starts to run out. Dantonio is about to be deposed in a lawsuit from Curtis Blackwell. The aftermath of Blackwell being made the fall guy has cratered MSU recruiting, which has zero top-15 players in Michigan and zero top-20 players in Ohio as they trundle towards a recruiting class currently ranked behind Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia Tech, and Iowa State. Cincinnati, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Kentucky have higher-rated commits in MSU's home state than MSU does. Six guys have already hit the eject button and headed for the portal.

Faced with a disastrous offense last year, Dantonio went the Brady Hoke route, firing nobody but rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Faced with clear evidence his quarterback was concussed against Illinois, Dantonio again went the Brady Hoke route, asserting in a press conference that everything was fine and no check was needed to be made only for the school's medical staff to assert he was lying in a statement issued hours after his press conference.

Michigan State's athletic director is a vastly unqualified internal hire who owes his job in part to being Dantonio's buddy. Bill Beekman is not going to fire Dantonio. If Dantonio does decide to pack it in, good luck having that guy convince a coach to sign up for a job in the same division as stable, winning editions of OSU, Michigan, and PSU—especially after MSU's fanbase now expects 10 wins instead of 7.

This is as good as it's going to get for Michigan State in the near future.

-----------------------------

This is the way Mark Dantonio deserves to go out. Punt/Counterpunt summed up the real legacy of his tenure:

That’s how you build a cult of personality. You convince people that applause, criticism, and outright neglect are all signs that things are working. It’s how you can get a Glenn Winston, a Donnie Corley, a Josh King, and Demetric Vance, an Austin Robertson, a Curtis Blackwell, a Delton Williams, a Chris L Rucker, a Demetrius Cooper, an LJ Scott, a Demetrious Cox, a MacGarrett Kings, a Jon Reschke, a Max Bullough, and a Joe Bachie. It’s how you can let Will Gholston play after he practiced some MMA mid-game, let Will Gholston play after he was knocked unconscious, or let Brian Lewerke play after getting knocked half-unconscious, then make three contradictory statements about it.

Anything goes as long as you beat Michigan. Finally, this culture has caught up to Michigan State. Finally, the program that spawned the above paragraph is looking for its fainting couch because it has nothing else to do. It took way too long but, finally, it's over.

Fake tough guys always get exposed. 

AWARDS

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[Bryan Fuller]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

you're the man now, dog

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#1 Ronnie Bell. Nine catches, 150 yards, a fair number of those made by Bell himself after the catch. 42-yard slot fade was harder than it looked after the DB fell down; body control to catch that and keep his feet was excellent. Also a crucial part of Michigan's success attacking the perimeter as he absolutely leveled MSU DBs every time his blocking became relevant. On a per-involvement basis probably grades out higher than…

#2 Shea Patterson. But not by much. Patterson had a fair number of throws that weren't great and had his numbers boosted by a lot of screens and easy RPS YAC… and also put up 11.6 YPA. Also had a couple of successful runs.

#3 Lavert Hill. Doesn't get the credit he deserves most of the time because he's not on the screen. Hill's line: 1 assisted tackle, 1 PBU, one INT. He now has as many PBUs as unassisted tackles on the season. This is the first time he's broken out of HM territory. Is this because he stepped out of bounds after the INT so he could flex on Cody White? Maybe! But also he's further down the list below than he should be because of the nature of the position.

Honorable mention: DPJ turned nothing into a TD and almost a second; we'll call the punt return and ensuing fumble even. Nico Collins drew yet another redzone PI and scored a touchdown of his own. Mike Danna had another sack in a strong outing. Carlo Kemp forced the lone ground TFL and added a sack and a half. Josh Uche didn't get the stats but added five pressures per PFF. Khaleke Hudson blocked a punt and legally annihilated an MSU WR.

KFaTAotW Standings

NOTE: New scoring! HM: 1 point. #3: 3 points. #2: 5 points. #1: 8 points. Split winners awarded points at the sole discretion of a pygmy marmoset named Luke.

18: Josh Uche (#3 MTSU, #3 Army, T2 Rutgers, #2 Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland, HM MSU)
17: Aidan Hutchinson(#1 Army, HM Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, T1 Maryland)
15: Shea Patterson(HM MTSU, #1 Rutgers. HM PSU, #2 MSU)
14: Whole Dang OL(#2 PSU, #1 ND, HM Maryland).
13: Zach Charbonnet (#2 MTSU, #2 Army, HM PSU, HM ND, HM Maryland), Nico Collins (HM Rutgers, HM Iowa, #1 PSU, #3 Maryland HM MSU)
12: Cam McGrone(HM Rutgers, T3 Iowa, HM Illinois, #3 PSU, #2 ND), Jordan Glasgow (HM MTSU, T3 Iowa, #1 Illinois, HM Maryland), Ronnie Bell (HM Army, T3 Rutgers, HM Illinois, #1 MSU)
10:  Ambry Thomas (#1 MTSU, HM Rutgers, HM Illinois), Kwity Paye (T2 Rutgers, T1 Iowa, HM PSU, T1 Maryland)
9: Khaleke Hudson (#2 Iowa, HM Illinois, HM ND, HM Maryland, HM MSU)
7: Josh Metellus (HM Army, HM Iowa, #2 Maryland), Hassan Haskins (#3 Illinois, #3 ND, HM Maryland)
6: Lavert Hill (HM Army, HM Iowa, HM ND, #3 MSU)
3: DPJ (T3 Rutgers, HM MSU), Mike Danna (T1 Maryland, HM MSU)
2: Dax Hill(HM Rutgers, HM Iowa), Tru Wilson (HM ND, HM Maryland), Will Hart (HM MTSU, HM Maryland), Carlo Kemp(HM MSU)
1:  Josh Ross (HM, MTSU), Sean McKeon (HM, MTSU),Brad Hawkins (HM Army), Christian Turner (HM Rutgers), Nick Eubanks (HM Illinois), Brad Hawkins (HM ND), Giles Jackson (HM Maryland), Michael Barrett (HM Maryland).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan induces a false start, blocks a punt, and immediately hits Nico Collins to go up 34-10 and effectively end the game.

 

Honorable mention: Cornelius Johnson provides the exclamation point; Lewerke flutters two INTs into Michigan CBs' arms; DPJ scores a touchdown out of a bunch of nothing; Paul Bunyan wears pants.

X4OROG3KOKTIFUY4YU4SNSLDIY_thumb_thu[2]MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Lewerke nails an RPO that puts MSU on the one-inch line; MSU scores on the next play and for a queasy second doubt plagues your mind.

Honorable mention: Michigan's second drive ends with a blatant uncalled PI; Jacub Panasuik cheapshots Patterson; Jim Harbaugh's post-game press conference is not a vicious wrestling promo aimed at Mark Dantonio in an attempt to goad him into staying.

OFFENSE

It turns out they were indeed close. Jim Harbaugh after Penn State:

"I feel like we're very close offensively and very close to hitting our stride, hitting on all cylinders," he said. "Really good evidence to back that up and also what I see."

This was widely derided. Since they've put up 45, 38, and 44 against ND, Maryland, and MSU. I did not specifically deride this quote but I did roll my eyes at it, so here's the mea culpa: I pulled the trigger on BPONE too fast this year and particularly with Patterson and Gattis.

Hit 'em where they ain't. I can't tell you how many times this hasn't happened. Michigan has gone into a lot of games in which it seems like the right approach is to gesture vaguely at the run game and rely on passing. Outside of the occasional Ohio State game, when the gloves are always off, I'm not sure there's been another outing where they've followed through so emphatically.

I'll get exact numbers later in the week but some box-score approximates follow. Delete 10 Tru Wilson carries, almost all of which happened after the game was decided, and the goal-to-go-inside-the-five carries that Haskins had from the wildcat. If you disregard those Michigan had 16 rushes and 37 dropbacks* as they shredded the #11 SP+ defense. A defense that had been shredded by Ohio State and Wisconsin previously, yes, but now we get to talk about the Michigan offense in the same sentence as those two offenses.

Importantly for the future of the offense, this felt like Josh Gattis's thing much more than the Notre Dame game. The ND game was a lot of stuff that we'd seen last year with the occasional Speed In Space cameo. This was about 90% the latter, starting from the opening snap when they attempted to go deep, got sacked, and kept on throwing. MSU's defense dares you do to this; Michigan did it.

*[some of those happened in Tru Wilson time but also there were some short yardage carries, etc. I'll get the full picture in UFR]

The easiest example of the above. Michigan hit Ronnie Bell on ~3 RPO hitches where he was the innermost receiver on the trips side. When the linebacker level ran at the line of scrimmage there was no one within five yards of Bell on those catches, so he got to ramble upfield for first downs.

Earlier in the year I'd complained that Michigan was running the same RPO slant that was all the rage three years go and that opponents had learned to defend that fairly well. This was the opposite, a dead-easy throw that was going to be a successful play.

Also in this bin were Michigan's various flare screens, which both gained chunks of yards and moved MSU's eyes. Immediately after one of these flare screens Michigan got an eight yard run in part because one of the MSU LBs was looking at the edge of the field until the RB crossed the line of scrimmage. This is likely to be an RPS beatdown.

And introducing: wide receiver blocking. Michigan's WRs were called into a ton of blocking action because of the edge stuff. In addition to the obvious flare screens Michigan ran a speed option on which the pitch was made, got Giles Jackson two edge carries, and had a flat route to McKeon that was also a screen, with the WRs blocking downfield.

Bell and Collins stood out; Collins would get a stalk-block on his DB about 10 yards downfield and that guy went backwards and never got off his block. (I should mention here that I've been told that the bubble against PSU where Collins ran a slant was not a Collins issue—that was the playcall.) Bell executed about five cut blocks where he tossed his waist into the body of MSU DBs and ended them. One DB was able to get up and make a tackle on Jackson; the other guys stayed down and Michigan got chunks.

One of these Bell blocks got flagged for reasons that are mysterious on first viewing, because it looked identical to the other cut blocks. I know the cut block section of the rulebook is riddled with subclauses and it's possible Bell may have violated one of the many and arcane rules therein. I'm at a loss as to which one it was.

While we're on Bell. As I said above, that slot fade catch was fairly impressive:

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[Barron]

It could have been worse. Patterson's first half was a little wobbly, which resulted in a couple of throws where he took guys off their feet when they were about to run for 30 yards after the catch. The seam throw to McKeon was similar, although it's a lot more understandable to take a guy off their feet when it's 30 yards downfield. The slant to Black in the endzone was also well behind him.

Otherwise Patterson was excellent. Michigan got stuck in third and 14 early, called a route combo on which MSU had everything covered, and then Patterson slid out of the pocket to give Ronnie Bell time to get to a pocket of space on the sideline. He was able to break the pocket and make a few other plays happen, and his errors were limited to marginal balls. There weren't a lot of uncatchable ones, and there weren't any big errors except the sack immediately before the long field goal were he tripped.

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Literally didn't lay a finger on him [Fuller]

Even the bad stuff worked. Patterson checked it down to Peoples-Jones at the line of scrimmage twice. Neither of these plays were screens; they were just checkdowns on which DPJ got unblocked defenders almost immediately. He was a few inches away from turning those two opportunities into 60 yards and two touchdowns. Instead he had to settle for just the one.

This was oddly reminiscent of DPJ's punt return style, which is to look like he's not really doing much and then just outrun people without changing direction. Turns out he's fast.

Hello again Tarik Black. In the event Michigan loses Collins and DPJ to the NFL a lot is going to be on Tarik Black's plate next year, so it was nice to see him sky for a deep ball like he did very early in his career. He hasn't made a lot of downfield contested catches since.

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[Fuller]

Haskins-cat: approve. After a wildcat run last week when Patterson motioned out of the backfield Michigan went with a straight-up wildcat this week with Haskins and Mason in the backfield. This scored from the two in two plays the first time out; the second time Haskins got stopped at the LOS but momentarily broke a tackle and was then ruled down at the five. Patterson came in and Eubanks scored on the next play.

I don't mind wildcat snaps in short yardage situations, especially near the goal line. Telling the opposition you're running when they already expect you to run isn't much of a negative compared to buying back a blocker.

Vastardis a contender? When Ruiz went out for the back half of a drive, walk-on Andrew Vastardis came in. Vastardis has been the second-string center since Stueber's injury flipped Hongiford out to tackle and Spanellis moved to guard, so I imagine Michigan just wanted the guy who'd been snapping for the last three months to spot Ruiz. I wonder if that would still be the case if Ruiz was out for more than a few snaps.

Vastardis did have a low snap to Haskins but other than that he looked fine. Nice to have another option for next year, when at least three starting spots on the OL will be up for grabs.

DEFENSE

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[Barron]

Early thing, adjustment, over. Michigan met substandard opposition and whooped it, so there's not as much to say. This happens a lot.

The most interesting subplot of the day was the existence of an MSU Fall Camp Drive, albeit delivered in a different way. Usually these are obvious because they're end-arounds with a lead blocker and whatnot, but here the early success MSU had from their bunch sets was more of a football coach thing not immediately apparent to the layman. James Light:

MSU was able to work Michigan's expected coverages for a couple of third down conversions; they got the RPO not-quite-TD, and then as soon as Light noticed what was going on so did Don Brown and MSU's offense went in a hole.

Four! Four. Four. Elijah Collins's long run: four yards. Four! Michigan doesn't have the DTs to grab a bunch of TFLs even against a shaky OL but at no point did MSU have a successful run from Collins.

They did have a couple from Lewerke. I was surprised live that MSU wasn't running him more but after the dust cleared he did have 10 non-sack carries that went for a total of 30 yards. So that didn't work either.

MOVE. Michigan's MOVE call started off the satisfying false start/blocked punt/Collins touchdown sequence. Michigan DTs suddenly shifted right and an MSU guard came out of his stance. Couldn't hear Brown bellowing MOVE on the tape this time, unfortunately.

Still trying mesh. I missed Michigan's first sack of the afternoon because I was watching the coverage. MSU ran mesh, I momentarily thought "oh no," and then I saw Brad Hawkins sliding down to cover what was probably Lewerke's first or second read. He held the ball and ate a sack. That is strange. You'd think that if any opponent would be current on Michigan's vulnerability, or lack thereof, to crossing routes it would be MSU.

SPECIAL TEAMS

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lunch [Barron]

Only Marquise Walker can argue. Khaleke Hudson is probably the best punt-block specialist Michigan has ever had. This is related to his pass rush ability, where he's able to redirect and keep a lot of his momentum. On the one he returned to sender he zipped around the punt protector like he was not there.

I wonder if Michigan's punt block ability will continue after he's gone. It will at least in part—Michigan has had a couple other guys block punts over the last few years. But if Hudson is uniquely well suited to taking out spread punts there will be a step back.

Field goals. They were made, all by Quinn Nordin. I suggest they keep making them.

Uh… there was a punt. One punt. Against MSU.

Mild kickoff adventures. Jackson failed to field one kickoff that didn't get very far, had one return to about the 35, and almost touched the kick out of bounds. David theorized that the sun may have played a factor on the first. Meanwhile Michigan put all of theirs in the endzone except one pop-up the upback fielded. I prefer to get touchbacks whenever you can because against a poor opponent they're just extra bits of variance without a lot of upside.

MISCELLANOUS

Is this the ghost of a koala that was axe-murdered? You be the judge.

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[Barron]

Yes, go for it on the plus 40. We're not really talking about this. Not much else in game theory territory except I wasn't a big fan of Michigan's approach after they got down to the red zone just before the half. Going run-run to burn clock probably wasn't worth the decrease in expected points given the state of the MSU offense, and MSU promptly demonstrated why Michigan's gameplan was to avoid running up the middle.

Targeting roulette is also over. Probably? After years in which I feel utterly at sea whenever a targeting penalty is assessed or reviewed, I finally think I have a handle on it, and so do the people applying the rule. Did you strike someone with the crown of your helmet? You're gone. Did you hit a defenseless player (ie, a QB or WR immediately after a catch) in the head? You're gone. Otherwise… eh, probably all right.

I think it finally seems like targeting is usually going to be called right. Khaleke Hudson annihilated a WR over the middle; everyone braced for a flag; none came out, and that was correct. Kwity Paye was under threat after a borderline PF, and the replay booth correctly found that he'd hit the shoulder only. I've seen targeting called when guys put the crown into an opponent and targeting waved off when they put their facemask on the opponent.

Things aren't perfect. That Army targeting call when Turner got knocked off his feet and a second guy got ejected was pretty bad, but at least that felt like a rule applied in a situation it shouldn't be instead of something totally random. It still feels like CFB has finally arrived at a spot where most of the targeting calls are predictable and correct. Not all, but most.

Personal foul roulette, however. This game has turned into one of college football's most consistent ref shows. There's some justification for that, but a brief survey of the personal fouls shows a poor strike rate:

  • MSU gets flagged for a late hit on DPJ; the hit comes before Peoples-Jones is actually out of bounds.
  • Aidan Hutchinson is flagged for mutual shoving.
  • Luke Campbell is flagged for something that happens off screen and does not get a replay, because the replay is used for a taunting call on Cody White. White does loom over Hudson in a confrontational fashion and this one is probably correct.
  • Tarik Black gets flagged for a flex after his catch down the sidelines. This was ridiculous but did result in a spectacular reaction gif.
  • MSU gets a PF for shoving Hudson in the bench area.
  • Panasuik #1 gets a no-doubter and is ejected.
  • Panasuik #2 gets flagged after his helmet comes off; he argues with the referee about a penalty for a while and then gets flagged for saying something to the referee.

The hit rate on non-obvious calls there is pretty bad.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best: Hudson Hawk

Khaleke Hudson had an underwhelming junior year, in some part due to shifts in duties that required him to play more like a traditional linebacker (e.g. trying to hold up against Wisconsin's ground game or trying to cover WRs) and less like his natural Viper position. He wasn't bad or anything, but after a record-setting sophomore campaign 2018 was a step back.

But in one of the more pleasant surprises of the season for the defense, Hudson has largely returned to his previous destructive self, even if the counting stats aren't quite there. Yes, he's still not great when asked to be your classic linebacker and can get a bit lost in coverage, but as a guy who can attack from the edge and keep runs tamped down, he's been great. And his blocked punt in this game (the 5th of his career), effectively ended the competitive part of the game for MSU; the doors sorta blew off when Michigan scored on the subsequent play. His presence will be missed next season, even if there are a number of viable options to fill the gap.

ELSEWHERE

Tom Van Haaren:

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- Michigan safety Josh Metellus was waving goodbye to Michigan State players after the Wolverines' 44-10 victory over the Spartans on Saturday. Metellus and his teammates took exception to the chippiness during the game and thought it was time for the Spartans to leave.

"I was telling them to go home," Metellus said. "It was time for them to leave and they didn't deserve to be in our stadium. I was trying to wave them goodbye because some of them wanted to stay on the field and it was our time to shine. We came out with the 'W' so we were just telling them to go home."

Baumgardner:

“Josh Gattis and the offensive staff really had this game plan wired,” Harbaugh said afterward. “They’d predicted what some of the adjustments were going to be in this game.

“And just about every one of them was right.”

All of this against Dantonio, who spent the better part of eight years giving Michigan absolute fits with his ability to call defense, turn under-recruited players into standouts and get everything to work exactly right against the Wolverines. Five years ago, Michigan limped out of East Lansing after Dantonio punched in an extra rushing touchdown, payback for the Wolverines shoving a tent stake into the Spartan Stadium grass. On that night, Oct. 25, 2014, MSU owned this rivalry. In every area.

That’s over.

This wasn’t John L. Smith bad. This was worse. Michigan State hasn’t taken a beating like this against Michigan since 2002, Bobby Williams’ last act in the rivalry. The game where MSU’s soon-to-be fired coach was asked whether he’d lost his team, and replied: “I don’t know.”

Orion Sang:

Shea Patterson said something that was startlingly accurate after Michigan football's 44-10 win over Michigan State on Saturday afternoon.

"Usually it’s kind of the other way around," he said. "Usually the defense is the one to thank and everything."

Ronnie Bell has everything but a touchdown. Maize and Blue Nation. MGoFish. Sap's Decals. Hoover Street Rag. Touch the Banner.

Comments

Blue and Joe

November 18th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^

He had every right to and I think many of us felt the same. The way this year started had the same feeling as the OSU game last year. All the excitement and anticipation was followed by a giant wet fart and you're left thinking "if not now, when?" Yeah, it was probably unrealistic and unfair, but I don't blame anyone for feeling that way.

champswest

November 18th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^

Well, I kind of do blame folks for “calling it” way too early. There is a tendency here and on other blogs (I’m looking at you, UMHoops), to give up on coaches and players way to early. If a team takes an early season loss or two or if a player isn’t in the rotation by his sophomore year, we are ready to throw in the towel and write off said player/season/coach.

Sometimes players improve and sometimes teams and seasons can get turned around.

befuggled

November 18th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^

Some of Bo's best seasons came after a couple of early-season losses.

The 1980 and 1988 seasons where he won his first and second Rose Bowl are the two that come to mind. In 1980 they looked terrible against Northwestern and lost close game to decent but not great Notre Dame and South Carolina teams; in 1988 they (sigh) blew a 16-point lead to one of those great Miami (NTM) teams and on a (sigh) missed field goal to eventual (sigh) national champion Notre Dame. Both years they were Big Ten champs and won the Rose Bowl.

Newton Gimmick

November 18th, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^

I think it's right to just say it: Brian had a bad read on this season -- both the high expectations that a new offense will click immediately, then 'BPONE' or whatever when it doesn't, immediately.  He is expected to see things the average fan doesn't, and to understand how a new offense evolves, including the time-table (e.g. Urban Meyer's claim that it takes six or so game weeks.) 

This isn't to pile on Brian, but he sets the emotional tone and this place becomes insufferable when the doomsayers rule after any bad performance, and any attempts at context (or, yes, perspective) get negged to death.  It would be nice if we learned from these kind of mistakes, but if we lose to OSU the usual suspects will be crowing that we need to hire Mike Leach or PJ Fleck or whoever won a game that day.

CLord

November 19th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^

While it is nice that we have thumped our two big rivals, we may still very likely lose on the road to a very good Indiana team, and lose yet again to an incredible Ohio State team.

 Perhaps it is a little early to bang Brian up and pat each other on the back about how great our team is.

Enjoy the win but there is work ahead.

Big Brown Jug

November 18th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^

Michigan's first six games were:

 

MTSU: an offensive malaise that didn't get put away until the second half

Army: a potentially catastrophic near-loss at home

Wisconsin: an uncompetitive blowout loss

Rutgers: Rutgers

Iowa: a 10-3 home fart fest

Illinois: a potentially catastrophic near-loss after blowing a giant second half lead

 

That's half the  season with three main rivals and Penn State yet to play. I was justifiably hoping for bowl eligibility at that point.  

ijohnb

November 18th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^

I'm just saying we did not almost lose the game.

I think that Brian's biggest oversight this season in terms of his "feels" was his pretty strong dismissal of the progress that was shown in the second half of that Penn State game.  I thought it was pretty clear that half was going to be turning point in the season and there was no discussion of that very substantial momentum change in the pod or the game recap that week.  Instead he went in the "publish shitty email from drunk fan on the front page of the blog" direction.  I imagine that is a column he would like to have back.

stephenrjking

November 18th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^

C'mon. I was pleased with how the team played in the second half, and there were signs that things could be nice, but this is not a "moral victory" program. Michigan nearly beat Penn State, but only nearly. The loss essentially ended any hope of a division title, and even with recent blowout wins over Notre Dame and MSU, this season ends with a game against an all-time dominant OSU program and a bowl game. 

Which is to say, there's a good chance that this season ends just as badly as last season. I don't think anyone looks back with fondness at the second half of the PSU game if this is the case.

Right now this team is still in a worse position than the team was last year when we were, just like this year, trucking good teams at home, except with playoff hopes and a perfect conference record.

Could things finish differently? I certainly hope so. The Penn State second half may indeed be remembered as our own "defeat with dignity" moment if the team somehow accomplishes the unthinkable in 12 days. But I'll wait until that happens to draw further conclusions. 

 

ijohnb

November 18th, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^

Lucky for us, football programs last longer than 1 season! 

Yes, it will be disappointing if we don't beat Ohio State, but the Penn State second half was the springboard moment for all timers against ND and MSU and we have a chance to beat Ohio State and possibly go to the Rose Bowl.  That would be a huge season, beating three primary historic rivals in one season.  Even if we don't beat Ohio State, this has been a very nice rebound and is a good set up for the future of the program.

I don't know how far back you want to go to verify, probably not very, but I believed at the time that the Penn State second half would be a turning point in the season and said so often.  Thus far it looks like that is certainly correct.  The team, and importantly, the coach, came back to life in that second half.  I remember that comeback fondly even though we did lose. 

It is when I started to believe again.  Perhaps you saw it differently.

stephenrjking

November 18th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^

That's a fine prediction that looks quite good. I hope it's one that you can continue to tout for years due to results the rest of the way. I think it's unfair to expect others to have the same expectations, though. 

I don't think this season looks good, or the program trend looks promising, if we lose to OSU again this year. 

"That's not fair, though, OSU is great this year, it's not reasonable to demand Michigan beat them."

It is reasonable to expect to beat OSU once in five tries. Michigan lost its margin of error when they choked away winnable games in 16 and 17 and didn't bother showing up when they had superior talent in 18. 

Newton Gimmick

November 18th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

Got beat by a very talented team that was better prepared =/= "didn't bother showing up"

These attempted mind-readings are the worst kind of analysis.  If points worked I would knock you down to 20,072,493.

Also, if OSU is historically good this year and we lose a close game, the program trend could be positive even if the desired results are not quite there yet.  Mack Brown lost to Oklahoma five straight times, then won it all the next season. 

bronxblue

November 18th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^

Everyone is allowed his or her opinion on the season; I get the sentiment that being consistently a step below OSU isn't the end goal for Michigan.  But how good another team is is sorta out of Michigan's control.  And I'd argue they didn't choke away 2017; they somehow had a lead against OSU with John O'Korn as their QB.  The fact they only lost by a little is impressive, as weird as that is to say.

Also, even if they beat OSU they are mathematically out of contention.  They'll get a better meaningless bowl game, I guess.  But let's say they beat OSU, does that necessarily mean they are any closer to beating them consistently?  Purdue and Iowa have big wins recently and I wouldn't bank on those being reproducible.

JBLPSYCHED

November 18th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^

This is a completely reasonable take on things. This season doesn't look good; it's Year 5 and we're still searching for an identity on offense. Yes, we have looked good the past three games and yes, it feels great to beat down ND and MSU, no question about that. But playing well in high stakes games, especially on the road, or anywhere against OSU, is a whole different story. Can we beat Indiana (as we should, if we're rolling now) and OSU? Of course. Will we? After last year I'm not counting on it. In fact, if it happens, I expect it to feel surreal before it feels great.

Mo Better Blues

November 20th, 2019 at 8:07 AM ^

Couldn’t agree more. I understand that for players and fans, you want to win everything right now — totally, me too. But like Harbaugh said in his press conference when taking the job, it’s like building a house. He’s trying to build a program capable of withstanding/playing with/beating the Ohio States of the world. That’s basically the same as saying you want to compete with Alabama every year — that’s a tough job. This year’s home improvement project was installing a more dynamic offense so when OSU starts to put up points — in a game you were favored to win, in Columbus — you can return fire. It was bound to be a big project. 

Sure, I was in MAX BPONE mode after Wisconsin, but then I asked my doctor about Perspectivex and realized we were obviously suffering transition costs and the accrued emotional weariness of decades of crushing disappointment — and that Jim Harbaugh’s a fierce competitor and great coach that isn’t going to rest until he gets the job done. It was *specifically* the Illinois game when I got Michiwoke and was like, “hey, we just put this team away with ease when things got a little close. That’s a good sign. The offense is starting to click. This is what I expected wins to look like this year with the defense not being as dominant.”

It was the Illinois game that convinced me a win in Happy Valley was very possible. Didn’t happen, but absent yet another ref screwfest, I think it would have. Then you watch the Notre Dame and Staee ass-beatings and you say, “well, this is more like it”. I’d much rather lose a game or two or three, (shit, we’ve had 20 years of them!), this year and have a modernized, aggressive offense and consistently stout defense at the end of it all.

I’m loving where we are as a team right now. We look lethal. And while I think the Buckeyes are the best team in college football this year and have been from the start — they were in 1969, too.

Mgoczar

November 18th, 2019 at 3:38 PM ^

I disagree with this take. Yes M may lose to OSU yet again but for a few posters like Bronxblue and I (go back and check history) saw improvements in this team when everyone was straight up shitting on them. 

 

And last year M beat MSU 21-7. Run heavy, body blow offense. I for one am glad this offense is finally speed in space. There is a better chance than last year that M may take down OSU. 

So no, while record may be same etc, the offense is decidedly heading the way of exciting.

TrueBlue2003

November 18th, 2019 at 5:15 PM ^

No one should have claimed moral victory over the PSU game but there's a difference between that and parsing out the things that mean something for the future such that one could be both really disappointed in the outcome but pleased with what the performance indicated for the future.

The complaints early on were that Michigan wasn't doing what it did well last year which would have been fine if what they were doing was also working but it wasn't.

Michigan brought back a bunch of things they did well last year against Illinois and racked up 350 yards in the first half so that was already super encouraging even before the PSU game. If not for a couple fluky fumbles they would have had even more yards on the game, 56 points (give or take) and an easy cover.

Then they went out and kind of dominated PSU for 417 yards in a white out game at night - an environment that's usually brutal on offenses.  They did this by finally busting out a screen game, running Patterson some more, and building on what they had done the week before, etc.

It was pretty clear even at that point, this offense was mostly to where we expected it to be.

Usually Brian is good at discounting bad luck (fluky fumbles, bad officiating, abnormally high number of dropped balls, etc) to see the underlying things that are better predictors of the future than outcomes.

Some combination of BPONE and the usual eye rolls from readers that don't understand that the outcome is not as important as the process when it comes to evaluating future expectations prevented Brian from saying, you know, this is actual progress and bodes well for the future.

jmblue

November 18th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^

Rutgers: Rutgers

Iowa: a 10-3 home fart fest

Illinois: a potentially catastrophic near-loss after blowing a giant second half lead

The first three games weren't good, to be sure.  But while Rutgers is indeed Rutgers, coming back from an embarrassing loss to win 52-0, even if it's against a patsy, tells you something about the team's state of mind.

Iowa was ugly offensively but showed that we had a competent defense.  It carried the team against a decent opponent. 

Illinois got a little hairy, thanks to the turnovers, but winning a Big Ten road game by 17 generally isn't bad.  It certainly looked better one week later when Illinois beat Wisconsin, and a lot better now that the Illini are bowl-bound.

Newton Gimmick

November 18th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^

"Is this where all the people who apparently had faith all along (bullshit) come and call out people who were rightfully criticizing the team after Wisconsin?"

Plenty of people called out the doom-sayers at the time. 

Criticizing the team's performance in a game is one thing.  Projecting no improvement with a new OC and predicting a season doomed to 5-6 losses?  That was fucking stupid. 

TIMMMAAY

November 18th, 2019 at 7:32 PM ^

I have been calling people out all year. It's like most of the fanbase seriously expected the offense to just hum out of the gate. That was never going to happen. The only thing I'm disappointed about so far this year is the loss to PSU. Half of my anger there is directed towards the fucking travesty of a reffing job it was in the first half. 

Alumnus93

November 18th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^

After Wisc I reiterated that Brown's D is unsound, and that I prefer Durkins D, and I still do. Durkin's D could get shutouts, somehow Browns gets gashed by even crappy offenses, and on road it often collapses the first 25 minutes.   We had no shot vs a thick team like Wisconsin....maybe the sole issue is lack of DTs.

bronxblue

November 18th, 2019 at 3:57 PM ^

It's weirdly also the place where people who wanted everyone fired after 2 games and were calling for fucking Mike Locksley as OC might have been proven wrong and instead of, you know, not giving a shit because it's the internet instead try to argue they weren't over-reacting.

Nobody was 100% right or 100% wrong, but BPONE was annoying when it was created and became this constant drumbeat around here for people who couldn't handle unpaid college students not performing to the level they expected.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 18th, 2019 at 10:48 PM ^

It was not created, so much as it was a term coined for a feeling we all get at one point or another watching sports.  It caught on because it resonated with a lot of people who said, yeah, that's how I feel watching these games sometimes.  Sometimes people misuse it or let it take on a life of its own, but nobody invented BPONE any more than anyone invented happiness or frustration.

albapepper

November 18th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^

Fans had every right to be disappointed after the Wisconsin game, but not to the extent that I saw. 

 

This has been a big change in offense (and even defense to some extent) and it was always going to take some time and actual game experience for it to come together. 

 

The annoy vocal minority of fans who were calling for Harbaugh's head after that Wisconsin game are the ones who are having to eat it now.

 

Let us who didn't overreact enjoy the loudmouths being wrong lol.

AlbanyBlue

November 18th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^

Of course, it's a message board....the "I told you so" crowd has to come out.

For myself, I didn't expect that the run offense would be transformed, or that McGrone and a part-time Dax would solidify the D. As to the second part, those players should have been in at the start of the season.

But I should have realized that the defense would improve even more as key pieces returned from injury and got up to speed.

Hey, like I've said, I'm glad to be wrong.

wolverine1987

November 19th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^

Brian was exactly right then, all of the facts pointed to that. And he's right now to feel better--the facts changed. And overall he's right--barring a miracle, we will finish 9-3 this year. That is BPONE worthy. 9-3 is a disappointing season, period. Even 10-2 with an OSU miracle and no B!G title is below season hopes/expectations (not mine, I'm fine with that, but still)

Leaders And Best

November 18th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^

Brian hit on a point that is missed on the MSU job: Spartan fans now expect the success of 2011-2015 when history of their program and the current landscape of the Big Ten East suggest otherwise. The expectations of the MSU fanbase are unrealistic, and following Dantonio right now would make this job radioactive to most smart coaches with other options.

And to add to MSU's problems, Minnesota rotates on to their schedule in 2022 to replace Northwestern for four (or six if the current pattern holds) years of crossover games. If PJ Fleck sticks around, that could be a problem.

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 18th, 2019 at 2:31 PM ^

It's quite amazing how the MSU fanbase expectations changed so quickly.  Or maybe it's just changed for those who wen there/grew up with those times.  I think the older fans have still enjoyed the run of success with knowing some of the limitations of the program.  It even happens with recruiting.  They had a huge unsustainable hit rate on lower recruited guys, and then just expected every 3 star to be a first rounder without any evidence to actually back that up.  I think a regression to the mean in their natural talent based on recruiting is what you're seeing now.