Special Teams & Wrapup

Submitted by Brian on August 29th, 2008 at 1:43 PM

Return Game

Rating: 3

breaston

As soon as Steve Breaston took his talents to the NFL the return game imploded. Raise your hand if you’re surprised. Dammit—I have to raise my hand since I gave this a “3” last year, too.

Sure-handed, slow Greg Mathews was the primary punt returner with a little Donovan Warren mixed in; the duo was terrible, ending the year 79th. Mathews has been relieved of those duties this year and the job is tentatively Warren’s with slot electron Martavious Odoms pushing from behind. This should improve with two of the best athletes on the team taking up the reigns; hopefully the increased walk-on program will help fill in some gaps on special teams.

Kick returns were even worse. Michigan was 110th as Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor alternated runs directly into defenders. Freshman tailbacks Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw have been mentioned as likely starters here, though it may take a game or two to blood them before they assume the roles. Shaw and McGuffie are fast as hell and there should be a rebound here, too.

Kicker

Rating: 4

After inexplicably sitting for a good portion of the season, Kickin’ Competency Lopata came on and hit 11 of 12. He’s basically Garrett Rivas, short on leg strength and dodgy outside 40 yards but a machine inside 40. This qualifies as a pretty good collegiate kicker.

Punter

Rating: 3.

zoltan

I hate to say this about beloved Space Emperor, but Zoltan was quite conceivable in his second year as a starter. Though he was Michigan’s best player against Ohio State with 12(!) punts for 551(!!!) yards—almost 46 yards each—in his other outings he barely averaged 40 yards a kick. He was 53rd in average yardage and had almost 60% of his punts returned (that’s a lot). He was a Space Prince at best.

Here goes the standard “consistency” bit: if Zoltan can sustain the sort of performance he turned in against Ohio State he’s a Ray Guy candidate and likely winner. He’s always had ridiculous punter-get-drafted upside.

Special Teams in Summary

Kicker should remain static; the return game should improve, possibly significantly as Rodriguez continues to pack the roster with players like those guys named “Moss” who used to play for Miami. Zoltan should be at least average and if he can find consistency to be consistently consistent could be the Heisman winner. You heard it here first, Beanie: Zoltan The Inconceivable is coming for your trophy.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

2007 Int + Fumb + Sacks + Int - Fumb - Sacks -
0.15 (41st) 14 15 2.46(33rd) 14 13 2.17 (67th)

In marked contrast to lat year’s TO margin heuristic—which foresaw a plunge from 4th nationally to something still positive but far less spectacular and may have presaged some of Michigan’s difficulties—there’s not much to see here. I expect this to be solidly negative this year what with the n00b quarterbacks and the line and the no Mike Hart, but Scott Shafer’s GOT what plants CRAVE so it could be around even again. Don’t think it will have a major impact.

Position Switch Starters

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

Two weeks ago John Ferrara was a backup defensive lineman. Today he’s pushing David Molk for a starting job on the line. Even if he doesn’t see the field the lack of confidence in Molk is apparent.

You could throw Brandon Harrison in here, as last year he was kind of a corner and this year he’s going to be the strong safety, but Harrison’s bounced to and from safety his entire career and will likely find himself in that familiar spot over the slot receiver. His responsibilities aren’t likely to change.

Toney Clemons is listed behind Martavious Odoms; his presence at slot receiver despite being way too tall for the Lollipop Guild—it is a guild!—indicates an obvious lack of depth there.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case

Rock bottom can be pretty low when you’re shoehorning a bunch of guys into a system they weren’t recruited for and you’ve had a ton of attrition at a couple key spots. Michigan is flirting with disaster on the offensive line and at quarterback. An injury or general suckage by one or more of the five new guys they’re counting on at those positions could send the offense into an epic tailspin.

The defense and some random plays from the exciting skill position players should keep Michigan afloat; games against the two MAC schools, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Michigan State should all be at least reasonably winnable even in the worst case. 4-8 seems like the bottom-bottom.

Best Case

There’s only one game that looks utterly unwinnable—Ohio State—at the moment. There’s no way the offense doesn’t blow two more, though. 9-3.

Final Verdict

I am heartened by the idea that Rich Rodriguez’s offense doesn’t place much emphasis on 15 yard outs or deep bombs or seam routes. I am further heartened by the media’s near-exclusive focus on offense and players lost when compiling their preseason guesses. And I’m delighted by the idea Michigan beat actual football teams last year with Mike Debord calling plays for Ryan Mallett.

Not heartening is game against a Mountain West team that would be a pick-em on a neutral field, though the Vegas wiseguys initially set the line at M –7 before everyone bet it down. Nor is it heartening to miss Iowa and Indiana in a year that it would be really nice to dodge Wisconsin and Illinois. But that’s life.

For a glimpse at what this offense might be like I go back to the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005. With Jake Long injured the line was a patchwork assemblage of mediocre talent. Leo Henige had no knees and he started the whole year. The receiving corps was one sure-handed possession guy (Avant), one slot bastard par excellence (Breaston), and one zippy freshman (Manningham). This year those guys are Mathews, Odoms, and Stonum with potential bonus contributions from Clemons, Hemingway, Savoy, and Robinson. Mike Hart was out or limping most of the year; Kevin Grady and Max Martin took turns fumbling before Jerome Jackson finally took the reins.

The big advantage that team had was Chad Henne even though that was the year Tacopants reeled in something like 150 balls. Any illusions 2005 Chad Henne was a realistic ceiling for Michigan’s quarterbacks this year went out the window as I watched the turnover abortion that was the NC State-South Carolina game. We have no idea how bad it can get. Yet.

Still, 2008 wins by a significant margin at the skill positions, is close to a push on the OL, and has a significant advantage in playcalling, scheme, and proximity to Mike Barwis. I think a comparable season is realistic, and while that’s not good at all—55th total offense, 45th scoring—it’s not a disaster zone.

Meanwhile, the defense returns eight-ish starters from a defense statistically superior to 2005’s meh unit. They have also “enjoyed” their proximity to Mike Barwis. Scott Shafer seems a rising star in the defensive coordination business, a maniacal blitzer instinctively aware of the little game theory details that are the heart of gameday coaching.

It’s reasonable to expect improvement both statistically and actually, which would make this team better than 2005’s 7-5 record, especially because that Notre Dame team was 9-3 and this one won’t be and a bowl game against Nebraska is included in that record.

That’s the idea, anyway.

OOC
8/30 Utah Tossup
9/6 Miami (OH) Probable Win
9/13 @ Notre Dame Tossup
10/11 Toledo Probable Win
Conference
9/27 Wisconsin Probable loss
10/4 Illinois Probable loss
10/18 @ Penn State Probable loss
10/25 Michigan State Tossup
11/1 @ Purdue Probable win
11/8 @ Minnesota Probable win
11/15 Northwestern Probable win
11/22 Ohio State Probable loss
Absent: Iowa, Indiana

Take all the “probables” with a grain of salt except OSU, Minnesota, and the MAC schools. I didn’t want to write “tossup” eight times.

Really, the answer here is “hell if I know.” There are too many variables to predict anything at a level resembling confidence. I have enough faith in the defense and the little bastards carrying the ball to think the team will be towards the upper end of the reasonable range. 8-4 is the pick. 

Let’s get it on.

Comments

hat

August 29th, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^

Honestly, I never thought our return game was all that great even with Breaston.  That was through no fault of his, but the other 10 guys on the field.  Our blocking, on both punt and kick returns, was dreadful.  How many times did Breaston get decked immediately after catching a punt?   And with the exception of the Texas game, it seemed like we never gave him a seam to run through on KRs.  If he made it past the 30, it was all him.  I always got the impression that Carr placed little emphasis on the return game (note that we also haven't blocked a punt in years), and I'm excited to see what a new staff can do with that.   

Mark682

August 29th, 2008 at 2:19 PM ^

It seems they did something right for Breaston to break all the returning records. But I think that was mostly due to Breaston's crazy speed. I don't remember Michigan ever being a special-teams heavy weight, hopefully something is done about special teams so we don't always need some freak (Howard, Breaston) to make the speacial-teams exciting and dangerous.

JeremyB

August 29th, 2008 at 2:26 PM ^

Yeah, "WE DOUBLED THE GUNNERS!" was usually written just like that, in caps with exclamation points, as if to express surprise and delight.

We can't get it on until the preview, Brian. I haven't had anything to cackle with knowing glee about in a long time.

Wolverine in H… (not verified)

August 29th, 2008 at 2:04 PM ^

Move you damned hour hands.  Move! 

I'm going home to mow my lawn, and maybe my neighbors'.  If I don't do something with this UM-induced frenzy, I'm going to start some ill-advised home improvement project that starts with a sledgehammer and declines into emergency plumber calls.

9-3.  Losses to OSU, Wisky and (gulp) State.  The Spartans finally get off their 6-year bad karma ride for the extra second game.

 

 

 

Michigan Arrogance

August 29th, 2008 at 2:10 PM ^

too much potential for injury on the OL. 1-2 more dinged up guys and the OL goes off the cliff. no QBs. L: OSU, PSU, Wisc, and 2 out of of ill, ND, msu and utah. i'd say 8-4, but again.... zirbel is down for the year and hyuge is out till next week at best.

The Other Brian

August 29th, 2008 at 4:57 PM ^

I agree with this. Illinois is talented - Juice made strides last year - but they are still in building mode, and when you're a team like that, you don't just replace J Leman and Rashard Mendenhall. Those two were far and away the best players for the Illini last year, and them not being there this year will be very noticeable when watching Illinois games. I'd put the Illinois game as a tossup instead of a probable loss.

Don

August 29th, 2008 at 3:15 PM ^

including one non-conf loss. We'll lose to OSU but will be competitive. Will lose one game we should have won, but we will upset at least one favored team. Convincing bowl victory ends season on up note.

SpartanDan

August 29th, 2008 at 4:50 PM ^

And I was so looking forward to the triple-nested MSU preview. Probably would have been more informative (and more realistic) than anywhere else I've found.

As for Michigan, I'd guess 7-5. OSU and Wisconsin will beat you, and I figure .500 is pretty likely against the rest of the non-Minnesota, non-Purdue, and non-MAC teams (Northwestern is worth mentioning if only because a shootout is probably bad news for you, and a Northwestern game that doesn't end with someone at 50 points just isn't a Northwestern game).

That assumes the OL stays reasonably healthy, though. Even the greatest quarterbacks in history wouldn't be able to do much if they're on the turf before they finish their dropback - and though your QBs probably aren't Jimmy Clausen-esque disasters, they aren't the second coming of John Elway either. If 2005 was the Year of Infinite Pain, losing another OL or two early could make this the Year of Aleph-1 Pain. [Yes, I'm a geek.]

MechEng97

August 29th, 2008 at 6:00 PM ^

yeah 7-5 is my prediction too....To be modified after actually seeing said quick bastards running with the ball.  I still like that Defense is our apparant strenght 'cause when it's the Offense it hasn't worked out too well lately.  So if the D delivers it will be a respectible to good year, it not we could have an interesting one...

Blue Durham

August 29th, 2008 at 9:15 PM ^

If Michigan wins, it will be less than a day before someone states that 10-2 (or better) is conceivable.

If Michigan loses, it will be less than a day before someone says OMG we'll be lucky to win 4 (or less) games.

Yeah, I know, not much of a predicition.

Oh, I will go out on a limb, 9-4 (I include bowl game - prolongs the drama for me to be wrong).

HKBlue

August 29th, 2008 at 11:24 PM ^

Brian, I think you are underrating Utah and ND and overrating Illinois and PSU (and maybe Wisconson too).  I think the hardest games will be the early ones and that the team will improve significantly as the season progresses.  Illinois is simply not good and by PSU the O-Line/QBs should be better.

I think we open 1-3 and then run the table until OSU.  I just pray we don't drop one of the early games to the MAC.  That is possible and would make for an ugly season.