Signs of Strife

Submitted by Brian on March 5th, 2013 at 3:34 PM

3/1/2013 – Michigan 4, Ferris State 1 – 13-18-2, 10-15-2 CCHA
3/2/2013 – Michigan 1, Ferris State 1 (shootout win), 13-18-3, 10-15-3 CCHA

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it was messy, like we like it (MGoBlue)

After the Bowling Green meltdown from myself and the hockey team I vowed I was done talking about them. They'd just gotten blown out by BG and topped it off by letting a dangerous knee-to-knee hit slide without so much as a shove. They sucked, which was bad enough. That they did nothing when a guy wearing an A was on the ice after a cheap shot in an already-lost game was the end.

I spent the following two months of the season watching them in a depressed, cynical fugue state, dreading the ticket in my hand that condemned me to watch them get swept by Alaska for the first time since Alaska was a thing, not really caring if we missed half of a first period against Western because the waitress couldn't figure out how to change the channel, content to pick up twitter updates on the Ohio State series. I kept thinking of better things to do with 500 dollars, like use it to set my beard on fire.

Friday, I went to the ticket drawer, pulled out not one but two Ferris State tickets, realized that the home-and-home I expected was a two game home series, and sighed.

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Friday started off rough with a penalty 30 seconds in; Michigan only killed it off with a couple of fine point blank saves from Steve Racine and then suffered another shift of heavy Ferris pressure. I was just prepping to enter fugue state when Michigan scored; Zach Hyman and young Lynch and Selman cobbled out a goal from some hard work. Guptill won a board battle and Andrew Copp made a cross-ice pass that Deblois buried, and Ferris got chippy.

Jacob Trouba probably got speared at some point, and another opponent knee met a Michigan player dangerously. This time there wasn't even time for me to put the Bowling Green game together with that incident before Copp came over and let that Ferris guy know he was marked. Roughing penalties followed; Trouba took an extra two late with Michigan up four. Michigan had incidentally dominated a 4-1 win, outshooting a decent team by 14. It was fun.

Saturday's ticket felt like an opportunity instead of a burden, and Copp—now ensconced in his role as the #1 center—started screwing with Ferris before the puck even dropped. He assisted on a first period goal, drew two penalties, intercepted stretch passes like he was playing for a Ron Mason Michigan State outfit, and spent large chunks of the game giving anyone who looked at a Michigan player funny the business. A pissed-off Trouba picked up a misconduct. I grew little grudges against Ferris State players, and was incensed by after the whistle business.

Michigan again significantly outshot Ferris. Racine stoned a couple of breakaways and then three straight shootout attempts. The team mobbed him for an unnaturally long time after the last one.

It felt like a team again, and Yost a place to be. It was Michigan hockey: end to end, pissy, ref-baiting, out-shooting, chippy fun. Michigan has always been a team with its heart on its sleeve, prone to dumb penalties of aggression that I used to loathe. They are far superior to the sleepwalk of the last year. By the end of Saturday's tumultuous draw Ferris's goalie was out in overtime and Yost was on its feet, moaning and screeching, full of hate and joy and fear. The new building seemed like the old one for a bit. Finally.

I don't know if Racine is going to keep up this level of performance or if Trouba's going to stick around or if Copp can really be the emotional center of a team as just a sophomore. I do have something to say about them that isn't randomly assorted swear words now. It's hard to see them winning two series and two at the Joe to extend that tourney streak, but at least I'll be pulling for them instead of silently hating everything. At least I've got a reason to renew.

Bullets still mostly about next year

Gongshow forever. I don't actually know if the refereeing in the Big Ten is going to be any better, but it's fitting that the last ten seconds of regular-season CCHA play saw Ferris State get a breakaway thanks to having seven guys on the ice. Here are four:

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Here are two more:

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This is okay since the goalie is out. This guy…

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Not so much. Racine stoned the guy anyway.

Racine, come on baby. I was hoping he'd pop that save percentage over .900 with that weekend but he remains stuck at .892. Nonetheless, he was probably the star of the weekend if it wasn't Copp. Two goals against and many quality saves.

The one goal on Saturday was a little strange—still not sure if that was deflected or just unexpected—and is a bit concerning. Racine has had games like that where he makes a bunch of good stops and then lets some bizarre stuff in; it's a major weakness.

Despite it, the kid looked good… confident post-to-post, able to come out on shooters when it's appropriate, and seemingly technically sound. I was watching Saturday's game with a couple of guys who have played the position as kids and on the beer league level and they also thought he'd come a long way. My amateur impressions are that I see a ton of places where pucks can slide through Rutledge, and Racine provides not only a bigger guy but one with fewer gaps as he moves around.

Michigan should still try to find another goalie next year; I think Racine has a decent chance of developing into a quality guy. If he does, Josh Blackburn for president.

Copp. At the beginning of the year I said I thought he could be more than a fourth-line PK guy like the Swistaks and Fardigs before him who came from the end of the USNTDP bench. I didn't think he'd be centering the top line by the end of the year. I cannot overstate how excellent he looked this weekend: he played smart, made nice passes, took a couple of high-quality shots, and seems to have become the on-ice leader of the team. Not bad for a late add.

I'm guessing the split between football and hockey—he was Skyline's QB—held him back and now that he's finally focusing full time on one he's making a leap. At 7-9-16 he's ten points off the team leaders, but that's with very little PP time and after spending big chunks of the year down the depth chart. He's making a late-year leap and I bet he sees those points go up a lot next year.

Nieves. Another guy who is rounding into form as his freshman season comes to a close. A lot of guys who become stars start out slowly as freshmen and then emerge in the second half of their first year—Palushaj, Pacioretty (though he never came back), and Tambellini spring to mind. He's showing that he may be a guy Michigan can lean on heavily next year.

Next year. This was discussed in a UV last week, but it's all about offseason departures. Michigan loses Sparks, Lynch The Elder, Treais, Moffie, and Rohrkemper. Only three of those guys really play important roles. Sparks and Rohrkemper get scratched a lot. Moffie is the 4/5 defenseman if Clare is healthy. Lynch is okay but eminently replaceable. Only Treais might sting. Most schools are going to lose players more important than one guy with 20-something points, though.

But what with the rampant rumors about dissention in the ranks, an already-bulging roster, and a recruiting class that could have as many as eleven kids in it, defections are all but inevitable. Merrill, Trouba and Bennett will have NHL options; Di Guiseppe, Guptill, and Nieves will also. Other guys may just want to leave.

Michigan is committed to bringing in at least seven of those guys: forwards Evan Allen, Bryson Cianfrone, JT Compher, Alex Kile, and Tyler Motte plus defensemen Michael Downing and Nolan DeJong. Hockey is an equivalency sport so not all of those guys are necessarily on full rides and Michigan lost Daniel Milne midseason, but if they're going to keep the roster at its currently rather packed level they are going to suffer a defection. If they don't, they will carry nine defensemen into next year. If they suffer lots, then Max Shuart, Spencer Hyman, and Kevin Lohan may also join up, and then there's the goalie situation.

Michigan is a team that could go into next year featuring Trouba, Merrill, Bennett, and projected first-rounder Downing as their top four defensemen… or they could lose half of those guys and end up icing Mike Szuma quite a bit.

Meanwhile at forward, Compher is a high-end prospect expected to go in the middle of the first round; Allen and Motte are second and fourth in NTDP scoring. Cianfrone was projected as a first-round OHL pick before his Michigan commitment but has struggled in the USHL with a 3-14-17 line in 39 games. An emergency appendectomy may have something to do with that, he is small (5'8"), and he is young, but it looks like his star has fallen. Kile on the other hand has put up a PPG this year with Green Bay. At least one or two of those guys will probably end up on a big line.

Here it's less precipitous a dropoff if only because none of the forwards are near Merrill or Trouba's level, but Guptill's been playing well of late and it would suck to lose Nieves just as he starts rounding into a player.

In any case, find or grow a goalie and the talent will be there for a major bounce-back year as long as there's a guy to grab folks by the scruff of their neck. Please hockey Jesus, don't let Trouba's only year at Michigan be this floundering one.

Comments

stephenrjking

March 5th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

I would love Trouba to come back, but I just don't see it. I'll just be happy if he never, ever plays for Kitchener.

I'm not seeing a playoff run out of this team--the Hunwick run a few years ago featured a team that was very inconsistent but capable of playing great hockey when it put things together, which it did for six games. I don't know that this team has ever put that kind of hockey together, even on weekends like this where things go well.

But then, I didn't expect anything when Michigan went to Munn for a best-of-three, either.

AnthonyC

March 5th, 2013 at 4:10 PM ^

I think the key is avoiding having to play a series at Notre Dame. I think it would take an upset in one of the first round series but Michigan can take Western at Lawson, I don't think they can take ND in South Bend.

I do think Racine will be solid going forward. Played both games without allowing a goal straight up - the Friday goal was heavily assisted by a guy interfering with him on a PP from a BS penalty and the Saturday goal appeared to be a strange deflection. For a guy seeing the puck so well to not react on that its pretty safe to assume it didn't beat him clean.

My main concern is that when Michigan plays Miami or ND and they inevitably give up the 3-5 grade A scoring chances from sloppy back checking or defensive giveaways will Racine stop those and will Michigan be able to score enough to win.

I'd still give a CCHA title about a 10% chance, they're still the most talented team in the conference, it's just a matter of working out of the position of disadvantage and being able to make less mistakes against potentially 3 different well-coached teams. Highly unlikely but I wouldn't be shocked.

gwkrlghl

March 5th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^

I love it. But colleg hockey is just 20 years of crushing my soul. Between all of the OT losses in the tournament followed up by so many good players leaving early, it just takes years off my life. I think we've lost 4 of the last 5 years in OT in the tournament. Wouldn't surprise me if we lost in OT in the CCHA playoffs this year.

Then every year I think "Look at all the players we have coming back!" and then we inevitably lose 1 or 2 of the best of them. I hope we can keep t least 1 of 2 of Trouba and Merrill (not holding my breath) and maybe 2 of 3 of Nieves, Di Giuseppe, and Guptill. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 4+ guys though. Realisitcally, I could see any of PDG, Trouba, Merill, Nieves, or Guptill leaving

Sac Fly

March 5th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^

The Rangers have a ton of talent in the system right now and at his height, he is way too skinny to make the jump to the pro game this year.

Sac Fly

March 5th, 2013 at 6:08 PM ^

Di Giuseppe seems most likely to leave because of Peter Karmanos and his views of college hockey.

Guptill may have one more year because Dallas has been stockpiling talent in the minors, but I have no optimism regarding Merrill.

With the suspension and the injury, the last two years in Ann Arbor have been rough for Jon. I don't see any circumstance that brings him back for a fourth year.

Sac Fly

March 5th, 2013 at 6:48 PM ^

This freshman class coming in will be one of the best we have had in a long time.

JT Compher is a everything Michigan is lacking right now; defense, forechecking, penalty killing, and a grinding offensive style. Think about everything Copp does but better, like 1st round NHL draft better.

 

Kile was just supposed to be a checking forward until he exploded this year and captained the USHL top prospect team.

If he makes it to Ann Abor, which I don't know if he will, Evan Allen is going to be a superstar

JustGoBlue

March 5th, 2013 at 8:39 PM ^

I honestly can't say enough about him and I've been trying for weeks now.  I was at the games this weekend and it's been the first time in a while I've seen him and the team live.  I spent quite a bit of time watching him and how he interacts with the rest of the players and I think it's pretty clear that the team is quite a bit "his", the way he responds to them and they respond to him is great.  Like Brian, I immediately noticed when he immediately confronted the Ferris State player who just knee-d one of our players and was in his face.  He plays hard, plays good defense, plays good offense, he's just the complete package.  WIthout him, I'm not sure Michigan wins 10 games.  The more I watch him, the more sure I am he has to be a C next year, he already acts like one they might as well make it official.  I honestly think he might be as good a Captain as Ortmeyer and I only don't say better, because I'm not sure that's possible.  I'm not sure he'll even put up huge, piles and piles of points, but he'll get his share and I have a feeling that a lot of them will be of the "big" variety.

I get the feeling that he's working on, at least Trouba and possibly the other flight risks as well, to get them all to come back and Michigan manages to keep Trouba or (I won't even say and, but in my deepest darkest dreams I think it's remotely possible) Merrill and all of Guptill, PDG, Nieves, I think that'll in no small part due to Copp's efforts.  I realize I'm practically drooling everytime I speak of Copp, but damn, I like having that kid on my team.

As an aside, along with a few others, I really do think that this recruiting class, if it stays together, could replace the people that leave, regardless of who does.  As junior players, they're special.  Next year is a year to look forward to, regardless of what happens in the CCHA tournament or who leaves. 

Also, according to Matt Slovin on twitter (https://twitter.com/MattSlovin), NMU's leading scorer, Matt Thurber (6th in the CCHA with 6-26-32) is confirmed out for this weekend's series at Yost.

Sac Fly

March 5th, 2013 at 8:56 PM ^

Copp is the kind of player you need to have around your program. For a guy who was coming off a broken collarbone and was heading to the USHL, he has exceeded expectations from day 1.

Although I think he gets an A next year with DeBlois getting the C, he's going to accomplish great things by the time he leaves Ann Arbor.

JustGoBlue

March 6th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

Bennett doesn't get a C, I just don't think he'll get THE C.  Based on how too much of this year went/seemed/felt, the current leadership corp wasn't really getting it done.  I could see Red giving Bennett the next letter up, even just for appearances, but unless he's more spectacular than we've seen/thought, I have to think someone else will get a C also and that'll be the one that means more.

I think DeBlois is a really good candidate also and he's got two years on Copp, but there's just something special about Copp I think.  I guess I'm OK if he "only" gets an A next year, but I really believe good things are going to happen because of him.

BrownJuggernaut

March 6th, 2013 at 1:42 AM ^

It felt like a team again, and Yost a place to be. It was Michigan hockey: end to end, pissy, ref-baiting, out-shooting, chippy fun. Michigan has always been a team with its heart on its sleeve, prone to dumb penalties of aggression that I used to loathe. They are far superior to the sleepwalk of the last year. By the end of Saturday's tumultuous draw Ferris's goalie was out in overtime and Yost was on its feet, moaning and screeching, full of hate and joy and fear. The new building seemed like the old one for a bit. Finally.

This quote resonated with me. I remember watching early in the year and not seeing any of that. It makes you wonder about things. Well, I watched Friday night, and I liked a lot of what I saw. If Michigan goes out of the CCHA tournament, I want them going out like the way they played Friday night. If someone is going to beat Michigan hockey, they should have to beat Michigan hockey.