Seedwatch & Stuff: Down Goes Frazier-ish Teams

Submitted by Brian on February 26th, 2013 at 12:13 PM

one_fish_two_fish[1] Seedwatch

projection hazy, ask again later

An easier patch of schedule has stopped Michigan's losing business, stabilizing their seed. Meanwhile, two projected ones last week have gone down. Florida lost to Missouri on the road; Miami went down against Wake Forest for their first ACC loss.

The resulting brackets are uncertain about the top line for the first time in a while—Duke and Indiana are Bracket Matrix locks and then there is a ton of disagreement. Gonzaga, Michigan, Miami, Florida, Kansas, Louisville, Arizona, and even New Mexico get Bracket Matrix support, though a couple of those outliers are from dot blogspots (no offense to dot blogspots). Miami and the Zags get tentative nods in the hivemind. Crashing the Dance goes with Kansas and Florida, with Michigan in sixth.

On the other hand, Jerry Palm has dropped the Gators and 'Canes all the way to the three line and put them in a terrifying bracket featuring one-seed Michigan hypothetically staring down this gauntlet after an obligatory round one victory: VCU, Louisville, Florida. Yeesh.

Anyway, I'm eyeballing it and:

  • Gonzaga's good wins are against Oklahoma, KSU, and Oklahoma State. (They've played half of the Big 12.) They have losses against Illinois and Butler and have a super-easy conference schedule.
  • Kansas has a win against OSU, a sweep of KSU, a split against Okie State, and losses to MSU, Oklahoma, and TCU(!).
  • Florida has blowout wins over Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Marquette. They split with Mizzou and Arkansas, and lost to Arizona and K-State.
  • Arizona beat Miami, NCSU, and Florida in the nonconference schedule. They've got four Pac-12 losses and have not beaten a team headed to the tourney in conference save the OT opener against Colorado.
  • Miami beat MSU, NCSU and Duke. They swept UNC and beat Virginia. They lost to Arizona, Wake Forest, Indiana State, and Florida Gulf Coast. They had some injury early in the season that may have hampered them, but Florida Gulf Coast? Seriously?
  • Michigan beat Pitt, KSU, NCSU, split with OSU, lost at OSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, and MSU.
    If I'm the committee Michigan has the most understandable four losses—all these teams have four except the Zags—and has wins to go with anyone plus the attractive feature that no one battling it out for the #3 or #4 seed has beaten anyone they've lost to except Kansas. I am with Palm: if the season ended today they would be on the top line. It does not; Michigan will have to at least split the MSU and Indiana games to be projected a one before the Big Ten Tourney. Florida and Miami going down does give them some argument with a 3-1 record down the stretch.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Michigan, Kansas

Nonconference Watch

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ark bid: remote possibility

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Binghamton: January 19th. Central Michigan: also January 19th. All of these are still unchanged since last week.

Cleveland State lost 50-41 to Wright State last week and is headed for a 5-11 Horizon record. Bradley remains a 500-ish MVC team. Eastern Michiganwas in Bracket Busters? What the…? Eastern is a .500 MAC team. I'm so confused. (By the way, remember that Ray Lee kid people unearthed as a possible late Burke replacement? He played eight games early and hasn't since. It looks like they're going to redshirt him.)

Western was also in Bracket Busters, winning against Pacific. They're nowhere near an at-large bid even now, but they'll win their division in the MAC.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (21-7)

Notre Dame: L 51-42. @ St John's: W 63-47.

Played a Wisconsin special against Notre Dame, which we're defining as a sub-60 possession game in which neither team cracks a PPP. Pitt didn't even get 80% of the way there as they went 0/8 from three and got pounded on the boards. Rule: if Pitt gets pounded on the boards, they are going to lose.

As per usual when Pitt loses a game like this, a long stretch where their offense dies is the culprit. After taking a 28-24 lead with just over 16 minutes left, the Panthers scored six points over the next ten minutes.

The St John's win was a decent one against a .500 BE team. Pitt's excellent shooting D a came up against a team that can't shoot or rebound, and that was it.

SEEDWATCH: Dropped a spot on both sites we track here, down to a five—a tenuous five—on the Matrix and a six on CTD. Palm has them a 7.

Kansas State (23-5)

West Virginia: W 71-61. @ Texas: W 81-69. Texas Tech: W 75-55.

Three comfortable wins over teams K-State should beat. K State grabbed their usual ton of OREBs in all, shooting well inside the arc and turning the ball over a lot… you get the idea. Their PPP was 1.2 over the course of these games thanks to a ton of free throws and the shooting from two.

SEEDWATCH: Still a four on BM; CTD actually moved them down to a five. Palm says four.

North Carolina State (19-8)

FSU: W 84-66. @ North Carolina: L 76-65.

Florida State can't score with these guys this year, especially when TJ Warren is going nuts with 31 points on 18 shot equivalents and eight(!) offensive rebounds amongst NCSU's 21(!) total; the Wolfpack got back 58% of their misses. Game over, man. Florida State is absolutely terrible at rebounding, if you're curious.

Then North Carolina got its revenge. Too many turnovers for the Wolfpack and some ugly free-throw shooting—CJ Leslie was 0/4—doomed them. This one lurched around wildly, with NC State surging from ten down to take a four-point lead in the first ten minutes of the second half. Four minutes after that lead was established, NC State decided they'd done enough scoring for one game. They were not correct.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: Back to the salt mines: ten minutes against FSU with two points and an assist; five minutes against UNC with one missed three, an assist, and two fouls to his credit.

SEEDWATCH: Five on CTD, Six on the Matrix.

Arkansas (17-10)

Georgia: W 62-60. @ Florida: L 71-54.

Arkansas remains on the bubble-bubble and could get on the bubble by winning out. A two point home win over Georgia does not suggest they are going to do that what with games against Kentucky and Missouri left.

SEEDWATCH: nyet.

West Virginia (13-12)

@ Kansas State: L 71-61. Oklahoma State: L 73-57.

Y'all be bad at basketball.

SEEDWATCH: poppy seed muffins that get you arrested for opiods.

497294952_c06a81d93b1_thumb1_thumb_tViewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding

3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Was yesterday. K-State beat Texas Tech by lots.

Tuesday

Indiana at Minnesota, 7PM, ESPN
Nebraska at Wisconsin, 9PM, BTN
Florida at Tennessee, 9PM, ESPN

Wednesday

MICHIGAN at Penn State, 6:30 PM, BTN
Purdue at Iowa, 8:36 PM, BTN

Thursday

Ohio State at Northwestern, 7PM, ESPN2
Gonzaga at BYU, 11PM, ESPN2

Friday

nyet

Saturday

Alabama at Florida, noon, ESPN
Kansas at West Virginia, 2PM, CBS
Penn State at Minnesota, 3PM, BTN
Nebraska at Illinois, 5:15 PM, BTN
Miami at Duke, 6PM, ESPN
Iowa at Indiana, 7:30, BTN
Arizona at UCLA, 9PM, ESPN

Sunday

Purdue at Wisconsin, 1PM, ESPN
Michigan State at MICHIGAN, 4PM, CBS
NC State at Georgia Tech, 6PM, ESPNU

Comments

ak47

February 26th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^

I think its strange that it is distinctly possible that Indiana could win the big ten but we would finish ranked above them and get a #1 seed.  If michigan wins out and indiana only loses to us they win the big ten but we would be ranked higher.  After that its possible both teams could drop out in the semi's of the conference tourney which would really cause us to sweat on selection sunday about a #1 seed since it would really be up in the air.

jmblue

February 26th, 2013 at 3:20 PM ^

If that were to happen, Michigan and Indiana would have the same overall record and would have split the season series, so deciding among the two would be essentially a coin flip.  The conference record alone doesn't have to be the deciding factor, especially since the Big Ten schedule is unbalanced. 

akearney50

February 26th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^

This is the last year of Bracket Buster games, but here is what has happened to these games:
1) Originally only had teams competing that had a chance of making the tournament.
2) Entered in to agreements with certain conferences (MVC, MAC, CAA, etc.) to have games for all of the teams in the conference in hopes of getting a couple good tv games.  They would evenly pair the teams (i.e. first place from Conference A would play first place team from Conference B).  This also led to last place teams playing each other.....teams that had no chance of busting any brackets.
3) Entered in to agreements with all sorts of conferences.  This has led to teams with 3 or 4 wins in a conference that gets a 16 seed 75% of the time playing in Bracket Buster games.

Steves_Wolverines

February 26th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^

Every week I look forward to this. I put together a similar thing in my head every week and see how mine compares with yours. Never thought that Kansas State win would potentially be over the Co Big-12 champs. Awesome.

Oh, and how about Big-10 officiating carrying over to the Big-12 last night in the Kansas-Iowa St. game? I know it was pretty terrible both ways throughout the game, but that final minute was about as bad as it gets. And people were making a big deal about the officiating in our win over ohio. Pshhh. 

 

champswest

February 26th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^

about seed projections when there are still 5-7 games left to be played.  The top spots are likely to change a couple of more times before selection Sunday.  Why sweat it?  Besides, I have never thought that there was much difference between a #1 or #2 seed anyway.

San Diego Mick

February 26th, 2013 at 2:27 PM ^

experts putting Gonzaga so high up? So what that they've only lost 2 games, that just shows how weak their conference is, this really pisses me off.

They lost to Illinois at home and at Butler, who we haven't heard much about lately and we beat Illinois by 14 & 13 points. Where would the Zags be if they played in the B1G?

Just stupid that they're ranked so high.

Greatgig

February 26th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^

This sounds very similar to what the SEC fans say about any other conference's best teams when football is on the brain.  It's not that I disagree with you, just mentioning that it seems to upset most around here when the same logic is thrown our way.  

I will defend the Zags in that it is always tough to win conference road games and, for the most part, they've killed their conference foes, admittedly week foes, but still road wins don't come that easy.  

I live in Spokane and if you think you're annoyed with the Zag love, trust me, you have it good.  Besides, you live in SD, how bad can life really be? :)

Greatgig

February 26th, 2013 at 6:33 PM ^

Can't complain, we get all four seasons which is nice, but it's not San Diego!  I absolutely agree with your stance that Gonzaga is rated too high and that the national pundits are too focused on records.  Enjoy the beach, I'm going to go ahead and fire up the electric blanket for a few more weeks yet.

raleighwood

February 26th, 2013 at 3:07 PM ^

"Arizona beat Miami, NCSU, and Florida in the nonconference schedule."

Arizona didn't play NCSU this season.  They did, however, beat them back in the 2010-11 season.

I definitely think that Michigan deserves a 1 seed at this late point in the season.  That doesn't necessarily mean that I think they are a Top 4 team, just that they have a Top 4 resume at this point.  The Sparty game this weekend is HUGE.  If they win that game, it'll be hard to knock them off of 1 line.

Michigan4Life

February 26th, 2013 at 11:50 PM ^

3 B1G teams earning #1 seeds. SEC is a 2 bid league, ditto with Pac-12.  Big 12 is decent. ACC is overrated.  B1G is the only conference that is tough with top teams beating up on each other.

B1G was the best conference(by not much though) and Michigan earned a #3 seed which is a surprise considering that we expected 4-5 seed.  This year, B1G is the best conference by a wide margin.  I would be shocked if they don't have at least 2 team at #1 seed.