Seedwatch and Stuff: Argh

Submitted by Brian on March 12th, 2013 at 3:05 PM

two-or-three[1]Seedwatch

LIKE MAKE YOUR FREE THROWSSSSS

Michigan may have gone 1-1 last week, but it was a good 1-1 compared to results for various other teams like Miami (losers at home to KP#84 Georgia Tech), New Mexico (went down to Air Force), Kansas (annihilated by Baylor), and Florida (at Kentucky is the most understandable loss of this bunch, but it is still a loss). As a result, they have moved up a bit. Crashing The Dance still has them a three; the Bracket Matrix has them as the last #2, in an indistinguishable heap with Michigan State and Miami for two of the three final twos.

Michigan probably cannot salvage a one seed after the Indiana collapse. Even if Michigan ran off four wins in four days to win the BTT they would have a hard time passing the current anointed four of Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Louisville. Duke and Indiana are pretty much out of the question; Gonzaga is extremely unlikely to lose; Louisville's run off seven straight wins after the wacky 5OT game against Notre Dame and was two games better in the BE than Michigan was in the Big Ten. Maybe if the league hadn't consigned the Big Ten championship game to a novelty that can flip seeds within the conference but do little else because it's so late, but… uh… they did.

The conference tournaments will decide whether Michigan's a 2 or 3, it looks like. The best result possible is a strong 2 that avoids Duke. I guess it is possible Michigan would fall to a 4 if they were to gack it up against Penn State again; barring that a 1-1 performance in Chicago will at least lock up a 3.

How much does this matter? Projected 6s according to the Bracket Matrix: UNLV, Butler, UCLA, VCU. Projected 7s: Colorado State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Memphis. Not much.

Projected ones: Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville

Nonconference Watch

Florida_Arkansas_Bask_Jone_copy_r600l555090817460x18

i changed the pictures. run, BJ, run!

RPI-effect-only Teams

Last win for IUPUI: December 27th. Their season is over at 6-26 after being the third-worst defensive team in the country. Binghamton: January 19th. Season over at 3-27. Fourth-worst offensive team in the land.

Central won a couple games late but finished 4-12 in the MAC and went out in the first round of their conference tourney; done at 11-20. Bradley fulfilled its destiny to be .500 at something by losing their last three games to finish 16-16. Cleveland State is also done after getting blown out by Loyola Chicago and Illinois Chicago—be nice, Chicago—at 14-18.

Still alive: Eastern Michigan, which had a rematch against Northern Illinois in the MAC tourney opener that they won 45-44. They play Miami (not that Miami) tomorrow. Western won their division and plays the winner of that game for the right to play OHIO in the semi.

Big sorts of teams

Pitt (24-7)

@ DePaul: W 81-66.

DePaul never had a chance, because they are DePaul. They finish the regular season Kenpom's #6 team and will be a team highlighted in every tempo-free-aware bracket preview because they'll have one of the biggest gaps between Kenpom projected ability and seed in the field. I'm with the skeptical committee: Pitt built their KP profile against nobody in the nonconference—other than Michigan their only KP100 opponents were #99 Lehigh and #75 Detroit—and anyone who can keep them from destroying the offensive boards will put their offense in considerable difficulty.

Pitt enters the last Big East tournament the four-seed. They've acquired the last double bye and will take on either Syracuse or someone real bad at basketball on Thursday during Michigan's game against Penn State.

SEEDWATCH: Up one to a five on BM; they're well ahead of the top 6, UNLV.  CTD has them a seven still. They're actually below Minnesota(!) over there.

Kansas State (25-6)

TCU: W 79-68. @ Okie State: L 76-70

Elsewhere in painful ways to blow a share of a conference title, K-State took on Okie State with a shot at going 15-3 in the Big 12 and tying Kansas. They led by four with five minutes left, whereupon OSU went on an 8-0 run before free throw time. Sad pandas. Let's be sad pandas together, eating bamboo and watching the Lifetime Movie Network.

K-State saw the Cowboys put up 63% from two, which was enough despite having a major possession advantage.

SEEDWATCH: Drops to a 4 on BM; a five on CTD.

North Carolina State (22-9)

Wake Forest: W 81-66. @ Florida State: L 71-67

You might have this image in your head of Florida State as a typical Leonard Hamilton outfit that grinds all up on you like a guy wearing Axe at the club and makes life extremely difficult for everyone. This would not be correct. They are 10th in the ACC in defense, yielding almost 38% of defensive rebounds to the opponent amongst other deficiencies. They are barely above .500 and lost to Mercer, South Alabama, and Auburn earlier this year.

NC State losing to them is not understandable except insofar as NC State is not actually all that good at basketball. All the stats are basically even; NC State was undone again by M-versus-Indiana level defensive rebounding (lost 55% of DREBs to FSU) and allowing 56% on twos.

MCHOBBIT UPDATE: 11 minutes but not active against FSU, though he did have a block(!). 12 minutes against Wake.

SEEDWATCH: Still an 8 on BM; CTD now agrees. As mentioned, this team is probably the least fun potential matchup amongst all the 8-9 seeds for a one. If they, like, are trying they're good. I would hate Mark Gotfried if I was an NC State fan though.

Arkansas (19-12)

@ Missouri: L 93-63. Texas A&M: W 73-62.

Arkansas's massive home-road disparity ended their faint bubble hopes before their game against Missouri even got started. 9-9 in this SEC with one decent nonconference win against Oklahokma (that at home) isn't going to get it done.

But seriously though, I would like you to find a team with a crazier home/road split in conference play than the Razorbacks:

  • HOME: 9-0, double digit wins over Florida and Kentucky. Beat Missouri.
  • AWAY: 1-8, lone win against horrible Auburn. Annihilated by mediocre to terrible teams like A&M (69-51), South Carolina (75-54), and Vandy (67-49).

At home, Arkansas can play with anyone—beat anyone. On the road, they lose to SEC Penn State by 21. The Razorbacks get Vandy again to start the SEC tourney. Kenpom labels the location "semi-away." Semi-hide the semi-children, Arkansas is going to get semi-blown out.

SEEDWATCH: Thanks for playing. Enjoy your NIT home games.

West Virginia (13-18)

@ Oklahoma: L 83-70. Iowa State: L 83-74

Still not good at basketball.

SEEDWATCH: lollercoaster

497294952_c06a81d93b1_thumb1_thumb_t Viewing Guide

Games relevant to your interest that are on the TV and may be worth watching after the first ten minutes. Bolded teams are suggested teams to root for, calibrated for …

1) helping M win conference title
2) best chance for quality-win pile-up to help M seeding

3) greatest number of tourney teams from league
4) eff Michigan State
5) also Wisconsin

Monday

Yesterday; no games.

Tuesday

nyet

Wednesday

nyet

Thursday

Pitt versus Probably Syracuse, 2PM, ESPN
MICHIGAN versus Penn State, 2:30 PM, BTN
K-State versus Texas/TCU, 6PM, not televised
NC State versus Virginia Tech, 2:30PM, ESPNU

Friday

Maybe Pitt versus Probably Georgetown, 7PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Wisconsin, 1:30 PM, ESPN
Probably K-State vs Okie State/Baylor, 8:30PM, ESPNU
Probably NC State vs Virginia, 2:30PM, ESPN2

Saturday

Probably Not Pitt versus Probably Louisville Or Marquette, 8:30PM, ESPN
Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably Indiana, 12:40 PM, CBS
Maybe K-State versus Probably Kansas, 5PM, ESPN
Possibly NC State versus Probably Miami, 1PM, ESPN

Sunday

Hopefully MICHIGAN versus Probably OSU or MSU, 2:30PM, CBS
Probably Not NC State versus Probably Duke, 1PM, ESPN

Comments

UMFan1780

March 12th, 2013 at 3:31 PM ^

Will light a fire. They played inspired, just couldn't hold on. I'm looking forward to the B1G Tournament (and not just because I have an all-session ticket). If (when) we go on a run, the slew of teams we get a chance for revenge at is sweet. Also, while we have some glaring flaws, all teams do this year. An NCAA run from the 2 or 3 is not out of the question (it may be likely, actually).

Jack

March 12th, 2013 at 3:35 PM ^

"Gonzaga is extremely unlikely to lose"

Seeing as how they won their conference tournament last night, I'd say it's about as unlikely as possible.

HEY-O

j_watters

March 12th, 2013 at 3:39 PM ^

The two major brackets I've seen (CBS and ESPN), and we all know how that fluctuates, have Michigan in a very favorable region. Makes me wish to be a strong #3 seed as opposed to the weakest #2.

Duncan

March 12th, 2013 at 3:43 PM ^

Not much difference.  Almost would rather see them be a 3 seed, so they play in Auburn Hills?  Well, a 50% chance of that, if a 3 seed.

And teams like UCLA and VCU as 6 seeds do not worry me, as I've seen UCLA play numerous times and think they are thrash.  VCU, a team I believe you mentioned as someone dependent on turnovers.

jmblue

March 12th, 2013 at 4:20 PM ^

I'm almost certain that seeds are not locked into any geographical area.  We should be in Auburn Hills if we're a #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed.

The high seeds get favorable locations.  ESPN's projected #2 seeds are OSU, Georgetown, Miami and Kansas, respectively, which is why they're projected to play at those sites. 

Yeoman

March 13th, 2013 at 12:03 AM ^

The committee has tended to either ignore the results of the last couple of championship games on Sunday or to pencil the two teams in with the intention of flipping them depending on who wins. The only way one of those would be a #1 seed is if Indiana's the opponent, which can't happen (and even if it had worked out differently, I don't think the committee would put Michigan over Indiana just for winning one out of three against them).

It's hard to move teams around that late in the day unless you're swapping teams within a conference; each change means teams getting moved into half-regionals with other teams in their conference, who then have to be moved, etc. Easier to just let it ride or flip two teams in the same league.

JBE

March 12th, 2013 at 4:40 PM ^

After the BE tourney, I bet Georgetown jumps Louisville for the 1 seed. I think they are the better of the teams and will probably have a good run.

NoHeartAnthony

March 12th, 2013 at 8:32 PM ^

We struggle against strong defensive rebounding teams.  CSU has the highest defensive rebounding rate in the nation.  

Plus they're 20 on kenpom, much higher than what is expected for a 7.  

Eustachy is a great coach too.

Give me Memphis and Josh "Not Calipari" Pastner all day.

gwkrlghl

March 12th, 2013 at 6:56 PM ^

does make me feel a lot better about the NCAA tournament. There won't be anyone out there with an intimidating record or intimidating ranking. We've seen it all this season: a slew of top 25 opponents (including several top 5's), several POY candidates, and a bunch of huge games on the big stage. We won't be able to say we weren't prepared