Recruiting Vibe-O-Meter

Submitted by Brian on January 26th, 2012 at 1:00 PM

As Signing Day nears, people commit to schools. That's how it works. Michigan has had a long wait after their summer flood and now sits on five guys that will either fill out the class or commit heinous crimes that can never be forgiven. In the spirit of late January/early February recruiting overkill, a rundown of the prospects and what my own Bayesian spidey sense (assembled from message board trolling, tips in the inbox, and a few conversations) is feeling at the moment.

If you don't read every word of the recruiting roundups, let this serve as a 1,000 foot view.

9048518-large[1]OH TE Sam Grant. Grant recently decommitted from Boston College after a long period of being a commit in name only and is either down to Michigan and Oklahoma or those two schools and Arkansas, depending on who you listen to. I have no insider information on him but his visit schedule is telling. In chronological order, he took trips to:

  1. BC
  2. Michigan
  3. Arkansas
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Michigan

That second trip is telling, likely an attempt to confirm his decision or bring a family member up to get them on board. With Kyle Kalis undoubtedly in his ear and Oklahoma flush with tight end recruits (three already), this one seems like the least dramatic recruitment on the board.

Verdict: Michigan.

Jordan-Diamond[1]IL OL Jordan Diamond. Diamond has seemingly had Michigan in the lead for over a year now, when he popped up on Michigan's radar during their recruitment of Simeon teammate Chris Bryant. A recruit not committing to an obvious leader over a long period of time can be a bad sign—it's often a signal there's something impassable. In Diamond's case, once Meyer arrived and started shooting offers out to anyone with four stars in the Big Ten footprint rumors started swirling about an Ohio State commit; he visited.

That moment has passed, leaving Diamond with an official top four of M, Arkansas, Auburn, and Wisconsin. Unofficially, that top four is a top two of M and Arkansas. The delay here is supposedly alarm at Michigan's offensive line recruiting class and Diamond's seeming inability to start from day one at Michigan. If Michigan makes it clear that the need at tackle is dire and that a couple of the touted players in the class are likely destined for guard (like Kalis and Garnett if he chooses justice and light), he should be blue. People close to Diamond believe that he really wants Michigan.

Verdict: Michigan.

scaled1_0[1]WA OL Josh Garnett. The biggest fish on the board is down to Stanford and Michigan. There is an interesting divide between the most informed Michigan observers (Sam, Tom), who believe it will be M, and most national analysts, who believe it will be Stanford. Garnett is going to make a lot of people wrong no matter who he chooses. Tom's confidence has been on the wane a bit of late; Sam, too, has been a little more reserved about Michigan's chances. This seems based on vibe more than new information, which isn't forthcoming. Some of the West Coast analysts predicting Stanford admit that they haven't gotten any new information out of Garnett in forever.

Meanwhile, Kevin Erik Magnuson [ed: damn my memory for obscure old M hockey defensemen] and Garnett twitter footsie has reached levels heretofore unseen. Garnett has a bunch of people snowed either way; the choice here is between distance from home and being able to enjoy a milkshake with Magnuson at a school that has a much better track record of sustained success than Stanford.

This one is a tossup on which I don't have inside info. But…

Verdict: Michigan.

image[1]MA CB Armani Reeves. After decommiting from Penn State, Reeves is down to Michigan or Ohio State. Michigan came in second on Reeves's first go-round and familiarity on its side—Ohio State just hired their defensive backs coach a couple hours ago. Ohio State has a commitment from best friend and fellow PSU decommit Camren Williams. Quien es mas macho?

Nobody knows. This is another recruitment that will go into the hat dance a genuine mystery; Rivals East Coast analyst Mike Farrell was "surprised" that the Urban in-home didn't lock Reeves down and now gives Michigan a ludicrously specific 52-48 edge based on nothing more than Bayesian spidey sense vibes. It's likely that not even Reeves knows where he's going at the moment.

Verdict: Flip a coin.

69751_1445193861368_1578789429_30924635_5615435_n[1]CO OL Alex Kozan. Kozan is down to Iowa, Michigan, and Auburn, three of the four schools he took officials to. Ohio State, the other, was presumed to be the heavy favorite. The way that changed suddenly implies that OSU pulled its offer. With the lingering OSU fandom push him away or will revenge bloodlust push him towards Michigan? Nobody knows.

No one knows anything about Kozan, really. I can't find one thing that indicates he's leaning one way or the other and haven't heard anything personally. All I've got is that it's the Auburn site on 247 that seems to be posting the most relevant items, like his announcement date. Auburn is nowhere near the 25 maximum and though they are hypothetically near 85, things happen, you know.

Verdict: Flip a three-sided coin.

Random Surprise Fellow. I think Michigan can take all five of the above if the chips fall their way. They have 23 with three early enrollees and have 27 scholarships open right now with one blindingly obvious candidate to not receive a fifth year. If Michigan strikes out on one or more of the above, do they have an Englemon in their pocket?

I have heard they do, a generic three-star defensive lineman currently committed to another BCS school. Michigan initially did not pursue him heavily but if there's a signing day flip don't be shocked. I think it'll take more than missing out on just one of the above for that to happen, but if it's a choice between leaving three scholarships open and taking a mystery guy I'm betting on mystery guy.

Comments

M-Wolverine

January 26th, 2012 at 1:55 PM ^

Was how were we ever going to have enough scholarships to fit in 20 guys...then 22..then 25...then 25+?

I'll give everyone a hint...it wasn't long after our biggest worry was "when are we ever going to get our first commitment?!?!"

kmedved

January 26th, 2012 at 1:26 PM ^

Given Tom was only saying he had a very good feeling about Garnett, without even "officially" predicting him to go Blue, the need to backpedal suggests that he's heard he's staying local.

 

Which might also explain why Diamond is looking more likely all of a sudden.

jg2112

January 26th, 2012 at 1:27 PM ^

but nobody has heard anything from garnett, so any backpedaling is created by the author, not the recruit.

As of last night's interview with the aquaman he said he had not made up his mind. what is there to glean from a statement like that?

Laser Wolf

January 26th, 2012 at 1:18 PM ^

A generic three-star defensive lineman? That doesn't sound anything like Dorial Green-Beckham or Stefon Diggs. You better check your sources again, Brian.

Six Zero

January 26th, 2012 at 1:19 PM ^

There's a mystery guy. I'd bet more than one.

And I can't help but wonder how many calls are being made this afternoon from Washtenaw County to young men previously thinking of relocating to Piscataway...?

Mr. Yost

January 26th, 2012 at 1:21 PM ^

I think the mystery recruit is Greg Kuhar...there was a little bit of interest early. And he's teammates with Kalis and Grant.

 

Pierre Aka and Alex Pace are two other DLmen committed to BCS Schools that have had interest from UM in the past.

Mr. Yost

January 26th, 2012 at 3:38 PM ^

People forget about Miller from last year...he could be the center and they could recruit another one next year.

But Kozan would be the first choice...after that it wouldn't shock me if Kalis played center.

The hated Mike Brewster at Ohio was a 5* OT recruit before moving to center so his fellow commits (I want to say Adams and Shugarts) could play tackle.

93Grad

January 26th, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^

That one stumped me.  My first guess was Darryl Goldsmith, but he is only a 2 star on Rivals and Scout and is not committed anywhere yet.

 

Danny O' is obviously a 4 star and it seems that shipped has sailed.  Likewise, Jamal Lyles is a 4 star to both sites.

 

Anyone have a clue who this is?

acnumber1

January 26th, 2012 at 1:28 PM ^

mys·ter·y 1 

 (mst-r)

n. pl. mys·ter·ies

1. One that is not fully understood or that baffles or eludes the understanding; an enigma: How he got in is a mystery.
2. One whose identity is unknown and who arouses curiosity: The woman in the photograph is a mystery.
3. A mysterious character or quality: a landscape with mystery and charm.
4. A work of fiction, a drama, or a film dealing with a puzzling crime.
5. The skills, lore, or practices that are peculiar to a particular activity or group and are regarded as the special province of initiates. Often used in the plural: the mysteries of Freemasonry; the mysteries of cooking game.
6. A religious truth that is incomprehensible to reason and knowable only through divine revelation.