Preview: San Diego State 2011 Comment Count

Brian September 23rd, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Previously here: Tim's preview of SDSU from the offseason. SDSU FFFF from Ace. Get your mini programs!

Other stuff: Know Your Foe from the MZone. So-bad-it's-good Hoke as Matt Foley photoshop. Previews from M&BG, MNB Nation, and BWS. Holdin' the Rope asks Who Are You And Why Do We Care?


WHAT Michigan vs
San Diego State
WHERE Michigan Stadium,
Ann Arbor, MI
September 24th 2011
THE LINE Michigan –9
WEATHER low 60s, cloudy, 40% chance of rain



Run Offense vs. San Diego State

We don't know how good the San Diego State run defense is yet but the early returns are not good for Rocky Long. The Aztecs got ground down by Army in their first game against I-A competition, yielding 403(!) yards on 77(!) carries. That's 5.2 per against a team that threw less than 10% of the time. It's also a game against a triple option opponent. See Georgia Tech games for evidence option foes can screw with your brain without affecting how well you play against more conventional competition.

A first glance at the stats suggests Washington State played as if trying to illustrate this principle, racking up 51 yards on 28 carries. HOWEVA, a zillion sacks distort those numbers greatly. When you excise those, WSU managed 95 yards on 22 carries. That's not great, but it is 4.3 YPC from last year's #117 rushing offense. Washington State might seem much better but that doesn't mean they can run any: against obviously horrible UNLV they managed just 3.8 YPC on 39 carries. Wisconsin did 6.3, so… like… yeah. Are we ready to give up the dream of having Wisconsin-like numbers on the ground yet? I'm not. Are we ready to project 6.8 YPC based on an inane chain of comparisons? Sure!

It's a guess this early, but the guess here is SDSU does not have a good run defense, and may be downright awful. Ace's SDSU Fee Fi Foe Film* featured a couple of runs where 240-pound SDSU defensive ends get latched on to and turned into donkeys by WSU offensive tackles who are most certainly not Taylor Lewan. Watch the right tackle:

That's an inside zone! You know what never happens on inside zones? The defensive end never gets crushed to the point where the play bounces outside.

If the Aztecs try to play this straight up they will die, so they won't. That's the whole deal with the 3-3-5. If you're smart and disciplined and attack the right way even a size-deficient team like TCU can slash their way into the Wisconsin backfield and live. It seems obvious SDSU does not have this down yet, but neither does Michigan have their stuff down. They spent large chunks of the EMU game looking comically bad on power running schemes, especially that pin and pull zone play that is not the stretch and never gets any yards.

The prescription here is for more donkey: QB iso/offtackle stuff behind Lewan and a surprisingly feisty Mark Huyge, mixed in with some zone read just to see if the world really has forgotten how to defend it. (Frequent emailer and smart football guy (not that smart football guy) Tyler Sellhorn emailed me about my Q about the power-zone read combo and did confirm that it really puts the WLB in a bind and makes the scrape exchange games tougher to play, but that's another post.) Runs that hit laterally are asking the quick little buggers on the SDSU defense to slant into your face and should be infrequent constraints.

Key Matchup: Borges versus Long mindgames. I don't think SDSU can win straight up here and don't think Michigan knows what they're doing well enough to figure out all the blitzes Long will chuck at them. So the Q: who is going to catch the other guy out more often?

*[MEMO TO PAID MGOCONTRIBUTORS: Good God we need to work on segment names. Between "Michigan Muesday" that runs on Wednesday and the above… let's just say it's a work in progress. The redeeming thing about the above is potentially referring to it by its abbreviation: FFFF.]

Pass Offense vs. San Diego State

Washington State quarterback Marshall Lobbestael had a very Denard 2011 sort of day against the Aztecs, except with more volume: 368 yards and three touchdowns are explosive but two interceptions and completing just 20 of 42 attempts are not so much. And that's all we have to go on. SDSU's other opponents were a I-AA team I considered applying to out of high school and option-mad Army.

Last year the Aztecs were good, finishing 20th in pass efficiency D and a bit above average in sacks. They did a creditable job against Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, who needed 51 attempts to rack up 351 yards, 88 of those on a two-play WTF drive with just over a minute left. When not desperate, Gabbert was pwned, but at least Michigan's "fall behind and chuck it deep" strategy looks like it will work.

The Aztecs return three fifths of their starting secondary, losing leading tackler and bandit-type safety Andrew Preston and cover corner Darryn Lewis; the other corner, deep safety, and spur-type safety return. SDSU's pass rush comes from all over—I count 16 different Aztecs picking up sacks last year in Tim's preview—but the main threat is fifth-year SLB Mile Burris, the only guy on the team to get more than two. His 9.5 sacks should make him a marked man. Senior DE Jerome Long has three this year against questionable competition.

Michigan, meanwhile, has had a very Marshall Lobbestael 2011. That's not good. They don't throw much, throw accurately even less, and throw short very, very rarely. Against a shifting, zone-blitz-in-a-bag 3-3-5 that actually works Denard might have struggles identifying who the open guys are going to be on straight dropbacks. Or he might not. I have no idea what a 3-3-5 is supposed to look like. Given my experience with the defense, everyone will be open by at least ten yards.

If that's not the case I'd like to see Michigan work the less-dangerous edges with the curl/flat and snag stuff Denard did last year, saving the over the middle passing for deadly play action. I'm not sure we'll actually get to see this. It's time to go back to Denard's well. Will Borges see it the same way?

Key Matchup: Denard versus The Return of Tacopants. Gotta throw it on target before we can talk about anything else.

Run Defense vs. San Diego State

This is going to be a problem. Eastern Michigan averaged 4.5 YPC without any semblance of a passing game, and while the run offense is the one part of EMU's team that isn't completely horrible we're talking about a bad MAC team running better than any Carr team ever did. Yerk.

With Cam Gordon "available" but not starting the personnel won't be much better. It may be worse. I have a credible report that Craig Roh suffered an upper body injury in the EMU game that won't necessarily keep him out but may limit his playing time and effectiveness. With Jibreel Black playing well that won't cause a huge dropoff, but it does kill off any hopes Black and Roh might see the field together.

Michigan's getting decent to good play from three of the four defensive linemen and problems from whoever isn't Martin, RVB, or Roh/Black. Will Campbell's playing time has gradually increased as it becomes clear the walk-ons are pretty much just walk-ons and not magical Kovacs walk-ons.



The linebackers have been erratic. While they're not helped out by plays like the above or the all-too-frequent edge busts from whoever the SLB has been, Kenny Demens and Brandin Hawthorne had rough games against Eastern. Demens did play well against Notre Dame, for what it's worth, and his track record suggests he's pretty good. The bigger worries are at the other two spots, where Jake Ryan is learning but still gives up the edge way too often and Hawthorne shows potential… when he's not wondering WTF is going on.

Opposite this uneven bunch of good players, walk-ons, tiny guys, larger guys, and a smattering of freshmen is Ronnie Hillman, the nation's second leading rusher. If that doesn't mean much three weeks into the season, he was tenth a year ago as a freshman. He was sort of held in check against the better MWC teams, with 62 yards against BYU, and 54 against both Utah and TCU. I say "sort of" because the main problem for Hillman in those games was usage, not efficiency: he had only 38 carries. If you're scoring at home that's still 4.5 YPC—hardly a reason to starve the beast. Here is where I will abruptly gloss over the 228 yards against Missouri so no one gets too frightened.

Did that work?

No. All right, it shouldn't. SDSU returns four of five linemen and is running basically the same offense they did last year—a lot of variety, but a variety these guys are used to. Hillman can play, and Michigan's defense to date has been frighteningly erratic. SDSU just annihilated WSU on the ground. This is going to be a problem.

Key Matchup: Hawthorne and Demens vs counter steps and other misdirection. They've been late reading plays all year and late to the hole. Do that against Hillman and he's severely testing Jordan Kovacs's to-date pristine record of not giving up long touchdowns when they bust into your secondary.

Pass Defense vs. San Diego State


Ryan Lindley and his favorite target Colin Lockett

You are probably aware of Aztec senior QB Ryan Lindley, he of the massive passing yardage and low-level NFL buzz. Lindley has not quite picked up where he left off last year. His day against Army was Denard-2011-like: 8 of 18, 146 yards, 1 TD and no INTs. 8 YPC, sure, but alarming completion percentage and what's with the number of attempts?*

Last week Lindley got the attempts in buckets (37) and managed 273 yards with two TDs and an INT.  Washington State is clearly not as awful as they've been—hammering a I-A opponent, any I-A opponent, proves that—but that was last year's #110 passing efficiency defense.

The jury's still out as SDSU hovers around 50th in passer efficiency early in the season. This is largely because of SDSU's receiver situation. The Aztecs lost NFL third-rounder Vincent Brown and running mate DeMarco Sampson, then lost their replacements to season-ending injuries. The leading returner at WR is Dylan Denso and his four catches; he's got nine already this year. Sophomore Colin Lockett is the current go-to guy with 254 yards in three games. He's a big play threat: along with his 21.6 yards per catch he has a kick return touchdown against Cal Poly. However, he's also a position-switch starter, going from the two-deep at corner to a starter at WR once the injuries hit.

Michigan's pass defense has either not had to exist or had to cover Michael Floyd with only the bruised ribs of Alex Carder in-between. They are clearly better than they were a year ago simply by virtue of defending some passes some of the time. Woolfolk's return and extra experience for Avery and Floyd gives the secondary some of that rumored depth stuff; the main problem has been in the nickel when Michigan brings in either a deeply unreliable safety or a freshman. Last week it was the freshman and given Thomas Gordon's strong play opposite Kovacs it will probably be the freshman again unless Michigan gets comfortable with flipping one of the veteran corners inside. Since the position requires more tackling, that would presumably be Floyd. The other options are tiny or wearing a big ol' cast.

Meanwhile, a series of zone blitzes nearly decapitated the aforementioned Carder and got nowhere against the veteran Notre Dame line. San Diego State's line is similarly veteran but presumably not as good. Can Michigan generate pressure from the front four? Can they get guys into the backfield on the zone blitzes? Ask again later.

Key Matchup: Cornerback du jour (Floyd?) over the top on Lockett. Given Michigan's success to date with press coverage on deep throws and their weakness against the running game, they will go to their heavy blitz press package and dare Lindley to beat them over the top with receivers who should be who-dats. Winning the battle with Lockett one-on-one allows Michigan to focus on the short stuff and Hillman and maybe slow this offense down enough to where it sputters.

*[The SDSU-Army game was a Life On The Margins hall of famer. SDSU ran just 43 plays and picked up under 300 yards; Army had 84 plays and 446 yards. So of course SDSU wins.]

Special Teams

Michigan still has no field goal attempts unless you count a glorified extra point at the end of the EMU game, which is fantastic. They've found a punt returner in the suddenly-better-than-competent Jeremy Gallon, and that's where the good news ends. Kickoff returns and coverage have been dismal. The punting has been mediocre, though I'm of the opinion the return to the dino-punt is allowing opponents return yardage they wouldn't otherwise get. Hagerup returns, but he returns next week.

The opponent is middling in most categories. They do have a kick return touchdown, but it was against Cal Poly and is of debatable meaning. Their main advantage is (as always) at kicker, where they have a guy who puts it through the uprights. Abelardo Perez was 17 of 22 last year, though he's missed two of his three attempts in 2011.




what I see when I look in the mirror

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Lockett is legit and too fast to stop over the top without help.
  • Michigan isn't refining the stuff that doesn't work out of the playbook.
  • Denard's still flinging it everywhere but the girl.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • SDSU's teeny DEs can't hold up over the tackles.
  • The zone read continues to amaze and mystify.
  • Michigan's zone blitzes return to effectiveness.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline 5; +1 for Hillman Is Better Than Eastern Running Backs, +1 for Lindley Can Throw And Probably Won't Try To Throw To Michael Floyd, –1 for Actually Even Though Michael Floyd Isn't In The State That Might Not Be A Bad Idea Given The State Of SDSU's Receiving Corps, +1 for Irrational Flashback To Previous Close SDSU Game Against Much Better Michigan Team, –1 for Vegas Has Our Back By Two Scores, –1 for Denard How Does SDSU Defend It Not Well, –1 for Seriously Look At That Army Game.)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 for Insane Person Kyle Turley's Revenge Would Be Annoying, +1 for But I Like Thinking Nice Things About Michigan Football, +1 [UPDATE: I meant to finish this five hours late] for Being Ranked Is Nice, +1 for Niceness Is Nice And Nice, -1 for Reduced Risk of Kyle Turley Murdering Entire State.)

Loss will cause me to... show up at the postgame press conference with a fistful of postage screaming "RETURN TO SENDER."

Win will cause me to... be mildly encouraged about something but still deeply suspicious that 2011 is just 2010 and 2009 with a less annoying media environment.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Will Michigan be able to run, run, run, run until SDSU has to freak out about it? I kind of think so but I'm wary given the Gator Bowl, when an attacking, gap-sound defense crushed the Michigan ground game. But then I'm all like Army 400 yards, and Washington State being competitive on the ground. This should be an old-school bludgeoning as long as Borges keeps it restricted to the stuff he knows they can execute.

If that happens and Michigan can hit some RPS+3 plays as a result they can keep ahead in this game. If they can't, they're in trouble. Hillman is going to rip off big runs on M. Resign yourself to this. They're going to spread the D out and hit those misdirection plays the linebackers have been vulnerable on all year and test out that freshman nickelback. And Lindley will hit the open guys who will be open.

Michigan will do well to bend but not break here, getting good safety play from Kovacs and Gordon and picking the right spots to get SDSU behind the chains with press man and the right blitzes. Keep the big plays to a minimum and make them bleed out field goals on you.

Survey says… possible. I've got less faith in this ground game than people only attending to last year might since it seems committed to chucking away a half-dozen downs per game on something or another that this line isn't very good at and therefore think Vegas is optimistic. In keeping with the 2010 and 2009 theme, this is the stomach-churner in the fourth quarter that keeps you undefeated but makes everyone very nervous.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • There is no screwing around with the idea that Denard is not the offense against an opponent the coaching staff respects. He has another 20 carries and 150 yards.
  • Kovacs cracks double digits in tackles, most acquired as he slices Hillman down after a ten yard gain.
  • Zone blitzing does not phase SDSU's OL—they're used to it—and Lindley has a high completion percentage.
  • Michigan, 27-24.



September 23rd, 2011 at 1:53 PM ^

I can see the future.  One of our RBs (or possibly more than one) is going to go on a rampage tomorrow.  So all of next week is going to be people posting "X is the man and the starting RB!  Hooray the run game is finally fixed."   These people either never bother to read previews or have the attention span of a crack addled monkey or a Michigan State Student.  Same thing, except the monkey has a shot at grad school.



September 23rd, 2011 at 2:09 PM ^

First play for Michigan will be a Denard Power to the left behind Lewan, the same play we started with against WMU. I'm counting on Lewan to throw that DE into the linebackers, knocking them down like bowling pins. This will lead to a 20+ yard run for Denard.


September 23rd, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^

SDSU tailback Ronnie Hillman was held to 62 yrds (BYU), 54 yds (vs. TCU) and 54 yrds (vs Utah). Of course, he did gain 228 yards rushing, 2 TDs and 9.9 ypc at Missour last year against a horrible Tiger run defense (statistically = 2010 UConn defense).

If Michigan can just slow Hillman down and keep him under 100 yards, then I think UM wins this game - and probably in decisive fashion.

But if Michigan allows Hillman to go over 150+yards on the ground, then I think Michigan is going to find themselves in a lot of trouble - so much so that anything can happen - from a last second FG loss to a 7+ pt defeat.

With Hillman in and churning out tons of yardage, anything can happen.


September 23rd, 2011 at 2:21 PM ^

Denard will have 150 yards rushing, mostly on big chunks.  Our other RBs will have 150 yards rushing, mostly in smaller chunks.  Denard will throw enough passes to open receivers to put us around 450-500 yards of total offense.  This should be enough to win the game.

D.C. Dave

September 23rd, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^

I don't think so much of San Diego State's defense. There's a good chance it can't stop the run or the pass.

It's all about the Michigan run defense. Stop Hillman, or at least contain him, don't turn it over, and we win. Lindley is not going to win the game with the receivers he has.

And I expect our team to keep improving. Can't overestimate the difficulty of putting in new schemes, particularly on defense, after three years of almost-constant chaos and confusion.

It's obvious our defense is much better coached and we're seeing the light go on, player by player. It's not a unit with a huge amount of talent by Michigan's traditional standards, but it's just as true that it's not a unit with no talent. We have some ballplayers and we're seeing others emerge as they are coached up. We can't dominate, but we can compete and there's more improvement coming.

Denard is still learning, but he is learning and I like the fact that we're trying to throw the ball downfield. I like going after teams vertically instead of the line-of-scrimmage passing attack we relied on so much under RR.

It takes time, but Denard is a gifted athlete and I expect a breakout performance through the air soon, maybe in this game.

Michigan 35-21.


September 23rd, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^

As I've already pointed out, yes the overall YPC allowed against EMU looks bad.  However, EMU averaged 9.2 YPC over their first 10 carries (in order 13, 6, 3, 19, 10, 18, 8, -3, 4, 14).  On the next 36 carries of the game (or the rest of the carries) they averaged 2.9 YPC.  The EMU game should not be scaring anyone about the rush defense.  The ND game certainly should, but not EMU. 


September 24th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^

Funny.  No, the point is that the Michigan defense has been bad in the first quarter and especially the first drive, but improves drastically in the second quarter through the end of the game.  Basically what this shows is that EMU was effective running the ball for about 1 1/2 drives and was shut down after that.  I fail to see how that's irrelevant.

UM Indy

September 23rd, 2011 at 3:08 PM ^

of any size or description would be most welcome.  This is a quality offense we're playing, a good test going into B1G play.  Denard needs to get the ball to Gallon on quick hitters, the kid can absolutely jet.  Matriculate to some deep throws to Tree and Junior that are hopefully on target.  I see this game going into the 4th quarter.  Hillman will keep them in the game.


September 23rd, 2011 at 3:25 PM ^

Had I read the preview without that last line, I would have thought Brian was predicting a 35-24 San Diego State win.  I am worried about this one, and at the end of the day I feel like the Aztecs are a sharper, smarter team than Michigan right now.  Am I an expert?  Far from it, but I see this is as a narrow SDSU win.


September 23rd, 2011 at 3:48 PM ^

Bottom line to me is SDSU's strengths are our weaknesses. As a group, we have better talent, but that doesn't necessarily mean wins.

1. Our linebackers are inexperienced and have a difficult time diagnosing plays quickly vs stud running back Hillman.

2. Our coverage is average at best vs an accurate and experienced QB in Lindley. Ther wide receivers are inexperienced, but Lockett looks like a solid player.

3. Denards throwing vs. a goofy defensive scheme that can have pressure/coverage coming from multiple locations. Denard is going to get confused with coverage schemes. 


For the positives:

1. I think we will be able to nickel and dime them to death and keep our defense off the field with our running game.

2. Mattisons adjustements leaves me with a lot of optimism. I refuse to believe that he can be woefully our schemed/coached. He will come up with a solution, or at the very least a bandaid if things go awry. 

3. We are at home with 0 travel and SDSU had to fly 3 time zones for a noon start. Typically that does not bode well for the traveling team. 


I'm not very confident, but for some reason I think Michigan wins 35-21. I think it will be close at half, something like 17-14, but we prevail in the second half. 

Away Goal

September 23rd, 2011 at 4:52 PM ^

I'm not sure when they left for AA but this team has already experienced very difficult travel this season.  For the Army game they were going to leave Thursday evening but then came the great SoCal power outage and they didn't get out until around midnight or later and they were stranded at the airport waiting.  Their hotel back east was about an hour from the airport so they didn't even get into bed until 5 or 6 AM eastern.  It may explain their lackluster performance that Saturday.  I guessing unless something crazy happens, the trip to Ann Arbor will seem easy.


September 23rd, 2011 at 5:55 PM ^

When you say they flew in Thursday, what does that mean?  Did they leave SD early Thursday morning, meaning they spent almost the entire day Thursday travelling, meaning they didn't get a Thursday practice, or at least didn't get one at their practice field with their practice equipment?  Or did they leave Thursday night and take a red-eye, meaning they likely had a short night of poor sleep with only one day to recover?

I live in CA and I go back home to Michigan a few times a year.  It takes more than one day to adjust. 


September 23rd, 2011 at 4:24 PM ^

I'd cut the SDSU defense a bit of slack on the Army game. In Ellerson's first season (2009) he ran the flexbone he ran at Cal Poly (with a dash of I-form thrown in). In 2010 he moved to a veer framework purer than anything Lou Holtz ever ran.

And this year Ellerson shifts to a wishbone. SDSU had a week to prepare for something they not only won't see again, but more importantly hadn't seen more than 7 days before the game.


Sten Carlson

September 23rd, 2011 at 5:01 PM ^

I really find the pessimism about SDSU very very sad.  Guys say, "I hate to do this..." a predict a 10 point SDSU win...REALLY?!?

Look, the defense this season is 100x better than anything we've seen since maybe 2006.  Yes, they've given up more yards than many would like at times, BUT they've shown the ability to make the necessary adjustments AND to get turnovers -- the two things that seemed to be COMPLETELY lacking of late.  Defense is all about reacting to what the other team is doing, especially when your defense is not a "shut-down" D a la 1997.  Those kind of defenses come along very infrequently.  I am sure a lot of guys who post in here were freaking out when EMU moved the ball early and seemingly at will.  But, did those same nervous guys realize that it netted EMU 3 points?!?  I think people are expecting too much from the defense.  Nearly ANY offense SHOULD be able to move the ball on nearly ANY defense, at least at first.  That is just the nature of the game -- the offense knows where they're going to go, and the defense is forced to REACT.  Hillman will likely get off a bit early, but Mattison and crew will adjust and get SDSU out of their comfort zone and make things happen -- you can COUNT on that.

On the offensive side of the ball, we have yet to see Denard play anywhere NEAR his potential.  Every DC is going to scheme EXACTLY the same against him -- load the box and refuse the edge at ALL COSTS.  So far, this has worked (to an extent) not because they're brilliant DC's, but because DR hasn't been hitting his early throws or the WR's have been dropping them (see vs. ND early).  Hit them early, and the flood gates open up.  I love Denard, and I am 100% behind him and what Borges is trying to do with him.  But, he hasn't yet developed into a passer that will DESTROY 1 on 1 coverage.  It's no mystery -- his footwork isn't "there" yet and he's too amped up early.  There were SEVERAL wide open guys vs. ND and EMU that when he's calmer and his footwork is better were near guaranteed TD's.  I am hopeful that this game against SDSU will be Denard's best game to date -- maybe not the game where he puts up 500+ yards, but the game where he shows all the Big 10 DC's that he has developed to the point where if they load the box he's capable of sitting back and throwing for 100+ and 3 TD's in the 1st Qtr.  Then they'll be FORCED to unload the box, and the RB's can be more productive.  Which, incidently, is precisely WHY the RB's aren't producing to everyone's standards -- they're LOADING THE BOX.

Anyway, have faith...might be close early, but Michigan pulls away late and wins handily 35-17

Away Goal

September 23rd, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^

Haven't seen my alma mater (Cal Poly) mentioned this much, even if not by name most of the time, in sports related talk.


I've seen all 3 SDSU games this year and was there in person for the WSU game.  Their defensive front is very bendy-but-don't-break and we should be able to consistenly get 5, 6, 7 yards up the middle.  I think Hillman could go off which worries/excites me.  He is slick and seems to be very good at finding small creases and gaps in the line.

Lindley has looked average so far and seems frustrated with his own performance and the lack of receivers to throw too, though they are very deep at TE.  Locket is fast but the ball has doinked off his hands a couple of times...not too reliable...yet.

In the recent past SDSU has kept these type of games close but always finds a way to lose...UM, Notre Dame, OSU.  I'm a little scared, but I think it is a good scared.