THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Portrait of a head coach losing to Rutgers. (via)

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

THE RESUME

Penn State nearly worked their way through a nonconference slate of tomato cans unscathed, even knocking off #37 George Washington at home in the only game they played against a top-100 opponent. They did, however, trip up in a neutral site tourney game against a mediocre Charlotte squad. Know that feel, bros.

The start to Big Ten play hasn't been so kind. They predictably got blasted at Wisconsin in their conference opener before less predictably losing by four at Rutgers on Saturday. Coach Pat Chambers had a tough time explaining away the latter:

"Coming to New Jersey, for us, is a challenge, because we've got a lot of Philly kids and a lot of New Jersey kids. Got a lot of people in the stands. I hope that wasn't the reason our energy was low."

So, a border rivalry is a plausible reason for low energy?

"But I just think Rutgers' energy was that high. I thought they came out and played with a lot of fire."

For the record, school was not in session at RU and the baseline student section was largely barren except for the band. It was by no means an intimidating atmosphere.

Sometimes coaches would be better served to throw up their hands and say "college basketball is weird," because that's the damn truth.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Guard DJ Newbill has taken over the Tim Frazier role of "go be the offense," and he's doing quite well with it, posting 49/39/76 (2P/3P/FT) shooting splits with a solid free throw rate and an efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. His shooting numbers are even more impressive considering how often he's left to his own devices to create shots; he'll hit at least a couple shots after which you just have to tip your cap.

The second option is forward Brandon Taylor, which hasn't been a good thing. Taking a handful more threes than twos, his splits are just 46/29/58, and he turns over the rock often without moving the ball around much or hitting the offensive boards. He's better on defense, where he cleans the glass well and blocks his fair share of shots.

Freshman point guard Shep Garner has been solid thus far, especially with his shooting—he mostly sticks to the perimeter and knocks down 36% of his threes. His assist and turnover rates are relatively even, not a surprise for a newcomer, but that's mitigated by Newbill often handling lead guard duties.

Wing Geno Thorpe is making up for relatively ugly shooting numbers (48% 2P, 26% 3P) by getting to the line at a very high rate and knocking down 86% of his freebies. He's pretty turnover-prone, and is often lifted in favor of putting Ross Travis at the four and sliding Taylor down to the three. Travis gives the team a lot more rebounding—the best rates on the team, in fact, despite his 6'7" stature—but he's having an awful year offensively: 51/21/15 shooting splits (yes, he's 3/20 from the line) with a high turnover rate.

7'1" center Jordan Dickerson took over a starting spot from Donovan Jack midway through nonconference play. While the two are equally decent rebounders, Dickerson provides elite shot-blocking as opposed to Jack's merely decent rim protection. Jack is both more active and efficient on offense, so this is clearly a move designed to boost the defense. Both are very foul-prone, and ultimately should see a pretty even split in minutes with raw 6'10" freshman Julian Moore providing spot relief.

The other backup of note is 6'1" senior John Johnson, he of the repetitive name and really inefficient game last season; the former is obviously the same, while the latter has improved thanks to a newfound ability to work his way to the line.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Penn State's offensive profile is remarkably unremarkable: they rank 115th in efficiency while falling between 111th and 151st in the four factors. They're a below-average outside shooting team and slightly above-average at hitting two-pointers. The one stat that stands out: only 40.6% of their field goals are assisted, 344th nationally—this is a team extremely reliant on creating shots on their own, not a surprise for a team that gives so many shots to Newbill.

The Nittany Lion defense is solid due to excellent field goal defense—opponents hit just 42.8% of two-pointers and 30.6% of three-pointers. They do send opponents to the line on a regular basis, though we'll see if Michigan can actually take advantage.

THE KEYS

Anyone but Newbill. Given the lack of other shooters, Michigan's defense attention should be focused primarily on DJ Newbill. A big key to stopping him is keeping him from working his way to the top of the key, where he hits a ton of pull-up jumpers. Stopping dribble penetration hasn't been a strength for the Wolverine defense, but someone—most likely Caris LeVert—will have to step up tonight.

Get to the basket. Opponents have had a hard time making shots from the field against PSU, but they've managed to keep PSU's defense merely average by getting to the line at a high clip. Michigan has been terrible at getting to the hoop, the main source of the offense's woes, but if they want to exploit PSU's main defensive weakness they're going to have to be in attack mode.

Hope Walton is healthier. The toe injury suffered in the Villanova game has sapped Derrick Walton's effectiveness, and without a second player who can reliably attack the basket and finish Michigan's offense is in a tailspin. Coming off two days of rest, this is probably too much to ask, but it'd be a great sign if Walton started looking more comfortable out there; Zak Irvin just isn't going to be effective as much more than a spot-up shooter at this point. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Penn State by 3.

Unless the threes start falling or Walton returns to form, KenPom's prediction feels pretty spot-on.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. BSD preview. Dylan assesses what's wrong with the offense and produces this terrifying scatterplot:

Other than Ricky Doyle, who's obviously still a work-in-progress overall, nobody is reliably finishing at the rim.