|WHAT||Michigan v. Ohio State|
Feb 27th, 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +12.5*|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
When Last We Met
The Wolverines rebounded from a tough loss at Indiana to stun the #15 Buckeyes 73-64 in Crisler Arena. Ohio State was without Evan Turner, but the Wolverines' victory still stands as one of their (few) statement wins on the year.
The Buckeyes came out hot, with Jon Diebler bombing from long range and David Lighty getting to the basket in the first half. After they shot 59.6% eFG% from the floor in the first frame, however, MIchigan put on the clamps, holding them below 34.6% eFG% shooting after the break. Offensively, Michigan was led by DeShawn Sims, who scored 28 points on just 18 shots, and added 9 rebounds. Manny Harris finished with 24 points on 16 shot attempts.
Since Last We Met
The Buckeyes payed at a high level for most of the time they were without Turner, but since he's returned, they've been a top-notch team. Turner is making a serious case for National Player of the Year, so Michigan was lucky to face the Buckeyes without him last time. Ohio State has gone 12-3 since the MIchigan game, with one of those losses coming on the road against a tough West Virginia team.
Michigan, on the other hand... wel you know what's happened. They have been switching back and forth between encouraging wins (and even some encouraging losses) and soul-crushing defeats. With back-to-back losses against Penn State and Illinois, both of which were winnable, it remains to be seen whether this Wolverine team has just packed it in for next year, or if they're willing to show some fight in the last three games of the regular season.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Penn State Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. OSU Def eFG%||249||102||OO|
|Mich Def eFG% v. OSU eFG%||206||3||OOO|
|Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%||9||66||M|
|Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%||45||30||O|
|Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%||276||41||OOO|
|Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%||235||283||M|
|Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR||340||12||OOOO|
|Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR||11||211||MMM|
|Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD||126||20||OO|
|Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO||45||14||O|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
I'll keep the comments brief, because I predict some serious pain in this game.
Michigan's ratings have been oscillating wildly all year. Currently, the offense looks as bad per game as it has in a while, but the defense has improved over the last couple games, despite losses to Illinois and Penn State. Ohio State, on the other hand, is excellent at just about everything. Michigan will have to play one of their best games of the year in order to come away with an upset.
Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening. Vegas likes the Buckeyes by 12.5 points, and Ken Pomeroy says they'll win by 12. Those numbers sound about right to me. The final margin could be a little closer than that (and certainly a lot further apart), but I don't see enough in this game to see a Michigan win being possible.