THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Not even a poor shooting night could prevent Michigan from winning the first matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Caris LeVert is pain-free, practicing, and officially in control of his return to the court:

According to Michigan coach John Beilein, LeVert has been cleared to play and is the sole decider in when or if he will return to the floor for the Wolverines.

The senior star, an All-American candidate prior to injury his lower left leg in late December, is pain-free and still gradually returning to form.

"This is his call," Beilein said Tuesday. "This isn't my call. We'll see what he feels like after today's practice — how much he can go."

While LeVert could potentially return tonight, there's reason to believe he should wait a little longer; Beilein said LeVert has just worked his way up to an hour of practicing and he's yet to go 100% in a full-court setting. If he plays, it'll be in a limited role as he works his way back into game shape.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan beat Minnesota 74-69 a few weeks ago in Crisler in a strange and uninspiring performance. The Wolverines jumped out to a big first-half lead, then went ice-cold from the field and allowed the Gophers to cut the deficit to as little as three points in the second half; despite this, Michigan's win probability on KenPom never dropped below 90%—in large part because Minnesota is bad, but the Wolverines controlled the game and simply couldn't knock down open looks. They won anyway. Minnesota is bad.

THE STAKES

Have I mentioned Minnesota is bad? They are bad. As such, this is a must-win game for a Michigan squad that needs to win at least three of their last seven regular-season games to feel half-decent about their NCAA Tournament chances—and four if they don't want to be under serious pressure in the Big Ten Tournament. Tonight's game is one of only two in which Michigan is outright favored; the other is February 24th against Northwestern. Those two are must-haves, and then the Wolverines have to defend home court against Purdue on Saturday or put themselves in the position of needing a tough road win or an upset in the finale against Iowa.

This game also has stakes beyond Michigan's postseason outlook. This is for history.

Real possibility there's an upcoming game between teams that are a combined 0-28 in league play. Can't be much precedent for that.

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) February 9, 2016

Please don't screw this up. Yes, Minnesota-Rutgers could be a special kind of historic.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

While the Gophers have had a few competitive games since they came to Crisler, including an overtime loss to Illinois and tighter-than-expected contests with Purdue and Indiana, they're still winless in the conference and more than capable of looking awful—they lost by 24 at Northwestern in their most recent game.

Not a whole lot has chanced since the first matchup, so you can find more detail in that game preview.

The Gophers continue to bring their best offensive player, stretch four Joey King, off the bench, and while he's playing close to starter-level minutes he's been held to five points or fewer in four of the last five games—that includes a three-point, four-foul output against Michigan. Freshman Ahmad Gilbert, who originally supplanted King in the starting five before suffering a dislocated finger, is expected back after missing the first game between these two teams. He's a Just A Shooter™ type making only 24% of his three-pointers.

Point guard Nate Mason will be the focus of Michigan's defensive efforts after he slashed his way inside time and again on his way to 24 points (8/12 2P, 1/4 3P, 6/6 FT) in the first matchup. If Derrick Walton struggles to stay in front of him again, Michigan may be better off defending him with Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and sticking Walton on one of Minnesota's underwhelming two-guards.

The Gophers have struggled to find a reliable threat to join Mason in the backcourt. Current starter Dupree McBrayer is 6/38 from downtown this season and not faring much better inside the arc (35%), though he does get to the line at a high rate. Senior Carlos Morris is posting 42/31/69 shooting splits in Big Ten games with an elevated turnover rate and has seen his playing time decrease as a result. Freshman Kevin Dorsey, like McBrayer, is 6/38 on three-pointers this year with a high free-throw rate. All three have O-Ratings languishing in the 80s, which is bad; Michigan doesn't have a single player below 100.

Forward Jordan Murphy was productive in the first game, scoring 13 (5/9 2P, 1/2 3P), pulling in eight boards (two offensive), and recording three blocks, but he also got hit with four fouls. He can be a handful down low; he'll also have his hands full on the other end—when Bakary Konate is on the floor, he'll have to stay in front of Zak Irvin, and when he slides over to center he's at a distinct size disadvantage at 6'6", 230.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

The Gophers are in front of only Rutgers in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. They're being outscored by 0.18 points per possession in conference play, which over the course of their average 67-possession game puts them easily into a double-digit hole.

The Minnesota offense is almost entirely reliant on getting to the line; foul avoidance is something Michigan does quite well. The defense has been horrendous, allowing B1G opponents to make 55% of their twos. If they don't force turnovers they're in deep trouble; they're only mediocre at generating those and Michigan is excellent at avoiding them.

THE KEYS

Attack the basket. Michigan won the first game because they overcame a bad shooting night both inside and outside the arc by getting to the line, where they went 19/23 (11/12 by Derrick Walton alone). Minnesota has a terrible two-point defense; Michigan should be able to both produce easy points and open up the perimeter by working the high screen and attacking off the dribble.

Stay in front of Mason. Mason almost single-handedly kept Minnesota within striking distance the first time around; Walton couldn't cut off his drives and the help usually arrived late. If Walton has a similar performance—and who knows if he will given the up-and-down nature of his on-ball defense this season—then I'd like to see Rahk get a chance at defending Mason; it shouldn't be hard for Michigan to hide a defender on whomever is playing the two.

Make open threes, please. This is mostly for my own peace of mind, as Michigan showed they can beat Minnesota even when clanking a bunch of open perimeter looks off the rim. That wasn't very fun, however, and it made for a closer game than it should've been. The Wolverines have a great chance to get back on track from beyond the arc in this game—while Minnesota has a statistically solid perimeter defense, it doesn't pass the eye test—and it'd be great if they did so before hitting a tough and crucial final stretch.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

Losing this would be close to a death knell for Michigan's tournament chances. The good news is that's because Minnesota is so bad that even a slumping Michigan squad is fully expected to handle this one. Whether or not LeVert returns, this is a great opportunity for the Wolverines to get it going again, and I expect them to take out last week's frustrations on the Gophers.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.