Preview: Kansas

Submitted by Tim on December 18th, 2009 at 3:27 PM

The EssentialsKU.gif

WHAT Michigan v. Kansas
WHERE Lawrence, KS
WHEN 12:00PM EST

December 19th, 2009
THE LINE Michigan +13.5*
TELEVISION ESPN

*Lines brought to you by the best sportsbook on the internet.

Michigan

The Wolverines finally stopped the bleeding on Sunday with a win over Detroit, but the task won't be so simple to duplicate in Lawrence. Traveling to face the number one team on the road is seen by the Wolverines as an opportunity. "I don't think it's different from the UConn trip [last year]," said DeShawn Sims, "We definitely need it. There's not going to be too many opportunities besides the best teams in the Big Ten."

A win Saturday would not only redeem a lackluster non-conference performance from the Wolverines, it would also prove something to the team itself. "It would just show that we've made some adjustments since the early part of the season," said Sims, "We're becoming more comfortable with what we have now, and coach made some great adjustments this week and last week. We're just finally coming along, coming around the corner."

Beilein, whose teams have performed their best when they have a lot of time to prepare for a single game, says he doesn't change anything in the team's preparation: "We do the same thing that we've done for any game we ever play, really. We don't go in there to do anything except to do our best. Whether we're playing one of our early season games or we're playing the #1 team in the country, we just expect to try to play our best."

What, specifically have the Wolverines been working on in practice over the long week? "We've been working on a lot of different things. A lot of man-to-man defense, a lot of boxing out," said Beilein.

The return of a fully healthy Zack Novak, who played against Detroit at less than 100% and missed the Utah game entirely, should be some help to Michigan.

Kansas

The Jayhawks are the number one team in the nation for a reason. They've run roughshod over every team they've played except for Memphis and, oddly, UCLA. "There's certain times when you'll go into some of these arenas, and I would expect I'll look around and go, 'so this is Kansas,'" said Beilein said. Sims knows the crowd will play a huge factor. "I've seen Kansas on TV and you can definitely hear the crowd through the TV," he said.

The Jayhawks' roster is loaded. Two of the top players in the country, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, roam the floor in Lawrence. They get Xavier Henry a lot of good looks, helping him to one of the top eFG% numbers in the nation. "You've got the great combination of inside-outside threats," said Beilien. "You've got Collins, who by by himself can win a game. Aldrich inside, he's just a mountain with really long arms. And now Henry's shooting over 50 percent? He's getting some pretty good looks because he's got a great point guard and a great center." Adding, uh, injury to more injury, guard Brady Morningstar will make his season debut for the Jayhawks after serving a DUI suspension.

For a team struggling like the Wolverines, Kansas will be a difficult matchup. Beilein: "They rebound and they guard and they have assigned tasks and they're just difficult to stop." 

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Kansas: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Kansas Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Kansas Def eFG% 236 2 KKK
Mich Def eFG% v. Kansas eFG% 231 6 KKK
Mich TO% v. Kansas Def TO%
4 68 M
Mich Def TO% v. Kansas TO% 36 18 K
Mich OReb% v. Kansas DReb%
234 136 K
Mich DReb% v. Kansas OReb% 319 10 KKKK
Mich FTR v. Kansas Opp FTR
277 94 KK
Mich Opp FTR v. Kansas FTR
3 107 MM
Mich AdjO v. Kansas AdjD 156 6 KK
Mich AdjD v. Kansas AdjO 153 2 KK

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc. I swear I'm not a Klan member.

Commence the fetal position and whimpering. Kansas is better than Michigan at almost everything. The Wolverines might get a couple turnovers, but they haven't had to defend a player like Cole Aldrich yet, and the opponent free throws might be misleading in this instance. Michigan's worst aspect, defensive rebounding, is one place Kansas really excels. This is a major statistical mismatch.

The only way to see Michigan coming away with a win is to make a couple assumptions. 1) Michigan has been playing well below their potential this season (something most observers would agree with). 2) Michigan is capable of turning around and playing well above that potential in a road game against the top team in the country.

Zack Novak thinks that's a possibility, saying "It's gotta bring the best out of you. We're looking forward to the challenge." There's something to be said for a John Beilein-coached team playing very well with a long break between games to rest up (Manny Harris didn't practice on Wednesday, according to Beilein) and prepare a gameplan. Still, the task may be too tall to accomplish.

This is a game that Michigan should be lucky to keep close. If the 3s start falling, like they did in last year's upsets over UCLA and Duke, there's a chance to be within striking distance in the second half. More likely, the team has a couple of those offensive slumps that we've come to know and despise and the Jayhawks capitalize with big runs and an eventual 20-point win.

Elsewhere

UMHoops talks to David Merritt and Kansas blog The Jayhawker about the upcoming game.Ann Arbor.com's Jeff Arnold talks about Michigan's turnaround project that starts with the Kansas game.

Also, not Kansas-related, but 2010 MI SG Trey Zeigler talked to WDFN yesterday about various topics, including his recruitment. If Manny leaves following this season, Zeigler becomes a must-land prospect. Duke is getting involved.

Comments

jamiemac

December 18th, 2009 at 4:12 PM ^

Wow, just -13.5.....none of the places I use have lines up yet for tomorrow, and I was sure it would be closer to 20 points than 10 points. We'll see.

Like I said in the other thread: the longer Michigan keeps the Rockhalk Jayhawk chant from happening, the bigger the morale victory for the boys.

Also, there's plenty of other big hoop games tomorrow to keep an eye as the schedule has great matchups all day and night. So much that it demanded a Bubble News post at the JCB.

Gulo Gulo Luscus

December 18th, 2009 at 4:52 PM ^

13.5 does seem low given our performance thus far. On Saturdays this fall I looked forward to this big Saturday tilt for hoops. It was all in vain. At least UNC/Texas and Gonzaga/Duke should be good enough to forget the horror that will be Allen Fieldhouse.

gpsimms not to…

December 18th, 2009 at 5:00 PM ^

http://michigan.scout.com/2/930118.html

Q: Is it kind of like the UCONN trip from last year? It presents an opportunity for you guys to make some noise against a good team?

A:“Definitely. I don’t think it is *no* different than the UCONN trip. We had some pretty big wins before and up until that point, but Kansas being number one is a good opportunity for us.”

Emphasis mine. I actually do not think this is a case of Peedi overusing the word "no" like so many kids do. I think he is saying last year we had already gotten some confidence and some big wins going into to UConn. So, although they are similar situations, going into Kansas is a little different because we haven't played as much good basketball up until this point.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that is the way I read the scout transcript.

GoBlueKC

December 18th, 2009 at 5:50 PM ^

One of the few things we have going for us is that the students at KU are finished with the semester. Compared to how loud Allen Fieldhouse can get with a full complement of 'lubricated' fans, tomorrow should not be too bad of an atmosphere.

The KC alumni club scored some seats so there should be about 30 of us in a group. Rumors are that the Denver and Omaha groups will be making the trip as well.

SysMark

December 19th, 2009 at 11:35 AM ^

Like others I was surprised the line was only 13.5. Let's hope this is the day Kansas comes out flat and a lot of 3s start falling for us. That's the ticket to keep it close and have a chance to steal it. 3s and free throws must fall.