Essentials

Overview

I was going to call Illinois "Big Ten West Rutgers" but then Rutgers went and did this:

Since last week, Raheem Blackshear and Artur Sitkowski have announced they are going to redshirt (presumably with the intention to transfer), and Texas Tech grad transfer McLane Carter medically retired. This leaves Rutgers with two scholarship quarterbacks: redshirt freshman and Boston College transfer Johnny Langan, and true freshman Cole Snyder. SP+ has Rutgers as a pick'em against Liberty, a two-touchdown-ish underdog to Illinois, and a "go home and get your shine box" against everyone else.

So no, they're not quite. But close, especially when Illinois top two quarterbacks are incapacitated and the guy left over is inducing despair in what must be a fairly despair-resistant fanbase.

One of these days Illinois is going to pay off for the bizarrely numerous internet content persons dedicated to their football program. Saturday will not be that day.

[Hit THE JUMP for come with me on a Beard Journey]

Run Offense vs Illinois

Defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson resigned for health reasons midway through last year, a couple of days after Illinois gave up 712 yards of offense against Maryland. In February, Lovie Smith replaced him with… Lovie Smith. Smith may be right that he couldn't convince anyone with prospects to come to Illinois to take over stomped-flat unit, but that says it all.

Illinois actually got off to a good start as a run defense, holding Akron and Connecticut to miniscule numbers. 4.1 YPC allowed against Eastern Michigan was a warning sign, though, and their last two outings have been eviscerations by Nebraska (346 yards, 5.4 YPC) and Minnesota (332 yards, 6.4 YPC). Seth surveyed the carnage wrought by the Gophers:

I mean...

And it's not like all this hard-chargin' is helping them against the run anyway. All they're doing by moving more guys to the line of scrimmage is removing whoever could be there to help when the DEs forget to set an edge.

So they're not good. But in addition to Beard, Illinois has some other things going for them: names. Ayo Shogbonyo—say it aloud— is one defensive end. Oluwole Betiku—say it aloud—is the other. They've got a Milo Eifler and Tymir Oliver. And of course, the man who committed to an obviously fired Brady Hoke literally during the press conference when Michigan fired Dave Brandon: Dele Harding. These are some mellifluous motherfuckers.

Can they defense? No, not really. Seth has been posting screenshots of Illinois linebackers doing things he wants to scream about for weeks in Slack. "Why are you doing this?" we ask, and Seth just says "will you LOOK at this," and we say "shouldn't you be spending time on teams like Penn State or Michigan State or, you know, with your family" and Seth just quivers. Probably. I can't see him when this happens. Pretty sure though.

Anyway. Betiku is a former five star and USC transfer who racked up a ton of sacks against Akron and Connecticut but hasn't done much since; Shogbonyo is an injury fill-in for Bobby Roundtree, who is actually good. Shogbonyo is a converted LB trying to make it at WDE at 240; it's not going so hot. PFF does like LB Jake Hansen, but Seth's viewing of him was not encouraging.

So if Michigan can't crank out some big plays against these guys it might be time to walk into the sea. Yes, even though the threat level Illinois provides is low enough that we shouldn't expect Michigan to do much with Patterson. At some point you've got to get a run longer than eight yards against a very horrible defense even if your QB isn't involved.

KEY MATCHUP: A STICK vs POKING THE RUN GAME. Hey. Do something.

Pass Offense vs Illinois

The run defense started good and became horrible; the pass defense has been stuck on Are You Reading That Right ever since the Akron game. UConn: 8.9 YPA. EMU: 8.8 YPA. Nebraska: 9.6 YPA. Minnesota: 9.1 YPA. After 11 sacks in the first two games Illinois has four in the last three.

SP+ has these offenses #126, #91, #34, and… uh… #14. (Minnesota is 50 spots higher than Michigan in SP+ offense, I am going to walk into the sea.) It's impressive that no matter who or what Illinois plays that isn't Akron they will cede approximately nine yards an attempt. Yeah. That's the ticket.

Like a lot of teams who don't do anything well, Illinois tries a lot of different stuff just in case one of them works. This may be a problem for Patterson, who's had issues finding WRs quickly, but the Illinois tendency to blitzball their linebackers as soon as anyone whispers about a potential run will offset that; Illinois has also struggled to get any pressure from their DL after Betiku's six sacks in the first two games and has amped up blitzing, with little to show for it except a Hansen sack-strip that Illinois returned for a TD against the Gophers.

Michigan's max-pro, let's-send-a-TE-on-a-journey-across-space-and-time routes that worked so well against Rutgers should be in play again here. Seth also caught a few giant busts from safety Delano Ware—who was supposed to be their spacebacker until personnel matters in the secondary intervened. This projects as the kind of game where Michigan's OL puts up a 90% protection metric and Patterson fires his darts in when guys are wide open or he's given the acres of space Rutgers provided.

KEY MATCHUP: A SCREEN THAT WORKS vs JUST ONE, I'M BEGGING YOU. I'll take trundling in a building at this point.

Run Defense vs Illinois

This will actually be a matter of some intrigue. Probably not for the outcome of this game, but for Michigan's ability to defend a spread option system in their much more zone-heavy 2019 defense. Illinois had a top-ten SP+ rush offense a year ago that was efficient and explosive. That was in part because transfer QB AJ Bush put up 6.8 YPC on 123 carries. His 831 rushing yards opened things up for the explosive Reggie Corbin, a guy who you absolutely do not want to meet in space:

Corbin's top attribute is his change of direction. In fact, it's pretty damn elite. At first, you think that his mentality to make everyone miss is going to be a downfall, but it rarely is at this level of competition, and the reason why is because he's that good at setting defenders up and making them wish they stayed home sick that game.

At first I thought, "okay, so he's literally The Flash when moving laterally, but I bet the reason I haven't heard of him is because his home run speed isn't as good." It's not as good, but it is certainly good enough to pair with his agility, especially at his size.

Corbin put up an astounding 8.5 YPC last year on good volume (128 carries).

The loss of Bush has coincided with a step back despite Corbin and three OL returning and Illinois plugging in an Alabama grad transfer at one of the open guard spots. Corbin's shed two yards a carry; this leaves him at a still-excellent 6.6, but there's a difference between Corbin putting that number up after Big Ten season and Corbin just a couple games into this one. Minnesota bottled him up decently, holding him to 68 yards on 14 carries. That's 4.9 a pop, and the absence of Peters drawing added defensive attention to Corbin is a major reason

Michigan will get a different kind of test here—QB Matt Robinson has approximately Patterson-level mobility and is going to run because he has a Patterson-in-ninth-grade-level arm; Corbin's going to get some creases and the back seven is going to have to make some tackles against a tricky customer.

Note that Dre Brown has also been productive (5.9 YPC) and Michigan should expect to see guys other than Corbin, who is not a bell-cow sort of back.

KEY MATCHUP: TACKLING IN SPACE vs YIKES THAT GUY IS A BLIP. This is a real test, and will be an indicator of how things will go against Penn State, Indiana, and Ohio State.

Pass Defense vs Illinois

Brandon Peters left last week's game with an injury; freshman Isaiah Williams did not make the trip to Minnesota. That left redshirt freshman Matt Robinson as Illinois's backup option. Robinson is a walking repudiation of the idea of a two star. He ranked #2236 on the composite in 2018, below guys going to William & Mary and Bethune-Cookman. He was a three star, at least on the composite. 24/7's ranking, also in the 2000+ range, had the cojones to stick with two.

Anyway, this is probably the most interesting thing about the Illinois passing game this week. Robinson is probably going to get the nod again per reporters covering the team…

Not a surprise here, but I expect Matt Robinson to start at quarterback against Michigan for @IlliniFootball. @UMichFootball #MGoBlue Asmussen | Robinson has earned UI’s trust https://t.co/WRhr6ak2Po via @news_gazette

— Bob Asmussen (@BobAsmussen) October 8, 2019

…and now we get to find out what it's like to play against Nick Sheridan. Robinson completed 15 of 29 passes for 125 yards against the Gophers, and as arms go he definitely has two of them. Seth:

Robinson is too short to see over the big linemen around him, so he hop-passes. He also sometimes trusts his arm to zing a ball into a guy he thinks is open without bothering to see where a linebacker is. His arm, as you've gathered by now, should not be trusted so.

His DSR from the Minnesota game was 41%. Translated into human language that's "yikes." Watching Robinson throw outs to the field is an exercise in expecting a cornerback to step in front of it for a pick six every time.

The usual squawking about how the rest of the offense needs to step up and help the struggling quarterback—you may have heard some of that locally this week—is more reasonable coming out of Champaign, mostly because WR Ricky Smalling has evolved into a football version of Isaiah Washington, the now-departed Minnesota point guard who set new standards for a miraculous combination of playing time (about a third of Minnesota's minutes) and efficiency (shot 36/21 with a 20 TO rate!).

Smalling appears to be editioning for an Unnecessary Roughness remake. Every time your author turns on an Illinois game—which he has done far too often this season—Smalling is contriving to spike a pass into the ground. He still leads Illinois with 22 catches. This gets rapidly less impressive once you consider his catch rate (47%) and the share of targets he gets (a full third!). It's weird that Illinois doesn't target giant leapy muscle person and USC transfer Josh Imatorbhebhe more often. He's been their most efficient option, and gives the quarterbacks backup plans in case their passes are winged too high.

Bonus: Illinois has given up 15 sacks thus far to a collection of mugs.

KEY MATCHUP: WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SATURDAY vs YOUR LINGERING VESTIGES OF HUMANITY. You remember a different world, and being a different person in that world. This is not that world. In this world the only flutters of pleasure left to you are self-negating. The things… the things you've watched.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Illinois return units have been astoundingly unproductive. Last year Illinois got about 3 yards a punt return and 17(!) per kick return; this year they've cycled through three punt returners who have a six-yard average. They have gotten a little juice from Dre Brown as a kick returner; he had a couple of meaningfully long ones against UConn and Nebraska.

New kicker Chase McCourt has hit 4 of 6 attempts but that's better than it sounds since he's only had one attempt inside 40—a miss, naturally—and has hit two from 50+, including a 57-yarder when Minnesota gave him a second try by icing him at the end of the first half. It is our duty to point out every time icing the kicker backfires.

Aussie Blake Hayes returns at punter, where he's again banging punts about 45 yards a pop. He suffered a return TD last year and a total of 331 return yards because half his punts were brought back at least some distance; it's been a bit better so far but he's a guy DPJ will get a couple cracks at. Speaking of crack, here's some crack analysis:

The best case scenario for Illinois when it comes to Hayes’ usage is to see him on the field less as a punter and more in his role as holder for PATs and field goals. At least that means points are — or could be — on the board.

Is… did Hotels.com write this?

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• One of Illinois's other QBs makes it back from injury.
• The Illinois ground game is more on the Wisconsin end than the Iowa end.
• Michigan fumbles three straight times.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan's offense performs anywhere near the level Minnesota can.
• It's Shea Patterson Against Rutgers Or Rutgers-Like Object time.
• Isaiah Todd definitively squashes talk he'll play overseas.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Michigan's D Is Probably Scoring More Than The Illinois O, –1 for Nick Sheridan Vs Don Brown, –1 for A Defense In Disarray, +1 for BEARD, +1 for General Wobblies On Offense For Michigan, –1 for He's A Two Star I Need You To Admit He Is A Two Star.)

Desperate need to win level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore, +1 for I Just Want A Relaxing Time, A Suntory Time, –1 for Weirdly Committed Illinois Blogger Types Deserve A Break, +1 for Holding On To The Last Vestiges Of Hope)

Loss will cause me to… Isaiah Todd's committing when?

Win will cause me to… Isaiah Todd's committing when?

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

It's gonna be ugly, but it's gonna be about 30 times uglier for Illinois.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Illinois plays two QBs, not by choice.
• Zach Charbonnet averages five yards a carry.
• Michigan, 33-5