Well, friends, we have once again reached the end of our stupid journey together. Michigan football plays on, as do the titular Opponents, but per tradition there is no Thanksgiving Opponent Watch, so this week marks the end of the regular season. If the winds are kind and the Gods are merciful, we may come together in a couple of weeks. If not, take care of yourselves. As always, you can find me at @pontifex on Twitter until Twitter dies in a few weeks, after which you can just open your doors and shout my name loudly in the general direction of Nashville.

About Last Week

It’s sometimes easy to forget that the players we cheer for ⁠— and against ⁠— every week are real people. Maybe its because they are such astounding athletes that seem almost superhuman compared to us mere mortals. Maybe it’s because we typically only see them either on television or in front of enormous crowds, with their every movement at the center of attention for millions of people. Maybe it’s because we use sports as an outlet from the problems of the real world, where the stakes for our own lives can feel so real and urgent in the moment but without the downside of any real stakes.

Devin Chandler was a junior wide receiver from Arlington, Tennessee. He transferred to Virginia from Wisconsin last year. Lavel Davis Jr. was a junior wide receiver from Dorchester, South Carolina. He had 16 catches for 371 yards this season after working his way back from a torn ACL. D’Sean Perry was a junior linebacker from Miami, Florida. He had 7 tackles this season. He was a studio art major.

Devin Chandler, D'Sean Perry and Lavel Davis Jr

Our deepest condolences to the families and friends of the players lost at the University of Virginia. Wahoowa, gentlemen.

The Road Ahead

Illinois (7-3, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Purdue, 31-24

Recap: It wasn’t that Illinois was necessarily the best team in the Big Ten West, nor that they were somehow the most deserving team in the Big Ten West. But their rise seemed to save us from the stupid uncertainty of a Big Ten West scrum. It was like the succession process in the hereditary monarchies of old, where, sure, you knew the king’s bumbling idiot of a “that boy ain’t right” fail-son will probably be a terrible ruler, and would probably get your kingdom’s ass kicked in a couple of wars, but at least you KNEW who the next king was going to be.

Now we get aaaaall of the failingest fail-sons from all corners of the realm fighting over the crown in a two week fat guy Jello wrestling match to see who gets to be the sacrificial lamb to Michigan or Ohio State in Indianapolis. We have to care about Northwestern/Purdue and Iowa/Minnesota and Illinois/Northwestern and Purdue/Indiana. Iowa/Nebraska, rather than being a “y’all check this shit out” sicko novelty, has actual implications in the actual college football world. Thanks, Bert.

We were denied this mediocre certainty because Illinois’s vaunted defense surrendered 379 yards at 5.2 yards per play, 25 first downs, and 31 points ⁠— all season-worst numbers ⁠— to Purdue. They also racked up 121 penalty yards, including five pass interference calls and four personal fouls. Worst of all, Chase Brown had his ankle rolled under with under 30 seconds left in their game. Now, Illinois probably has to beat Michigan to have a chance at winning the West.

This team is as frightening as: Kroger brand Michigan. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Illinois’ rushing defense might be in the Goldilocks zone; just good enough to prevent Michigan from winning the game with its usual “smash smash smashy smash smash” approach, but just vulnerable enough that Michigan might try anyway.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Chase Brown was already declining statistically, and now he’s hurt. Even if he is able to play, it seems unlikely that he will be able to shoulder his usual 30 carries at anywhere near his early season production.

When they play Michigan: Cold. Very, very cold.

This week: @ Michigan, noon, ABC (Illinois +17.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Yep. Them.]

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Ohio State (10-0, 7-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 56-14

Recap: Ohio State was a 41-point favorite. Ohio State covered. So… yeah.

This team is as frightening as: /final boss music starts playing/ Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State scored 56 points and accumulated 662 yards at 9 yards per play… IN A LIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY DEADLY SNOW.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: TreVeyon Henderson is hurt. Miyan Williams got carted off the field on Saturday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has barely played this year. Starting right tackle Dawand Jones missed the Indiana game with an injury.

Ohio State doesn’t need ***all*** of their weapons to score a bunch of points. They just have too many. But you also can’t just build the entire plane out of Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is UNREAL 😳

What a grab this was by the @OhioStateFB WR 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YgNlL9akEM

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 12, 2022

I think.

When they play Michigan: Hnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggg

This week: @ Maryland, 3:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -27.5)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (2-8, 2-4 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Wyoming, 14-13

Recap: Colorado State continues to rack up the moral victories. Colorado State led through three quarters, but missed a 40-yard go-ahead field goal with 5 minutes left to come up short. The Rams outgained Wyoming by 372 yards to 236 yards (a difference of nearly 1.8 yards per play).

This week: @ Air Force, 9:00 p.m. (CSU +21)
 

Hawai’i (2-9, 1-5 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Utah State, 41-34

Recap: It took 11 games, but the Timmy Chang’s offense finally did Timmy Chang things. 541 yards at 6.7 yards per play. 235 rushing yards, 306 passing yards, 27 first downs, which were all season highs.

Unfortunately, the 4-0 turnover margin, including 3 Brayden Schager picks, doomed the Rainbow Warriors.

This week: vs. UNLV, 11:00 p.m. (Hawai’i +11)
 

UConn (6-5 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!))

Last week: Beat Liberty, 36-33

Bowl Dog, Bowl

Recap: Holy crap it actually happened. UConn ⁠— the team that hadn’t won more than 3 games in a season since 2015, was the #129 team in the country in preseason SP+, and entered the season with a Vegas win over/under of 2.5 ⁠— is bowl-eligible.

Now, that says “is bowl-eligible” and not “is headed to a bowl game” because, as an independent, UConn doesn’t have any bowl affiliations. And their appeal as an independent is less “James-Dean-Rebel-Without-a-Cause” Independent and more “James-Madison-I-am-Very-Small-And-Sickly” Independent, so they are unlikely to get much love from any bowls who have a choice between UConn and literally anyone other than UConn. They are also, despite their record, not particularly good at football. They are currently at #120 in SP+, with none of their wins coming over teams ranked in the top 90. [UPDATE: It has been brought to my attention that these numbers are incorrect, and that UConn is actually #117 and has defeated TWO teams in the top 90. I refuse to correct this mistake.] 

UConn can make that entire conversation moot by beating Army this weekend and getting to a bumfuzzling seven wins. To me, though, the important thing is that somewhere Scott Frost saw Jim Mora Jr. take one of the dozen statistically worst teams in the country mess around and end up reaching bowl eligibility in Year One. I won’t even venture a guess as to the volume at which he must have yelled “THAT F***ING GUY????????”

This week: @ Army, noon, CBSSN (UConn +10)
 

Maryland (6-4, 3-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State, 30-0

Recap: Credit to Maryland: they commit to the bit.

Lots of teams have a schtick that may or may not match actual history or performance. People talked about Clemson Clemsoning long after they’d stopped Clemsoning. “Sparty No” outlasted John L. Smith by many years. And you can’t have a single bad snap on special teams without someone @-ing Michigan fans despite Michigan’s special teams being superb for years now.

But Maryland’s reputation as the Roy McAvoy of college football is unassailable. When they’re on, they’re a force to be reckoned with. But once it turns, there is no going back. “Inflection point” doesn’t do it justice. They don’t run out of gas. The pedal gets stuck to the floorboard and the brakes fail and the steering wheel flies off and out the window.

Maryland gained 134 yards at 2.2 yards per play. They threw for 3.3 yards per pass. That Penn Stat defense that Michigan gashed for 418 rushing yards held Maryland to 60 yards at 1.6 yards per carry. In the first two months, Maryland’s worst offensive performance was 387 yards against Purdue. In the last two weeks, they put up 323 yards COMBINED.

Here’s a game-by-game chart of Maryland’s total yards, yards per play, yards per pass, passer rating, and first downs. It doesn’t matter which is which, because, buddy…

It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, go Terps.

…everything is bad. At the end of October, Maryland was ranked #25 in SP+. They’re currently at #41 and falling hard.

This week: vs. Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., ABC (Maryland +27.5)
 

Iowa (6-4, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wisconsin, 24-10

Recap: Iowa football had a plan. You know who else had a plan? Gavrilo Princip.

Tell me this dude didn’t play slot receiver for Iowa

Princip was, of course, the assassin who killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo in 1914, the spark that is generally credited with triggering the Great War. Other members of the conspiracy actively tried to kill Ferdinand, but despite wasting all of that effort and energy, they failed, and the Archduke’s car sped away. But Princip’s plan was counterintuitively brilliant. He figured, “what if I just stand here. Like, right here in front of this deli. Motionless. Not actively trying to do anything. Maybe then, enough other things will get screwed up that my target will just wander back my way and then break down right in front of me. If that happens, I think I can get this done.”

And it worked.

Iowa didn’t attempt a single thing in this game. Iowa hasn’t attempted a single thing this year. Not one. Goddamn. Thing. They’ve just stood exactly where they were, and have made no effort to improve their situation. And because of the colossal incompetence of those around them, they have been presented with a point blank shot at achieving a truly dumb victory.

Iowa gained 146 yards at under 2.2 yards per play. They gained 11 first downs. They rushed for 52 yards ON 45 GODDANG ATTEMPTS. And they won by 14 points. Because they put together scoring drives of 17, 18, and 27 yards, in addition to a pick-six.

And now we all have to reap the whirlwind of death and destruction as a result.

This week: @ Minnesota, 4:00 p.m., FOX (Iowa +2.5, O/U 32.5)
 

Indiana (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 56-14

Recap: I don’t have anything interesting to say about Indiana anymore. This is only partially my fault, as Indiana hasn’t done anything interesting since the COVID year, and doesn’t seem likely to do so in the future. They’re going to finish with three wins, which would give them a total of five over the last two seasons, none of which came over Big Ten teams. Their brief 2022 recruiting uptick ⁠— they finished #30 in the country ⁠— has been followed with a 2023 crater. Their best players are graduating. Tom Allen can’t find a good coordinator on either side of the ball to save his soul. They’re just so… Indiana.

Indiana

This week: @ Michigan State, noon, BTN (IU +10.5)
 

Penn State (8-2, 5-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Maryland, 30-0

Recap: Penn State’s “also ran” season has been upgraded to “Also Ran!” The Nittany Lions are up to #7 in SP+, #11 in the AP Poll, and #11 in the College Football Playoff rankings. A New Years Six bowl isn’t out of the question.

…

418 yards tho.

This week: @ Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (PSU -19.5)
 

Michigan State (5-5, 3-4 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 27-21

Recap: Five down. One to go.

State wouldn’t lose to Indiana… would they? Not with a Quick Lane Bowl berth on the line. They’ve come too far. They’ve not choked against too many shitty teams. I can’t see any way an Indiana team whose thing is “we’re going to gain yards through the air by sheer volume” will have success against a team that has the worst completion percentage allowed (70%) and worst passer rating allowed (163.0) in conference play. Nope. I don’t see a path.

This week: vs. Indiana, noon, BTN (MSU -10.5)
 

Rutgers (4-6, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan State, 27-21

Recap: Rutgers, man.

This will be their 8th straight season without earning a bowl berth (ignoring the fact that they got the “the called next” bid to the Gator Bowl last year at 5-7). The 7th straight season in the bottom 4 in Big Ten plan in yards per play. The 7th straight season in the bottom 2 in the Big Ten in yards per pass attempt. The 9th straight season of being in the bottom half of the Big Ten in yards per carry. The 7th year out of the last 8 in which they were in the bottom 3 in the Big Ten in scoring. The 9th straight season in the bottom 5 in scoring defense. They haven’t beaten a ranked team since they joined the Big Ten in 2014. And they have the most humorless and personally unlikeable coach in a conference that includes several outstanding candidates.

But I guess they’re better than Northwestern. So, all in all, a solid season.

This week: vs. Penn State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +19.5)
 

Nebraska (3-7, 2-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan 34-3

Recap:

The ill-advised hurdle attempt, in extreme slow motion

🎵: @Mendozalineband pic.twitter.com/UbOaKjv11e

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) November 14, 2022

This week: vs. Wisconsin, noon, ESPN (Nebraska +13)