Opponent Watch 2018: Week 1 Comment Count

BiSB

How're the hams DH? [Bryan Fuller]

About Last Week

We have met the Rock. And he is us.

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The Road Ahead

Western Michigan (0-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Lost at Syracuse, 55-42

Recap: The good news for Western Michigan is that the offense put up absolutely massive numbers. They accumulated 621 total yards, including 379 passing. The Broncs averaged 9.70 yards per play, which was the 3rd-best performance of any team in the country, behind only Nevada (who played Portland State) and Oklahoma.

The bad news was that it was almost entirely in garbage time. They fell behind 34-7, allowing 4 touchdowns and 2 field goals on their first 6 defensive drives. Despite receiving the opening kickoff, they ran exactly four offensive snaps in the entire game when the score was within one possession. Syracuse started pulling starters, and Westerndid make the game somewhat interesting, cutting the gap to 34-28 and 41-35, but both times Syracuse scored like 12 seconds later.

This team is as frightening as: People telling you how safe air travel is from a not dying 'standpoint.' Sure, they're usually right. But even if you don't actually crash, there are a lot of possible outcomes that are disagreeable on the scale from 0 to DEATH.  Michigan might win this game, but still walk out like "yeah, that could have gone better." Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: A week after surrendering a number of big shots downfield, Michigan gets a Western team that ran 4 plays of >50 yards against a Power 5 defense.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: A week after playing a defense that was good, Michigan gets a Western defense that is not good.

When they play Michigan: Dammit it would have been nice if this was Week 1.

Next week: @ Michigan, noon, FS1 (WMU +27.5)

[Hit THE JUMP for some sincere encouragement that comes off as insincere]

SMU (0-1, 0-0 AAC)

Last week: Lost at North Texas 46-23

Recap:

Horse

This team is as frightening as: You know that "would you rather face 100 duck-sized horses or one horse-sized duck" question? There is a reason that question isn't about 11 duck-sized horses. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: SMU actually outgained North Texas on a per-play basis.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: SMU was down 36-0 to North Texas.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is probably better than North Texas.

Next week: vs. TCU, 8:00 p.m., ESPN2 (SMU +22.5)

 

Nebraska (0-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Game vs. Akron cancelled due to divine wrath.

Recap: Alas, the Scott Frost Returns the Cornhuskers To Dominance thing had to be pushed back a week. For some reason, Nebraska and Akron decided not to play this football game.

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The last time lightning had this big of an impact on white people’s attempts to turn the clock to the late 20th century, Doc Brown and a DeLorean were involved. (Image source)

So now, Nebraska’s opener will be against former rival Colorado. It’s a home game, and Colorado was projected to be pretty bad, but they smacked Colorado State around last weekend, so it could be interesting.

This team is as frightening as: We have no new information here. Because lightning.  Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Getting struck by lightning. Not because Nebraska is cursed or somehow more likely to bring about electrical storms. Lightning is just scary as hell, and people should keep an eye out for it (rather than, oh, leaving tens of thousands of highly conductive human beings in a big metal bowl during a lightning storm LIKE SOME PEOPLE).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan was already fortunate to be catching Nebraska at the beginning of Year 0, and now a third of Nebraska’s pre-Michigan games have been smited.

When they play Michigan: Stay grounded. Or not. I forget.

Next week: vs. Colorado, 3:30, ABC (Neb -5.5)

Northwestern (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Purdue, 31-27

Recap: Things started off well for Northwestern. They put together solid touchdown drives on their first two drives, led by Clayton Thorson. Then Purdue scored to get the crowd into it, and Northwestern responded by… uh… replacing Clayton Thorson. With a freshman walkon. TJ Green, the son of Trent Green, played four full series, which yielded a total of three points. Thorson was coming off of an injury, true, but the whole thing was just funky.

Fortunately they built a 31-17 lead, and – in true Big Ten West fashion – decided that 31 was plenty. Their second half drives totaled 21, 9, 17, 8, 40, and 46 yards. The last drive SHOULD have given the ball back to Purdue with 2 minutes left, but Lorenzo Neal committed a personal foul penalty after 3rd and long that was so fundamentally Purdue that it earned an engineering degree and had a difficult time conversing with members of the opposite sex.

This team is as frightening as: Northwestern. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Jeremy Larkin is going to Ewing Theory the hell out of Justin Jackson. He finished with 143 and 2 TDs on 26 carries.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern needed the aforementioned dumb penalty and three really bad interceptions from Elijah Sindelar to beat Purdue by four points.

When they play Michigan: 8,000 screaming Northwestern fans. 13,000 Northwestern fans speaking at a reasonable volume. 22,000 Michigan fans. 4,000 people reading quietly.

Next week: vs. Duke, noon, ESPNU (NW-3)

Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Texas, 34-29

Recap: I condescendingly say “way to go, fellas” pretty regularly around here. But way to go fellas.

For three hours on Saturday, Maryland put aside having been through some serious crap. The added bonus was that they did so against “ranked” Texas for the second year in a row, promoting great guffaws for college football fans. The real bonus was that, unlike last year’s Texas game, Maryland got out of this one without losing a quarterback. Kasim Hill started and played most of the game and Piggy played scattered snaps, and they left the field with a combined four intact ACLs.

I'm not sure how much this moves the needle for this year. Weird opening week neutral site game, plus an 83 minute weather delay that killed some obvious Texas momentum, plus LOL early season Texas.  Still, way to go fellas.

This team is as frightening as: A turtle riding a Roomba.

Faster than you would expect for a turtle, and while it isn’t clear how the added speed helps him, it nonetheless seems like an improvement. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Jeshaun Jones. The freshman was responsible for Maryland’s first three touchdowns: one rushing, one receiving, and one passing. He is the first Maryland player to accomplish that feat this year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After jumping out to a 24-7 lead, Maryland kind of (I’m sorry) turtled (sorry so sorry I’m trying to delete it). On their last eight real drives of the game, they only moved the ball more than ten yards on two of those drives. They were outgained on a per-play basis, and only won by 5 despite a +3 turnover margin

When they play Michigan: Maryland has yet to score one of the first 28 points in any game against a Harbaugh-era Michigan team.

Next week: @ Bowling Green, 6:00, ESPN+ (Maryland -15.5)

Wisconsin (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Kentucky, 34-3

Recap: It… was fine. This isn’t the crazy fun Willie Taggart/Jeff Brohm Western Kentucky, so this was never going to be a real test. But while it was never relaly in doubt, nothing they did was really awe-inspiring. They ran for 7.2 yards per carry (excluding QB carries), but the line didn’t blow the Hilltoppers off the ball with rapturous aplomb the way you would have expected. They also allowed more of a pass rush than one would have expected. They weren’t BAD, and it wasn’t an HAVE CONCERNS performance, but it also probably didn’t look like the #4 team in the country.

This team is as frightening as: A badger riding a Roomba.

Roomba

NOTE: There is not a single image on the internet of a Badger riding a Roomba. Please accept this GIF of DJ Roomba as a consolation prize.

What while it might seem like a step forward for some species, for a Badger it raises more questions than it answers. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Jonathan Taylor. He manufactured a good chunk of his 145 yards and 8 yards per carry on his own.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Alex Hornibrook didn’t throw an interception, meaning he is already well behind his quota.

When they play Michigan: Doesn’t matter what happens because MICHIGAN STILL HASN’T BEATEN A RANKED TEAM ON THE ROAD SINCE NINETEEN DIGGITY THREE…

Next week: vs. New Mexico, noon, BTN (Wisconsin -35)

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Utah State 38-31

Recap: Early season struggles against mediocre non-conference opponents are nothing new for Michigan State. It’s practically part of the #DISRESPEKT playbook. Last year, it was Western Michigan. In 2016 it was Furman. In 2015 it was Western Michigan. In 2013 it was… Jesus, fellas, stop scheduling Western Michigan. But this one was a little different.

Utah State was a 24-ish point underdog. Sparty was never able to pull away, and actually trailed by a point with under five minutes to go. MSU scored to go up a touchdown, but Utah State got back into Spartan territory before an interception sealed the game.

Michigan State struggled all day with Utah State’s tempo. And while their corners played deep balls pretty well, they were eaten alive by slants and crossing routes. Offensively they were fine; they struggled to run the ball, and their pass blocking was questionable, but Felton Davis and Cody White made enough big plays down the field to pull their butts out of the fire.

Speaking of fires, Michigan State travels to Tempe, Arizona this weekend, where (despite the game starting at 10:30 p.m. Eastern/7:30 p.m. local), the temperature at kickoff is expected to be 102 degrees. Herm Edwards awaits. This, my friends, is appointment television.

This team is as frightening as: Yeah like any of this will matter when they face Michigan. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Joe Bachie is a dude. He made 11 tackles with 1.5 TFLs, and basically ended the game by himself:

 

P.S. please note the reply to that tweet where Jumbo Elliott offers a… uh… countermeasure

Michigan can sleep soundly about: If Michigan State doesn't get Cole Chewins back (and perhaps even if they do), Michigan's ends are gonna have a real good time.

When they play Michigan: The road team has won three in a row in this series.

Next week: @ Arizona St., 10:45 p.m., ESPN (MSU -6.5)

Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Appalachian State, 45-38 (OT)

Recap: The Gods of college football don’t keep a tally. There is no celestial ledger to be balanced. No Chucky Cheese tickets to redeem for a Ring Pop. The world unfolds as it does, not as it should.

But, fuck, y’all OWED us this one.

Penn State’s offense had a hard time cranking things up; they had about 65 total yards until their last drive of the first half. Then things got interesting:

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Penn State trailed by a touchdown late, and actually got lucky that the last few minutes unfolded the way they did. App State picked up a first down inside the fifteen yard line with under 2 minutes to go, but broke a tackle and scored a touchdown. If he goes down there, it probably works out better for the Mountaineers. Then, on the ensuing kickoff, KJ Hamler hesitated at the goal line for two full seconds and NEARLY got tackled at his own 7, but somehow returned the ball to midfield. They also survived a 4th and 2 on the ensuing tying drive, and a missed App State field goal to win it at the end of regulation.

This team is as frightening as: A team that struggled with Appalachian State in the opener. The last Big Ten team to do that finished 9-4 with two wins over top 10 teams. Hell, the last SEC team to struggle with App State also finished 9-4, and they did so despite being coached by BUTCH JONES.  Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: KJ Hamler – Speedy Eaglet himself – looks like a player. In addition to the kickoff return mentioned above, Hamler scored the tying touchdown near the end of regulation.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State gave up 28 points to a Sun Belt team. In the fourth quarter. That’s a lot of tuddies.

When they play Michigan: Joe Moorhead ain't here no more.

Next week: @ Pitt, 8:00, ABC (PSU -8.5)

Rutgers (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Texas State, 35-7

Recap: Look, the bandwagon is still open. But you know what takes up a lot of room on a bandwagon? A CANNON ON ITS WAY TO A BOWL GAME.

Sure, Texas State was projected as the 123rd-best team in the country according to S&P+, which had Rutgers as a 14 point favorite. But Rutgers was up 14-0 after TWO DRIVES. The defense didn’t allow the Texas State… Armadillos? Let’s go with Armadillos… to score a single offensive point, with the visitors’ only points coming on an interception return. In fact, Rutgers’ defense nearly outscored the ‘Dillos by themselves, scoring a touchdown on a fumble recovery and returning another fumble to the three yard line.

Sure, there are some kinks to work out. Getting held to 6.8 yards per attempt by a defense that gave up 9.0 YPA last year isn’t great. But if they get too much better, they run the risk of missing the Quick Lane Bowl entirely. And if that happens, I mean, then what was this whole thing about?

Quick Lane Bowl? You’re damn right Quick Lane Bowl.

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This team is as frightening as: A team boldly and courageously striving against all odds to read mediocrity. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers only gave up 3.05 yards per play, their best performance against an FBS team since 2013.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Texas State was the only team in the country that didn’t record an interception last year. It was the first time in at least the last decade that an FBS team went an entire season without a pick. And this was on the heels of a 3-interception 2016 season. And a 3-interception 2015 season.

Arthur Sitkowski threw three interceptions against Texas State on Saturday.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is 1-1 all time at High Point Solutions Enron Petco Dot Biz Stadium.

Next week: @ Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS)

Indiana (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat FIU, 38-28

Recap: If you look up “generic replacement-level win” in the dictionary, there is no entry. Because how do you think dictionaries work. But a ten point win over FIU is pretty damn generic.

Like Bloomington, there is absolutely nothing about this box score that makes any real impression. The QBs averaged a perfectly pedestrian 6.8 YPA. No receiver had more than 60 yards receiving, but ten guys caught passes (though between Philyor, Fryfogel, Bjorson, and Hendershot, there is a strong Bobsun Dugnutt feel to Indiana’s receiving corps). They ran for a splendidly forgettable 4.7 yards per carry. Seven Hoosiers carried the ball, but no one totaled more than 70 yards. They were favored by 12.5, and they won by 10.

At the moment, Indiana ranks #6 or #7 in the conference in total yards, total yards per play, total yards allowed, total yards allowed per play, rushing yards, yards per carry, passing yards, and yards per attempt.

This team is as frightening as: Man y’all got lucky that Michigan is The Rock because holy hell did you try hard. Fear Level = 4 (Fluorite)

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Peyton Ramsey only averaged 7.8 yards per completion on Saturday, which is a yard and a half worse than his already-mediocre 9.3 yard per completion average from last year. For comparison purposes, John O’Korn averaged 11.6 yards per completion last year. The DeBord is taking hold.

Michigan should worry about: Ramsey will complete -17% of his passes and still average 28.3 yards per completion because Michigan/Indiana refuses to bow to math.

When they play Michigan: Can you believe the game ended like that? I had never seen a fake punt in overtime before.

Next week: vs. Virginia, 7:30 p.m., BTN (IU -7)

Ohio State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Oregon State, 77-31

Recap: Ohio State was able to overcome some early miscues, and pulled away late to defeat Brett McMurphy. McMurphy scored some early points, but Ohio State responded by deciding not to care, which was eventually the difference.

This team is as frightening as: Basically the chase pack from Mad Max: Fury Road.


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The evil is a little over-the-top, and the character development is pretty one-dimensional, and they have no redeeming qualities of any kind. But there are a lot of them, and they are fast and have some cool gadgets. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: 721 yards is a lot, even for Ohio State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Oregon State scored 31 points and managed 392 yards at 6.22 yards per play, despite being (a) in the first game under new head coach and definitely-not-a-pseudonym-for-a-guy-starting-over-after-killing-a-man-in-the-desert Jonathan Smith, and (b) being Oregon State.

When they play Michigan: The whole college football world will be cheering for Michigan. So we've got THAT going for us.

Next week: vs. Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (OSU -35)

Comments

schreibee

September 6th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^

We played WHERE ND said, WHEN they said. And we play WHEN they say again next year, even at home.

That was the price to resume this series, which I'll be honest- when they canceled it seemed like a travesty, but life went on. 

I'd definitely have been for saying "Ya know what- we got plenty of tough road games already in '18. Let's look at a future season."

Oh well...

volnedan

September 7th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

Can we please stop whining about playing a real team in Week 1?  Opening on the road in Year 4 of Harbaugh era should not be an issue, unless we are playing Bama/Clemson/FSU/Auburn etc... 

Unless of course everyone if finally admitting we are a middle of the road program where 8-4 is the norm, and a 10 win season is overachieving. 

schreibee

September 6th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^

A lot of good pearls in there - but in the osu preview there were some issues:

The particular War Boy pictured did, in fact, have redeeming qualities and ended up helping the escaping Breeders.

And the idea the "whole college football World will be cheering for Michigan" was almost charmingly naive! 

If you're conditioned to hate something you don't suddenly start rooting for it because its opposition has ethical issues.  I would simply point to the current political climate as an example!

Don

September 6th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

Department of meaningless trivia:

Since the rivalry was renewed in '78, Michigan has lost 15 games to ND. 

In the games immediately following those losses to the Irish, Michigan is 11-4.

In those 15 seasons with losses to ND, Michigan has won or shared the conference title 7 times, the last time being in 2004.

In the 15 seasons with losses to ND, our record averages out to ~8-4.

Blarvey

September 6th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^

I watched a lot of the MSU game and Bachie is good but man, he tired easily. He looked gassed and I have to believe any gameplan against them will have to involve making him move laterally and work on blocking them low/redirecting  when they attack because their LBs do a good job of dropping their hips and avoiding blocks.

maize-blue

September 6th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

A punch to the groin is a correct way to counter the Bachie leap. Or take out the legs so he more concerned about not landing on his head than batting the ball.

Blue In NC

September 6th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

"The last drive SHOULD have given the ball back to Purdue with 2 minutes left, but Lorenzo Neal committed a personal foul penalty after 3rd and long that was so fundamentally Purdue that it earned an engineering degree and had a difficult time conversing with members of the opposite sex."

Got to admit I chuckled quite a bit at that one.

bronxblue

September 6th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^

I predict a whole lot of "UNACCEPTABLE" posters will disappear these next couple of weeks.  This schedule is...um...not all that challenging until we deep into fall.

Novak-blood

September 6th, 2018 at 6:32 PM ^

When they play Michigan: 8,000 screaming Northwestern fans. 13,000 Northwestern fans speaking at a reasonable volume. 22,000 Michigan fans. 4,000 people reading quietly.

That is hee-larious. And so true. Bummed I won't be there, as that particular road game is a longstanding tradition for my UM posse dating back 25 years. In fact, I sometimes wake up in the middle of the night in cold sweats hearing that godawful cat meow they play (too loudly) after a Wildcats first down. Alas, two trips to the Chicago area for Michigan football games in the same month wasn't in the cards.