About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

Rutgers (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 58-0

Recap: Little known fact: “recap” is short for “recapitulation.” And this is fitting, because Rutgers capitulated over and over again on Saturday.

They capitulated on offense, gaining 116 yards at 2.1 yards per play. They capitulated on defense, surrendering 669 yards at 7.5 yards per play (including 410 rushing yards at 7.7 YPC). They capitulated on special teams, returning 8 kickoffs for an average of 12.4 yards per return.

Rutgers is among the worst teams in the country. But we already knew this.

This team is as frightening as:

NOTE: So, last week I made a Punch-Out reference, and people demanded more. So this week, the Fear Levels are based on old-school video game enemies.

Goomba: self-explanatory. Fear Level = 1.5

Michigan should worry about: Stranger things have happened. That’s the thing you say when there’s no way this strange thing is happening, right? It’s like saying, “yeah, I probably won’t make this 80-foot putt… but remember that time that guy fired the space-torpedo into the Womp Rat-wide vent thing while dudes were shooting lasers at him? Stranger things have happened.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is #99 or worse in S&P+’s rankings for Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, and Finishing Drives. So, they start a long way from the end zone, they can’t get there quickly, they can’t get there slowly, and even if they get near it they can’t get the rest of the way.

When they play Michigan: NSFW.

This week: vs. Michigan, 7:00, ESPN2 (Michigan -28)

[AFTER THE JUMP: One of Michigan's opponents is statistically certain to go 11-1]

Illinois (1-3, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Nebraska, 31-16

Recap: It is both a good sign and a bad sign, but a 15-point loss was the most positive sign for Illinois of the season. Illinois carried a one-point lead into the fourth quarter, but after a controversial (read: bad) call on a Nebraska fourth-down conversion that probably should have been a turnover on downs, Nebraska punched it in and never really looked back.

The stat sheet is less charitable. Nebraska outplayed Illinois by most metrics, and the game probably would have been out of hand earlier were it not for turnovers and a drive that stalled way the hell backwards leading to a missed field goal. The game was also remarkably short; there were only about eight real possessions per team.

This team is as frightening as:

Mario Kart banana peel. You can easily avoid this. So… avoid it. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Bees are dying at an alarming rate.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois football.

When they play Michigan: I miss Tim Beckman. Can we bring him back for something? It doesn't even have to be football-related. In fact, it probably shouldn't be football-related. But still. 

This week: vs. Purdue, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Illinois -10.5)

Michigan State (2-2, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Indiana, 24-21 (OT)

Recap: Every now and then over the last few years, Michigan State would find itself in a tough spot against a weaker opponent, or would make a mistake at a critical point in a game, and some Twitter denizens would begin to shout “SPARTY NO.” And they would be admonished that, no, this is not “Sparty No.” You will recognize Sparty No when you see it.

I seen it.

This was vintage Sparty No.

It wasn’t that they lost. Or Indiana isn’t great, but they aren’t Rutgers, and they aren’t #CHAOSTEAM for nothing (see: last year’s Michigan/indiana game). And it wasn’t even the fact that they blew a 14-0 lead. No, what did it was the back-to-back sacks in overtime, followed by the missed field goal, followed by the leaping penalty that negated an Indiana miss.

Michigan State has much bigger problems than the relative embarrassment of blowing a game to an inferior brand. MSU is legitimately at risk of missing a bowl game. They really need to beat BYU this weekend, and they will have to do it without Raquan Williams (he’s out with an arm injury) and half of Malik McDowell (he’ll miss the first 30 minutes due to a questionable targeting penalty against Indiana).

The respekt: it fleets.

This team is as frightening as:

Johnny Cage: our most Axe Body Spray-saturated opponent. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Josiah Price is a reliable but not a fantastic receiving option, but he has also been among Michigan State’s better blockers despite being a tight end.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Price looks good by comparison for a reason: Michigan State is #107 in the country in adjusted line yards.

When they play Michigan: If you’re asking me to make a prediction, on the advice of my attorney I PLEAD THE FIF.

This week: vs. BYU, 3:30 p.m. (MSU -5.5)

Maryland (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 50-7

Recap: We discussed the possibility of a 5-0 Maryland last week, and here we are again. And while we kinda expected Maryland to win, I don’t know if we expected them to so thoroughly disembowel the Boilers. Maryland held Purdue to 10 yards rushing on 27 attempts. This included a bunch of sacks, sure – non-QB carries totaled 15 carries for 24 yards, which is technically better – but still, Purdue got nothing on the ground. Maryland, on the other hand, picked up 400 yards rushing at 8.7 yards per carry.

This team is as frightening as:

Fei Long: Makes a lot of noise, replacement-level skill but at least he’s kinda interesting. Fear Level = 4.

Michigan should worry about: Maryland is averaging nearly 6.5 yards per carry on the ground, which is second in the Big Ten.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland ain’t played nobody, and that continues this week.

When they play Michigan: If I could choose either this game or Iowa to be a road night game, at this moment I would probably choose Iowa.

This week: @ Penn State, noon, BTN (Maryland -1)

Iowa (3-2, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Northwestern, 38-31

Recap:

Northwestern, man.

Northwestern.

They lost to Western Michigan. At home.

They lost to ILLINOIS STATE. At home

…

Northwestern.

This team is as frightening as:

Wood Man: Significant plantlife emphasis, theoretically one of the boss levels but nevertheless kinda sucks. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Maybe Kirk Ferentz’s contract situation is contagious. I mean, that would be fine for Harbaugh, but what if it somehow spreads to Jim Caldwell or Brad Ausmus?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern.

When they play Michigan: Iowa could have four losses before Michigan even comes rolling into town.

This week: @ Minnesota, noon, ESPN2 (Iowa -1.5)

Indiana (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Michigan State, 24-21 (OT)

Recap: Finally. After nearly beating Ohio State. After nearly beating Michigan State. After nearly beating Michigan. After nearly beating Iowa. After nearly beating Duke. Indiana finally, finally did it; they finished off a big-name Big Ten opponent.

This was no fluke, either; Richard Lagow threw for 10.6 yards per attempt; Indiana outgained MSU on a per-play basis 6.5 to 5.8, and Michigan State needed a late drive to even send the game into overtime.

The good news for Indiana is that they’re right back in the bowl chase; they need to beet Purdue at home and Rutgers on the road, and then win one from Nebraska, @ Northwestern, Maryland, or Penn State (or @ Michigan or @ Ohio State, buuuuuuuut…). That’s very doable. In fact, seven or eight wins isn’t unreasonable.

This team is as frightening as:

Blinky. Alternates between OH SHIT RUN and AHAHAHAHAAAAA TAKE THAT on a moment’s notice. Fear Level = 10 then 0 then 10 then 0 then 10.

Michigan should worry about: Indiana’s defense is actually ahead of their offense in terms of S&P+ rankings. This is bad for Michigan because (a) it means Indiana is less of a tomato can on that side of the ball, and (b) it portends the End Times. The teeth shall be gnashed. The garments shall be rended (and not just because Adidas sewed them and they were stiched poorly). Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes. Volcanos. Human sacrifice. Dogs and cats living together.

Mass hysteria.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: #CHAOSTEAM is slightly less CHAOSy on the road.

When they play Michigan: Maybe Michigan will have some nose tackles this time. That would be good.

This week: @ Ohio State, 3:30, ESPN (CHAOS -14)

Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 58-0

Recap: Ohio State did not punt once in the entire game. Rutgers ended every single possession with a punt. According to our good friend The Mathlete, that hasn’t happened a single time starting in the 2003 season, and that’s only because he doesn’t have numbers going back before that.

Ohio State is good. Rutgers is not.

This team is as frightening as:

Oddjob: hard to hit, generally not fair. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: They just won a conference game 58-0. I think there are some things to worry about.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe Columbus will sink into the earth, Purdue football field-style.

When they play Michigan: Armageddon 2: Armageddon.

This week: vs. Indiana, 3:30, ESPN (OSU -29)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Hawaii (2-3, 1-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat Nevada, 38-17

Recap: Hey, a win is a win.

This week: at San Jose State, 4:30 p.m. (SJSU -3)

UCF (3-2, 1-0 AAC)

Last week: Beat East Carolina, 47-29

Recap: Hard to say who has made greater strides from ’15 to ’16 between UCF, Colorado, and Maryland. Mathematically, UCF has improved the most, because going from 0 wins in 12 games to 3 wins in 5 games is… um… /pulls out abacus… a 113% improvement. Give or take. In a weak AAC, UCF could even make a bowl game.

This week: vs. Tulane, 8:00 p.m., ESPNU (UCF -13.5)

Colorado (4-1, 2-0 PAC-12)

Last week: Beat Oregon State, 47-6

Recap: We need to have a serious conversation about Colorado. Five weeks into the season, Colorado is ranked #21 in the country. They are #31 in S&P+ and #32 in FEI. They’re #16 in the country in scoring. They’re #30 in yards per play. They’re #8 in yards per pass. They’re the tenth most efficient team in the country offensively. They’re #11 in yards per play allowed(!).

Sure, this week was only Oregon State. But they did what good teams should do to Oregon State, outgaining them 563 to 226. Steven Montez threw for 293 yards at 10.9 per pop. He’s now averaging 10.8 YPA against teams that do not wear winged helmets (and 0.0 YPA against teams that do).

It’s inescapable at this point: Colorado is some degree of good.

The only question remaining is how good they might be. So, let’s take a look at the S&P record probabilities as of today:

Hmmm…

Wait… what’s that little guy right there…

The quest for 11-1 has been joined in earnest. Colorado does not play Washington. USC and Stanford look much more tractable than they did a month ago. UCLA is at home, and they haven’t exactly lit the world on fire.

This is happening.

This week: @ USC, 4:00 p.m., PAC-12 Network (USC -4.5)

Penn State

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 29-26 (OT)

Recap: Much like Hawaii, a win is a win.

This week: vs. Maryland, noon, BTN (Maryland -1)