[Patrick Barron]

Obligatory Spring Watch Post Comment Count

Brian April 12th, 2019 at 1:18 PM

As ever:

The Gattis Effect

Obviously. Michigan was 123rd in S&P+'s "adjusted pace" stat last year. Michigan was glacial, to the point where they seemed to have no hurry-up package at all. Two minute drills were scheduled with the urgency of a panda on hammock. All twitter erupted with agony as Michigan lined up no-huddle and then waited 25 seconds to snap the ball. Multiple end-of-half drives resulted in embarrassing gaffes.

Also they ran like three RPOs. And had the #22 standard downs run rate despite having a much better passing offense than rushing offense. Protection worries may have had something to do with that, but there are ways to mitigate your issues at right tackle that include ever running a slant. Pep Hamilton got the axe after last year and found a landing place in the XFL, which hired him probably because they can pay him peanuts he next couple years as he collects checks from Michigan. Which says somethin' about somethin'.

Enter Josh Gattis, possessor of the keys and sporter of a #speedinspace hashtag. All indications are that Michigan's going to the spread check-with-me, never-huddle offense that pretty much everyone in college football uses these days. It's not going to be Chaosteam-era Indiana, but it doesn't have to be. Alabama spent large chunks of each game choking out their opponents last year and they were still 85th in tempo, only a hair worse than average. Michigan doesn't have to go light speed all the time. They do have to have it as an option.

So: check-with-me on the sideline, the ability to go tempo in certain situations, a two-minute drill that looks like they've practiced it. Check those boxes and everyone goes home happy.

[After THE JUMP: backup quarterbacks! A bonafide slot receiver!]

Donovan Jeter and Mazi Smith

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Jeter is almost the last man standing from his giant DL class [Barron]

For the first time in a long, long time Michigan enters the spring game with an established, good-ish offensive line and major questions on the DL. Reps that Jeter and Smith get against the top unit are meaningful measuring sticks. Heck, if they can do things against the second-string interior OL of Filiaga/Spanellis/Honigford that's decently encouraging since all those guys are third year players.

Donovan Jeter and Smith stand out amongst the rest of the DL crew as guys to watch. Dwumfour's injury, while likely not an issue for fall, is still severe enough to draw that weird press conference bit. He's still hurting; if he looks iffy that's probably the foot. Carlo Kemp seems to be in the incremental improvement phase of his career. And… those are the only other scholarship DTs on the roster aside from Phil Paea, who keeps bouncing between OL and DL. Yikes.

Michigan is almost certainly going to kick down one or both of Julius Welschof and Taylor Upshaw at some point but that point has not apparently come. Harbaugh's presser from about a week ago:

Julius Welschof’s made a move. He’s backing up Aidan Hutchinson right now. Taylor Upshaw’s also rising on the depth chart, and Gabe Newburg.

Michigan has split Kwity Paye and Hutchinson until the arrival of Mike Danna presumably puts both guys at anchor; Harbaugh is discussing the DEs there.

Ben Mason does exist but I'm pretty skeptical he can be an impactful player the year after a position switch as a radically undersized DT. Maybe next year.

Mike Sainristil

Michigan's skill position recruiting was extremely strange unless deposing Pep and replacing him with a modern OC was a fait accompli last summer. First they recruited Eric Gray, an emphatically spread tailback. Then they added Giles Jackson, an Oregon-style slot receiver, and George Johnson III, a quarterback in the Denard mold who Michigan plans on converting to receiver.

Gray started wobbling so Michigan picked up an on-and-off relationship with then-BC-commit Mike Sainristil, finally allowing him to commit late in the cycle. But "late" in this context is still early November, before Josh Gattis was hired, or even known to be available. Michigan's Gattis push only came after he was announced as Maryland's new OC—Harbaugh came out of left field.

So Michigan had inexplicably added three explosive waterbug types just in time for a guy who loves him some slot receiver. Sainristil is the only one of those guys already on campus, and in a depleted WR corps he's standing out as a quick, fun little bugger per various practice reports. Seeing him in action should 1) be fun and 2) be part of the Gattis Effect reveal.

Backup Quarterbacks, As Always

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looks like Navarre, runs like Denard [Bryan Fuller]

Chatter that Dylan McCaffrey has looked better than Shea Patterson this spring is almost certainly going to peter out into nothing. Returning starters with a 65% completion rate, 8 YPA, a 22-7 TD-INT ratio, and 425 rushing yards at 7.7 a pop get replaced zero percent of the time. The most McCaffrey can hope for sans injury is a trick play or two.

Even so, non-Patterson quarterbacks will be exciting to watch because McCaffrey and Joe Milton are some of the most potential-laden guys to wander into the QB room in forever. McCaffrey's arm strength was always the question with him, but no one quite understood the fact that he'd be able to outrun linebackers if he got a chance. Two years in a filled-in version of McCaffrey will be approaching a product Michigan can happily put on the field, and if that's in the ballpark of a guy with those stats when McCaffrey is a redshirt sophomore, hoo boy.

Arm strength was the last thing anyone ever worried about with Milton. A dismal high school completion percentage, and a reputation as a Navarre sort of pocket-bound guy, were the main issues. Milton didn't get as many chances as McCaffrey to demonstrate what he could do but did have a couple of weaving runs that belied his high school stats. He, too, has masive upside. We'll get our first extended look at it on Saturday.

Cam McGrone

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We have exactly one McGrone picture at present [Barron]

Devin Bush is dead, long live Devin Bush. Josh Ross is the guy who will step into Bush's shoes as the linchpin of the second level, but I've already charted a season of Josh Ross and am here to tell you he's going to be really good as long as he's not picking OL out of his teeth constantly.

The real spring intrigue is at the other spot, where Devin Gil is the guy you'd expect to step into the starting job after splitting time about 40-60 with Ross last year. Gil, however, performed significantly worse than Ross (in your author's eyes, anyway). The door might be open if anyone wants to burst through it with feathers in their mouth, baying for blood. Enter Cam McGrone, a linebacker who I still think got his massive boost in recruting hype because people drew a straight line from him to Bush. Seth:

The same insider said they’re really pushing Gil to take the next step, attacking instead of reacting, and playing faster, but added one more tidbit I found way more interesting: Cam McGrone is coming on quickly, and if he continues on his current trajectory he’ll be in the mix to start.

The highest upside version of the defense has McGrone as a frequent guest, first on passing downs and then maybe eating into Gil's time on standard downs. Since he did not enroll early or play last year this will be our first opportunity to see him in the flesh.

Comments

Chipper1221

April 12th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^

Not that this would be shown in the spring game but i think Brown needs to get creative this year. Not because of our last 2 outings but because of depth and experience. Might see some more odd man fronts this fall.

stephenrjking

April 12th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^

Between personnel moves and the disaster in Columbus, the questions about this team have completely flipped. The offense is actually loaded, assuming we have scholarship tailbacks we can put on the field. The defense is... not. 

A bad DL bodes poorly for the season; high level teams invariably have great DLs--at least, DLs that are excellent to the level that Michigan's was last year. Losing Solomon, obviously, was a crushing blow, and one has to ask questions about Harbaugh's personnel management when a key guy who is supposed to be the anchor of the line for three years (as opposed to most guys who are playing time or "issue" transfers) lights off for greener pastures. Michigan has the capability of playing 3-3 stack, but they couldn't defend the run with it even when they had guys like Gary, Mone, and Bush staring down opposing blockers, so I don't see that as a realistic option.

There's an awful lot hanging on Gattis here. He has at least a couple of excellent QBs, a receiver corps that is absolutely loaded, a veteran and talented (!) offensive line, and a mandate to mold the offense in his own image. Michigan is not going to lock down good offensive teams this year. The ability to put teams away on offense early will be huge.

*btw Alabama's tempo is average and they barely ran more plays per game than Michigan, but much of that is due to them calling off the dogs at halftime of virtually every game. In first halves, when the games were "competitive" and Alabama was trying everything, they ran boatloads of plays on boatloads of drives; their typical performance last year featured 7 or 8 drives in the first half, 20 first downs, and 35-45 plays on offense. 

Gentleman Squirrels

April 12th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^

Michigan’s DT recruiting has been particularly poor in the past couple years but extraneous factors haven’t helped. Solomon was supposed to lead the pack this year. If Jeter hadn’t been injured last year he would be an experienced backup as well. DIB transferring and Hudson’s move to OL and then transferring really depleted the depth. And Paea not staying in one spot hasn’t helped his development. Michigan should have added at least one DT in 2018 to help with depth. Instead we recruited SDEs with the hope that one or two of Upshaw, Welschof, and Hutchinson move over. I think Upshaw eventually becomes that player but that’s a 3 year plan. Getting Mazi and Hinton helps a lot but I expect our DTs will struggle this year and will do better next year with some experience. I think Mike Morris is also a future DT so that should help depth too. Not sure what Michigan’s board looks like right now but I hope we recruit a couple DTs in this cycle.

DrMantisToboggan

April 12th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^

Known good starting QBs on the schedule in 2019: Ian Book. That’s it.

Fields might be good.

Stephens might be good.

Mertz might be good...in a year or two.

However, the only known commodity is Book. We are getting a relatively good opposing offense schedule this year for this defense of ours.

stephenrjking

April 12th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^

I didn't see it's Harbaugh's fault. I said that questions need to be asked. This coaching administration has shown signs that there are certain players with whom communication has not been optimal. Guys are going to leave, and sometimes unexpectedly, but when guys like Hudson and Solomon and even Wilton Speight blindside the staff by leaving, it's worth asking if there is something that could be done better. 

rc15

April 12th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^

Was Speight a blindside? I wouldn't lump him in with the other two. That seemed like a honest conversation between him and Harbaugh that Patterson would start over him and they'd probably go with the younger McCaffrey over him if there was an injury.

The fact that Harbaugh let him come back for the pro day kind of confirms there's no bad blood there.

Mr Miggle

April 12th, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^

Michigan didn't have Patterson when Speight left. In fact, there were reports they weren't even recruiting him at the time.

Speight made it clear he didn't like having to win a competition to be named the starter in 2017. He wasn't going to like it in 2018 either, when he would have to beat out Peters and McCaffrey.

 

CalifExile

April 12th, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^

I wouldn't put Speight in the same category as the other 2. WS faced a high likelihood that he would lose his starting position. Once that happened it was likely that other players would get the snaps that go to the next man up because they would be back the next year and WS wouldn't be back. That's essentially what happened to Peters this year. Milton got snaps ahead of BP because JM will be here next year (this upcoming season) and few people doubt that BP will be transferring.

Other departures have similar reasons for occurring when we learn the background: Evans has academic issues. Deron Irving-Bey's departure was puzzling but is understandable now that he is academically ineligible at CMU.

Right now only the Solomon and Hudson departures seem strange. Maybe we'll find that there are good reasons they left. There has been speculation that Hudson felt he had been passed by Stueber (and, possibly, Mayfield.) That would be an understandable reason for him to leave. It would mean that he was a guy who left for playing time, a common and understandable reason.

That leaves Solomon. I don't think one mysterious departure warrants the expenditure of time on questioning whether Harbaugh needs to work on his communications with his players. (I acknowledge your correction of my question).

JPC

April 12th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^

Both Hudson and Solomon were "speculated" to have left due to the way Harbaugh handles injured players returning to the lineup. 

It seems reasonable to argue if that was indeed the reason, but there's absolutely no ambiguity around the speculated reason for those two. 

Wolverine 73

April 12th, 2019 at 4:41 PM ^

Since we don’t know why Solomon left, it seems unwarranted to infer it has something to do with Harbaugh’s handling of him.  Solomon is the guy who committed, decommitted, threw in a “fuck Michigan” at some point, recommitted, and then transferred.  If anything, that suggests the problem may have been Solomon’s inability to stick with a commitment when things were not precisely to his liking.

CityOfKlompton

April 12th, 2019 at 9:26 PM ^

I agree questions need to be asked, and while I'm not trying to be an apologist for the coaching staff here, I also sense Solomon was not the most stable individual. I get we are talking about kids here and losing Solomon is a blow, but he was all over the place during his recruitment, and even some while he was in AA. 

"I'm coming. Wait, an administrative error occurred, I'm not coming. Fuck Michigan. Ok I'm coming now! [injuries], [cryptic tweets], I'm leaving. Fuck Michigan. [more cryptic tweets], TENNESSEE!!"

Bodogblog

April 12th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^

He doesn't know, no one does.  It's the same "NO EXCUSES" refrain we hear over and over again.  Solomon could have left for any number of reasons, and Harbaugh may have done everything humanly possible to keep him here.  But he left, and "THAT'S ALL THAT MATTERS" is what will be shouted in critiques. 

I thought I saw someone suggest here that he'd fallen behind pace in school, and despite all the support system around him, couldn't get back on track.  But that's a rumor of a rumor, and I wouldn't lend any credence to it.  I only mention in case someone else had read the same and can confirm or deny.  

DrMantisToboggan

April 12th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^

I don’t know that Paye and Hutchinson both end up at Anchor once Danna arrives. You can’t keep one of those two off the field this year, and with Uche still not being a full time DE, we’d be best with Hutch at Anchor and Paye at End, IMO.

Move could happen, but I wouldn’t assume it. 

rockyblue

April 12th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^

Concerned that first year offensive scheme that is more up tempo will expose our DL depth even more?  This was a major issue with RichRod in his first couple years.

Jota09

April 12th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^

Rich Rod's defenses had issues because he kept hiring coordinators with no experience running a 3-3-5 and surrounding them with a coaching staff that couldn't teach anything but a 3-3-5.  His first year the defense wasn't that bad until the mutiny during the bye week had us running a 3-3-5 against Purdue.  It was the offense that sucked.  That dynamic flipped the following year.  It was obvious that an organized and well coached Michigan defense would have been fine during the Rich Rod years just because that is what we got under Mattison.  He did fine with Rich Rod's players.  If Rich Rod had stayed, the defense would have only gotten worse, if thats possible, because his recruiting was terrible.  Terrible recruiting, bad coaching, and complete chaos in regards to scheme are what led to his defenses being as horrendous as they were, not pace

Chicago Blue Fan

April 12th, 2019 at 11:20 PM ^

I believe that was the Purdue team that put 40+ on us with a 3rd string QB who had never started a game before. Possibly the worst defensive performance ever.

Or maybe it was when Wisconsin ran it 29 straight times and we couldn't do anything about it.

But Rich Rocket Scientist failed because Carr didn't give him a big hug when he got to AA.

Wolverine 73

April 12th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^

Really hoping McGrone or even Anthony takes a big step forward, and becomes a quasi-starter.  Gill rarely seemed to make big plays last year, and it is pretty late in the game to expect a big jump from him as a senior who has played a lot.  

DoubleB

April 13th, 2019 at 8:20 AM ^

I don't get the Shea Patterson is too good to be overtaken by McCaffrey belief or even the Shea Patterson is great period. His stats are very similar to Feleipe Franks (outside of completion percentage) who I don't think anybody thinks is an excellent college QB.

He threw for 200 yards per game which is the definition of a game manager type. In the 3 games he threw more than 30 passes, games in which the team needed the passing game, Michigan lost. In those games he was 64-100 for 650 yards (6.5 ypa) with 4 TDs and 4 INTs, not exactly setting the world on fire.

He's a huge step up from the QB dumpster fire of 2017 and there are a lot of caveats to this: the offensive system itself, 1st year in a new system, etc. But I'll ask this: how many games did Michigan win because Shea Patterson was under center as opposed to Dylan McCaffrey or any other above average FBS college QB? 

DeepBlueC

April 13th, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^

Hurts and Bryant both had very good years for Alabama and Clemson, and took their teams to the playoffs, and both got replaced by even better players.  It's not that Patterson is too good to lose his job, or that McCaffrey can't be good enough to beat him out.  It's that Harbaugh is too conservative to make a bold move like that.  He'll let Patterson play out his string, even if he's just pretty good.

DeepBlueC

April 13th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^

I still yawn when I read phrases like "explosive waterbug types".  When was the last time Michigan EVER made effective use of a guy like that?  Yeah, yeah, I know...THIS time will be different.  THIS new offensive coordinator is going to make it more exciting.  Just like our last dozen offensive coordinators..who didn't in the end.