The midday sun shone, but its light was blocked by two A-gap blitzers. Leaning away from them to buy a crucial inch, the ball was launched out of danger, and found its intended mark. Secured again, it moved North one yard, then spun towards the sideline, and traveled 69 yards south along the Olentangy.

A man in white, followed by a man in red, exits the scene. The ball is heaved. The camera pans. The man in red is gone.

Two receivers crashed, one falling to the turf. But one still stood, and had just one defender. That guy decided to jump outside. The standing man turned up instead.

Twice they'd tried from conversion range, twice they were denied. So near the goal line, the normal QB running tricks were not going to cut it. But there was still one way to even up the numbers.

A year ago they were in the same position, and were just shoved down the field. A new coordinator had new ideas. Three men on the line of scrimmage. Linebackers shooting into every gap. What kind of blocker could sift through such chaos?

Third and three, time precious, and a safety was a luxury they could no longer afford. There was one man for every gap, and two extra. Those two took the guy handing off. Two more lost to good blocks. There was no safety.

This week I thought I'd use this space to talk about Michigan's six touchdowns. Each one showed something different about Ohio State's high-risk defensive game plan, and what it took to break through it, so this is informative, you see. I'm not just dwelling on them to commit every nuance of each moment to memory. Let's go learn something!

[After THE JUMP: The story of the game].

1. The Hot Route

Down: 3rd
Distance: 9
Quarter: 2nd
Score: Ohio State 10, Michigan 3
Expected Points at snap: 0.06

From how the first quarter went it feels lucky not to be 14-0. Whereas last year Michigan was able to shove Ohio State down the field with consistency, this new version of Ohio State, with its new defensive coordinator, would rather risk everything to not be pushed around. We've taken to calling looks like this "Exotic" because they defy labels. Certainly Michigan, at ground level, isn't going to figure out what they're up to in the next 5 seconds. Count the players though:

That's everybody. They have one safety at six yards over a tight end, and everyone else within four of the line of scrimmage. Michigan's leaving the RB in to block and has a TE leaking out under an Over Route by Wilson and Ronnie Bell clearing out the cornerback to his side. There's also a hot route planned for Cornelius Johnson if Ohio State brings a ton of pressure. They do. A ton of it. Six guys and a spy on the edge makes seven. That leaves just one defender for each of the guys running routes.

And there's some bad news for Ohio State, because one of those guys, maybe the most important one if Michigan gets their protection right, is in a dance-off with Roman Wilson. Meanwhile the one guy who was at six yards is trying to figure out if the tight end is a pass threat or if he needs to help out his nickel buddy below.

Roman's guy loses the dance-off, and falls on his butt.

That could be a big play. With the nickel on the ground there's nobody at all behind Wilson, who's the primary read pre-snap. But McCarthy isn't looking at him.

Let's go back to the last frame though and zoom out to see why McCarthy isn't throwing there.

Ohio State's pressure got through. It's a well-designed blitz, probably saved for this game since I don't remember seeing it before. Both safeties are blitzing the A gaps but Keegan is watching the WLB (#22) cross him to go into Hayes, and then keeping an eye on #33 for a late blitz. Zinter and Olu have guys lined up over them who are coming. The RB can only take one of the blitzers, and doesn't get either, really.

That's cool because Michigan has a hot route planned in case they bring a ton of pressure. In this case it's a hitch at the sticks for Cornelius Johnson. His CB, #26 Cameron Brown, has to respect the deep ball, especially against a guy with Johnson's speed, and super-especially because Ohio State has expended both of its safeties on the blitz.

That's a big ask for your cornerback, but Jim Knowles is counting on Michigan's young quarterback to panic. Those are fast safeties, and unblocked they can get upfield in quite a hurry. Also what's JJ gonna do? The kid's 3/9 for 48 yards today. Maybe it'll force a pick if he's wild.

JJ looks over to the hitch as soon as he sees the pressure, stays on platform as long as he can, then arms this off his back foot a fraction of a second before the blitzing safety can affect the throw. Johnson wasn't able to get all the way to the sticks before this came out, but he was close and makes the adjustment. The CB was expecting this play to happen at the 1st down marker and arrested his momentum there. The Edge, #33, is heading out to help.

And maybe that's what induces Cornelius to use the space he has left because he set up inside the numbers and is now on the edge of them, not at the sideline. And maybe the CB who's so focused on Johnson that he doesn't notice he has some help inside and a lot more room to the outside than he's used to against max spread teams.

It's a very bad play by the cornerback, but it's another 60 yards instead of another 10 to 20 because their coach decided getting pressure was more important than having anyone back there.

Johnson outruns this edge, who was really fast for his position. Must be a 5-star.

And as he gathers himself we see a shadow of another player that our football brains have trained us to imagine is a safety coming to help. How????

Oh, it's just you Roman.

Replay:

Ohio State fans while Michigan pounded them pic.twitter.com/1bcRDU2ToR

— Richard (Not Down Bad Right Now) (@umichwolverine1) November 27, 2022

Things: This is pretty simple to break down: Ohio State played without a safety net because they figured at worst this was going to be completed and wrangled down at the sticks. The guy falling on his butt didn't even hurt them unless you think he was getting to Johnson downfield from the opposite hash mark. Michigan didn't throw to the open guy because Johnson, not Wilson, was the hot route, and McCarthy read it right.

2. Mills

Down: 1st
Distance: 10
Quarter: 2nd
Score: Ohio State 13, Michigan 10
Expected Points at snap: 0.92

Michigan comes out in a Pistol formation, which has been a run formation most of the year, and so far in this game. The play-action is merely notional and it looks like OSU is in a 3-deep shell like that used commonly against Big XII offenses.

The coverage is meant to be disguised, as the CB over Johnson picks up Bell as he motions out to the flat and the field side safety is supposed to pick up Johnson. The boundary safety picks up Wilson when he turns in and gets in trail, with the LB dropping underneath that route AND the middle safety cutting Wilson off. The other LB is shadowing a dumpoff to Edwards.

It's an interesting switch coverage that I still don't have a name for—I've heard Aztec—but mostly functions like a Cover 3. The route combination Michigan uses against it is the Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier favorite, Mills. The trick to Mills is a post route over a dig route. The rest is frippery to draw coverage away from the high-to-medium read. If the defense does manage to cover both sides of that route combo there should be a high-low read on the field side between Ronnie Bell's fade and Donovan Edwards leaking into the flat.

Both DEs overrush so McCarthy can step up. What's interesting is the reaction of the middle safety. He's the guy that McCarthy's going to be reading for the Mills throw. That guy (on the 35 yard line by the Buckeye leaf) is sliding over to stay on top of Donovan Edwards. When I've seen coverages like this in the past I expect that guy to be getting depth. Edwards has to clear a linebacker first, so hanging so low is a gamble. If he's worried about Wilson taking his route inside I get it (that happens, after all) but a safety can defend that from a few yards of depth as well as he can from being flat on the route.

As the routes resolve the middle safety looks up Wilson and makes McCarthy's read easy. Ohio State is leaving all the room in the middle of the field to Johnson, as #13 is covering him with outside leverage. Both the boundary safety and the middle safety are bracketing Wilson, who also has a linebacker underneath his route for now. That seems excessive?

Ohio State had nobody for the middle of the field on this coverage, but I have an idea of who it was supposed to be. I think the boundary safety was supposed to hand off Wilson and get depth.

That's possible, but I read this as the intent: Ohio State thought they could get away without a middle safety because Michigan was going to be going for a flood concept and threatening Edwards up the seam. By the time Wilson clears that boundary safety he doesn't have that much time to be relevant on a post. Johnson has a full head of steam, and that safety would have to be backpedaling.

As for how he got THAT open, it was the route. Others have argued that Michigan's been misusing CJ this year because his route running is his best attribute. This play took full advantage. This was going to be open if he just ran a simple post route, but Johnson's work to sell that safety on an out route created leagues of separation.

This is also some panicked safety play. Martinez is completely turned around, not even looking when Johnson makes his cut.

Things: Again, this is pretty bad play by a defensive back. But it's also odd that Ohio State was playing without anybody taking away the deep middle. Did they thing McCarthy's deep ball accuracy was so bad that he couldn't burn them over the top even if #13 didn't run the wrong way? Maybe? Seems like a hell of a gamble.

3. Loveland Turns it Up

Down: 1st
Distance: 10
Quarter: 3rd
Score: Ohio State 20, Michigan 17
Expected Points at snap: 3.52

This one takes a little more context, because it seemed Ohio State was backing off more after the two explosives in the 1st half. They almost broke Edwards loose on this designed cutback.

Note that the safety on the hash took the tight end out of the backfield and the other two safeties swapped who gets Roman Wilson and who gets the RB. Though they changed up who drops into what spot this drive, Ohio State was always getting into a Cover 3 from a Cover 2 pre-snap look. After a quick 4th & 1 conversion and an inspiring McCarthy keeper where he bulldozed through three guys and was never tackled, we're set up in Buckeye territory.

Michigan goes with orbit motion from Bell and sells play-action to both him and Edwards. Ohio State is bringing a six-man pressure with a couple of extra dudes sucking up on the PA and then hanging out behind the blitz to capture McCarthy if he tries to escape. That leaves everyone else in Cover Zero, IE pure man with no help. The safety on the top will follow Bell all the way across well enough.

It may be Michigan is just running a Flood in response to all the Cover 3 OSU was running this drive and we can't tell because Johnson got shoved off his route. If it's a flood, Bell is the low and one of Johnson or Loveland is the mid. It's hard to tell because Johnson goes down before he can make his break.

In other words it could be this…

But I think it might actually be an option route for Loveland. That's an advanced concept for a true freshman tight end, but it also explains how Johnson got in his route, and and why he's getting pushed so far inside. In this version it's not a flood; Johnson is meant to attack the middle to draw off coverage so Loveland can get matched 1-on-1 with this safety. If the guy goes outside, Loveland turns it up; if he sits high, Loveland has all that space underneath.

It seem that OSU has it well-defended. CB #10 dominated Johnson's route, to the point that CJ trips over Loveland and goes down, unable to finish his route. That's when things go horribly wrong for OSU, as the safety covering Loveland

Unfortunately the replay only captures Loveland's legs at the critical moment when he turns inside, but you can see he's running parallel with the line of scrimmage, and that gets the safety over him to bite outside hard.

Loveland turns his route up and it's another beat before this safety turns around and notices the TE isn't where he thought he was going.

Things: This is the inherent danger when you play Cover Zero. If you're in pure man coverage, the receiver is going to have leverage somewhere. Trying to guess is dangerous most of the time and lethal when an offense has option stems planned into their routes. I can't tell you for sure that this was the plan, but it makes sense given Michigan's strategy for The Game, and what they might have talked about at half time to break out of Ohio State's mondo aggressiveness up front to stop the run.

4. McCarthy Runs It In

Down: 3rd
Distance: Goal (3)
Quarter: 4th
Score: Michigan 24, Ohio State 20
Expected Points at snap: 4.38

Finally in the 4th quarter, Ohio State stopped playing with fire, for a time, anyway. Michigan also started incorporating McCarthy's legs into the offense more, and that had the normal effect. We're going to back up and watch another play briefly because I want to make a point about the running QB and Ohio State's changing defensive approach. You've seen them bringing nine into the box and playing with nobody deep. Here they back off despite Michigan replacing a tight end with Trente Jones on the top:

Look at that! Two safeties stay high. Also the MLB (#35 on the left side of the midfield 'O') shoots outside because he's worried about McCarthy, removing himself from the play. For the first time all day there's running room!

When you get down close to the goal line however there's no more reason for the safeties to sit back. One of them almost always has the QB. We got frustrated earlier this season when Michigan was trying to zone read down at the goal line, because down there there's always going to be a safety to come after the QB on a keep. What you can do however is use your QB as a runner and turn the RB into a lead blocker. That evens up the numbers, and instead of the QB meeting a safety in the backfield after a mesh point, the QB is meeting his safety head on.

On this one they're trying to get power blocking from a lead stretch:

But the DE on the left, #44, blew up the lead blocker before he could get to the safety hanging out at the bottom of the O. Since Olu gets a reach block on the nose they still have enough blockers for everybody, except Zinter has a tough job to get down to the LB at the bottom of the T. Loveland's block on his LB is strong enough to be in the way of that guy pursuing from the backside.

JJ can wait for Keegan to block the last guy or just run over that safety himself to speed up the process, which is what he chooses.

Things: This is a perfect example of how to use your QB down near the goal line to even up the numbers. Even with Edwards taken out by a DE who's already engaged with Hayes, that helps because it created all kinds of space to run through.

5. 75 Yards Through the Heart of Ohio

Down: 1st
Distance: 10
Quarter: 4th
Score: Michigan 31, Ohio State 23
Expected Points at snap: 0.92

This one's the most interesting. Jim Knowles was brought in to fix a defense ruined by the promotion of functional idiot Kerry Coombs to DC in 2021. Last year Ohio State couldn't figure out how to block the same power runs from the base two-high system they switched to when Coombs was sidelined midseason. The score was slightly different, but the situations similar.

If the Ohio was going to avoid an existential crisis, the one thing that couldn't happen is getting blasted down the field for 6 yards a pop as Michigan ground down the clock.

Knowles's big idea for the defense in general was to be much harder to get blocked up correctly. The old OSU defense was all about having better athletes, lining up in the most advantageous positions, and winning down to down. That didn't work against Michigan last year because their athletes weren't up to it. At least not without safety help.

The new way of doing things was to use weird fronts that disguise what gap each defender is getting into. It's supposed to be hell on college linemen to ID and block correctly. The new way of doing things against Michigan is to get those safeties coming down to fill more gaps and overwhelm the blocking scheme:

This has seven men for seven gaps. It also doesn't tell you where everyone is going. Functionally it's like a slant, though only one DT actually has to go across his blocker. This theoretically should dominate any Michigan run to the TE side, like Counter or Belly, since you have DL going into the two best gaps (B gap between Keegan and Hayes, and the C gap between Hayes and Loveland). It should also be strong against a zone read since there's a safety coming after the edge you'd expect the QB to run out. And anything to the weakside should meet charging linebackers, plus a stunting off-DE (#33) surprising them in the backside A gap.

Also the safety is hanging out at 11 yards and coming down a bit because giving up a 1st down here would be a whole 'nother chunk of time taken off.

The problem with this approach is Ohio State isn't playing just some college team. Michigan's linemen are well-versed in all kinds of weird things that DL will try to do to them, and have good rules for dealing with it. For example when his DT slants away Olu doesn't follow him like you see lots of centers try to do. Oluwatimi instead finds the linebacker who's replacing and works playside of him.

So now LB #35 and standup DL #33 are both on the same side of the center. Getting tricky works if you fool the offense, but Ohio State is now in an awkward position. Not only did they not get everyone delivered to their correct gaps, but they've also expended all of their gap-attackers on throwing their faces into those gaps.

The single-high safety, who wasn't even that high, is the only guy in a position to hold this down.

He cannot.

Things: Here's where you're damned: If Michigan is going to get their blocks right now matter how much you complicate them, your attempts to surprise become a negative. But I get it: What's OSU to do? They can't put out a 4-man line with 2 LBs behind it because they'll get pushed all the way downfield. They can't bring down all the safeties or McCarthy will hit them over the top. Michigan's offense is better than Ohio State's defense. They're better at ID'ing their blocks, better at making those blocks, and better in a footrace between their one-handed backup RB and Ohio State's safety. Speaking of damned…

6. 85 Yards Through the Heart of Ohio

Down: 3rd
Distance: 3
Quarter: 4th
Score: Michigan 38, Ohio State 23
Expected Points at snap: –0.01

So I guess Ohio State can be forgiven for putting it all on the table again. It's 3rd and 3 with 3:30 left in the game at the Michigan 15, so if they can't get off the field here there isn't going to be another chance. Also everyone knows Michigan is running. The thing I can't get over however is that the Buckeyes want to use up all of their linebackers as if it's a goal line situation instead of giving themselves a chance to rally if someone makes a block. I mean…it's Michigan, the best OL in the country two years running. They're liable to make a block.

They make a block.

It's easier to see how this came off from the replay angle. Ohio State is again playing games up front, and again Michigan adjusted on the fly with simple Inside Zone blocking. What OSU wants to do is run a scrape exchange with their two safeties on the left:

This is a common way to beat zone reads, which is what OSU is sure Michigan is running from this setup because why wouldn't you involve your quarterback's legs? The plan is to have the first guy come off the edge so fast that he can tackle the RB from behind, while the other guy flies outside to replace in case the QB keeps. It should defend both sides of a zone read.

Except watch #12 as he comes in to get to the RB:

You see that little stutter step at the mesh point? That's all Edwards needs to get away from the scraper who's supposed to be coming for him.

And it was totally unnecessary! Ohio State has all these extra guys down to beat exactly this kind of play and #12 lets us off the hook by freaking out about the idea of a McCarthy keep that his buddy swinging behind is supposed to be all over.

That and JJ's quick decision on the mesh point got Michigan out of the trap laid by the scrape exchange but they still have to break downfield. That would be a combo block that will certainly make the Final Four for MGoBlog Block of the Year. You're watching Zak Zinter (#65) and Olu Oluwatimi (#55) deal with Taron Vincent, a former top-25 overall prospect.

First of all, Ohio State is gap-sound, or at least they have a plan for every gap. The one we're watching here is the one that Vincent is supposed to be guarding between Zinter and Olu.

 

Zinter is going to give that guy a shove to help Olu get around him.

Plunk.

And voila.

Zinter got it done, with plenty of time to come off and catch the WLB shooting into the B gap. Olu gets control of Vincent on the other side of him, and the LB behind them is dedicated to the gap between Hayes (#76) and Keegan (#77). Why? I don't know—they have a scrape exchange on so that LB shouldn't be so worried about a backside gap.

Vincent does fight across enough to get an arm on Edwards but he runs through it, and because OSU used up all of their safeties once again there's nowhere left to stand.

Things: Ohio Stat played with fire all day and got burned. The reason it was a day of no gains and big long TDs instead of last year's six- to ten-yard chunks was because Ohio State chose to play this way. You absolutely can do that and get away with it if you have the players, and they know what they're doing. In this example the linebacker who went backside could have figure out that the scrape exchange took away his natural backside B gap and that the DT in front of him needed assistance in the playside A gap. Vincent himself could have stood up to the double-team. The WLB could have blitzed in harder and rocked Zinter back as he was chipping Vincent. Or the guy scraping could have not stopped.

Go back through all of these and you can find examples of where a player could have prevented the TD by doing his job. This MLB could have gotten to the right gap on the other long Edwards touchdown.

 

This safety could have thrown his body into Keegan to gum up the run and give the backside defenders time to rally.

 

This safety could have stayed on top of Loveland instead of trying to cut off the less dangerous stem.

The two outside safeties on the Johnson deep ball could have communicated with their teammates, not gotten lost, and formed a bracket.

And this CB could have not missed a tackle.

However if you're going to play this aggressively against a good offense like Michigan's, you have to have guys able to do these hard things and give you a place to stand. Arguably going break-don't-bend against Michigan was a good strategy, since the randomness of low-frequency events might make up for Michigan's superior players on this side of the ball. It worked for Illinois. Michigan was just a little bit more prepared for Ohio State than Illinois.